BCS - Week 1 - Quick Update

by SynTex on Sep 6, 2010 11:06 AM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

We still have yet to see the biggest BCS related match up of the weekend (Boise/VT), but that game is pretty clear cut as far as NC implications.

As I've said previously, I believe Boise can make a serious NC game run as an undefeated team if: a) teams from the big boy conferences (SEC, Big 10, Big XII, and ACC) all have at least one loss, b) VT puts together a solid 10-2 type of season after losing to the Broncos, c) Oregon State puts together an 8-4 type of season after losing to the Broncos (a win over TCU sure would have helped), and d) the WAC can win a few OOC match-ups to make the conference perceived as at least mediocre in the pecking order of leagues.

So the Boise/VT game is what it is.

I'm not going to let the game's unusual Monday night timing prevent us from taking a look at how the initial weekend went for the key conferences. There is no better way in these early days to assess what is happening than to look at how the out-of-conference battles are shaping up.

The Big XII posted a surprisingly solid 9-1 record in the initial weekend of action (this counts only FBS wins and all losses... so for instance, A&M's win over SFA is not included in the victory tally).

The SEC also delivered with an 8-2 mark. The bizarre irony is that both of these leagues sit atop the Week 1 conference standings despite the fact that they each suffered a major black eye, as Ole Miss and Kansas proceeded to embarrass themselves by losing outright to their FCS patsies.

The Big 10 was the only other conference to maintain a winning record.

The ACC posted only two games that qualified for our rankings, as the league played 10 games against FCS opponents (um, what the hell??) Maryland and VT still play games tomorrow.

The MAC and CUSA went completely winless, which may not be all that surprising. The Big East suffered an embarrassing 1-4 weekend, punctuated by Pitt's notable loss at Utah.

The Pac-10 also seems to be continuing its recent trend of slow starts, with a lackluster 3-4 record.

Now let's look at developments from an individual team perspective. One may think it's foolish to look at strength-of-schedule this early in the year, but these games that were just played, although early, still count in December. Just ask any Texas or Oklahoma fan in 2008, given the minuscule final margin between them, how important each week was in the scheme of things.

Looking at the win/loss records of all opponents on each teams schedule, Iowa again appears to have a great jump on the strength-of-schedule front, with eight of its future opponents winning their games, and zero losing. Texas, Florida and Oklahoma also saw fairly solid performances by their future opponents. While Oregon's absurd 72-0 victory drew a lot of attention, the Ducks have problems in the BCS computers looming given the pathetic 2-5 performance of their future opponents (obviously highly related to the Pac-10's weakness described above). And at the absolute bottom, as we would expect, we see TCU and Boise State's schedules have started quite poorly.

At this ridiculously early stage of the year, the season has a 2008 feel to it. The Big XII and SEC contenders can benefit greatly if their leagues continue the momentum. Keep an eye on Iowa.... if they can knock off Ohio State later in the year, they might create some noise in the BCS standings much like they did a year ago. I continue to believe TCU has remote odds to get into the NC picture barring absolute chaos (think 2007 where two loss teams are still contending for the NC).

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Thinks.

by The Thanker on Sep 6, 2010 12:48 PM CDT reply actions

I felt that one of the headlines from the weekend is that the Big East has been officially eliminated from BCS championship game contention…before Labor Day. Pitt, Cincinnati, and UConn all lost, and those are likely to be the top 3 from the conference. Since the Big East will never get a team into the BCS Championship game if there is a 1-loss bake-off against the SEC, Big XII, or Big Ten, you can already stick a fork in them. This is notable because Cincinnati went undefeated last season and would have played Alabama in the BCS title game had Hunter Lawrence not made the 46-yarder against Nebraska.

If Va.Tech can win tonight, we’re looking at the Big East being eliminated from BCS Champ contention, along with Boise State. That would leave the winner of the TCU vs Utah game as the only non-AQ contender for the BCS Champ game (and both those schools have a long way to go before getting into the conversation. Also, BYU has too many tough road games like @FSU, @ND, @TCU, and @ Utah to be considered realistically for BCS Champ game).

As a Texas fan, I think it’s important that these non-AQs all lose a game along the way, because I don’t see an undefeated SEC, Big XII, not Big Ten team emerging this season. It’ll be a group of one-loss teams vying for the two slots.

nothing like worry prematurely, huh?

by Glass Joe on Sep 6, 2010 3:23 PM CDT reply actions

Glass Joe, good observations. You are right, stick a fork in the Big East. Cincy was constantly in the conversation last year, but there’s no way anyone is going to emerge from that league now. Even if WVU ran the table they will be burdened by the perception of the league.

Non-AQ contenders losing a game not only helps in NC posturing, but will also be huge in the at-large sweepstakes as well.

by SynTex on Sep 6, 2010 3:38 PM CDT reply actions

Great stuff.

I mentioned some time ago to a friend that does similar BCS projections that college football should pray for a Boise State loss so we don’t have to deal with the media MNC push. Va Tech will drop games later because that’s what Va Tech does.

Although the Big XII started the year 9-1, I thought the games all looked rough. Colorado’s win was instructive. Hansen played well, they have some defense, and they look a lot like a team poised to make a minor bowl game. Their OOC schedule gets rough quickly though.

Nebraska caught my eye as the team to watch, particularly if they can keep getting performance from Martinez.

by Scipio Tex on Sep 6, 2010 3:51 PM CDT reply actions

The Google ad I get is Asiandating.com. Which is awesome.

by Minnesotahorn on Sep 6, 2010 4:01 PM CDT reply actions

Agree on Boise State losing tonight…it’s critical to many teams (likely Texas included) that Boise is out of the BCS Champ game equation, because any team that goes undefeated this season is going to be in Scottsdale in January. But, if Va Tech can eliminate Boise tonight, than I think you’ll see 2 teams with one-loss each from the major conferences meet in Scottsdale. Translation: Texas can drop the game on October 16th and still be in Scottsdale if we win the rest of them (although we’d be looking at a one-loss bakeoff with tOSU, Bama, and possibly an ACC team).

by Glass Joe on Sep 6, 2010 4:19 PM CDT reply actions

The Google ad I get is Asiandating.com. Which is awesome.

We have software that instinctively knew where to direct you to find someone you can look in the eye when meeting.

by srr50 on Sep 6, 2010 4:36 PM CDT reply actions

ACC will only get a one loss team in if it is miami or vtech (and the vtech loss is not to bsu). We must beat ou, but may be able to get by with an nu loss provided we demolish them or a one loss mizzu team in the big xii champ game.

by uthookem on Sep 6, 2010 4:39 PM CDT reply actions

I can’t say I’m really concerned about the BCS for this Texas team. Winning the league is my goal.

by Scipio Tex on Sep 6, 2010 4:49 PM CDT reply actions

I don’t think this is a BCS Champ caliber Texas vintage either, but in my mind, both the SEC and Big XII are so far down from typical standards this year, that with USC out of contention, a one-loss Texas team that wins the Big XII Championship will likely wind-up somewhere in the top 3-4 seasons end. If the 2007 LSU team can win a MNC, then anybody can.

by Glass Joe on Sep 6, 2010 5:31 PM CDT reply actions

We have software that instinctively knew where to direct you to find someone you can look in the eye when meeting.

So that’s why I keep getting Amazon.com.

Anyway, go Boise, sow chaos in the BS system.

by Big feet on Sep 6, 2010 5:37 PM CDT reply actions

Dear word, the Big East makes the MWC look like the SEC. I think if we tossed them aside it could keep the others at bay. Never happen, I realize, but jeeze, they are a joke.

by merkin on Sep 6, 2010 11:00 PM CDT reply actions

You’re damn good, SynTex.

BC just keeps finding quality contributors—good show, Sailor and company.

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