Why the Offense Fails/Succeeds

Lots of good points on why we should temper our hopes for this season. I think for one or more of the reasons you describe we have at least one loss and then because theres at least one undefeated team, and our SOS is weak, we are edged out of the MNC game.

Despite the new faces and position switches, I think we are likely to see a net improvement in our OL play. A more balance-friendly scheme should help.

I hesitate to be too critical of the three graduated OL who all played hard and seemed to be good program guys. But, as dedi (an objective outside voice) has said, with the possible exception of Ulatoski, those three were not the kind of players usually seen in our OL rotation, let alone starting. Snow, Walters, Ashcraft, Kelly, Allen and others look more like the kind of OL Texas has traditionally put on the field. After early season adjustment, this group should come on by season’s end.

Your point re: offensive identity/coherence is big, as also noted by Scipio and LonghornScott in their practice reviews. It is GD’s biggest weakness as OC. I am hoping they stay with the new scheme even if it struggles against good opposition early (Tech, UCLA). They have the luxury of a strong enough defense to cover some growing pains.

For me it’s all about bell curves and goes back to this post by BrickHorn.

http://barkingcarnival.fantake.com/2009/10/23/piling-on/

We should always, ALWAYS, be on the right side vs. any team we play. The precipitous fall vs. OU and other stout Ds is always shameful.

Last year’s Big 12 Title Game was the latest example. I think Iowa State may have doubled us up vs. Nebraska.

“This is possibly the most talented offensive roster Texas has had depending on how many total talent points you award to the 2005 squad for Vince Young. There are multiple receivers on campus who could be close to the other great wide-outs Mack has employed.”

There is absolutely no way you typed these two sentences with a straight face.

Coaching bears mentioning. Understandably, it’s excluded from the OP as a headline because technically it’s been the same on offense year over year and you’re breaking down mostly what’s changed and new. But to the extent that Will Muschamp’s attitude and persona spreads beyond the D to permeate the whole team, including GD, we might see an elevation in performance on offense.

Reading Mack’s quotes, it’s clear that there is a new kind of discourse going on between defensive and offensive coaches. I suspect that this heightened discourse is not originating from the offensive staff. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that it’s happening now with Muschamp entering his third campaign at Texas. In a larger sense, I hope this is the case and what we observe this year is Muschamp deepening his stamp on the entire team from within as a sign of what’s in store over the long term.

Pardon me, NR. Muschamp as influence on this year’s offense notwithstanding, I missed your 1) GD headline.

I like the 2008 OU comparison and only hope that we can end up being that explosive in scoring points.

SR, that was a great article by Brick

I am excited about this ‘new’ offense, and, though as a woman, I don’t have the intricate knowledge of football that comes from actually playing, I feel that Gilbert displayed a poise well beyond his years in the national championship game. Had the coaches turned him loose earlier in the game, we might have won, but I understand why they chose to wait to see if Colt could come back in.

We all need to respect each player for the sacrifices made for the program. That said, the mentality of the Casey Studdard line was incredible. I hope that the players on this line have that same type of aggressive, in-your-face attitude. How many defenders want to stare across the line of scrimmage at the Studdard Stare? That line was badass. USC’s pro team never had a chance against Vince and his minions.

Why is everyone complaining about our weak schedule? It is much stronger than last year. A&M should be stronger, and Tech has a coach that, rather than being a curiosity, has the respect of the media and is known for fielding solid defenses. In addition, we play them in Lubbock. OU, will get their due, as always. UCLA is on the schedule, and will be shown a modicum of respect, at the least, by the press. Baylor, with RG, III, should be far better than last year, if nothing else. To top it off, we play Nebraska at their house, not on a neutral field.

I realize it is politically correct to be pessimistic, but when one compares this schedule to last year’s schedule, why criticize? Sometimes it seems that an outspoken few want the team to take on all takers-all season, and I wonder “Why?” It certainly isn’t necessary in order to get to the national championship game, and it’s a recipe for disaster.

you’ve got it, hopeful horn, and Scipio’s analysis has been right on.

Thank you, Malcolm Brown!

This is the worst article I have read in a long time. And I used to subscribe to Orangebloods.

Got your ass covered either way. Wall Street would short the Horns this year.

I love articles like this simply because it means football season is close enough to talk about. And the discussion is centered around… Football! Not conference realignment, not press conferences, not extremely early preseason polls, but the actual details of our beloved Texas Longhorns. While all of are waiting with baited breath to see what really happens with the offense the best we can do right now is discuss the factors presented by Nickel Rover today. I will do my best to add an interesting opinion.

Why Texas’ offense fails in 2010:
1) I don’t think Davis’ unsuccessful attempts at a running game are due to not having an All-American caliber RB even though it does seem that an All-American RB masks the issues of the strategy we employ. I think Nickel nails it the last several paragraphs. Two of the big issues are practice time and limitations during practice time. It seems like lack of practice time is being addressed whether Davis is the one determining that or not. I think that will only improve performance. Timing is mentioned a lot when talking about OL play. I think a bigger factor is technique, and technique is only something that can be improved by repetition. I do think the improvement will be limited due to the constraints it seems we are putting on the OL practice time. If our blocking success will be affected by how well we can cut block, then not allowing that to occur in practice is going to greatly affect the performance of that very valuable skill. Cutting is something that really benefits from repetition. Not only do you get better at it, but you as an OL also become less likely to hurt someone. The other side of the coin is that apparently we want our DL to be able to play better against power running teams. One skill a DLinman needs is the ability to cleanly play off a cut block and pursue the football. This can only hurt. Overall though I don’t see how we can expect anything but improvement. The question is how much and how much is enough.

2) I am not sure inexperience is going to be a huge factor except at QB. Gilbert’s maturation I think is the real key. We have sufficient experience at RB, WR, and OL. We don’t have much at TE so that may be a factor as well even though Smith and Matthews are another year into their college careers. So we’ll see how steep Gilbert’s learning curve is. I expect it to be steep and hoping by OU he is near the plateau. That may be too late though for an undefeated season.

3)Tackles are an obvious concern. I don’t know about the rest of you but I thought Ulastoski was terrible last year. His mistake led to the Gilbert fumble at the end of the NCG when it was 24-21. I would be happy if we just could eliminate mental mistakes. I think physically we are going to give up some plays. Still missed assignments were a big problem last year. If we can just get smarter we should be good enough.

4)This is probably the biggest issue the Longhorn offense faces. A lack of base and complementary plays has been discussed for a couple of years now, and I don’t expect it to be any better. I really really want it to be better but I won’t believe it until I see it. For one thing your base play has to be good, like the zone read with Vince Young. Maybe Davis has already found it but I have to think that will be the hardest thing, finding that one play which the offense excels at and then building a scheme around that. Last time Davis was able to find it, we set records. I think if we are honest Texas’ best play is going to be in the passing game. That is where our skill talent lies. So how do you set a passing base and compliment it with the running game and at the same time give the running game enough practice time to improve. Hmmm. We’ll see.

Why Texas’ offense succeeds in 2010:
1) I think we all expect him to be a star. We base that on the fact that he brought the team back from 24-6 to 24-21 in the NCG. I share that optimism. However, we can not forget what happened from that point on. Was it 2 or 3 turnovers? Even after the fumble, Garret had a chance to go down and cut the lead to 3 again and he threw an interception. Then he did it again? It seems he (and the rest of the team) got their heads down at that point. If they are going to be a successful unit, they will not be able to sulk even for a moment when something bad happens. One of the great things about VY and Colt were that they didn’t seem to get down about mistakes and that affected the rest of the team. Let’s hope Gilbert can repeat that trait. If so, I think 2010 will be very enjoyable.

2) I have to agree with this. We have to remember where the overall talent base is this year compared to the last few. The low points of 2006 and 2007 coincided with weaker than usual recruiting classes for Texas. Over the last 5 years our rankings have been #3, #3, #10, #3, and #2. That is consistently getting top talent. We all know where the lack of depth is but the cupboard is full.

3)It is funny that OLine can be a weakness and a strength, but it can. The tackles may have problems on an island against someone with speed, but there is considerable depth at guard and center. This is where the alignment change will have the most effect. Firing off and hitting and pulling will be a boon not just to the interior but to the tackles as well. I know Nickel’s point is mainly about the people we have, but personnel and scheme go hand in hand. This is of course limited by practice limitations (allowing cutting, etc) and finding a base play to help from the strategy aspect.

4)What Nickel describes is what I would love to see happen. How awesome would it be to find the right personnel groupings where we could go under center I-formation and shotgun spread interchangeably. It would be even better to be able to audible in and out of the formations and plays, but that would probably be too much for Gilbert at this point.

I think of all the reasons we succeed I think this is the one I am most skeptical of though. There has been much discussion about hinting at plays based on formation. I see a great potential for that with all the different formations if there is a solid scheme built around each. This just seems like one of those things that gets talked about a bunch during the offseason but never materializes. So this factor is either a big positive or neutral compared to previous years of having GD as an OC.

Overall, I am excited about the season. I don’t know if it is reasonable but I expect an improvement in the offense from 2009. I am just not sure how much of an improvement there will be. Hook’em.

I’ve come to believe that this is why they will succeed:

2). Talent/Speed

A whole roster of burners, and GG has the arm and composure to make teams pay big if they can’t match up. The offense may stagnate occaisionally, but like you saw in the NC game, GG can break out big throws for TD’s a few times a game even against stingy defenses.

Match that up w/ possibly the best defense in the country on the other side of the ball as well as maybe the best special teams in the country, and there’s very few teams that will be able to take the Horns toe to toe.

That being said, OU has the credentials to hand the Horns a loss, that game will be evenly matched. But I don’t really see any other team on the schedule that should worry us much.

TLDR: Next year will be like every other year. The RRR determines who goes undefeated to the BCS games. Horns will be undefeated or 10-2 at worst, barring an injury to GG or some other key player.

I’d like to hear “Tim” explain his reasoning

The downhill running game is going to be better than a lot of people anticipate. In the scrimmage they ran this week, GD said they ran with the QB under center about 70% of the snaps (!) and that they ran well. The horns are obviously spending lots of practice reps on the QB under center run game. The horns O play book may be the same play book as in previous years but if they line up under center anywhere hear half the snaps, it will be a very different O than we’ve seen for several years.

All the OL have been quite enthused about running downhill, they are really taking pride in it. Mack and OL said that just getting to line up in a 3 point stance rather than 2 point stance is making a big difference (i.e. easier to run drive block, harder to pass block). GD mentioned that having both an H back and a TE makes their zone blocking “thicker”. I translate this to mean there are more blockers at the hole so there are more double teams and better blocking angles. Mack mentioned what great preparation it is for the horns O to have to practice against such a great D but also that it was great practice for the D to have to tackle Cody.

The horns play action passing game will greatly benefit from the new focus on running (i.e. pass blocking on play action passes should be relatively straight forward).

Assuming the horns mostly run with the QB under center when they are on schedule WRT down vs distance, the implication is that the horns will mostly pass when they are in the shotgun because it will be an obvious passing situation. Will the horns be able to pass block well in that situation? That will probably be a bigger challenge for the horns retooled OL than run blocking when the QB is under center. Most likely they will need to frequently move the pocket a few steps or roll out Gilbert to try to avoid the pass rush. when staying in the original pocket, Gilbert will also need to get rid of the ball quickly which means very quick opening pass patterns that depend on YAC to get the first down. Maybe the OL can make up for its shotgun pass blocking deficiencies with good down field blocking on the quick passes.

If the horns don’t run a lot of intermediate pass patterns out of the shotgun, that will be a big difference from previous seasons.

Mack mentioned that they don’t want to get Malcolm too tired by playing both special teams and WR so he is moving Kirk to back up Malcolm so Malcolm can get some rest. I interpret this to also mean that Mack is also freeing up snaps at slot receiver for Mike Davis.

@Bob Loblaw – really? Good Lord what a ridculous characterization.

Keys to your offensive success:

1. Gilbert needs to stay healthy.
2. Need power running game with trapping plays when teams start to overpursue.
3. Need a vertical passing game and good play action.
4. Need a couple of your freshman receivers to step up.

Kilgore: yeah pretty much. The zone, power and draw look like the main plays so far, not sure about trapping. Typically the counter has played some role in the running game.

Loblaw: thanks for the constructive criticism. You should read some of my other garbage, it’s even worse.

Tim: it’s all really young and unproven but I don’t think another Mack offense has had this caliber of talent in every unit. There are blue chippers on the OL, at QB, receiver, and maybe at TE. If this offense surpasses 2005 I’ll eat a BC tote bag but it has players everywhere that could match their 05 counterparts at some point in their careers here.

Kafka: I think your instinct on Kirk and Davis is probably right on.

A comparison to the ’05 team, particularly on offense, may be a stretch. However, the point re: overall talent from the past few recruiting classes is valid. Mack and Texas have always recruited well but have taken it to another level since winning the MNC in ’05.

With a first year starter at QB, a re-tooled OL and the loss of 4 NFL draft picks (a 1, two 2’s and a 4) on defense, most other programs would call this a rebuilding year. Yet, things will have to go really wrong for Texas to lose 3 games.

Let’s assume Gilbert approaches Bradford in the number of times he’ll be on his ass with the Rams.

Elusive Colt couldn’t stay upright vs OU or NU and now Gilbert is going to, behind a OL work-in-progress?

Mack said he is committed to playing freshman this year, both on O and D. My guess at frosh making the O 2 deep this season: 2 WRs, 2 (or more) OL, 1 H back, 1 backup QB. On D: at least one DT, 2 DEs, 1LB. Mack knows there will be mistakes but he will deal with it. IIRC, Mack also said this year’s recruiting class combined with last year’s recruiting class are the two best consecutive classes he has ever had.

GD said that Whaley is happy and excited about the position switch from TB to H back because Whaley feels he has found his real position. GD said they are moving Whaley around a bunch (i.e. H back, short yardage TB, TE). I am guessing they will also try him at flex TE. Mack said that he wants somebody at h back who can also split out as a WR from time to time. Maybe Whaley is that guy.

Phaeded: the approach with Gilbert will be very different than with Colt.
Texas won’t be throwing 40-50 times a game, they are going to throw the ball with PA which helps buy time for the line, and they’ll use the draw which punishes ends who fly around the tackles in the pass-rush.

They won’t be able to pass protect even as well as last year but that won’t be necessary anymore either. Mack knows the truth about his tackles right now.

Phaeded:
“Elusive Colt couldn’t stay upright vs OU or NU and now Gilbert is going to, behind a OL work-in-progress?”

Yeah, most likely the UT OL will have trouble pass blocking in the shotgun against elite D’s.

This problem will be ameliorated somewhat because the horns will be in the shotgun much less this season than last and play action passing for most of their time consuming deep throws.

There are workarounds. For intermediate patterns out of the shotgun, the horns should move the pocket or roll out Gilbert to give him the time he needs. Whenever possible, when in the shotgun against an elite D, Gilbert should be throwing in rhythm, getting rid of the ball on time (even if he is just throwing it away).

Colt was a “make a play no matter what” guy who rarely threw the ball away. Gilbert has been coached his whole life by his dad (ex NFL QB) to throw the ball away rather than try to make the low percentage play or take the sack.

If Mack/GD/Major are smart, they will realize the OL’s shotgun pass blocking limitations and call plays that give the OL a good chance to succeed. Now that Major and Muschamp are part of the brain trust, maybe this will happen.

To add to Kafka’s point, the goal of the “downhill” rushing attack isn’t necessarily the quantity of yardage that it generates, but it needs to be good enough to accomplish two things:
1. Keep the defense “honest” and force them out of dime and 7 DB sets. If you watch the Nebraska game, they were in Dime on every play, and we couldn’t run the ball effectively because we didn’t have a rushing scheme to take advantage of the defense only having 5 in the box. We had no blocking TE, and our schemes were based on inside and outside zone plays that asked the OL to reach block against two DT (Suh and Crick) that are so strong that they not only defeat the reach block attempt, they also force two Texas OL to account for each of them by penetrating and ruining the “handoff” from one OL to another OL in the zone scheme. By switching to 5 OLs and a TE this year (yeh…6 blockers) and allowing a forward step for the OL as a first step, we SHOULD be able to force the defense to keep at least 2 LBs in the game (6 in the box), and if we do things effectively, perhaps even force defenses to keep 3 LBs on the field (7 in the box). Gasp…real football.

2. Be enough of a threat to allow for some effective play action passing. If you rush the ball well enough that the defense has to keep 2-3 LBs on the field to stop the run, than you got the ability to be effective in play action, because the LBs will have to read and react to play action, than get into their drop zones. This is a much slower process than having a Dime package with 2 DBs replacing 2 LBs, and playing 7-10 yards off the ball and eschewing any run threat. By creating a slower reaction of the LBs, you now have only 4 DBs on the field to cover 3 WRs, and a TE who can really run and sometimes even catch (Matthews). In other words, you’ve got 1-on-1 coverage in a lot of places. Even if the defense is covering 2-deep zone (Cover 2), you would still have 4 receiving threats to roam the zones between the slow dropping LBs (after reacting), and the Safeties forced to run to deep halves.

Now, the real glass half-full view of this offense: If we accept that Gilbert can stretch the field deep, and make throws that Colt couldn’t (deep outs, deep ins, and skinny posts with more depth than just slants), than we may really got something here. By forcing defense to keep 2-3 LBs on the field to stop the run, and by having Gilbert threaten the field deep, this forces the Safeties to REALLY be able to play coverage (if in Man), or forces them to haul ass into deep coverage zones (if Cover 2). Either way, we benefit by being able to hit deep-in routes at will, or (if Man) forcing Safeties to cover our WRs one-on-one. Victory is ours either way.

Further, if the defense plays Cover 2 (this means you, Stoops), than we create two more problems. One, the CBs in Cover 2 are NOT necessarily good coverage guys (think, Derek Strait), but they can appear great CBs in a Cover 2 scheme because they can squat in their zone, get a look into the backfield, and (usually) get to break FORWARD on the ball. Think about what OU asks their CBs to do in their Cover 2 scheme. I’d assume Nebraska’s CBs are asked to do the same. Sit on the outside zones at 10+yards (while the Safety has over the top responsibilty), forcing the QB to throw short underneath, and come FORWARD and blow-up the WR if not step in front of the pass for a pick-6. It’s the easiest CB to play in college football…no deep responsibility and no man-up coverage. Two, we send the TE down the seem and force a slower-reacting caucasian LB to turn and run with Matthews. We win. Remember Finley against Reynolds of OU in 2007? He had north of 150 yards receiving. In 2010, this will be Wort and Matthews.

Finally, if we can combine forcing a defense to keep 3 LBs on the field with play action passing that can stretch a defense vertically, we also have one last arrow in the quiver. This combination allows for speedy WRs to stretch the field HORIZONTALLY by having lots of open space to use their speed while the slower LBs are reading the run action initially. Things like reverses, hitches off play action, and quick slants off play action can all be done while the 3 LBs are stuck inside, and before they can react and get into their drop zones. We have a big speed advantage simply by having Malcolm, Marquis, Matthews, and Chiles or Davis on the field while the defense has 3 LBs on the field. That goes without saying. But, if we can force LBs to respect their run stopping responsibility for even a split second longer than in previous seasons, that speed mismatch will be enhanced because we’ll have the room it creates to run behind the LBs. Neat stuff.

Net-net: If we can actually get a lumbering, big RB who can get 4 yards between the tackles on every carry, it’ll force all defenses to add LBs back into the game. Most of the LBs in the Big XII suck, especially the ILBs. It’s probably as simple as IF the OL can create a hole enough for a two-yard rush, Cody hits that hole with his weight and good body lean and the law of physics takes that 2-yard hole and turns it into a 4 yard rush. Move the chains, and bring in another LB to stop it, Stoops. Than play action passing and speed mismatches take over. The weakness of OU has always been their Safeties being forced to cover fast WRs deep. If we can do that, I’m not as worried about Oct 2nd and Oct 16th anymore.

@jon:

The words “Tim” and “reasoning” don’t belong in the same sentence.

Whistling, fuck off you POS troll.

One of my favorite memories is Wane McGarity burning OU for a huge gain off of play action. How many yards was it? 96 seems familiar, but whatever the amount, it was sweet.

Hook ’em!

Glass Joe,

Great post, many excellent, interesting points.

Just to extend your comments a bit further, the horns will also have an H back (either Greg Smith or Whaley) which means there is a 7th big guy bona fide blocker. When facing a dime, the horns will be able to double team block two DL guys with one on one blocks everywhere else in the box. Some of those double teams will be chip blocks by TEs and H backs that then segue into a block on another defender or a pass route There is a good chance that the horns have enough blocking on the field to run OK even against an elite D that is playing 6 or 7 DBs. Certainly Cody has the power to punish a D with mostly DBs.

Compounding the safeties problem is that they have to provide the insurance policy against Goodwin and Malcolm getting deep. So, even though the horns are only playing two true WRs, the D has to commit 4 DBs to covering those two WRs (at least when the WRs are Malcolm and Goodwin).

If the horns run well against the dime and the D is forced to commit 4 DBs to cover Malcolm and Goodwin, the implication is that the D is forced into, at most, 5 DBs and that of the TB, TE, and H back group, two of them are likely to be covered by LBs rather than DBs. With Whaley at H back and Matthews at TE and Fozzy or Tres at TB, that is a serious problem for the D.

The horns should also have an excellent outside power running or short passing attack with Malcolm to block the playside safety and the TE/H back blocking the playside OLB.
The horns should be able to protect Gilbert when he rolls out to buy time for Goodwin to attack the space vacated by the playside safety. gilbert, who has good straight ahead speed, should also be able to run to the sideline, make some easy yards, avoid contact by getting out of bounds when he has Malcolm, the H back or TE, and Cody blocking for him.

The blocking by the horns larger skill players (i.e. h back, TE, Malcolm at WR, Cody at TB) is going to make a big difference.

When the D is forced to honor the run, it hurts the D’s ability to zone blitz. When the D is not able to load up with speedy personnel optimized for pass D, there are fewer fast DL that you can drop into zone pass defense. This means the D either has to keep the DBs in coverage or create a big hole in the pass D when they do blitz.

The larger skill players (big TB, TE, and H back) also provide extra pocket blocking for the QB, which makes it much tougher for a blitzer to reach the QB. These big guys are also excellent safety valve targets after initially blocking.

There are lots of advantages to having large skill players who block well. It is fun to play 4 or 5 true WRs (i.e. typically fast, not that big, not great blockers) but there isn’t much point to it when you can’t protect the QB in the pocket long enough for the little WRs to run their route.

I look forward to seeing the following personnel on offense:
Malcolm split wide, Goodwin at flanker, Matthews at TE, Whaley at H-back, Fozzy at TB. Without a single substitution you can go from two tight ends to four wide outs.

I’m not getting my hopes up for that kind of creativity.

“All in all the staff’s Major plan for offense and defense make sense this season in way like we didn’t see in 2009 when the offense was treated as though it were still the breadwinner.”

So the scheme is all due to Applewhite?? Major was capitalized intentionally, right? :)
.

I did do that on purpose but I don’t actually believe that. Major Applewhite would call Davis when OC at Rice and Alabama for advice and schematic lessons, Greg Davis is a primary influence on Applewhite’s offensive philosophy.

I do think Muschamp has had some big influence in the new scheme and I’m willing to believe that Applewhite hates the running scheme of the last few years since he’s been a part of better running systems.

There has been several mentions in the pressers about the coordinators LEARNING their strengths and weaknesses from the other coaches. Methinks this is a Muschamp thing because they have never mentioned that in prior seasons.

If Muschamp is sticking his head in our offensive gameplanning, that can only be good, imho.

I’ve seen it mentioned in prior seasons actually, but I’m not sure I did before Muschamp’s arrival.

I was fairly confident though that Mack has always gone to lengths to build team identities with Offense and Defense considered together with all the coaches present.

It’s a little too easy to attribute every good thing in the last few years to Applewhite and Muschamp, this program was already winning 10 games every year those guys pushed it over the top.