Forecasting the Big 12 South - Sept. 20, 2010

I guess I’m surprised A&M would be a slightly favored coin flip against Mizzou right now. Or even only expected to lose by 6 points to Arkansas.

OSU has looked good offensively, but they have only beaten some very bad teams (and struggled against Troy). I don’t think they get more than 7 wins (no way they win @ KSU).

The game is in B/CS, and Missouri’s close call this weekend probably hurt them. The Ags’ Sagarin dropped a little this weekend, but they are 3 – 0, and rated not very high.

The TAMU/OSU game is a real pivot game for those programs this year.

Oh, wow. I did not see Missouri’s poor game at home this weekend. I expected them to challenge NU for the North this year. Might have been wrong there. I almost feel bad for Mizzou. They have a pretty terrible schedule. I could easily see them losing 4-5 games in a row if things just don’t go their way.

Excellent – thanks.

Two things:

1. TAMU has a roughly 14% probability of winning eight games or more. Not exactly what they thought coming into the year.

2. The model slightly favors OSU hosting Nebraska?

The Okie-lite people tell me this morning that no one can stop their offense.

It’s too early to bury the Ags or any team right now. Last year, the Ags appeared to be on their way to a 4 – 5 win season after getting blown out by KSU. Then, they blew out a favored TT team on the road, and their season started to look dramatically different. If they win at OSU, their prognosis looks a lot better. And OSU’s looks worse.

I agree with you TTR that their game next weekend is huge for both. The winner probably gets to 7 wins, 8 with a little luck. The loser is staring at the possiblity of a 5 win season.

Don’t hate too hard on the Pokes until you see them in action. The new offense has looked extremely sharp and very potent in two of the three games, albeit against inferior competition.

As a glass half-full fan, I am willing to write off OSU’s struggles against Troy due to the extreme number of TOs (5) and penalties (13) they inflicted upon themselves. Similarly, I am more apt to consider aTm’s performance against FIU (where Jerrod Johnson and their OL apparently looked terrible) a harbinger of times to come.

OSU’s defense is not elite, but they were able to shut down down an offense (Tulsa) that is ranked high by most statistical measures. Additionally, they were able to win the game against Troy despite the offense continually turning the ball over in OSU territory.

“Don’t hate too hard on the Pokes until you see them in action. The new offense has looked extremely sharp and very potent in two of the three games, albeit against inferior competition.”

The same could be said about our (A&M) defense.

Both teams are unknown quantities at this point; however, I will discourage you from getting too excited from our box score against FIU. What I saw was a team that was mentally tough enough to rally around a senior QB who was having a terrible 3 quarters. It’s one of those games that looks terrible on paper, but could actually help in the long run.

But, I’ve been (very) wrong before. Don’t mean to derail the discussion here.

South 06, you’re fine with your comments. These forecasting posts aren’t about trash talking or touting. They’re about an unbiased, dispassionate look at what the chances of different outcomes are. A week ago, the Ags looked like an above average team because they were pounding weak teams. This week, a weak team gave them a fight, and so they look average. A good showing in the next game against OSU will indicate that they are above average, and a win will keep them on pace for a nice season. A bad showing and loss will indicate the opposite.

TTR:

I was actually a bit down on OU until I saw the most recent Sagarin ratings and found that OU was the only team to beat two of Sagarin’s top 20 teams.

As for OSU, I’m still not impressed. Sagarin has their strength of schedule as 118th. In contrast, OU’s is 30th, UT’s is 54th, and Tech’s is 35th. Washington State is atrocious, and Tulsa’s defense has sucked for years. Call me October 24th after the Cowboys play Nebraska and ask about OSU at that point.

Oklahoma is the only team that has played and beaten ANYONE decent out-of-conference so far. With UT and Tech, we think we know a little more because we got to see them play each other.

With aTm, Nebraska, and OSU, we aren’t going to know much of anything till conference play. I know Washington was supposed to be good, but they lost to the same BYU team that lost to Air Force, and Jake Locker looked absolutely horrible against NU. I think Nebraska is going to be really good, but their competition so far is barely any better than what aTm and OSU have faced.

FreeDez – I think we’ll know something about A&M after the Arkansas game. Specifically, we’ll know how deep they can take one.