Predicting Garrett Gilbert's First Year At QB: A Historical Perspective

Great way to put this in perspective. I think you should check your fingers – you predict a 25% reduction in attempts but then predict 423, which is 25% more than any of the other QB’s. I’m also surprised that you predict more interceptions than any of the others – I know Gilbert has been described as a bit of a gunslinger but lately the word seems to be that he’s making good decisions and not forcing it. Also not sure that I buy that he will throw for almost 1,000 more yards than the others. Finally I think that he’ll do well in the first 5 or so games, look miserable against OU and NU, and then finish well.

Sports are all about repetition, leaning body memory.

As you suggest GG has had repetition galore. He is really not the issue.

I think your figures are reasonable, but could be pessimistic if line, RBs, and receivers play reasonably well, meaning GG could have much better numbers if they play well.

BTW, I still count using my fingers as well. Old habits die hard. They do have adult ed things to help though. Tried that yet?

Amazingly all 4 first years (incl Mock and Young together for 03) were all within a very tight range around 2600 yards. So I am guessing about 3,000 for GG in 14 games. 24 touches and 114 picks. We have some receivers who may set up the volleyball pick this year and not get quite as lucky as Colt did on some of his “right into a DB or LB’s hands” drops.

Compared to last year I see more interceptions… but LESS int’s for TD’s.

Colt was horrible at the 3 yd hitch int’s. I don’t see Gilbert doing that. His will be more likely from bombs far down field that you WILL be able to tackle.

I, unfortunately see Gilbert fumbling more than Colt did. I think another critical blindside fumble in a crucial moment may happen again like has happened to Simms and Gilbert in the champ game last year. Throwing down field more typically means holding on to the ball more. I see more sacks than we’ve been used to. Colt has spoiled us in that regard.

However, if the scrimmages are any indication… Gilbert has committed 0 turnovers against our stellar defense. How will that translate? Who knows, but maybe it means the TO bug hasn’t caught Gilbert yet.

I just hope and pray we see no batted balls like we did weekly in the Simms era.

14 picks

“Under Brown, we’ve only had one new starter benched. Chance Mock. That’s not an option this year, no matter how Gilbert plays. "

True, but the other side of the coin is that Major lost his spot to Simms, Simms had to compete with Major his junior year, Young was still being competed with Mock in mid-2004 (Mizzou game) when Young was a sophomore, and Colt traded series with Chiles in his sophomore bowl game. Mack’s MO when the offense struggles is to try a new QB.

This year will be fun.

Some of the attempts are skewed because not all of those starters played 14 games. I think in 01, Applewhite still played occasionally. In ’03 Mock and VY started. So they split the attempts there. And in ’06 Colt hardly played a (meaningful, uninjured) snap against KSU and Aggy.

Also in 06 we had no Big Xii champ game. So Colt’s numbers were really for only 11 games. Extrapolate Colt not getting injured AND playing in the Big XII Champ game and you’ll get the attempts that Scip has. More or less.

texas tough -
 
25% fewer attempts than in 2009.
 
His interception per attempt would be around 3%, which is reasonable for new QBs.
 
If he doesn’t throw for 1,000 yards more than the other QBs, 3-4 losses is a certainty.
 
Longhorns Win -
 
No doubt that my numbers make actually be conservative. 270 yards passing a game isn’t out of the question at all. But you have to factor in some stinkers or early pulls in a blowout win.
 
Taylor -
 
Good background. Thanks. Mack won’t be able to try a new QB this year, is my point.

Orangechipper -
 
That’s correct. I looked at them from a per game standpoint. Not an aggregate. To your point, he Gilbert numbers may look big to some, but passing for 3,000+ yards in modern college football over 13 and 14 game schedules isn’t that big of a deal.
 
Simms, Applewhite, VY, McCoy all did it. Hell, Landry Jones did it last year.

GG will be a far better QB as a freshman than Colt was, but it’s really hard to predict his success because we don’t know what level of play we are going to get from the offensive line. If he had our 2006 line to work with, I would say he should be getting his plane tickets and lodging ready for NYC. If he has something more akin to our 2007/2009 lines, then good luck kid.

All indications point to us having a stronger interior line than last year, but possibly being weaker in pass blocking. However, this weakness may be offset by our shift in scheme, ala having more blockers to share the load and throwing more down field.

Hopefully we won’t find out how hard we suck like we did last year when our linemen were getting their asses beat by players from Wyoming and Colorado.

Shit, make that a sophomore compared to Colt’s freshman season.

Great work on the numbers. Can’t argue — except I think this team will, at times, “force the issue” insofar as the rushing game goes. That will mean running more than seems necessary . . . shorter games, as you point out . . . and less passing, thus lower passing yardage.

I predict a lot of frustration with the fanbase (not those who read this site, of course) conerning play-calling. To make the rushing attack work, we have to be committed to it — conceptually, in practice, in blowout games, in tight games. Part of this concept will be to breed confidence in running the ball this season, part with an eye on the future. The hosses up front will be better next year and better than that in 2012, and I’ve heard we’ve got a blue-chip RB on the way.

To some extent, this is a learning/teaching/developing year. There will be times all of us will scream at conservative play-calling.

I disagree about him sucking against both ou and nu.

I see big numbers passing wise going into RRS, then the traditional meat grinder. Then vague heisman talk after destroying NU, which of course tails off as people regain their senses/ESPN fellates the S.E.C. Nominee.

How do I know? Hunch, but this kid has got it. In a way Simms never did.

You’re numbers look solid.

“Alabama baptism by fire”

I’ve never seen a 4 TO performance by a QB inspire such a rabid, pentecostal faith in his fans. Yes, I get it – it was by-gawd Bama. It was also see-u-later Shipley.

This message underwriten by Hix, Mitchell and Sacked, LLC.

Scip – I think your analysis is pretty reasonable overall.

Perhaps I’m getting ahead of myself, but I think this raises an interesting question of running game production. If we’re going to maintain a similar offensive production to the last couple of years (420-440 ypg or so), we’re going to have to average 180-200 ypg rushing.

Do you see that big of an improvement in the running game? I’m still a little skeptical.

And whether we need to match that offensive production is another matter.

“I see more sacks than we’ve been used to. Colt has spoiled us in that regard.”

Holy moly, are you serious? I don’t know how it can get much worse. Texas allowed 30 sacks in 13 games last season.

He got his head handed to him in the first half (first two TOs), and, with the help of the defense, got the team back into the game with three minutes to go. That’s something to be excited about, compared to what we knew about Colt McCoy at a similar point., which was nothing.

“Holy moly, are you serious? I don’t know how it can get much worse. Texas allowed 30 sacks in 13 games last season.”

Lets not forget that 9 of them were from the Nebraska game.

I’m just speaking generally. Colt was hard to sack. He’d make an 8 yard loss into a 1 yard loss. Still a sack, true. I just don’t see the same kind of escapablity with Gilbert. We know he has decent wheels, but will he be able to recognize the blitz while he holds on to the ball to go deep?

This is the play I worry we may see more than once in 2010.

I hope not.

This all will depend on the draws and screens we’re practicing. We better have a decent running game or I’m not as optimistic about Gilbert staying as healthy this year as Scipio is.

Rusty-
I don’t think 180-200 yards rushing per game is too hard to imagine as we had 147 per game last year. Of course, a lot of those came late against worn down defenses. I could see a lot of 10-3 halftime scores this year that open up as the game goes on and the opposing defense gets tired.

Colt also held onto the ball for far too long and would create negative plays when he could have just thrown the ball away. I don’t think GG will be able to generate the freewheeling off-schedule plays Colt did, but I don’t think he’s going to turn the ball over anymore than Colt did due to Colt’s nature to gamble.

 From what we’ve heard, GG hasn’t thrown any picks in any of the scrimmages so I wouldn’t be shocked if he has under 12 interceptions this season. It feels like the practice reports in general are more optimistic concerning the offense versus last year (where all we heard was that the offense was getting its ass kicked every day). However, this could just be an indictment against the defense or a different level of expectation of offensive production for this year compared to last.

Phaeded. Email sailorripley AT barkingcarnival DOT COM

Pheaded loves dropping Okie turds on Longhorn boards. Been doing it for years. Nerdy irritating little fella when we’re kicking OU’s ass; an ubearable POS when OU has the upper hand.

I have nothing to add on the offense or Gilbert that Scipio’s superb opening post covered and several other bloggers added on to. But there has never been a new QB in the Mack Brown era that had the best DC in the country and the type of talent on that side of the ball that GG will be the beneficiary of when he has the headset on on the sidelines. That’s where the pressure on him will be relieved.

If he avoids a meltdown game a la Simms in the Big 12 CCG vs Colorado we actually can win them all.

So only one first year starter has ever been benched…that interesting?

How many Senior, proven commodity, starters have we benched…oh yeah, just one of those too.

I had actually forgotten that we were within three points with 3 minutes left in the game and had the damn ball.

Great defensive call by Saban, but shit, now my head hurts.

Time for a Tuesday night beer. Sigh.

I don’t see why we can’t repeat what Bama did last year.

They were #42 in total offense and #2 in total defense.
They were #92 in passing offense.

Mcelroy was #28 in QB efficiency and #72 in passing yards per game.

The point, in case its not obvious by now, is that with a top 5 defense, you can get away with having an adequate but not outstanding QB.

Of course it didn’t hurt that Bama was #12 in rushing offense

Sidenote: Bama was #2 in red zone defense last year. We were #64. Think we can’t find some room for improvement there??

“This is the play I worry we may see more than once in 2010.”

Well, as long as we don’t play a lot of empty set, fake the wr screen while waiting for the slot to clear upfield where Garret fails to read the blitz and dump it off to the open short man from the blitzing db’s side then we’ll be ok.

Our OT’s may demand that an Hback/RB stay in to chip to help prevent that scenario anyway.

Sidenote: Bama was #2 in red zone defense last year. We were #64. Think we can’t find some room for improvement there??

That stat blows my mind. I watched every snap of every game and I was always left with the impression that we clamped down like a pit bull in the red zone. I can think of numerous times where we inherited a short field on D thanks to a turnover and we stonewalled the opposition. I would have guessed we were in the top 15 easily.

Bobby… to me it wasn’t necessarily the play call that irked me. It was his lack of recognition. Its as if he had zero awareness. That’s what worries me. In that kind of situation you just can’t let that happen. Ulatoski screwed up majorly on that play also, btw. I worry we may see more WSU type game-planning if we can’t run adequately.

‘wulf,
So how many years has that nerd been irritating now? It seems like it’s been quite a while that I see his name and keep on scrolling.

btw,
Hook ’em!

ps: Aren’t you glad you went to school south of the Red River?

Bama got a lot of turnovers in the redzone. Where we gave up alot of fg’s. Bama also blocked several fg’s. That doesn’t hurt either. Here’s the link. http://www.ncaa.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/ncaa-m-footbl-fbs-team-red-zone-defense.html

Even A&M had better red zone D according to those rankings. Ouch.

We should all be thrilled if he has a Colt freshman season. Don’t forget that Colt would have been a Heisman finalist if not for the injury against K-St. He was damn good.

Orange Chipper -
 
That play wasn’t on the OL or Ulatoski.
 
Bama overloaded our right side and lined up Dareus inside Ulatoski’s shoulder. We had an automatic line call to roll protection right. Ulatoski followed the OL rule of not allowing an inside man free.
 
That means Anders goes unblocked and Gilbert has to account for him.
 
That’s why you don’t go with an empty set inside your 15. If we had a RB blocking, Gilbert steps up in the pocket and we’re fine.
 
BTW, that precise call happened to us about half dozen times during the season. Bama watched film and Kirby Smart put it in his pocket.

OC,

I kinda expect that lack of awareness from a second stringer who’s been getting second string reps the entire year, and is suddenly thrust into the spotlight in the MNC game.

We’ll see some of it and other things this year, but GG’s pocket presence is too good for it to be an ongoing problem.

The analysis is very solid.

Unfortunately, the Health bit should have a line through it — or a question mark next to it. Gilbert’s got a distinct weakness coping with safety/corner blitzes, demonstrated to the world in the MNC. And nothing he has experienced in practices can have improved it.

He knows, at a deep level, that he is in no danger of getting slammed by his own people, if for no other reason than that at any faint sign of such a thing, Mack would shove pitchforks up their asses until they were dead. This has left him unreasonably confident about his protection, especially on his blind side, and I have little to no confidence about either that or his ability to improvise and run. Young was a mother-frickin’ Lambo Gallardo in that scenario, McCoy was perhaps up to Staubach standards, but Gilbert runs like a… I’m going to say it… a Manning brother.

The consequences will be painful for Texas. I hope Connor Wood is up to the job.

I am not as optimistic. Both in general and with his numbers. Applewhite had a better line, possibly better receivers, and Ricky Williams. Sims had better receivers, Benson, and probably a better line as well in 2001. Mock had the big 3 at receiver and a similar line, but also Benson. Mccoy had the best line of the MB era, better receivers, and a returning national title team that refused to give up until the Kst fiasco.

In short, GG is going to bat with the worst surrounding cast on offense in the MB era for a first year starter. This OL is signifigantly weaker than all but the 2001 line, and even then, is probably weaker than that year. And specifically at tackle. Not good. Every other first year starter had at least one dominating player to lean on, on the field. Ricky, Benson +Big 3, or in 2006 with Limus + Selvin Young.

Now take into account, that the defense will be the strength of the team and that will affect our offensive game plan. We will not be nearly as aggressive. Then subtract the numbers from 4 blowouts where we need to get the backup some more pt. The goal for every game will be more like 250 yards with 2 TDs and 1 Int.

I am calling, through 13 games, (no south title) 3200 yards with 23-12.

I don’t know what his final #‘s will be but I see Mac not wanting to put too much pressure on GG. This would mean a greater % of run plays and playing field position with your special teams and relying on your defense. I would think he doesn’t want him out there trying to win the game, so much as not lose it via bad decisions. This would bring his total yards and interceptions down.

I kinda expect that lack of awareness from a second stringer who’s been getting second string reps the entire year, and is suddenly thrust into the spotlight in the MNC game.

Maybe our OC should have expected it as well before calling the fucking play.

Phaeded is scared because he saw true freshman Gilbert, thrown into the fire, lead the Horns to more points in the MNC game than any Sooner QB ever has.

Seems clear that 3400+ will correlate to a good overall outcome, < 3000 a regrettable one, and the uncertainty at this point is still large. The long term default Texas fan half empty view takes the edge, here.

That’s a fun read . . . and like a lot of fans, I’m very excited about the season.

But, I’ll be watching the Oline closely. And, I want to see if we can RTDB this year any better than we have over the past couple of years.

As you’ve pointed out in previous threads, there are some pretty good pash rushers in the league – and not so many great pass protection OT’s. That’s going to have have a big impact on the TD-Int ratio.

Wow, scipio. If Ulatoski truly wasn’t supposed to block the edge rusher on that play… Its amazing that Colt wasn’t constantly hurt throughout his career. No wonder Nebraska had 9 sacks against us. Geesh.

It is always folly to make projections based on one game, let alone one play like I am. But that was just SUCH a critical moment. We were down by 3 and thriving with momentum. That was THE play of the game for Bama. A QB has to have that kind of clutch awareness to come through in that big moment.

Lets hope like you are all hinting that it was just too good of a play call by Bama and that our new scheme won’t allow such a thing to happen again.

I would say if he throws 2 or 3 picks in Lubbock, then I like our chances.

dedfischer, that’s a fair assessment. Remember, we have 12 years of watching the Davis offense, and if there is one thing you can say about it, it’s risk adverse. It is designed to avoid turnovers. Davis prefers routes that are safe and make for easy QB reads. You see a lot of interceptions when: the QB is uncharcteristically off (Simms in the 2001 B12 CG), or when the opposing defense is making great plays on the ball (RRS 2001).

The Garrett fumble in Pasadena, in my opinion, was the result of a QB lacking experience at making the reads, and nothing more. If TT is able to do the same to him, I’ll change my opinion.

I have to disagree about the sack/fumble by Bama at the end of the NCG.

Go back and watch that play Scip. There was no overload. They were in nickel with 4 down linemen. 2 rushed on either side. The LBs both dropped into coverage. Ulatoski never even looks outside. He blocks the DT leaving the guard to block no one. He actually runs to the other side of the formation during the play. GG could have done better but it is called a blindside for a reason. Ulatoski totally screwed over that play worse than I have ever thought possible. All he had to do was get his head out of his ass, communicate with the guard and block the 2 defenders on their side. If a line shift to your side confuses you that much as a senior then you should not be playing.

There was 6 men at the line of scrimmage pre-snap, the OL had to adjust protection to account for the pressure that was being shown. The OL had to protect inside out, at the snap the LBs bail and the pressure off the edge is free, there is not an OT that has ever played that would have been able to get back and protect on that. Not recognizing the pressure and protection is on GG, and I doubt it will happen again.

GG mentioned that he saw the pressure and should have gotten rid of the ball, post game. They were trying to hit Shipley on the “tunnel and go” but ALA showed a two deep shell pre-snap as well, this should have been an immediate throw away, as the play wouldn’t have been there even if the pressure never came.

You didn’t seriously just compare Blaine Gabbert to Sam Bradford, did you?

Also, all of those years you charted, only one of them had a win over Oklahoma*, which is the bellweather of a “good” season.

*Opie gets an asterisk, going against Blake’s sunglasses and jump-to-conclusions mats.

“Maybe our OC should have expected it as well before calling the fucking play.”

Not arguing that at all. Self awareness with regards to down, distance, tendencies, or realistic schematic capabilities in light of current personnel have never been a GD strong suit.

Honestly, although I was hoping beyond hope for a comeback win for the ages, I was fairly certain that something along those lines were coming.

Okay, I see it now. Sorry. My bad. I almost wish they would have allowed the rush up the middle on that play though.

I wonder if he’ll have trouble making a shitty team in a few years…

Colt McCoy: McCoy battling Ratliff for No. 3 QB job

Coach Eric Mangini seemed to acknowledged that rookie Colt McCoy’s standing as the No. 3 QB is in jeopardy.
Mangini indicated that the fourth preseason game would provide “clarity” on the battle between McCoy and Brett Ratliff for one roster spot. Ratliff is a Mangini favorite, but we still find it hard to believe the Browns would punt a third-round pick before the season. Perhaps McCoy will come down with a minor injury, allowing Cleveland to stash him on I.R. for a year.

Scipio,

As usual, love reading your stuff, bro’. Based on a number of studies I’ve both seen and done, if Gilbert keeps his yards per attempt up and his int ratio down, we’ll be in fantastic shape, almost (not totally) regardless of the ground game.

I haven’t found a single, raw stat to be as overall correlated to a team’s success than YPA, and I figure Gilbert will be very nice in that area, provided of course the fastballs don’t glance off too many orange hands and into those of defenders.

Garrett Parker Gilbert?

I’ll never forgive Davis for calling that empty set play. The cost-benefit analysis simply didn’t warrant leaving our inexperienced QB exposed like that.

GG is a true freshman, getting his first meaningful live snaps in the national championship against arguably the best defensive unit in the country, and you are going to call that shit? Did it occur to anyone else that there was a slight possibility that GG might fuck up a blitz coming from his blind side in a situation like that? Was it really necessary to be that risky? By that point in the game we had all of the momentum and we were really starting to churn out yardage, even our piece of shit run game was starting to show signs of life.

Bama needed a big defensive play in order to turn the game around and GD gave them a golden opportunity, like leaving a young lamb out in the middle of some woods infested by wolves, and then wondering how the lamb was slaughtered. I’ve never seen someone so fucking dense.

I don’t really fault GD for the shovel pass, we needed some kind of spark badly at that point in the game, and that play had worked well during the season. It really was a pretty fluky play and if could have rewound and ran the play over again, there’s a 99% chance that doesn’t happen. However, calling for the empty set was a huge fucking blunder and gave Bama the opportunity to retake the game, after GG/Shipley and the defense had worked hard to turn the tide in our favor. I think that might have been GD’s worst play call in his entire coaching career.

John Parker Lopez

Also, it appears we are looking to go to Shipley on a double move/fake screen on that play. With deep safety help over the top. That would have required a precise rope of a pass into the side pocket.

My problem with the five-wide is that it’s yet another set in which we appear to play 10 on 11, because we rarely throw the ball to the RB who splits out wide. When Fozzy Whitaker splits out, the defense can cover him with a dirty look and then go sack the quarterback.

The most frustrating thing about the play at the end of the national championship game was that if you were in the stands you could see tragedy before the snap.

I was sitting that end zone where it happened, JUICE. About 30 yards away. I nudged my brother-in-law, pointed at Anders, and said,“We don’t have him accounted for.”
 
Then the ball snapped…

Like Huge said the play wasn’t there from the snap, whether it be the 2 deep shell or the illusion or pressure. I think those are things GG should have recognized, and I do not think he will make that mistake again in his career.

That said, I didn’t like the empty set in any shape or form last year, and I disagree completely with GD going to it at that point in the game. I liked the idea on the play call, as we were 6 inches from 6 points earlier on the GG overthrow to Shipely, that was a double move, a similar concept to this play. We did that out of 4 wides and 1 back, and we could have run it again if we were looking to exploit Bama aggressiveness on our WRs.

I would also loved to see our WRs give GG a hand in building some confidence in the 1st half of that game. Once he started completing passes he was tough to stop.

Also an interesting thought if we had won. How would Colt be remembered? How much pressure would be on GG compared to now? Ect….

I like football.

“I don’t really fault GD for the shovel pass, we needed some kind of spark badly at that point in the game, and that play had worked well during the season.”

I do. It’s that kind of blatant disregard for our personnel usage and tendencies that drive me up the wall. I bet every eye in the ’Bama defense was looking for Monroe on the RB screen or Utah pass.

Hide your kids. Hide your wife. You better hide your husbands too, because Garrett Gilbert is #$%#ing everybody up in here.

Our offense was awful last year. We were ranked around #70 in yards per play.

If we’re doing it right, we should be revamping our offense to rely on straight line speed, size, and raw athletic talent instead of requiring our players to think on their feet or be ballet dancers. It sounds like Mack, Muschamp, and GD are cooking that up to order.

Our offense is going to torch anyone without safeties who have futures in the NFL. Garrett is going to go deep, and often. And when he’s not going deep, we’re going to run the ball straight at the defense and hope we’re bigger. We might even run the ball 3 times in a row. Think about that for a second.

I’m expecting something like two 3 and outs followed by a monster TD pass off a PA by GG. Short drives punctuated by big breakout plays to bring us in the red zone. Lots of work for the kickers there.

We may have trouble against OU/Nebraska, but in case you didn’t watch UT last season, that won’t be a surprise. It didn’t stop us from winning those games on the backs of our D. I don’t expect our performance against them to be worse.

Garret will likely have a 3 TD to 1 INT ratio in every game outside of the elite defenses we play, then I’d expect it to drop down to 2 and 2.

My problem with going empty there is you are going from the first half mentality of “lets do everything to protect the kid” to “hey, its all on you”. Its schizo.

How about a little middle ground there?

The only possible reason I can see going empty set there is that you dont think you will be able to drive the field. Given that GG was a fish I can see that. But by definition you have to be looking for two receivers and get it out in less than two seconds.

If we were looking at some sort of double move there was no way that was going anywhere. You couldnt win the game from your own 15 but you sure could lose it. And we did.

With out kicking game and being within a FG you have 3 minutes to go 50 yards. Thats an eternity so I dont get the gamble at all.

Finally, on paper I think this is the weakest WR corps we have trotted out to start the season in several years. Nary a security blanket out there.

bulzak -
 
The 1999 WR corps and the 2004 WR corps were turds. 1999 was the most pathetic group I’ve ever seen. 2007 wasn’t great. Quan still wasn’t Quan and Shipley was still the Ghost.
 
This WR group isn’t great, but we’ve got six or seven guys who can play. Sometimes, it’s not about having a dominant #1 but having a #3 WR that’s better than their #3 cover guy. That’s where we’ll make our hay.

The wounds from “the play” are still fresh. 1st and 10 from the 17, w/plenty of time and all the momentum w/a freaking national championship on the line… utterly idiotic formation and play call.

“The 1999 WR corps and the 2004 WR corps were turds. 1999 was the most pathetic group I’ve ever seen. 2007 wasn’t great. Quan still wasn’t Quan and Shipley was still the Ghost.”

1999 had Kwame Cavil and I think 100 catches (until the night before the Cotton Bowl). 2004 was bad. It was a shame we never redshirted Sloan Thomas in 2000. He would have been a senior and helped in 2004 a lot. Also the Shipley injury was huge pre-season. Took him two years to recover.

I love the optimism from several of you that Gilbert will NEVER make that mistake again.

I hope you are right.

Like I mentioned before, my worst nightmare is that this is a rehashing of the Simms era. 30-35 for 350 yds against Nebraska one week and then 17-40 with 3 int’s against Kstate the next… oh and a minimum of 3 batted balls per game. OR a whole season like the blasted Washington State game where our Oline couldn’t protect the QB AT ALL.

Surely they worked on Simms with his batted balls. Never seemed to help. Any.

I think Shipley was on that 99 and 04 team….also, regarding “the play”, good to know im not the only bitter bastard who hasn’t let ol uncle greg off the hook for that….i dont put the blame on GG one bit there….

Yep, you don’t leave a freshmen QB, that deep in his own territory, with an empty set.

1st and 10 from the 17, w/plenty of time and all the momentum w/a freaking national championship on the line… utterly idiotic formation and play call.

This is where echeese would say, “The O and OC have never lost us a title.” (It was the defense’s fault we were behind, even if the O did give them the touchdown before half.)

Oh, and one thing about Gilbert. He showed me more in the second half of that game than would be required in the entire month of September.

He faced some serious live bullets and I am excited about his future, if he has the offensive help he needs. Not real worried about D or special teams any time soon.

This is the year for Malcolm. He has to become the man.

I like that you have him playing 14 games. Thumbs up to that.

Love the post but…

How useful is it to compare entire seasons? Given that UT normally way out talents most of the teams they play, the value of a specific player (or coach) can be hard to determine against weak competition. It reminds me of when GD defenders would point to the season’s stats to illustrate what a great coach GD is. We don’t learn much about GD’s coaching or Gilbert’s QBing when we play Rice (i.e. not much point in including blowout game stats in the comparison).

Especially for a young QB, the supporting cast is hugely important. It is so difficult to compare supporting casts but certainly this year’s OL’s ability to pass protect is a big concern. GD could scheme around it (i.e. with much quicker developing pass patterns (ala Leach) but I have my doubts this will happen. It is to be hoped that GD at least moves the pocket and rolls out Gilbert a lot so that pass rushers don’t have a stationary target.

The UT O will be more conservative this season because the D is so great. Most important objective for Gilbert is to avoid turning over the ball. Against tough D’s, UT will run as much as they can with the QB under center. This will reduce the total number of O plays for UT and will also reduce the number of passing attempts for Gilbert (thus suppressing Gilbert’s stats vs tough Ds). Gilbert is going to be throwing the ball away much more than Colt did. This will cut down on negative plays but won’t help Gilbert’s stats.

I don’t see much point in comparing seasonal stats but in the toughest games (OU, NU, Tech) my prediction is that Gilbert does not post very impressive stats, maybe a total of 600 yards passing in those 3 games and around 1 to 1 ratio of TD passes to turnovers. It is extremely doubtful that the UT OL will be able to pass block well enough for the horns to successfully run 4 and 5 WR formations vs a tough D. Cody should help on TB pass blocking.

Play action passing is going to produce some big plays but countering that, the yards per attempt will be reduced by lots of dump passes when WRs can’t get open before the OL pass blocking fails. Clearly, if the horns play an H back, TE, and Cody at TB very much, there are going to be lots of dump passes. When in the shotgun, because of inadequate OL pass blocking, Gilbert is going to have to get rid of the ball quickly vs OU/NU/Tech, this will also reduce yards/attempt in the tough games.

The comparison of Gilbert to Simms seems obvious. Both were elite high school QBs who have prototypical NFL QB size, not super mobile, with big arms, and sons of NFL QBs. One difference between then and now, is that the horns have added Major and Muschamp to the coaching staff. Maybe this means that horns will have a better understanding between the number of WRs they deploy vs the quality of OL pass blocking. When your OL pass blocking is not very good, you have to supplement it with pass blocking by the TE and/or H back and/or TB. This means fewer Wrs can be deployed (if you have a TE and an H back and TB, then only 2 WRs can be deployed). The more UT lines up with 4 and 5 WRs vs OU and NU, the worse will be our chances of winning.

UT’s ability to run the ball when the QB is under center will be critical to the success of the UT O (and Gilbert) vs tough Ds (eg: OU and NU). Without it, bye bye play action passing and hello OU and NU D selling out to stop the pass. This reliance on running the ball with the QB under center vs the excellent Ds is a huge departure from the past 6 or 7 years (i.e. the Vince and Colt years).

Anyone in the country not wearing orange tinted glasses saw a very mediocre GG play against Alabama. The jury is still out.

The day after the game, I had a bunch of people in Alabama gear tell me how impressed they were with Gilbert once he settled down and how good he is going to be in the future.

Maybe they wore orange glasses during the game though.

Great read! Damn were you guys way off. How about a 1:2 td to int ratio? And I’m wondering if the kid will even hit double digits in the td column this year. Your worst QB in the last decade, at least. Maybe the next time a kid has 4 picks and two fumbles in his first game, we won’t hear him touted for the Heisman freaking trophy. The kid picked right up where he let off last season. The only two genuine football players that Texas had on offense are gone, and the latent problems that have been masked for so long are now exposed. Shipley was the bright spot in the second half of the bama game, not Gilbert. Just now becoming completely obvious? I found the positive talk about Gilbert baffling. To me, he had a whole hell of a lot to prove before any praise.

Enjoy the search for a replacement…qb, rb, o line, wideouts, coordinator. Damn.