Keys To The Oklahoma Game
I can foresee three realistic scenarios for tomorrow's game.
A close Texas win, in a defensive struggle. Say, 17-13. Or 3-2.
A close Oklahoma win, in a defensive struggle. 17-13.
A Oklahoma blowout win, resembling the UCLA game in which 4 turnovers and a couple of defensive lapses results in a 31-10 rout.
Below is how we're most likely to create Scenario #1.
Offense
Run great late?
OU can't stop the run (#93 in the country). We can't run. But we might be able to get something going late if we keep it close. We ran alright in '05 (Masai Warrior), '06 (zone read), '07 (Charles), '08 (wore them down late), '09 (misdirection with Colt as running threat). The only one of those models that is potentially duplicable is 2008. If we can convert a few third downs and stay on the field, we have a shot at running the ball late as backside pursuit wearies, and our linemen can get to the 2nd level on their blocks. We might even have a WR attempt a block, just to see what it feels like.
Pass protection
Our OL, on balance, has been adequate in protection this year. We have to prevent clean shots on Gilbert that will result in turnovers and short fields. OU is going to keep two deep, but they will be bringing their backers. It's Venables, after all. If we can pick that up, we have a chance to make a big play on our 2 yard stop hot routes. 2nd and 8, baby. Pressure is on you now, Sooners!
Limit turnovers
I'm not bold enough to say no turnovers. I'm just hoping we can limit it to two or less. Particularly any on our side of the field or those resulting scores. Yes, blinding glimpse of the obvious, I know.
Route diversity on midgets
I laugh when I read quotes from Davis offering that we need to simplify given that our offense comes with a "Good For Ages 3 And Up" instruction like Candy Land. I'm not asking for Risk or Stratego. Battleship or Sorry would be fine. Our WRs have to do more than run stops and lazy settle routes (when teams play us two deep, our WRs assume zone and run these horrible settle routes, not understanding it's man under). If I see a properly run post corner on their two deep, I may faint in surprise. We need to take our shots on their midget/inexperienced corners. They're either starting a Lilliputian or a freshman out there Saturday - let's game plan like we're aware of it.
Barrett Matthews - don't laugh - made his hay in high school running deep seam routes. He was a 10.7 100 meters guy at 225. Why not give it a shot?
I'm just asking that we attempt to run some of the routes in the route tree. No more, no less.
Avoid Munchhausen's Offense
The game plan we rolled out in the years in which we were rolled by 50+ or shutout on O completely was centered around "not losing the game" and "protecting the QB." The rhetoric we're hearing now. This is poisoning the offense willfully and then pretending to coddle and protect it. What it means practically is a whole lot of 3rd and 11 with our QB throwing into dime coverage and specialized blitz packages resulting in turnovers, miscues, and a total erosion of confidence that bleeds throughout the whole team. Just play football. Just call a proper offense.
Playmakers?
Our staff has identified Mike Davis, Marquise Goodwin, DJ Monroe as our playmakers. Davis was a guy we passed on initially, Goodwin is here because of the long jump, and DJ was our 5th string RB two weeks ago. Memo to offensive staff: work on playmaking identification skills. If those three don't combine for a minimum of 20+ touches in varied ways, the football is not good and the ice is not right.
Defense
Reading Not An Okie Strong Suit
Landry Jones is a one read QB and it's a Ryan Broyles coloring book. With a Demarco security blanket out of the backfield. Take away Ryan Broyles - at least as an initial read - and cover Demarco Murray out of the backfield with a secondary player on key downs rather than a LB. I'm more inclined to double Broyles with Curtis Brown and a safety and let a physical Aaron Williams slaughter their #2 freshman WR Kenny Stills one-on-one. Take away Ryan (as much as one can) and Demarco out of the backfield and let's see if OU can beat us playing left-handed.
Get Landry On The Run
When Landry Jones has a clean pocket, he throws beautiful balls. When he throws on the run, it's like watching Ruth Bader Ginsburg throw out an opening day pitch for the Nationals. We have a major quickness advantage over the Sooners upfront and our secondary, unlike FSU, isn't cognitively disabled. Do not make a Chykie crack.
Score
Pick 6. Sack and strip. Safety. Whatever. It's completely unfair to ask your defense to singlehandedly win a game. But right now I'm asking our defense to singlehandedly win the game.
Special Teams
Competence
Not allowing a fresh set of downs after a defensive stop with a penalty would be a lovely start. If it's 4th and 5 or less, no punt block attempts. Would scoring on a kickoff or punt return be too much to ask? Our best punt returner lost his mind last week, so now Aaron Williams has a shot at being the hero. Teams are now kicking to DJ and Marquise because they've realized we're not blocking anyone, so their speed is a moot point. If special teams can't be a positive factor, at least be a net neutral. This should be a team strength and it has been a team burden. Snap out of it.
You
If you're going to Dallas, turn off your analytical mind and be a rabid fan, no matter how much our offense frustrates you. This is a game of wild emotional momentum swings and the kids on the field are susceptible to it. The Longhorn crowd affected the outcome of the 2008 and 2009 games and I know Longhorn crowds affected several of the games I attended when Texas was a major underdog and pulled out wins.
Let's do it.
Also, I'd like a score prediction.
Once you are finished with that, wander across the Red River and take a look at Nate's thoughts on Texas and its Offenses plural and our Fighting Muschamps.
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….and Mike Davis is out for the game.
Lovely.
by Scipio Tex on Oct 1, 2010 5:56 PM CDT reply actions
I assume we just use those Mike Davis plays, but substitute Barrett Matthews in his spot. That ought to do it.
by Toadvine on Oct 1, 2010 5:57 PM CDT reply actions
I was thinking more along the lines of Brock FitzHenryJames.
by Scipio Tex on Oct 1, 2010 5:59 PM CDT reply actions
We need to get the ball into playmakers’ hands; Greg Smith and Chris Whaley in space, preferably through horizontal passes, IMO,
by Toadvine on Oct 1, 2010 6:03 PM CDT reply actions
Texas 16-12.
The first thing I read about Muschamp (hell, maybe you wrote it) was that his philosophy is to take away what the opposition is comfortable with. I’m confident he will do this either as you describe or in some super-duper ballhawk shirt kind of a way. I think our defense scores the only touchdown of the game or sets up the offense within OU’s fifteen for that td. Everything else is fieldgoals.
OU will keep our receivers in front of them so the big plays, if any, will lead to kicks. We’ll give OU a few field goals with turnovers and their big drive of the game will come up short. We run out the clock with an eight minute final possession.
I wouldn’t bet an old Iowa State Chizik Era coin on my analysis.
by RomaVicta on Oct 1, 2010 6:13 PM CDT reply actions
OU will never see it coming if we put Shipley in the slot on Saturday.
by EastSideHortn on Oct 1, 2010 6:16 PM CDT reply actions
This must be the game we’ve been saving Whaley for. Colt wouldn’t have a prayer out there tomorrow and I feel sorry for Gilbert.
Barring a miracle where DJ runs for 200, we lose this one 24-2.
by justhookit on Oct 1, 2010 6:16 PM CDT reply actions
In my preview I layed out the same three scenarios..Guess we’re on the same page. I also wrote it before we knew about Mike Davis. Ugh.
by BloggingBevo on Oct 1, 2010 6:17 PM CDT reply actions
I can see us winning by 2 td’s also. A wounded dog can tear crap up when its backed into a corner. The question is, are we a wounded dog or are we dead?
by Orangechipper on Oct 1, 2010 6:27 PM CDT reply actions
Well, here it is. The game that almost entirely depends on Malcolm Williams deciding he wants to try hard at football. The Mike Davis news takes my prediction from 40/60 shot at winning to 20/80.
by Nero on Oct 1, 2010 6:30 PM CDT reply actions
….and Mike Davis is out for the game.
Well, fuck me. That does it: OU 13, Texas 9. Their defense scores the only touchdown.
by Blueshorn on Oct 1, 2010 6:31 PM CDT reply actions
Mal Williams needs to not try so hard.
And he needs his coach to send him on fly patterns where all he does and run and catch against 1:1 coverage when OU trots out a barking spiders OU across from him.
by Sailor Ripley on Oct 1, 2010 6:36 PM CDT reply actions
And why do we announce Mike Davis can’t play?
by Sailor Ripley on Oct 1, 2010 6:44 PM CDT reply actions
Muschamp’s philosophy of taking away what the opposing offense does best vs Mack and GD GD’s philosophy of taking what the defense will give you is a noteworthy contrast.
I have almost no idea what to expect. I think this will be more like the late ’70s-early ’80s series with a low score and with a big play or two that makes the difference. The floor of the Cotton Bowl is not for the faint of heart, so does Davis go completely fetal or does he go grab-bag wizardry? Either are possible.
by Black Scholes on Oct 1, 2010 6:51 PM CDT reply actions
But we did announce that Willis Reed would play. Total mindfuck.
by mr. sunshine on Oct 1, 2010 6:59 PM CDT reply actions
I am from the third scenario camp but I see it 31-7 OU. End of 1st Q it will be 3-0 and at half it will be 10-0. Then just like UCLA, the defense demoralizes over the offense’s incompetence. With 6 mins to play Stoops throws to go up 31-0 and we then score a late touchdown
I think the biggest problem is that the team has no confidence that the staff has a clue how to beat OU. So we are beat before the game even starts.
by Alan on Oct 1, 2010 7:04 PM CDT reply actions
Interesting post on Shaggy, purportedly from an “insider” on another board:
Expect to see DW and DT, early. We are looking to run a lot of 11 and 0 formations early and take some shots, and DT is expected to get a look at flex in some of those situations. Smith may not see the field the rest of the way except in goal line.
DJ should also see some time early. Hopefully they produce early, all three were said to have solid weeks of practice in what was the most intense week of practice since the Holiday Bowl.
Darius White and Darius Terrell.
by Blueshorn on Oct 1, 2010 7:25 PM CDT reply actions
Two Bader Ginsburg references in one day. We know where your head is.
Pervert.
by nordberg on Oct 1, 2010 7:32 PM CDT reply actions
If the first play of the game is the quick 3-yard out to get GG “into the flow of the game” it is over before it starts.
Yes both teams have serious flaws, but the one factor I can’t escape is that for this Saturday the Jordan Shipley of the game (Bryoles) will be wearing Crimson and Cream.
by srr50 on Oct 1, 2010 7:37 PM CDT reply actions
Darius Terrell? Seriously? We’re going to give a guy meaningful PT against OU after not playing him in our first four games.
by nordberg on Oct 1, 2010 7:38 PM CDT reply actions
realy hope you’re joking about throwing the ball to Matthews. his hands are worse than those of James Thomas. seriously. sorta wish we’d just line up Trey Hopkins at TE, next to Mitchell.
for some reason, I feel like the offense might look better tomorrow.
by sa on Oct 1, 2010 7:38 PM CDT reply actions
I wish Dexter Pittman played TE. He’d be awesome in the red zone.
by Toadvine on Oct 1, 2010 7:41 PM CDT reply actions
Three yard outs and a cloud of punt. We’ll come out throwing. Short. Token running to give Greg a chance to read his page and pick the next horizonal masterpiece… volleyball picks, and a lot of quit on the offensive side. But enough offense to hear the usual: execution, hope, players must player… anything but coaches on offense must coach. D plays great until just too put out to care. 23 to 6 OU. Mack and Greg have just sucked the fun out it.
by Spastic Synapse on Oct 1, 2010 7:44 PM CDT reply actions
31-0. Texas. We pitch the shut-out and run for 200 yards. It’s going to be awesome.
by Toadvine on Oct 1, 2010 7:46 PM CDT reply actions
Darius Terrell? Seriously? We’re going to give a guy meaningful PT against OU after not playing him in our first four games.
Who knows, but I’d say we could be that desperate.
by Blueshorn on Oct 1, 2010 7:46 PM CDT reply actions
Texas 16-14. Defense or special teams sets up short field for 3 field goals and offense hits one long pass play for TD (Malcolm Williams or Barrett Mathews down the seam). OU inept on offense w/exception of Murray scoring a TD on a perfectly setup screen pass. OU defense scores on a pick six jump of a short route.
by BebopHorn on Oct 1, 2010 7:49 PM CDT reply actions
Part of me thinks this could be like Holiday bowl ’07. Remember? After the ags beat us and everyone said we were DOOMED. Never seen our team come out as fired up as that game. The OU team is not that good this year. I expect us to come out and rip some heads off. We have to be willing to run at them AND take some chances.
by CA_longhorn on Oct 1, 2010 7:54 PM CDT reply actions
Let’s go small. Desean Hales. Goodwin. Fitzhenry. Play possum, then when they least expect it, put in Timmons, White and Williams. They won’t know what hit them. And yes, I’ve already had a rita tonight. Gotta get in the zone.
by Burnt Orange Wookiee on Oct 1, 2010 7:57 PM CDT reply actions
What other options do we have? Using our TEs is like playing 10 on 11. Shit, the coaches probably drew up their game plan last night or this morning.
by NY Horn on Oct 1, 2010 8:06 PM CDT reply actions
Oklahoma 23 – 9. I’m betting Davis calls it safe and this team still makes mistakes. Things I’ll be looking for that would give me hope.
1. Targetting Matthews early in the game. (ala Finley/Irby 2007, although that ended in a loss)
2. Designed bootlegs for Gilbert. I like what he does outside the pocket and gives a chance for Davis’s initial patterns to break down.
3. A Desean Hales sighting. All the talk last year was that he and Gilbert had developed a connection in practice. I want guys that give GG confidence.
4. GG cracking a smile. We shoulda had him try to throw for 5 TDs against Rice and then send 4 TriDelts to his dorm after the game.
5. Recognition of what Broyles and Murray mean to the OU offense and the hitting to back it up.
by ultralight on Oct 1, 2010 8:14 PM CDT reply actions
Mack is 5-6 against Stoops. He needs this one, badly.
by Blueshorn on Oct 1, 2010 8:17 PM CDT reply actions
No one writes football better. Munchhausen’s Offense is proof. I write for a living, and you make me want to quit out of shame. You’re John Holmes while the rest of us walk around with cocktail weenies.
Bad feeling. OU something – UT something less than OU. Numbers don’t really matter.
by CasualObserver on Oct 1, 2010 8:35 PM CDT reply actions
Word out of Norman is that they’ve been practicing their fullback Miller in the wildcat. They will try to run it up the gut late, like UCLA did.
by Speed Kills on Oct 1, 2010 8:44 PM CDT reply actions
Okay, I’ve been waiting until the night before the big game to let the cat out of the bag and here it is.
Wishbone!
We’ve got like 23 running backs so we’re going to line them up in the wishbone and throw them at the LOS like they’re cannon fodder.
Saw the team practicing this all week in their dorms, ultra secret like, on their play stations.
by texoz on Oct 1, 2010 9:01 PM CDT reply actions
The last time I had similar thoughts about our offense going into this game was in 2003. Fortunately their defense is much suckier than in 2003, and our defense is a lot better. Still, it isn’t a good feeling.
13-9 OU
by Fritz on Oct 1, 2010 9:11 PM CDT reply actions
27-13 Longhorns. Lots of vag-rubbing going on lately. Doesn’t ANYONE get it? This was all part of GD’s master plan to get OU overconfident. Ha ha ha ha!
by SleepyHorn on Oct 1, 2010 9:11 PM CDT reply actions
Not sure why, but I’m thinking we win this one handily. I just refuse to believe we are a bad football team. This game will prove one way or another if we are.
We lose by any amount to the garbage that the sooners will roll out on the field Saturday and we flat out suck and will be lucky to win 6 games this year.
There is no way in hell our defense doesn’t completely dominate this game. I’m looking for a 20-6 beatdown that is worse than the final score.
by Bartoncreek on Oct 1, 2010 9:50 PM CDT reply actions
I’m drinking one of these now http://www.independencebrewing.com/events/inthenews/Oklahoma_Suks_Beer.html
so soon it will be 34-3 Texas.
by Bartoncreek on Oct 1, 2010 10:24 PM CDT reply actions
4-3, Longhorns. GD rolls out a brilliantly orchestrated spread triple option, but the players execute so terribly we still can’t score. GD finally feels validated.
by milksteak on Oct 1, 2010 10:27 PM CDT reply actions
OU shits the bed in the first half, and Texas takes advantage by playing something that looks like an adequate brand of offense. Good guys go into the break up 3 TDs, the second half is an uneven mess, but the final is a satisfying 34-20 thumping of the Sooners. We all get drunk and laid, the end.
by Pass the Bourbon on Oct 1, 2010 10:52 PM CDT reply actions
We get 1 defensive score and 1 ST score and 3 FGs.
Our Offense/ST give up 3 scores – outright or give up the ball inside the 20 – 1 TD and 2 FG and our D holds them to a FG.
TEXAS 23
OU 16
Hook’em
by ibleedorange247 on Oct 1, 2010 10:52 PM CDT reply actions
Though I like Pass the Bourbon’s scenario the best, I think Scip’s second one is the most likely. OU in a low scoring battle, 20-13 or thereabouts.
This OU team is very beatable, unfortunately not by us with an offense this bad.
by hopefulhorn on Oct 1, 2010 11:14 PM CDT reply actions
“We all get drunk and laid, the end.”
From your lips to god’s ears. Amen.
by nordberg on Oct 1, 2010 11:24 PM CDT reply actions
I told my six month old that he was going to have to get another bath Saturday night because his feet were going to be dirty…from kicking sooner ass.
Texas 24
OU 20
by uthookem on Oct 1, 2010 11:39 PM CDT reply actions
I’m praying for a repeat of ’91, when our completely impotent offense managed a lone FG, while the ass-kicking defense provided the winning margin with a Bubba Jacques fumble return for a TD in a 10-7 win.
It’s 12:20 a.m. and OU STILL SUCKS!!!!
Beat the hell out of OU!!!
by burnt orange outrage on Oct 2, 2010 12:17 AM CDT reply actions
I really hope I’m wrong, but I just don’t see this offense putting up 20.
Texas 13
OU 24
by texasengr on Oct 2, 2010 2:37 AM CDT reply actions
Amen about the turnovers. OU has a decent-good offense and decent-good defense. We have an abysmal offense and dominant defense. If we can change the Offense from a -10 to a zero we should be the better team.
2 turnovers or less is exactly what I was thinking to make that happen. And just score if you get the ball on the other side of the fifty to begin a drive.
by Nickel Rover on Oct 2, 2010 2:38 AM CDT reply actions
On coaching around Darrell Royal and Barry Switzer: “I never had the privilege of coaching for coach Royal, but I have been lucky enough to have been around him so much. Coach Royal was hard and tough. Both of them believed in running the football. Both of them believed that you take deep shots for passes for touchdowns. You don’t waste time on quick outs.” — Mack Brown, 9/29/10
I’m taking this to the bank. Mack finally, really, actually, for sure, no foolin’ this time makes Greg Davis STFU and calls the game himself with the above quote as his mantra. Hard nosed running. Deep shots off of play action. Touchdowns.
And don’t wake me when I’m having such a nice dream.
by LurkerintheDark on Oct 2, 2010 3:02 AM CDT reply actions
Seriously, why the hell can’t I sleep right now. It’s probably because the venison meatballs I made earlier are giving me gas. Secondly, I decided just to turn on the ryder cup since I am awake anyway. Thirdly, I’m pumped as shit for this game… finally. I tried not to even think about it all week but it’s past midnight on gameday so I’m ready.
We get rolled. OU 27, Texas 9
by Nero on Oct 2, 2010 4:30 AM CDT reply actions
Greg Davis redefined explosive plays this year to mean a 100% increase in yards after catch on three yard down and out patterns.
When you suck, redefine the metrics by which you are measured…
by jeff on Oct 2, 2010 7:24 AM CDT reply actions
We might even have a WR attempt a block, just to see what it feels like.
I snorted at that.
@toadvine – the 31-0 made me snort more.
I predict that Cliff Lee rebounds, and Texas wins this 2-0.
by Vulcan on Oct 2, 2010 7:39 AM CDT reply actions
All week I have lowered my expectations for this game… but every year no matter what or who we are playing, I always start thinking “were gonna do this, we can win this thing damnit”… but like Corso says Not so fast, my friend!
0U 20 – Good guys 13
I see this one being very hard fought , and we even have a chance towards the end, where we are down a touchdown and we are driving, and we all start saying to ourselves this is it, here we go… and then we have 4 plays of GDGD face palms and its Turnover on downs at the OU 33… Uncle Rico takes a knee and puts us down for good.
by travis on Oct 2, 2010 7:53 AM CDT reply actions
Scip: great analysis as always. The problem with your “Limit Turnovers” scenario is that the part that hopes we don’t turn the ball over in our own territory assumes that at some point our offense will be playing in OU territory. Sadly, the only way that is likely to happen is as the result of great returns on special teams (a crap shoot at best), or turnovers forced by our own defense, which could happen. Let’s hope that when the offense does manage to possess the ball on OU’s side of the 50, they don’t fuck it up royally.
Hook ’em!!!
by EyesOfTX on Oct 2, 2010 8:55 AM CDT reply actions
I just got a text from a good friend who is a Husker fan who is out at Disney World today:
“I’ve seen a few Horns here at Disney world. They were in fantasyland . . . hahahahahahaha”
I hate OU.
by justhookit on Oct 2, 2010 11:53 AM CDT reply actions
Our offense should be getting better since they practice against our defense every day.
But then with that logic, our defense should be getting worse…
Horns win, 4-3.
by JoeT63 on Oct 2, 2010 1:51 PM CDT reply actions

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