Predicting the 2010 NFL Season
The league opens play this Thursday with an excellent Minnesota @ New Orleans match-up in the Superdome. We'll be treated to Brett Favre's glorious choke on a replay loop pre-game, mid-game, and, perhaps, post-game. I am pleased. MinnesotaHorn is not. That also means it's time for me to tackle the ambitious project of projecting how this season will play out.
I decided to take on predicting the season records and playoff chances for every team in the NFL. Instead of casually eyeballing some rosters and throwing out an approximation, as most sane people would, I decided to play out the season - all 512 games. Then I looked back at total divisional strength over the last three years, the last three drafts, and assessed the free agent moves to detect any momentum trends, looked at infrastructure (DL, OL, CBs), and then looked at each team's skill position triangles (QB, RB, WR).
Seven hours later....
And here's what I came up with:
NFC South, NFC West
NFC East, NFC North
AFC South, AFC West
AFC East, AFC North
Some macro observations:
1. Last year the AFC was considerably better than the NFC, despite the NFC champion New Orleans winning the Super Bowl. I predict a lessening of that gap in 2010, though the AFC will still narrowly win the head-to-head total.
2. The NFC East, AFC North, AFC East are the most competitive divisions in football. The divisional title will be settled in each by a handful of plays in head-to-head match-ups. One play could be the difference between divisional champion and no playoff bid. Should make for fun races. The NFC East is the only division where my projected last place team - Washington - has a very legitimate shot at the Wild Card if they can catch a break here or there.
3. The reduction of the Roethlisberger suspension made me change my projected division winner in the AFC North from Baltimore to Pittsburgh. And bump the Bengals from the playoffs. These teams will bemoan Roethlisberger's lack of committed rapiness.
4. The sorriness of the NFL's five worst teams: the Rams, the Bucs, the Bills, the Browns, the Seahawks - cannot be overstated. Even in a league that strives with all of its heart through the draft and scheduling to make everyone at least 6-10, it shows that bad habits will always squander charity.
5. Neither the Lions, Raiders, or the Chiefs made my Bottom 5 franchises. There is hope in these cities. Little, tiny, eentsy slivers of hope that will be stomped out cruelly the minute they have an injury to their QBs. The Lions improved themselves considerably on the DL, QB, RB, and WR in the last three drafts. They will be fun to watch.
6. The Cowboys and Texans both have brutal schedules. Check out more on the Cowboys here on our fine blog, Ring of Honor.
7. The highest beta team in the league is the Tennessee Titans. Any result between 6-10 and 12-4 would not surprise me at all. Most other teams in the league have a 2 game variability. The Titan defense and offense are both highly volatile. Arizona is my second most volatile team and a 10-6 division champion or a 6-10 slog are equally reasonable propositions.
8. I bolded the divisional winners and wild card in my predictions on Fantake.
NFC Playoff teams - Saints, Cowboys, 49ers, Packers, Vikings, Giants
AFC Playoff teams - Colts, Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, Jets, Ravens
Go on over to the Fantake.com mothership and comment away. Or we can chat here.
Thanks.
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Eagles rather than Giants.
Dolphins rather than Jets.
I think the Ravens still win the AFC North and that it’s a toss-up between the Steelers and Bengals. Every other year, the Steelers show up. It’s a confounding trend.
I like my Niners to win the division by two games, though they’ll only be 10-6. That division is the Sunbelt Conference.
It’s been a long long time since both representatives of the previous Super Bowl made it back to the playoffs the following year. That’s another confounding trend. How many of you goofs are going to check me on that?
Texans go 9-7 and miss the playoffs, though they’ll be a better team than last year.
by magnusbleuveigner on Sep 8, 2010 4:05 PM CDT reply actions
Nice work Scip, it is about 6 hours and 45 minutes more than I care to put into studying the NFL.
The sorriness of the NFL’s five worst teams: the Rams, the Bucs, the Bills, the Browns, the Seahawks – cannot be overstated
I do think you are underestimating the overall suckiness of the NFC West — Seattle’s fans will find fool’s gold with Pete and the Seahawks this year in terms of more wins than the talent level would normally allow.
by Steve Ross on Sep 8, 2010 4:07 PM CDT reply actions
magnus -
The NFC East is basically, like, just a matter of opinion, dude. I chose the Cowboys and Giants because they represent the best combination of upside and experience. The Giants really were cursed last year. I actually had the Eagles winning the division the first time I ran this exercise, but then I reconsidered. The defenses win out.
I like the Dolphins a pick a lot, but the Jets are too fucking good. And when they get Santonio Holmes, you’ll see a late season run after a slow start. Look at the Jet infrastructure at CB and OL – no one else in the league can touch them. People are way too focused on Sanchez.
If anything, the Dolphins might supplant NE if the Patriot D doesn’t step up or Moss finally starts to show his age.
The Texans are always a better team that last year. While missing the playoffs.
Steve -
I projected the Seahawks to 5 wins. That’s 2 more than what they would have in any other division in the NFL. As I wrote in my preview, they also have a considerable home field and time zone advantage over visitors from the East and Midwest.
by Scipio Tex on Sep 8, 2010 4:24 PM CDT reply actions
“I actually had the Eagles winning the division the first time I ran this exercise, but then I reconsidered. The defenses win out.”
I endorse anything that upsets Vasherized. This should do it.
by magnusbleuveigner on Sep 8, 2010 4:53 PM CDT reply actions
Why do hate everything good and pure about America?
In all seriousness I got stuck with His Wranglerness in my fantasy football league due to internets failure at my house and it makes me want to hurt the innocent.
by Minnesotahorn on Sep 8, 2010 4:54 PM CDT reply actions
Minnesota -
His Wranglerness thrives on sticking it up people’s asses who doubt him, until some final moment of sweet vindication with a playoff choke. So his fantasy value may still be OK, even without Rice. Berrian will catch some deep balls, at least.
Don’t laugh at me, but Matt Stafford is available in many leagues and as a situational play, he’s going to throw up some 42-25-325-3-2 stat lines which, for fantasy purposes, are good stuff.
by Scipio Tex on Sep 8, 2010 4:57 PM CDT reply actions
In all seriousness I got stuck with His Wranglerness in my fantasy football league due to internets failure at my house and it makes me want to hurt the innocent.
Oh please

by srr50 on Sep 8, 2010 5:05 PM CDT reply actions
Why does Minnesotahorn look so big in that picture?
by Scipio Tex on Sep 8, 2010 5:13 PM CDT reply actions
Chuck Klosterman picks the Titans to win the Super Bowl!
Does anyone know who Dave Eggers likes?
by Woody Bombay on Sep 8, 2010 5:43 PM CDT reply actions
Eggers like his brother Topher, Sudanese immigrants, and pirates.
Also narcissistic ramblings in the guise of a self-deprecating-ish novel.
by Toadvine on Sep 8, 2010 6:05 PM CDT reply actions
That amateur doesn’t even have the bedspread.
by Minnesotahorn on Sep 8, 2010 6:22 PM CDT reply actions
The Seahawks are going to be stunningly bad. I am not even that confident they will split with the Rams.
Things are so bad, they made six roster moves AFTER the cut down to 53. That says something, and it isn’t good.
Oh, and the offensive line coach, zone blocking guru Alex Gibbs, suddenly and unexpectedly retired last week, possibly becausethe thought of coaching a rag-tag group (and one high potential rookie) in the finer points of the outside zone all year seemed like a big waste of time, upon sober reflection.
Fortunately, this awful conference has one good thing going for it: I drafted the 49ers defense for my fantasy team. Singletary’s defense should look great, if for the simple reason that they get to play the Seahawks and Rams 25% of the time.
by RedmondLonghorn on Sep 8, 2010 7:09 PM CDT reply actions
????
Okay, the broad outlines of the season are set.
You mean they’re gonna fly teams around the country 256 times to stage games in front of more than 30 million fans with 12 or 20 times that number watching on TV over the next four-plus months just to tweak the final outcome a tiny bit?
by OldTimeHorn on Sep 8, 2010 7:34 PM CDT reply actions
To paraphrase Scip, the Texans are the Brazil of the NFL: They are the future of the league, and they always will be.
by clarky on Sep 9, 2010 9:52 AM CDT reply actions
I’ve actually got Stafford as being a top 10 fantasy QB this year. Dude is going to blow up numbers wise (as long as one of his joints doesn’t blow up physically.)
I’ve got the under/over on games until Pete Carroll is fired in Seattle at 44 (2.5 seasons exactly). Dude is a terrible coach who was entirely dependent on recruiting superior talent. Just see what he did in New England, or for that matter how much USC underachieved given their talent level, especially after Norm Chow left.
by hodad on Sep 9, 2010 10:50 AM CDT reply actions
Excellent take, though I disagree about Pitt winning the North.
Agree on TN’s volatility.
Was it Tom Jackson or really Randy Jackson who picked the Texans for the Super Bowl? Dawg.
by Pitchy on Sep 9, 2010 2:04 PM CDT reply actions
Pitchy -
Who do you like in the North?
Ed Reed is out for 6 weeks with his hip. The Ravens will really miss Sergio Kindle.
The Bengals?
by Scipio Tex on Sep 9, 2010 2:29 PM CDT reply actions
Bengals. But that’s more a gut suspicion that Pitt will again under perform than a belief in Palmer or Lewis (or the other Palmer, for that matter.) I think TN will grab a wildcard, with or without Haynesworth.
But yeah, I wouldn’t bet money on any of that.
by Pitchy on Sep 9, 2010 2:57 PM CDT reply actions

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