Assessing the BCS Landscape -- Week 2

I always look forward to these.

Two things. Most/some of the computers won’t be punishing teams for the FCS loss, correct?
Second, does the SOS projection include potential CCG’s? Because if Texas or OU have to play Nebraska in the CCG that vaults their SOS even more. (especially when OSU won’t be in one this year)

The Boise State Love Affair is already too torid for it to be stopped. Do you really think if they stay undefeated they will be leap-frogged by 1 loss teams from major conferences? No way the media let’s it happen.

OC, good questions.

Colley Matrix, Billingsley and AH do not model sub-FBS teams, if I’m remembering right. I’m pretty sure the other 3 computers all track FCS and some cases other divisions as well.

I am not yet including SOS benefit from CCG’s. I usually do that in mid-October when we have some sense of clarity of which teams look like they’ll win their conference divisions.

So are we allowed to start chanting Big 12 at our games now?

Dude, the love affair is going to fade as the year goes on. And the schedule/computer influence will get more and more negative.

On the topic of TCU, I read Dr. Saturday (I really like his blog) said that he thinks TCU is now a stronger NC contender than Boise. I agree with that, but I don’t agree with him on the extent to which games against BYU and Air Force will help TCU. Those just aren’t very big name games. Utah really needs to step up for TCU. If TCU beats Baylor, they could use having the Bears put together a 7-5 type season.

On the topic of TCU, I read Dr. Saturday (I really like his blog) said that he thinks TCU is now a stronger NC contender than Boise. I agree with that, but I don’t agree with him on the extent to which games against BYU and Air Force will help TCU. Those just aren’t very big name games.

Let’s see how Air Force plays in Norman this weekend before writing them totally off.

OU or Air Force?

TCU really needs to be cheering for Air Force. An Air Force upset of OU, followed by OU winning the big 12, sure would make TCU look good.

I love Boise’s current situation. You just know they’re going to be going for two point conversions and beating people by 50 now for style points just to try to get back lol. Love it.

@Dude,

The “love affair”, as you say, with Boise is only good for NOW, the beginning of the year, when they make for a great story for the media. By the end of the year, the media, who all have allegiances to other schools and conferences *cough Big 12 *cough SEC *cough will have come back into the fold. Boise is a story, nothing more; all those reporters who voted them to the top will have voted them out by the end of the year.

I like Dr. Saturday also.

But i still see TCU as a longshot. Last year TCU had the benefit of playing Clemson who was a 9 win team. They also beat a ranked BYU last year who had a strong national perception b/c of the win against OU. The win over ranked Utah last year also helped.

For 2010, it looks like BYU will be unranked… so they need Oregon State to play REALLY strong as well as Baylor. I just don’t see it. Utah will be a relative wash compared to last year.

The conference as a whole was 21-15 in OOC match ups last year. So far this year they are 4-6. Not likely to have the same pull with the comps as they did last year and EVEN last year TCU was behind the one-loss SEC champ game loser. Last year their best win was against 11-2 BYU. Does such a team exist on this years schedule. Only time will tell.

That pretty much sums up my thoughts on TCU, OC. I don’t see the schedule for them to make a run.

Definitely is worth revisiting if Air Force does the unthinkable against OU.

Chipper: “…does the SOS projection include potential CCG’s? Because if Texas or OU have to play Nebraska in the CCG that vaults their SOS even more. (especially when OSU won’t be in one this year)”:

How great would it be for NU to vault either UT or OU over tOSU – courtesy the Big XII CCG – right before they pack-up for the Big 10? “Hey Big 10 pep club – give a hearty welcome to the Huskers!” The only thing that would be even better is if the Big 10 contender then loss in their CCG the following year while neither OU nor UT had to play in one.

Three other important points on the BCS Championship front.
1. The ACC has joined the Big East has being officially eliminated from the BCS Championship game contention. This INCLUDES having no shot in a one-loss bakeoff against any other one-loss teams from the BCS conferences. So, two of the six BCS conferences have already been eliminated.

2. Of the 5 non-AQ schools who could sneak into the BCS Championship game if they go undefeated, two of the five were beaten on Saturday (BYU and Notre Dame). That leaves Boise, Utah, and TCU. Since two of those schools play each other, we’re effectively down to two non-AQ spoilers.

3. I think it’s great for schools like Texas, who may be one-loss conference champs, that Michigan is re-emerging as a legit program. Why? Because tOSU now has more competition to lose a game. For years, I’ve felt that tOSU had the easiest path to a BCS Champ game, as they were head and shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten, and only had to avoid a non-conference loss to a Texas or USC (see 2006 and 2007). However, with Michigan coming back to decent, tOSU has to get through @ Wisconsin, @ Iowa, and Michigan to go undefeated. One loss for tOSU, and they likely fall behind a one-loss SEC champ and a one-loss Big XII champ in the bakeoff.

Great post Glass joe. Picking at nits here, but your premise #1 could be false. It is POSSIBLE that we could have another 2007 where a 2-loss team qualifies for the MNC. Highly unlikely, but there doesn’t seem to be the CLEAR frontrunner this year as we have seen in years past. Maybe this could be another 2007 after all.

It is not inconceivable for Texas to have losses to Tech & Nebraska.
OU to have losses to Texas and Big XII champ Nebraska.
Nebraska to have losses to Mizzou and Washington
Ohio State to have losses to Iowa and Michigan.
Oregon to lose to USC and Arizona…

You get the picture. It COULD happen. :)

I think Ohio St is safe as I don’t think any Big 12 team goes undefeated. Hopefully there is a log jam of undefeateds of the Big 12, SEC, Big 10, and Boise. Having a big name like Ohio st and the media darling that is Boise get screwed, will only help our incremental move towards a playoff.

ACC is done. The conference always produces odd match-ups that result in wacky upsets the moment someone starts to emerge from the pack. The ACC puts 7 or 8 teams in minor bowls every year, and 1 lucky lottery winner gets to go to Miami. Nothing ever changes on that front.

I actually think a resurgent Michigan helps Ohio State’s cause. Texas-Oklahoma. Florida-Alabama. In the curent system, you need a conference dance partner, preferably a name-brand. Look at this way — \when Michigan is down, that game becomes a no-win for OSU relative to expectations and attention. If Michigan comes into that game with 8 wins and a serious Heisman candidate, then OSU only has to post a W to get some media bang out of the effort.

From UT’s perspective, the Baylor-TCU game is the second most important game this weekend. If Baylor can off TCU, a team ranked above UT will fall to a team that is certain to lose to UT. That go a long way to putting UT’s fate into its own hands.

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