Forecasting The Big 12 South - Sep. 13, 2010

by TaylorTRoom on Sep 13, 2010 11:20 AM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

I posted this a few times last year. Here's how it works. I use Sagarin's "Predictor" rating for the different teams on Big 12 South schedules, to estimate point spreads (I'm giving 3 points for home field). Using his ratings also removes my personal bias (Note- in week 2, his relative ratings are not as good as they will be in a few more weeks). These predicted point spreads can then be used to estimate straight up win probabilities. Add the win probabilities of all games together, and you have an estimate for season wins. I also estimate the chances of different records, based on some gross assumptions and binomial statistics.

A few notes- he has Texas at about #8 in the country, which seems fair based on results so far. His ratings are not that impressed with Nebraska. Texas is favored in all of its remaining games, but three (TT, OU, and NU) are basically tossups. UCLA looks weaker than we expected. Cincy doesn't appear to be any tougher than USAFA for OU. The Ags and Razorbacks look evenly matched.

Parity is the byword in the Big 12 this year, with most of the teams not too strong and not too weak. There is a lot to be gained for any team that can improve this year, or make the big plays in close games. Even though Texas is favored or even in all of the remaining games, the tool predicts a 9 - 3 season for the Horns. Thoughts?

Team	Sagarin	Opponent	Spread	Odds
Texas	86.05
	61.86	@Rice	W	1	expected	8.84
	61.99	Wyo	W	1	Conf. expect.	5.34
	80.99	@TT	-2.06	0.52	root	0.667
	61.49	UCLA	-27.56	0.87
	85.81	OU	-0.24	0.5
	79.98	@NU	-3.07	0.53	12 - 0	1.75%
	66.78	ISU	-22.27	0.85	11 - 1	8.71%
	74.21	BU	-14.84	0.7	10 - 2	19.57%
	71.56	@KSU	-11.49	0.65
	79.74	OSU	-9.31	0.62
	62.1	FAU	-26.95	0.98
	78.77	TAMU	-10.28	0.62

OU	85.81
	66.76	Utah St	W	1	expected	8.3
	79.16	FSU	W	1	Conf. expect.	5
	79.1	USAFA	-9.71	0.62	root	0.619
	69.82	@Cincy	-12.99	0.68
	86.05	UT	0.24	0.5
	66.78	ISU	-22.03	0.87	12 - 0	0.82%
	81.18	@MU	-1.63	0.52	11 - 1	5.06%
	67.74	CU	-21.07	0.85	10 - 2	14.04%
	78.77	@TAMU	-4.04	0.54
	80.99	TT	-7.82	0.59
	74.21	@BU	-8.6	0.6
	79.74	@OSU	-3.07	0.53

TAMU	78.77
	56.07	SFASU	W	1	expected	7.24
	60.56	LT	W	1	Conf. expect.	3.91
	61.22	FIU	-20.55	0.83	root	0.514
	79.74	@OSU	3.97	0.46
	78.26	Ark	-0.51	0.5
	81.18	Mizzou	-0.59	0.5	12 - 0	0.13%
	69.55	@KU	-6.22	0.57	11 - 1	1.22%
	80.99	TT	-0.78	0.5	10 - 2	5.18%
	85.81	OU	4.04	0.46	9 - 3	13.05%
	74.21	@BU	-1.56	0.52	8 - 4	21.60%
	79.98	NU	-1.79	0.52
	86.05	@UT	10.28	0.38

TT	80.99
	72.15	SMU	W	1	expected	7.58
	55.92	@UNM	W	1	Conf. expect.	3.97
	86.05	UT	2.06	0.13	root	0.567
	66.78	@ISU	-11.21	0.65
	74.21	BU	-6.78	0.58
	79.74	OSU	-4.25	0.54	12 - 0	0.11%
	67.74	@CU	-10.25	0.63	11 - 1	1.64%
	78.77	@TAMU	0.78	0.5	10 - 2	6.27%
	81.18	Mizzou	-2.81	0.53	9 - 3	18.39%
	85.81	@OU	7.82	0.41	8 - 4	24.54%
	55.76	Weber	-28.23	0.99
	74.28	UH	-9.71	0.62

BU	74.21
	46.04	SHSU	W	1	expected	6.54
	60.79	Buff	W	1	Conf. expect.	3.67
	84.55	@TCU	13.34	0.32	root	0.443
	65.91	@Rice	-5.3	0.55
	69.55	KU	-7.66	0.58
	80.99	TT	6.78	0.42	12 - 0	0.03%
	67.74	@CU	-3.47	0.53	11 - 1	0.37%
	71.56	KSU	-5.65	0.56	10 - 2	2.08%
	86.05	@UT	14.84	0.3	9 - 3	6.97%
	79.74	@OSU	8.53	0.4	8 - 4	15.31%
	78.77	TAMU	1.56	0.48
	85.81	OU	8.6	0.4

OSU	79.74
	55.27	WSU	W	1	expected	7.57
	71.29	Troy	W	1	Conf. expect.	4.11
	72.07	Tulsa	-10.67	0.63	root	0.604
	78.77	TAMU	-3.97	0.54
	55.89	@ULL	-20.85	0.83
	80.99	@TT	4.25	0.46	12 - 0	0.24%
	79.98	NU	-2.76	0.53	11 - 1	2.81%
	71.56	@KSU	-5.18	0.55	10 - 2	9.22%
	74.21	BU	-8.53	0.6	9 - 3	21.85%
	86.05	@UT	9.31	0.38	8 - 4	25.07%
	69.55	@KU	-7.19	0.58
	85.81	OU	3.07	0.47

And for fun- Nebraska

Team	Sagarin	Opponent	Spread	Odds
NU	79.98
	53.36	WKU	W	1	expected	7.67
	72.26	Idaho	W	1	Conf. expect.	4.54
	75.24	@UW	-1.74	0.52	root	0.560
	69.03	SDSU	-13.95	0.61
	71.56	@KSU	-5.42	0.55
	86.05	UT	3.07	0.47	12 - 0	0.31%
	79.74	@OSU	2.76	0.47	11 - 1	2.39%
	81.18	Mizzou	-1.8	0.52	10 - 2	8.46%
	66.78	@ISU	-10.2	0.63
	69.55	KU	-13.43	0.69
	78.77	@TAMU	1.79	0.48
	67.74	CU	-15.24	0.73

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Comments

That prediciton is about what I expected this year. Of course, that’s also what I expected in 2008 so I’m still holding out hope (yes I’ve watched the new offense, I said “hope”, not “rational belief”).

I know it is early and the computers don’t have enough data to work their magic, but I just can’t see our chance of beating Baylor at anywhere near as low as 70%. It has us at a 15 point favorite in that game- how often does a 2 touchdown favorite lose the game outright? It has to be far less than 30%.

by stuckinmn on Sep 13, 2010 11:44 AM CDT reply actions

I’m also a little confused by the numbers. We are 27.6 point favorites against UCLA and given an 87% chance of winning, but we are only 26.9 point favorites against UCF and have a 98% chance of winning.

9-3 is about what I was expecting for this year. With UCLA looking much easier than expected, I think I’d feel confident about 10-2.

That 4 game stretch that looked so tough in the summer doesn’t look nearly as daunting. Instead of 4 tough games in 5 weeks, it looks like a tough game (at Tech), opponent on the level of Rice/Wyoming/FAU at HOME (UCLA), tough game (OU), weekend off, tough game (at NU).

by UT-06 on Sep 13, 2010 11:54 AM CDT reply actions

Just noticed NU is expected to lose to UW and OSU. That is probably a function of only having 2 games of data.

by UT-06 on Sep 13, 2010 11:57 AM CDT reply actions

The UCLA odds are a typ0. They should be 98%. I’ll try to make a LOOKUP table for next time to avoid such errors.

NU is favored over UW. -2 points means a team is a 2 point favorite. I guess Sagarin has NU rated so low because, although NU looked good winning its first two games, those were two really bad teams.

by TaylorTRoom on Sep 13, 2010 12:02 PM CDT reply actions

I am curious what our predicted win totals looked like for 08 and 09 using this algorithm two games in. Throw in 06 and 07, too, I guess.

by Traffic Jelly on Sep 13, 2010 12:08 PM CDT reply actions

http://barkingcarnival.fantake.com/2009/10/26/forecasting-the-big-12-south-oct-26/

Not so bad.

by TaylorTRoom on Sep 13, 2010 12:21 PM CDT reply actions

Oops. I missed the minus sign some how on that one.

It is kind of amazing how bad the Big 12 South’s average non con SOS looks right now.
UT – 62ish
OU – low 70s
TAMU – 65ish
TTech – 63ish
Baylor – 60ish
OSU – 63ish
There are a few upper 70s, but Baylor is the only one that has one that breaks into the 80s. It is early, but it still looks bad.

by UT-06 on Sep 13, 2010 12:23 PM CDT reply actions

Sagarin has Mizzou winning the North. I like that guy.

by Phenomenal Smith on Sep 13, 2010 1:07 PM CDT reply actions

Nice work, TTR. Goes to show A&M’s season hinges on the OSU and Arky game. Win both of those and we’re poised for a nice year. With OU and Korn coming to Kyle, we could be setting up a really good season.

by Ag_in_TX on Sep 13, 2010 3:47 PM CDT reply actions

So you’re saying there’s a chance….. Undefeated baby!

by Capt. Obvious on Sep 13, 2010 3:54 PM CDT reply actions

OSU = 9-3

Loses to:

Gooners
Texass
Red Rapist.

Alamo Bowl vs Penn State.

by Boone Pickens State on Sep 14, 2010 12:44 AM CDT reply actions

If we don’t go 10 – 2 this season is basically a coaching failure based on the math above. We should at least split with the 4 teams near 80 or above and beat the remainder that lay significantly below. We should win those on talent alone.

If the coaches can’t get 2 -2 against the teams that comprise the season with the talent they are reported to recruit they are abject failures this year.

by derryl on Sep 14, 2010 8:36 AM CDT reply actions