You Are What Your Record Says You Are
At 3-0, I’m getting a little worried…
Before I get into the overly complicated, comparative analysis, let’s consider some sobering statistics: Texas is 71st overall in passing yards, 65th overall in rushing yards, 50th in points scored, and 9th in points against. These aren’t impressive numbers for a 3-0 team that is currently ranked to make a run for the National Championship.
As sobering as those rankings are, that isn’t what has me most concerned, and it probably isn’t what’s keeping Mack Brown up at night. What concerns me, and what likely has the coaches most concerned, is the sloppy football. After last week, the Longhorns don't look very disciplined.
Penalties: UT began the season committing only 4 penalties against Rice, but then committed 9 against Wyoming . . . and then 11 against Texas Tech. Penalties kill offensive drives. The converse is also true. When a defense commits a penalty, it tends to sustain a drive. Against Texas Tech, while the UT offense was on the field, penalties killed two drives, turned what could have been a touchdown drive into a field goal, and forced UT to gamble on 4th down on yet another. When Texas Tech’s defense committed penalties, the Longhorns scored a touchdown every time: (1) their second touchdown came on a drive where TTU committed pass interference; and (2) their third touchdown came with the assistance of two TTU penalties.
Turnovers: Turnovers are game changers. We all know that. The Defense forced three turnovers against Texas Tech, and the results were (1) a touchdown, (2) one where UT gave it right back in maddening fashion, and (3) the last where Texas Tech mounts an impressive drive in the third quarter that has the potential to change the momentum in the game, but their long drive is killed by an interception.
Flip the ball, and: (1) the first tipped ball interception killed a nice drive that would have likely ended in at least a field goal (-3); (2) Gilbert’s second interception fails to take advantage of a short field (-3); (3) Gilbert’s third interception was again deep in TTU territory, and TTU took it back to the house . . . that’s at least a 10 point swing. 16 points total . . . . When Texas stopped committing turnovers, Texas started pulling away. It’s that simple.
TIPPED BALLS . . . is it anything to be concerned about? I would argue yes. There is more to offense than drawing passing routes, blocking the guys who come after the quarterback, and having a golden arm behind center. A good offense TRIES (I realize that the X’s and O’s are real people and the defense has an agenda of their own) to create passing lanes with their protection and the offensive coordinator is SUPPOSED to craft routes where the ball is being delivered in a passing lane (i.e., not over a defender's head). Too many tipped balls are dangerous and it means there is a disconnect on offense between the protection scheme and the routes being run OR it means Texas Tech did a nice job disrupting the chemistry.
The good news is, becoming a disciplined, ball protecting team is something that is correctable. It is coachable. I’m sure it was the focus of practice this week. It has to be.
It better. Until the offense catches fire, Texas can’t afford to be a mistake prone team. One need only look at Texas’s statistical rankings above to see there is a long way to go to prove the current national raking isn’t just momentum from last year’s gutsy team. But let’s look a little deeper and see what we can glean about this team. We all know it is a little dangerous to play that A barely beat B, B killed C, therefore C’s gonna beat A, but . . . my wife is watching a recorded showing of "Fashion Police" on E, so what else is there to do???
Week one, UT beat Rice . . . as it should. In that game, Gilbert threw for 172 yard. That’s pretty pedestrian. How did other passers fare against Rice? North Texas threw for 296 yards, and Northwestern threw for 307. That makes my lip sweat like I’m trying to get my Polaroid on the wall at the local wing place. Excuse making time: UT was working on its downhill running game, right? Well, perhaps it was working on it, not so effectively. It accumulated 197 yards on Rice's defense, but North Texas had 124, and Northwestern had 144.
The Statistics suggest the defense really won the game. It held Rice to 131 passing and 88 rushing. That’s better than North Texas or Northwestern did, but the Longhorns don’t aspire to be North Texas or Northwestern . . . or, I hope not.
Against Wyoming, UT threw for 222 yards. How did Boise State do against the Cowboys? They threw for 373. But the Horns are still fine tuning its running game, correct? Hmmmm. The Horns amassed 167 on the ground. Boise rushed for 156.
Again, Muschamp’s D was pretty close to lights out, holding Wyoming to 199 passing and 58 rushing. Not bad. How did Boise’s defense fare? Remember, Boise isn’t known for their defense. They only recently found one. They held the Cowboys to 156 passing and minus 21 rushing. Actually, the Longhorns have let Wyoming rush for more yards than any team to date. Southern Utah gave them only 36 yards on the ground. Why does that make me slightly worried? UCLA is a rushing team . . . like big time . . . like the exact opposite of Texas Tech . . . they pass just to keep defenses honest.
Now let’s look at Texas Tech. As noted above, I think the game was dominated by turnovers and penalties, so sometimes the statistics can be misleading in those types of games. But, we’re crunching numbers, so let’s crunch some more. Again, defense led the way. It absolutely stifled Texas Tech’s run game (minus 14). But we all know that isn’t Texas Tech’s strong suit. Where Texas Tech excels is passing, but there, the defense had its best showing to date, giving up only 158 yards. This same Texas Tech team passed for 359 against SMU and 310 against New Mexico. After the game against Texas Tech, I am gaining comfort that Muschamp’s crew hasn’t lost much of its step. Getting to the quarterback more would be nice, but overall the defense looks pretty solid.
The offense has me concerned. Forget about the turnovers. The offense as a whole is struggling comparatively. It gained 227 yards through the air and 93 yards on the ground against Texas Tech. That is about as well as SMU did against them (218/109), and it is worse than New Mexico did. New Mexico had 337 yards through the air and 97 on the ground. Is New Mexico a high octane offense, explaining its performance against TTU? Perhaps . . . against middling BCS schools. Against the nation’s elite, like lets say Oregon, however, they gained only 82 yards passing and 25 yards rushing.
Bill Parcells says "you are what your record says you are." I believe he is correct, and I believe the Horns are a 3-0 team and, until proven otherwise, they are deserving of their current national ranking. I have seen enough football to know that some teams, as maddening as it is, just play to the level of their competition. Having played, I know it is hard to get up for lesser opponents. There is no need to panic about this year’s team. There is another team north of here that is playing the same kind of ball . . . having allowed Utah State and Airforce to play them close. But, there is one even further north that seems to be playing with a chip on their shoulder.
If the personality of this year’s team is to play to the level of their competition, they will increase the likelihood of a loss. This year, more than ever, with Ohio State, Oregon, TCU and Boise State looking like no loss teams (and with Florida playing back to form and Alabama looking like the same team as last year), this is not a year Texas can afford to sustain a loss and stay in the hunt. Odds are, the two teams playing for the National Championships this year will be undefeated again.
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As good as Mack has been to us, he’s never given us an easy team to watch.
by Capt. Obvious on Sep 23, 2010 10:05 PM CDT reply actions
Texas will not play for the nat’l championship this year (let me go out on a limb). The realistic goal, for me, is to win a nice bowl and just sustain momentum for what ought to be a good year in 2011.
by JUICE on Sep 23, 2010 10:13 PM CDT reply actions
Have already reconciled myself to a Nebraska loss.
And thanks for pointing out that tipped balls are not just, despite what people kept claiming, flukes and nothing to worry about. I am plenty worried.
In addition to what you said, I would add that Gilbert is increasing the odds of a tip via his style. First he advertises with his eyes where he’s going to throw, then he advertises with his sluggish windup when he’s going to throw.
Given a party invitation like that, a good defense is gonna RSVP for a pick six sooner or later.
“Thank you so much for the actionable intelligence you repeatedly donated to our team, Mr. Gilbert. We found your society delightful, hope you came to no harm when we shook off the ludicrous tackle you attempted as we raced to the end zone, and look forward to many happy returns in the years to come.”
by Louis L'am Jones on Sep 23, 2010 10:24 PM CDT reply actions
As good as Mack has been to us, he’s never given us an easy team to watch.
Huh?
by maninblack on Sep 23, 2010 11:18 PM CDT reply actions
Watching the Texas offense on the field is just painful. Utterly and completely painful. Now I know how Nebraska felt last year — lights out D, but a bumbling O.
by yojimbox on Sep 23, 2010 11:53 PM CDT reply actions
“First he advertises with his eyes where he’s going to throw, then he advertises with his sluggish windup when he’s going to throw. "
This. Along with GD’s stupid “two-man” passing game that cuts the field in half for the defense, and his utter disdain for any over-the-middle pass routes, it’s a wonder we don’t suffer more interceptions.
by MagicSoccerSpray on Sep 24, 2010 1:03 AM CDT reply actions
Sloppy play is not the thing I’m most worried about. The thing I’m most worried about – which actually creates sloppy play – is that there is no leadership on offense. Who are the real leaders on offense? [….crickets….]
by Speed Kills on Sep 24, 2010 6:58 AM CDT reply actions
It would not surprise me if the ‘Horns went 13-0. It also would not surprise me if the ’Horns went 9-3. I’ve watched ou and Nebraska play, and, while they don’t strike fear in me, both teams are certainly capable of rising up and beating us, particularly if we’re having a bad day. I can also see us dropping one of KSU/OSU/aggie just from not paying attention.
My expectations this year are low; the defense gives me great hope, but the offense just makes me sigh. We probably have good enough players on offense to be a top-five team, but it doesn’t seem like anybody on the coaching staff knows it, or knows what to do with it.
by adt2 on Sep 24, 2010 7:09 AM CDT reply actions
We need help as a fan base. I have never seen a road win at Lubbock spur more angst and criticism. We beat Tech in Lubbock dammit. Statistics are for losers – just win.
by realmccoy on Sep 24, 2010 7:16 AM CDT reply actions
Having lived in Ohio for a long time now, and seen plenty of Tressel-coached teams, Texas in 2010 (and even to an extent in 2009) is a pretty familiar animal to me. We are playing Tressel-ball circa 2002-2003. If you’ll recall, the 2002 version of Tressel-ball rode some improbable finishes, great defense, and one controversial penalty to a title.
I think we’re gonna be more like the 2003 version, though. Ohio State 2003 had a fantastic defense but the offense struggled against every single team not named Indiana. That group lost on the road to their determined archrival (Michigan) and also got upset, on the road, against a jacked-up rival that had been building to that game for months (Wisconsin). Nebraska is likely our Wisconsin this year, and although there’s no clear parallel to Michigan, OU is obviously a concern. Actually I am paranoid about KSU….
We are not a national title contender, and I’m not sure we’re a Big XII title contender. 10-2 and a berth in the Cotton Bowl feels about right for this team—the defense is great but the offense is frankly bumbling, and I doubt that changes. There are no Vince Youngs or Cedric Bensons coming off the bench. Any coaching changes probably won’t happen till after the season because that is Mack’s way. I suggest heavy drinking and resignation; it will make this season more bearable.
by spit and tears on Sep 24, 2010 7:27 AM CDT reply actions
“We are not a national title contender, and I’m not sure we’re a Big XII title contender.”
This is silly. We look better than OU to this point, and if we beat OU after already winning in Lubbock, our chances of winning the south go to about 90%.
by nordberg on Sep 24, 2010 8:42 AM CDT reply actions
There are absolutely no stars in this offense. No all Big 12 type of performers. Call it lack of experienced talent, recruiting, coaching, scheming, whatever….they are not there. The other contenders have stars.
The defense has stars at different levels of experience, great coaching, scheming and lots of talent.
We clearly have not hit recruiting wise on O like we think we have over the last 5 years because in years when we do hit, we garner enough talented players to override Greg Davis’ inability to coordinate an offense.
by derryl on Sep 24, 2010 8:43 AM CDT reply actions
“We probably have good enough players on offense to be a top-five team”
No, you don’t. The UT RB corps is an embarrassment of wretches. There’s not a guy on the UT offensive roster you have to gameplan your defensive front 7 around, and the only guy even heading in that direction is true frosh Mike Davis. The OL is recovering from the staff’s failure to capitalize on the national title in 2005 and go get the elite talent they were capable of getting. You know, the guys they’re getting right now. And Garrett Gilbert looks exactly as I expected: occasional flashes of brilliance interspersed between extended stretches of average play.
Mack Brown has finally built a foundation for an elite future offense. Of course, as things look presently, he’ll be doing so after Will Muschamp is named as the head coach at the University of Georgia.
by NateHeupel on Sep 24, 2010 8:47 AM CDT reply actions
Our defense will keep us in every game we play. Unfortunately, our offense will ensure they have to do so.
by uthookem on Sep 24, 2010 8:51 AM CDT reply actions
embarrassment of wretches
Thank you, Nate. Thank. You.
by Magnificent Bastard on Sep 24, 2010 8:53 AM CDT reply actions
I celebrated the win in Lubbock and believe that road wins pay team dividends in later contests, period. But I also feel unusual angst and think it’s part due to higher preseason expectations for performance than what we’ve observed so far and part due to struggling with real anticipation of potential losses in the next several weeks. I’m fending off the creeping dread that this season could be the low water mark of the last decade. Pairing a current undefeated record with the scent of a potential trough of the decade, you might feel a little twitchy right about now.
But all statistics aside, think how it will feel if this team wins the next 3 games to be 6-0.
by triplehorn on Sep 24, 2010 9:03 AM CDT reply actions
“If the personality of this year’s team is to play to the level of their competition”
This would seem to be a recurring trend for us.
by Hand Of Dog on Sep 24, 2010 9:13 AM CDT reply actions
This CRAP that you apologists keep spouting is pure BS. Things like “wins are what counts” etc miss the damn point. Making excuses doesn’t get your football team to 12-0. Making adjustments, utilizing better schemes with a cohesive thought process, and coaching your players to fix obvious recurring mistakes DO get you closer to 12-0. We’re not spoiled complainers…we are the optimists and realists who know how good we SHOULD be and how far short this team is from that.
If things don’t change with regard to our offensive coaching/gameplan, I’m going to love hearing what you apologists say after a 9-3 season.
by FGD on Sep 24, 2010 9:19 AM CDT reply actions
I fail to see the offensive difference makers that point people to the contention that this team somehow “should” be 12-0 or rolling through our schedule like a rolling ball of butcher knives.
We aren’t talented in the backfield, our best receiver can’t catch (or maybe our best receiver is a freshman- I don’t know) our starting QB has played in exactly 2 games with any level of pressure and our OL is more known for being good guys then ass kickers.
We can complain all we want about how we got to this state of affairs, but this Offense doesn’t seem to be particularly underperforming to me, rather we seem, not very good.
Maybe we will get good by the end of the year. Maybe we don’t lose any b/c our defense is salty and our coaches know how to win. At any rate, we don’t have a jugernaught on the schedule and I think we will probably be favored to win them all (maybe not nebraska, but if we roll in there 5-0 I think Vegas favors us) so it could happen, but Nate isn’t too wrong about our O.
by Wulaw Horn on Sep 24, 2010 10:09 AM CDT reply actions
You guys are FOS if you think Texas is not worthy of contending for the Big XII. First of all, the defense is really, really, effing sick. Good enough to carry a slightly better than mediocre offense to a Big XII championship and a MNC date.
Now, I will agree with you that the offense is not better than mediocre. But how can you tell me we do not have talent on offense. Goodwin, Monroe, Williams, are flat out freaks. Gilbert is an effing assassin on the deep ball. Davis a very promising frosh. All these guys are underclassmen – are you telling me we do not have the potential with these afoletes to be slightly better than mediocre? Obviously, GD and Mac will have to pick up their game – but getting a win in Lubbock is not an “apologist booby prize” – it was a key road test passed in red neck heaven.
by realmccoy on Sep 24, 2010 11:32 AM CDT reply actions
Man, you guys are pessimistic. The offense has some problems, but let’s look at the good things:
1) The OL has been very good to excellent in pass protection and mental errors like false start penalties usually lessen over the course of a season.
2) Gilbert’s shown mental toughness in two unusual situations that he could’ve lost it (vs. Bama, and THREE tipped ball interceptions).
3) We may be ineffective at running the ball, but at least we’ve used it in game situations. Hopefully that will pay dividends in the coming weeks.
4) Even though we’ve gotten uneven performances from some receivers (Mal-Will, Goodwin), others are stepping up (Kirk & Davis).
5) Our RB’s are nothing special, but we do have a nice diversity of styles among them. Also, they’re all pretty experienced (blitz pickup, general awareness).
6) The TE’s are… well… um… really trying hard. OK, so our TE’s suck.
by czarcw on Sep 24, 2010 12:26 PM CDT reply actions
,,,what you apologists say after a 9-3 season…
It’s already been said: “We were rebuilding…”
How many years have we heard about “fixing the running game” and how many years has Lucy pulled the football away just as we were about to kick it into the endzone?
Maybe it’s true: Greg Davis is essentially nothing more than a sock puppet for Mack… he fell on his HC ass at Tulane after Mack left, was about .500 as OC at Arkansas and Georgia before he rejoined Mack. He can’t be fired because he’d be too difficult to replace with another marionette.
by Tex Long on Sep 24, 2010 12:47 PM CDT reply actions
realmccoy – I admit I’m focusing on one sentence rather than your thesis, but I can’t agree with this:
“Goodwin, Monroe, Williams, are flat out freaks.”
Goodwin and Monroe are PLENTY fast – I will give you that. Freakishly fast (especially, or maybe exclusively, when they’re running on a track). They’re also 5’9"- 177lbs and 5’9"-171lbs, respectively. Which – when paired with GDGD’s shortcomings in play-calling, namely short & expect-the-hit-after-the-catch passing and millisecond-long holes in the running game – means that these guys are taking a licking and WILL NOT keep ticking. There’s probably not a single player that will attempt to tackle them this season who weighs within 10lbs of them. So I think they’ve got plenty of talent and ability to be brilliant, but they’re not players that we can turn to 40, 20, or maybe not even 10 times a game.
Williams… bless his heart, he plays hard. He blocks well, he’s got the physicals, but he just.can’t.catch. If being big and blocking and occasionally catching a pass were all you needed… well then I guess we’d have a decent flex-TE. But as has been previously mentioned here on BC, he’s not being utilized correctly (his INT against TT came on a LOS-throw, not a deep ball where at least we’re used to him dropping it), and despite his best efforts, he has no consistency whatsoever. Maybe relegating him to blocking on special teams only would make him work harder, but I’m pretty sure that’s been done before to no avail.
So yes – there’s raw talent. But it’s not talent that fits easily into any of those three – or even a mix of those three – being our stars on offense.
by TXinDC on Sep 24, 2010 2:16 PM CDT reply actions
Thanx TXinDC -
I agree with all your points on the Goodwin, Monroe, and Williams. I would not classify any of them as a “go to” kind of guy. But they are certainly dangerous at any point in time, and would keep me up late at night if I was a DC. I am really hoping that GD finds some inspiration, either from self analysis or a well placed foot up his rotund arse. I personally think this offense is more underachieving than under talented. And I really wonder how a defense could cope with Williams (substitute Davis if a preference), Goodwin, and Monroe on the field at the same time in well developed and designed packages. Urban Meyer rode guys like Monroe and Goodwin to the MNC. GD cannot seem to find a way to use them.
by realmccoy on Sep 24, 2010 3:42 PM CDT reply actions
worry worry worry worry fret fret tug hair drink coffee worry worry worry did I pay my electric bill concern worry rub vag worry worry tipped passes chris simms again worry worry worry muschamp’s leaving worry worry supervolcano in wyoming oh my god o shit o shit o shit it sucks it will never get better worry worry deficit worry fret fret giggle from stress heave heave pant o shit asteroid on collision course with earth no bruce willis to help we
are
so
fucked
by The Overall Tone on Sep 24, 2010 4:14 PM CDT reply actions
“… leaving worry worry …”
Looks you need you one of them damitol yellows, for that hazy, golden “Nothing At All” feeling. Maybe a prolaxitate, and wash it down with a nice cold Shiner Suckerpunch.
Some of us ain’t worried, old dog, just puzzled.
by Tex Long on Sep 24, 2010 4:34 PM CDT reply actions

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