The Boise State - Virginia Tech Football Game: The False Kingmaker

I could see a lot of scoring in this game, or at least efficient offense. Virginia Tech loves to run the quarters-check coverage OU uses that allows them to be aggressive with their safeties which could play right into Boise’s hands in their play-action and trick game that could really punish over-eager safeties.

I would think that their success against the Oregon ground attack would represent some aptitude for stopping Tech. At the least they could gang up on them with an 8-man front and make Taylor beat their Free Safety, whoever that is.

BYU declares independence effective June 30, 2011. Will play other sports in the WCC. Strange stuff in college football these days.

Couldn’t agree more – genius game for both teams.
I’ll be rooting for VT though since they actually have a chance to lose later in the season, whether it be to Miami or in some in conference upset.

Excellent article. Leave it to Scipio to find the new angle to this key matchup.

I never would have thought I had read or heard the phrase " Although the Hokies lack TCU’s overall quality on defense " outside the Oui Lounge and not uttered by some drunken Phi Kapp playing quarters. More proof what anyone with sense in Ft Worth knew. A&M hired the wrong TCU coach.

Sorry to derail the thread.

I love me some LeGarrette Blount.

Fuck you smurfs.

I wouldn’t sell Boston College short, that game is no gimme for an VT team that seems to have problems on the road. BC is not Alabama but they will be better than a UNC team with 20 players kicked off the team and no offense to begin with.

What are the odds that Ryan Williams punches a Boise State player?

If there’s anything we learned about the ACC, it’s that they always seem to find ways to lose to each other. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Va Tech loses to BC, NC State, Wake Forest, or even Duke. Boise has a much easier WAC road to hoe if it can get by Oregon State as well.

Plus, I love me some Beamer ball and Enter Sandman. I’m rooting for the East in this one.

Boise got real lucky that this match-up was put in isolation where everyone will be watching. If this game gets played on 9/11, along with Miami/tOSU, PSU/Bama, FSU/OU and all the other amazing match-ups, it gets lost in the shuffle to an extent.

Usually I tend to think VT stinks up the joint in games with such a big amount of pressure, but I was thoroughly impressed by their dismantling of a hot Miami team last year. I’d probably be inclined to take the Beamers in this one.

Excellent breakdown, Tex.

I like the Hokies here 34-21. My gut initially said 31-20, but this is essentially a home game for VT.

Kudos for recognizing the Boise’s heartbeat is the run. I have no doubt that if Boise were in the Big-12 or the SEC, it would consistently be one of the top 3 in either league. It just wouldn’t go unscathed based on the week-to-week pounding of the schedule. Too many people characterize the Broncos on the Hook-and-Lateral and Statue-of-Liberty plays, and miss the downhill running. (Funny, these same people also assume that Florida’s recent Tebow teams were pass-wacky air-raid, but there was more power running in the schemes.)

@jc25 – You’re right about the ACC’s penchant for eating their own. Paul Johnson’s Georgia Tech team is an irritant to that league, because that offense is hard to prepare for in just one week of practice. The Yellowjackets will sting some teams through the regular season, but will get smoked in the bowl game by a team that can properly prepare for the scheme.

I like Boise to blow out Va Tech. Va Tech hasn’t been able to throw the ball successfully in about a century and Boise has had all off season to practice for that running game. See what happened against Oregon. Boise can actually move the ball through the air. Boise wins comfortably. Take Boise and the points.

Re Ike: Kudos for recognizing the Boise’s heartbeat is the run. I have no doubt that if Boise were in the Big-12 or the SEC, it would consistently be one of the top 3 in either league.

Using 2009 stats, Boise would have ranked #5 in the SEC in total yards. Factor that along with the typical defenses Boise faced. But the point about their peak success as a function of an effective rushing game remains.

Even so, I still think of them as a timing and rhythm based offense. Anytime I see a QB passing stat like a 39-3 td/int ratio, it’s hard to discount concise timing and rhythm as a key element in overall scheme. To me this is where field and location play a more important role on the predictive scale. It’s a disadvantage for a team reliant on precise execution to go from fast synthetic turf in a high and dry environment to natural grass and uncommonly stewy humidity.

Hardly a perfect comparison, but when was the last time a ripping Texas Tech offense beat a generally physical defense on grass outside of their arid climate ? When was the last time Boise did it? For some teams, a little bit of added drag has a ripple effect.

Using 2009 stats, Boise would have ranked #5 in the SEC in total yards rushing.

@triplehorn – No problem.

To clarify for myself, I wasn’t talking just about BSU’s running game. I’m saying that over a five year span in either the Big-12 or SEC, the Broncos would likely rank third (Behind UT/OU or Bama/FL). In a given five-year period, it might even win a conference title once. But it wouldn’t dance undefeated every single year, nor would it benefit from avoiding the nicks and scrapes that players in the better BCS leagues accumulate over the course of the season.

If you think about it, in the last decade or so Boise is 84-4 versus unranked opponents, and 6-7 versus ranked opponents. That’s about what you’d expect from a team that is not quite in the top tier, but knocking on the door.

In a ten-game series this year against Texas A&M, I’d pick Boise to win seven of those. They’d take Ole Miss seven out of ten, and would likely split with Georgia. I don’t know very many people who are touting Georgia as a serious national championship contender — which speaks to the truth behind this article. (In 10-game series against Bama and Texas, I’d give Boise two each.)

Who the fuck names their kid after a car part. “Tyrod” really?

His mama … who I’ve heard is a good wench.

You’d think Petersen could afford to keep his wives in better surroundings.

You had me at

“Boise State will be facing an inexperienced Hokie D with only 4 returning starters. Boise State’s complexity and emphasis on assignment football should confound the Hokies at times, but, as always, their ability to throw and run their trick plays is dependent on their underrated running game. It sets the table for everything. Ten returning starters, 4 out of 5 returning on OL, a stable of RBs, and an experienced QB in Kellen Moore with a 39-3 TD:INT ratio isn’t a bad place to start.”

I’m with Primetime. Boise runs away from the over-rated inevitable averageness that is VT.

Paint Kellen Moore blue and he could play a smurf on TV. Blend in with his home turf and go all stealth and shit.

If Tech does anything except try to shorten the game and stick to their physical/power advantages, then Boise has a chance. To me, this is a coaching game – if Beamer & VT prepare properly and have the confidence to stick to their plan for 4 quarters, then this game is not close.

Taylor made better decisions last year. If he progresses similarly this year, Boise & the ACC are in trouble.

Last year: Kaepernick vs. BSU – 16 carries, 31 yards
does that sound like BSU had containment issues?

I hate the argument “If Boise played in the SEC/Big Ten they would not be as successful and would win about six to seven games” If they played in those conferences they would recruit better athletes and better players. When clowns in the national media and local media like Colin Cowherd and Paul Finebaum spew that non sense it makes me angry. Its so untrue and inaccurate. If they can win 11 games every year with Washington State and Washington rejects then they should be able to have success near that level with BCS caliber recruits.

I don’t see Boise having an embarrassing 4th qtr chokejob the way Nebraska did last year.

Richard – yes, they did. Those stats also include 2 sacks for -21 yards and 2-3 QB sneaks.
 
What’s more important is the overplay he forced from the Boise DEs.
 
Kaepernick’s presence completely opened up the inside running game as the Boise DEs were forced to play loose containment techniques outside the tackles with no squeeze down.
 
Nevada rushed for 242 yards overall averaging 5.5 yards per carry, including 160 from Tauau.

PrimeTime -
 
Maybe they wouldn’t. Some systems aren’t duplicable with different types of kids and program expectations.
 
There’s a reason Dan Hawkins was wildly successful at Boise and wildly unsuccessful at Colorado.
 
And how about Dirk Koetter?

Raise your hand if Petersen reminds you of Clint Howard (Ron Howard’s brother)?

Keep your hand raised if both of their faces scare the crap out of you.

What blows my mind is that Boise State continually gets street cred for a bowl win following the 2006 season. Nice statue of liberty play…we get it…THAT WAS FOUR FUCKING YEARS AGO!!! Everyone on that roster is now the most annoying potato farmer in their town, spinning yarns about the time they ran with the big boys and proposed to the cheerleader on national TV.

Four fucking years of run for a one decent victory is enough already. Know who else beat OU that year? Colt McCoy as a FRESHMAN and he didn’t need a goofy hook & lateral.

If all it took was a 4 year old victory over OU to put you in the National Title race, we would be pretty much set until 2015.

I said it elsewhere, but if TCU had stuck to the running game, they would have pounded Boise into submission in the Fiesta Bowl. They had to get cute and prove that Andy Dalton could toss it with the best of them. Wrong.

I don’t see Beamer making that same mistake, and Va Tech’s running game is much different than Oregon’s as Scipio suggests. If Va Tech’s line can control the line of scrimmage, I am in the 31-17 Va Tech camp on this one. I wouldn’t be surprised if VaTech had the ball close to 40 minutes of the game.

Va Tech’s defense lost a lot, but when was the last time this defense was suspect? I fully expect they’ll be their usual top 20ish selves if not better when all is said and done.

Is it wrong that I hope Boise’s QB gets hurt this year? It would be REALLY cool for Colt to have his Colt 45 record in the books for more than 1 year.

Dan Hawkins reminds me of Lumpy Rutherford. Can’t really explain it.

Navy Horn: I am with you. People forget that Boise hit OU in the face, like Utah did to Alabama, but OU recovered. Boise might be as good this year as that 2006 team was, but I wonder about Boise’s ability to catch a team off balance if they happened to be playing in a BCSCG.

Va Tech wins and becomes everyone’s Number 2 team. Unfortunately for Beamer, they ain’t getting through that gauntlet at the end of the season. That;’s rough.

OTOH, if they can run that gauntlet, I wouldn’t complain too much if they made the title game. Yeah, the middle of their schedule is cake, but they’ll have done enough that I can live with them playing for all the marbles.

Of course, if Va Tech holds true to form, they’ll win Sunday, Beat Ga Tech, then lose to which ever of UNC or Miami has disappointed more.

Er… win Monday.

That’s it, it’s time for beer.

@Primetime

I am smack in the middle of SEC country (and I’m on first-name basis with Finebaum, from my time covering the Scrushy hearings on his show.) I think his alleged homerism is overblown, he often lets his callers vent and his “crime” (or genius) is not shouting them down and treating them like Jim Rome.

I also didn’t say that Boise State is a seven-win team in the SEC. I said they would be in the upper quartile of the SEC and/or Big-12(10). Usually, that entails at least 9 or maybe 10 wins a year, with one or two losses in the conference. That’s a successful program.

Think about that for a moment. I just said that Boise would be one of the top 3 teams in the SEC, where three different schools have won five national championships in the last seven years.

Do that math, and tell me that I am dissing them.

@Ike

I’m not dissing you per say, I’m just dissing the uneducated blowhards who just make the blanket assumption that Boise would be the Vanderbilt of the SEC.

It doesn’t matter who you play, winning 10-11 games for about 10 years straight now is impressive. If it was so we would have a lot of schools from non-BCS conferences going on a run like a Boise.

I listen to the finebaum show occasionally because he has some interesting guests and has Kirk Herbstreit and Gary Danielson on weekly and they provide decent insight. As a host he does pretty much nothing. He offers no real insight or smart opinion. He is only good at saying a certain coach should be fired.

He isn’t a homer he is just a bandwagon hopper. When Auburn was good he was trashing ‘Bama, their fans, and their coach. Once Saban came into town he started kissing his ass and calling him the greatest and started making fun of Auburn. His shtick is letting red neck callers run his show. Rome’s is calling his listeners clones.

Boise State would not be the Vanderbilt of the SEC. They could never be able to point to strong academics while making excuses for their outclassed football team.

Boise State would be lucky to be north of .500 in the SEC. They simply don’t have the depth, and their schedule masks that.

The argument that Boise would have better players if in the SEC or another power conference may be correct, but it admits that Boise lacks those players now. This year’s rankings are not supposed to be based on how well teams do for a squad given circumstance X. They are supposed to be based on how good teams are irrespective of off-field obstacles.

Boise State is such a joke. And this is coming from a guy who has won lots and lots of money betting on them. The videogame numbers Moore puts up is ridiculous, as the scores they throw up there. I’ve always contend that if you put the shittiest team in the Big 12 in the WAC, they would go .500 or BETTER. When Nevada and their Pistol (yeah, right) offense is the best you can come up with as Boise’s toughest WAC game, you know you’re not even playing in a real conference.

Boise being in the Top 5 in all preseason polls is simply a bunch of media hacks getting together to decide to create a storyline for 2010. I suppose it must be hard to actually hunt down legitimate football stories, they’d rather manufacture one and write on it all year long. I hope Boise gets their ass kicked so these lazy fuckers will have to actually earn their paycheck.

Scipio Tex, so what you are saying is that Boise State had no problem containing Kaepernick and sacking him
twice for huge losses? Ok, let’s throw the two huge sacks out. 14 carries for 52 yards. I’m still yawning. Nevada
only has a running game, so 242 yards is much less than their almost 400yds/game average.

Navy Horn, we’ll stop living off the 2006 Fiesta Bowl when the detractors stop living off the 2005 Georgia game.
Your rule applies to both games. Am I right? Thank you.

With so much hate, Boise State must be doing something right.

Boise State is 26-1 in the last two seasons with lone loss to a Top 10 ranked TCU in the 2008 Pointsettia Bowl. If they go undefeated they’ll be 38-1 in the last three seasons. I’d say their Fiesta Bowl win over OU has little to do with this year’s hype. But it is amazing what ESPN is capable of isn’t it?

Look the Broncos basically return their entire team from a year ago that happen to finish with the highest scoring offense in the country as well as fielding a legitimate Top 15 Defense. They went undefeated in 2009 and almost everybody is back, the build up is warranted. I realize you can argue they also went untested, save for maybe Oregon and TCU, but really it’s irrelevant at this point. The pollsters and coaches agree that Boise State is Top 5 program, You can’t keep discounting because the rest of their conference blows.

Before somebody bashes me over the head with it, I already know they face a WAC slate of creampuffs. That IS NOT their fault. Hence the move the MWC, and already the MWC’s top teams are scurrying away. If they win they win, the BCS rewards winning. Don’t blame Boise State for finding the loophole and exploiting it.

Richard -
 
If you don’t understand what the word containment means or how the zone read works, just say so. No need to fly your ignorance up a flag pole.

Scipio Tex,

Kaepernick vs. BSU 2007 – 14 carries, 177 yards, 2 TD (BSU wins by 2)
Kaepernick vs. BSU 2008 – 16 carries, 70 yards, 0 TD (BSU wins by 7)
Kaepernick vs. BSU 2009 – 16 carries, 31 yards, 0 TD (BSU wins by 11)

Kaepernick vs. ND 2009 – 10 carries, 39 yards, 0 TD
Kaepernick vs. Mizz 2009 – 13 carries, 59 yards, 1 TD

Looks like Boise State shuts Kaepernick down just a little more, year by year. And no one shut him down more than BSU last year. But you’re a God, sorry to question your almighty prescience.

And he waves the flag proudly for all to see.

Kaepernick maybe be a problem to contain, but the glaring defect he has is the same shared with many other “dual-threat” QB’s; They’re not QB’s at all. They’re glorified RB’s who take the snap. Kaepernick, like most other “dual threats” is a horrible passer, thus making him a single threat that you eluded to; containment. The point I think Richard makes, although he doesn’t point it out, is that over the past three years Boise State’s plan of emphasis against Kaepernick, Diondre Borel, Jeremiah Masoli, Andy Dalton and all other “dual threats” they’ve faced, is make them prove their mettle as a true passer. All of them have failed. As evidenced by Boise State’s ZERO in the loss column.

Colt McCoy – that was a true “dual threat”

Tyrod Taylor is of the aformentioned version.

Moreover, Oregon finished last season as the 6th ranked Rushing Offense(231.69ypg) and the 8th ranked Scoring Offense(36.1ppg) on their way to the PAC-10 crown.

Against Boise State; 17 carries 31 yards 8 points total

This is a defense that lost ONE starter, and he wasn’t in the front seven.

“It was the season opener other teams lit them up throughout the season.”

TCU was the 5th ranked Scoring Offense(38.3ppg) and 5th ranked Rushing Offense(238.31ypg).

Against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl; 20 carries 36 yards 10 points total

I have a feeling Tech will win these ball game, and I sure hope I am right. That all depends on which Tech team shows up, specifically Tyrod Taylor. Otherwise, we will have to hear about Boise State all year long and why they "deserve" to be in the national championship. I do feel both teams are overrated and both will benefit on each other’s "overrated" rank. Should be an offensive shoot out in my opinion.

Yeah… About that whole “seven weeks of bye” thing…

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