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Week 3: Perceptions and Predictions

As they always say, "Strange things happen in Lubbock".

Tipped passes? Questionable calls? A given.

Star-divide

A few mental errors? You bet.

The issue always becomes whether a visiting squad can come into Jones Stadium and overcome these undoubted setbacks and keep enough composure to head home with a long exhale and a hard fought ‘W’.

While most fans would have enjoyed the Horns continuing the pace they set over the first 5 minutes of the game and blown out a young and rattled Tuberville team, it was actually quite exciting to watch Texas overcome staunch adversity, much of which came at their own hand.

Mistakes can, and will, be corrected.

Let’s give credit to Gilbert for keeping composure, even in the midst of watching his sack count and interception stats sinking while he helplessly stood by and watched.  Watching the national TV broadcast this week, I was almost surprised we didn’t catch a glimpse of him smacking Malcolm Williams upside the head after the 2nd quarter clang of the hands, yelling in the earhole of FozzWhitt following a 3rd quarter bonehead fumble, or in any quarter to Britt Mitchell in his personal attempt to make Tech DE Scott Smith an All-American frontrunner.  I usually have a hard time sending out props to Greg Davis for play calling and game strategy, but I really enjoyed seeing the ball thrown more than 5 yards down the field.  Loved the 9+ minute drive to put Texas up by 10 midway through the final stanza, albeit with the help by a couple of judgment lapses by Tech defenders which drew post-play penalties.

Defense was effective all evening, an assessment that I’m certain will continue or improve all season.  If this unit can eliminate a few minor mistakes per contest and continue to gel as an overall squad, they will certainly give offensive coordinators fits for the remainder of the season.  I don’t even mind the (somewhat overly) aggressive play of the likes of Blake Gideon, certainly making opposing receivers take a quick glance downfield before crossing over the middle of our secondary.  And holding Tech to less than 150 yards of total offense?  No matter how you accomplish that feat, declare the game a success.

Of course, you don’t need my analysis here to determine which of the players we have fit definition of true stud.  What so exciting is how many of them still have another 3 years of eligibility left to explore the heights of greatness.

What we need to speak about, now that the season is officially underway after 2 scrimmages, is where the Horns destiny will take them this post season, and that of the other BCS elite.  In my own order of power ranking, here’s the Nation’s Top 5:

1.     Alabama - Head and shoulders above the rest.  With the return of Mark Ingram, they may have a hard time finding a competitive game for the rest of the SEC regular season schedule.  As Ingram starts to roll up the stats in a repeat campaign for the Heisman, some games will get ugly early and often.

2.     Ohio State – Not the best team they have fielded, but certainly good enough to run the table and stave off the leapfrog effect from the 2 or 3 team immediately behind them looking for a matchup to play the defending champ.  Upset alert @ Iowa.

3.     Boise State – Continue to do the job in earning the respect of the entire voting press, but will once again fall just short.   The original BCS buster is becoming a BCS regular, but will now become the biggest argument for (at minimum) the “Plus 1” playoff alternative.  Wouldn’t it be fun to see the Broncos face the Tide in an absolute offensive throwdown for all the marbles?

4.     TCU – Froggies deserve the respect they have gained over the past couple of seasons.  It will be very hard for their players to act excited to go to an unanticipated Sugar Bowl after steamrolling the Mountain West conference, introducing a couple more cool purple and black uniform combinations along the way.  Sorry, Frogs.  You, too, deserve a playoff in a year like this.

5.     Texas – Solid, but a far cry from the elite performances of the ’05 team and even several lengths behind the above mentioned pacesetters.  Perhaps Mack Brown can make an effective lobby toward the end of the year to the voters…….hell, we’ve had that same lone 1st place vote in the AP poll for the entire year!!  While we could see 6 undefeated teams this year, if you add Oregon to these 5, I have a bad feeling that we may stumble in Lincoln in a month’s time.  Even if so, we should be able to regroup and defend the Big XII title and still guarantee the sour taste in the Huskers mouths will last all the way to the Big 10.

Post Season:

BCS Championship Game

Alabama  38                        Ohio State   17

Fiesta Bowl

Boise State  34            Texas            24

And your predictions for the title game and for our Horns??

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Good stuff, Jeff. While a W is a W, I am still bummed at what we see on O. Disjointed. I think Greg may put Will in such dire straits at some point that it could be a loss. Last year’s Big XII championship game was nearly it.

And I do think Nick Saban has a pretty good idea what he’s doing.

by Drew Dunlevie on Sep 19, 2010 11:36 AM CDT reply actions  

I think Oregon is better than any team not named Alabama. But I think they will have a chance to prove that against Stanford, so we will see next week. We have a lot of growing up to do.

hook’em

by uttuck on Sep 19, 2010 11:37 AM CDT reply actions  

Agreed. The Trees do look good too. The Pac 10 is interesting. Zona, ASU, Oregon State, USC, et al.

by Drew Dunlevie on Sep 19, 2010 11:41 AM CDT reply actions  

Stanford’s a top 10 team this year. Oregon and Bama are interchangeable at #1 or 2 at this point for me. The Sweatervests are a solid #3 with Nebraska, Boise, and TCU fighting it out to round out the top 5. Texas, Arkansas, and maybe Florida or OU rounding out the rest of the top 10.

I like Bama and Oregon in the MNC. Ducks 38 – Tide 21
I expect Texas against Arkansas in the Sugar. Horns 34 – Hogs 17
But I’m hoping for Texas in the Fiesta against Stanford. Horns 38 – Trees 10

by llogg on Sep 19, 2010 12:13 PM CDT reply actions  

Wait, dammit, I guess if Oregon goes to MNC the Rose bowl will take the #2 Pac10 team. Hmm…I guess if Texas is in the Fiesta it’s against Boise then. Horns 42- Taters 38

by llogg on Sep 19, 2010 12:15 PM CDT reply actions  

Britt Mitchell is to blocking as Brett Michaels is to match-making.

by Toadvine on Sep 19, 2010 12:20 PM CDT reply actions  

I don’t think Ingram will deserve the trophy any more than he did last year, but he might get it.

And I fully expect a loss to Nebraska. Their offense is far better than I expected it would be, and people in the stands will be firing shoulder-mounted rockets at the Horn.

by Louis L'am Jones on Sep 19, 2010 1:46 PM CDT reply actions  

Ain’t no team putting up 34 on this defense.

by nobis60 on Sep 19, 2010 2:17 PM CDT reply actions  

Prediction: Unless TN fires Jeff Fisher, the Cowboys will have VY as QB next year.

by KC's flask on Sep 19, 2010 3:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Wait, dammit, I guess if Oregon goes to MNC the Rose bowl will take the #2 Pac10 team.

They didn’t in 2004. They took Texas, not Cal.

by Bob in Houston on Sep 19, 2010 5:08 PM CDT reply actions  

If Florida is still in your top ten, you’re going purely by reputation and haven’t been paying attention.

by Stiendam Hall on Sep 19, 2010 6:07 PM CDT reply actions  

I don’t think Boise could play our schedule this year, and we have had much tougher ones, and come away without a loss. I am aware that my knowledge of football isn’t what many of yours is, but I simply can’t get over the fact that Boise and TCU play in conferences without any real competition.

TCU and Boise have one to two Bowl games per year, while the rest of the BCS teams play a full slate of conference games, and most play a conference championship game. It is simply not the same.

Next year Nebraska will be out of our conference, and we will no longer have a conference championship game; however, we are scheduling some fairly decent competition to upgrade our schedule accordingly. It is also one that will work quite well regardless of conference affiliation. I like it.

by java on Sep 19, 2010 7:27 PM CDT reply actions  

It’s hard not to like the Ducks. They are fun to watch. Still a long way to go, but they probably like most of the rest of their schedule.

I am happy to have TCU where they are (my grandfather went there). If the state produces talent like we all assume it does, then it should regularly have two teams in or very near the top 5. And the fact that neither of them is aggy is very pleasing.

by Godot on Sep 19, 2010 7:54 PM CDT reply actions  

Boise could not possibly score 34 points on this defense without 6 or 7 turnovers helping them.

Your BCS championship call looks absolutely plausible at this point. Alabama will probably have their second championship in a row, and that chaps me because, as all Texas fans know, the Longhorns would have rolled the Tide if McCoy hadn’t gone down. Ingram will win another Heisman, too, unless his backup wins it instead. Oh, hell, I bet McElroy wins it. Good god that will suck!

Yes, Nebraska worries me, too. They play at Kansas State on Thursday before they play us while we get a week off. That will be only the second legit team they play before us. We will learn much from the outcome of that game about Nebraska as a team.

OU will only score on us if we turn the ball over.

by LurkerintheDark on Sep 20, 2010 2:20 AM CDT reply actions  

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