Reading Big 12 Tea Leaves

Fun list. I agree that anything to key the gears turning this week is much needed. Anticipation is a bitch.

Disagree about how the Texas rushing yards pan out. The coaches are obviously giving Cody a shot to take over a part in this offense and I think he surprises everyone. We are already saying he’s our number one and Tre/Fozzy will serve as 3rd down options.

I think Cody tops 1000 yards this season.

OU wins – a consequence of trying to replace last year’s relatively effective passing game with a new offense based on no standout receivers, no proven running game, a questionable OL, and a de facto redshirt QB.

Boom’s D is awesome and, in fact, scores more points than the offense.

The next week, a Barker posts about the Nebraska game and includes this line:

“We have a chance if we can stop losing.”

I’m not sure if this is more of a prediction or wishful thinking.

-Texas will leave the field in Lincoln to a round of applause, confirming my suspicion that 99% of the acrimony between the schools and teams, lies within the nameless blogosphere and not with the true fans of either institution.

Go Big Red!

Bob

They will go on to win one game when they’re an underdog and lose one in which they are favored.

You’re saying Aggie will beat one of Arkie, OU, Nubbie or Texas, and lose to one of Mizzou, Kansas, Tech or Baylor? God, please let it be Nubbie and Baylor. Just do this for me!

I predict I will find something to complain about during the season. Because I’m the Scorpion. [Damn day-long Team Building Seminar. I agreed to it by mistake when one of the Ops Managers suggested it and I wasn’t paying attention. I thought he said “can we cut everyone’s salaries if they went to OSU or Tech.” Then they insisted I go. Then the “facilitator” told the story about the Frog and the Scorpion. And, it’s costing me 5 bills and a day of lost productivity for half the company.]

I hope A&M beats Arkansas, but I don’t think it is going to happen this year. I don’t think it will be a blow out like last year though.

Mizzou definitely has a rough schedule this year. I still think they end up winning the North through a tiebreaker (head to head against NU, both at 9-3). Kstate takes a step back, which says a lot since they were 6-6 (with 2 D2 opponents). I think Iowa State gets 3rd. Kansas vs CU decides 6th place.

CU plays: AT Cal, vs Georgia, AT Mizzou, vs TTech, AT OU, and AT NU. That gives them no margin for error in the other 6 games to get to 6-6. I think they go 5-7 at best on their farewell tour.

I hope the next 18 hours pass quickly.

Kansas State went 4-4 in conference last year. Do you have them going 5-3? I see the same 6-6 football team.
 
Good call on the Aggies. I currently have them losing to Baylor and upsetting Nebraska or OU in College Station. This is basically a John Mackovic team.
 
Explain your DeMarco Murray comment.

I enjoy reading these. You have at least even-money at being more accurate than Kirk Bohls.

“- Mike Gundy will be fired at season’s end. The ensuing conversation in T. Boone’s office will be great reading.”

Hey, Shitbird! You’re fired!

I’m having a really hard time coming up with 4 wins for Colorado. I’m giving them 2 wins and even those could be considered coin flips: vs Colo St (lost last yr) and vs Hawaii. Other toss-ups: vs Baylor? @KU? vs ISU? vs KSU? The Hawk is gonna need to hit Busey’s sweat hut HARD for inspiration this year.

Texas wins a wretched game, 19-13, against OU keyed by a forced fumble on a Sooner kick-off return caused by Kenny Vaccaro and scooped up by Vondrell McGee (of all people) who will be tackled at the 2. Cody Johnson scores on fourth down from the half-yard line.

Texas wins a wretched game, 19-13, against Kansas State keyed by a Curtis Brown punt-return for a touchdown. Gilbert throws three picks on the afternoon.

Texas wins the rest, including at Nebraska, barely escapes Missouri, the surprise North winner, in the B-12 CG.

We work Boise State, 35-17, to claim the national title and endure a lifetime of the talking heads wondering if we really could have beaten the SEC champ, a one-loss Florida furious about being excluded.

Oh, and John Gold is the all-conference punter.

Explain your DeMarco Murray comment

I’m no Cotcher, but I think he’s predicting a season (and college career) ending injury…

Jones, that should be:
the SEC champ, a one-loss Florida team that was just unispired and let down after not making the NC game, leading to a loss in their BCS game.

I predict there will be at least one A&M win and one A&M loss after which I drink WAY too much.

Nostra-freakin-dumbass I am……..

I predict that if no Texas RB rushes for 1000 yards, and Tre Newton leads the team in rushing, something has gone terribly wrong.

I predict I will not know what to do with all the extra time afforded me by the 2:30 kickoff this year for the RRS and will thus become drunker than a waltzin’ piss ant by noon.

Scipio –
Feels like K. Wilson is building a big piece of their offense around Murray. My comment is a prediction that Murray is out before the midway point. It’s 15% injury history, 15% coaching tendency, 15% BS & 100% conjecture.

OU will receive far too many All Big XII (-2) placements relative to their actual performance, and Texas will receive too few.

Aaron Williams will continue to be undervalued by lazy sports writers due to his paltry interception stats.

Virginia Tech will continue to be pitched as the ‘Kings of Special Teams’ by lazy sports writers, even though Texas has outperformed them over the last several years.

“15% injury history, 15% coaching tendency, 15% BS & 100% conjecture”—works for me. Thanks for the entertaining post.

I think there is low-level but consistent concern over Jerrod Johnson’s recovery from his shoulder injury. I keep hearing/reading that his throws lack zip, that they’re limiting his reps in practice, etc.

I imagine it will amount to nothing but still … a whole lot of Aggie identity this year is tied into JJ lighting up the scoreboard and finally giving A&M the spotlight they’ve deserved for more than a decade but have been denied by arrogant overrated sips.

I really don’t foresee ANY receiver catching more than 60 balls either but I sure as he’ll don’t see ALL of them catching 30+, only because that would mean GG has progressed Agra of schedule, thoroughly checks down – and has the time to do so – and spreads the love enough for that to happen….

dan

Matt:

I’d reserve judgment on Murray until I saw whether or not he is used on special teams. His two major injuries were both a result of his play on special teams, not from wear and tear. Supposedly, they’re not going to use him on kickoffs regularly. Rrrrrrriiiiiiggght.

scagnetti –
 
TEs and RBs can catch passes too.

Scagnetti -
Goodwin, Kirkendoll, Chiles, Williams & Matthews are “locks” for 30 in my mind.

Hales, Davis, Whittaker, Newton & Smith all have at least an outside chance. Toss in a surprise from Whaley, Howard or Johnson and I’ll be disappointed if the Horns don’t have 6.

Nate – we heard the same thing about Ship not doing any more punt returns. As you are obviously aware of, everything said during the summer is thrown out the window the instant your team starts struggling to score points against its bitter rival in a game that likeley decides the conference champion.

Levander—John Harris from 1560 has Williams as his number 6 NFL prospect. He’s got a list, and it’s a good one, on that site where they bleed orange.

I’ll make the only prediction that matters: We run the fucking table.

@magnusbleuveigner

fuckin’ eh. That’s what I’m talking about.

I’d like my predictions to be read in the voice of Negrodamus:

1. Cody Johnson hits 500 yards in the first 4 games. But only manages to break 1000 in the Big 12 Championship Game.
2. UT finishes better than advertised, while OU, A&M, and Nebraska are all do worse.
3. Garrett Gilbert receives more votes for the heisman than Jerrod Johnson and Landry Jones… combined. 0-0 ties are awarded to Garrett Gilbert.
4. Tucker has to win two games for us by making the difference with his leg. Once in quantity with 3+ FG’s over the course of the game… Once in quality, with a game ending FG.
5. Two teams on our schedule will be unable to outscore the points put up on them by our defense and special teams. Those teams are Rice. And Nebraska.

For the life of me, I don’t understand why the media are so excited about Jerrod Johnson. He’s Robert Griffin light. Gilbert, probably better. Jones, probably better. Potts/Sheffield, probably better. Johnson isn’t the best QB in the division and might be 4th.

NDS,

Johnson has talent and played out of his mind on national TV against Texas last Thanksgiving. Hence, the media frenzy to anoint him, He has yet to show much consistency and will play behind a woefully inexperienced OL this season. Throw in starting the season at less than 100% healthy and I share your skepticism.

Back to back to back National Championships, baby, an improvement on ‘68-’69-’70.

One year, prolly this us may be “close but no cigar,” but then it’s two years of irresistable force.

Gilbert, college football’s best deep passer since John Elway (who his dad whupped their senior years), passes up the NFL draft after his junior year. He becomes number-one draft pick after his senior year. Joins Tim Tebow and Chris Chandler as the most heralded quarterback with same first and last initials ever.

After the Arkansas game, Texas A&M will have a quarterback controversy. Johnson cannot meet the high expectation and will suffer the fate of the last three or four Aggie QBs. There is still room under the bus between Reggie and Brannnnnndon. Many Aggies have an irrational belief that Tannehill can step in right now and be a great QB.

Case McCoy will have to finish a quarter for a mildly injured Garret Gilbert. He will show a flash of brilliance and receive the mantel of Major Applewhite. No QB controversy, but some Longhorn fans will feel about him the way the Aggies feel about Tannehill.

1. By season’s end, three different QBs will have started for Nebraska.
2. At least two members of the Texas defensive line will score touchdowns.
3. Texas and OU will be undefeated going into the RRS.
4. Christian Scott will break and/or dislocate something of value that belongs to someone else.
5. In the win against OU, the stars of the game on offense are Mason Walters, Barrett Matthews, and DJ Monroe. No need to name individuals on defense.
6. Nebraska will play its bowl game in the State of Texas.
7. Texas runs the table.

-magnus:

John Harris is pretty good, and I wouldn’t lump him in with the ‘lazy sportswriters’. I think his fairly recent experience as a HS and college player gives him a better appreciation for what constitutes a legitimate NFL prospect. And he does his homework, which further distinguishes him.

On Jerrod Johnson: I think he’s a good kid with some legitimate tools, as well as good skill position players around him. But, he’s in for a tough time this year with a largely inexperienced OL. If he can adjust to less protection & time to make decisions and still be effective, he will have answered a lot of questions…and probably will have put the Ags in a pretty good position. For his sake, he’ll have about four weeks of tune-ups before they play Arkansas and have to start playing for real.

NDS:

Re: J. Johnson

I too am skeptical of Johnson’s ability to overcome the O Line this season, but his numbers last season (behind an equally inexperienced O Line) seem ok to me. Granted, he was not the best passer in the conference. In terms of total offense, however, he outpaced the field. Maybe this is due to him having to run for his life on passing plays requiring more than a .5 step drop. The numbers are what they are though. To say he is fourth best (behind two QBs who will be playing their first full Big XII seasons) seems to be stretch though.

From Big XII Stats:

 TOTAL OFFENSE Team Cl G Rush Pass Plays Total Yds/G
 ———————————————————————————————
 1. Johnson, Jerrod….. TAMU JR 13 506 3579 642 4085 314.2
 2. Reesing, Todd……. KU SR 12 119 3616 600 3735 311.2
 3. Potts, Taylor……. TTU JR 11 -166 3440 494 3274 297.6
 4. Gabbert, Blaine….. MU SO 13 204 3593 548 3797 292.1
 5. McCoy, Colt……… UT SR 14 348 3521 599 3869 276.4
 6. Jones, Landry……. OU FR 13 -113 3198 484 3085 237.3
 7. Arnaud,Austen……. ISU JR 12 561 2015 450 2576 214.7
 8. Florence, Nick…… BU FR 9 62 1786 323 1848 205.3
 9. Robinson,Zac…….. OSU SR 12 305 2084 412 2389 199.1
 10.Lee, Zac………… NU JR 13 171 2143 405 2314 178.0
 11.Gregory, Grant…… KSU SR 11 308 1096 281 1404 127.6
 12.Thomas, Daniel…… KSU JR 12 1265 50 251 1315 109.6

Nebraska is way overrated to win the North, Mizzou should be the favorite there. K-State will finish 2nd in the North, mainly because Nebraska won’t field an offense, and the Suh-centric defense won’t have Suh.

Mizzou has had as rough of an offseason as I’ve seen since Ricky Clemons, scholar-athlete, was lecturing his female companions on the virtues of that TV classic, Roots. This coupled with Nebraska’s fairly easy schedule and Mizzou’s 4 game gauntlet in the middle of the season, has me thinking that the Fuskers take the North. I’ve never seen a school that takes as many shots to the gnads as my beloved Mizzou. That being said, like Sheriff Buford T. Justiss and his patrol car that has seen too many run-ins with the Bandit, MU will keep pursuing that ever elusive holy grail of being a big-time player.

I nominate MizzouDude99 for a roster spot on Atomic Teeth. Atleast a 10 day contract.

MD99, I like Mizzou to have a good year, but that 4 game stretch you alluded to, Aggie-OU-Neb-TT (in some order), is a conferencee championship killer. Gabbert is a stud and I think he has a breakout year.

And Aldon Smith can have my baby.