Nebraska Preview – Nebraska O vs. Texas D

by Scipio Tex on Oct 12, 2010 3:50 PM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

The Huskers have been the most impressive team in our pillow fight of a league, featuring an offense invigorated by Taylor Martinez's feet and a defense fueled by an elite secondary and the Pelini's brothers distilled paranoia.

The Huskers are fired up for this game. It's their valedictory shot at the Longhorns. Although a win on Saturday for Nebraska and a 2-8 conference record against the Longhorns wouldn't be anything to brag about, the timing of that second win is crucial for cleansing the Husker program of all of its impurities and, in a strange way, a form of closure for a decade spent wandering in the wilderness. It's a steam room filled with anxiety, expectation, and elderly men beating themselves with willow branches.

But enough about Tom Osborne's secret basement dungeon that inspired the movie Hostel.

So this is it.

We probably won't see each other again until the 2025 Alamo Bowl as Kyle Shanahan's Longhorns take on Thunder Collins' Huskers (work-release programs can change lives).

Offense

This is a read-option offense that operates out of the spread - often in 3-4 WR packages - and they run zone read, the Veer option out of the Pistol, as well as more traditional power off-tackle running plays. They also love to use Taylor Martinez from an empty backfield on 3rd and intermediate to pick up an easy first down with a QB lead draw. Take every modern option offense in college football - from Oregon to Michigan to Georgia Tech to Nevada - and Nebraska's OC Shawn Watson incorporates some piece of their philosophy. Like Oregon, they have a seemingly infinite number of small adjustments that they make off of their base plays to punish anticipation from the defense and, in that sense, it's a much more sophisticated version of the stuff we were doing with VY, which was more or less his high school offense.

Watson also has a great feel for the play action game (you probably remember this when he was at Colorado) and Nebraska will punish you over the top when you're lulled into the running game.

I've written a lengthy piece on what Taylor Martinez does for Nebraska's offense.

Let me briefly summarize: he does everything. Any questions?

He is averaging 10.8 yards per carry - including sack yardage - and an amazing 147 yards per game rushing. He is also averaging over 10 yards per attempt on each throw. Basically, every time he touches the ball, Nebraska gets a first down. Those statistics will moderate as he plays more games, but that's a five game stretch that's pretty much unmatched in productivity per play. His first step acceleration is insane.

Nebraska has the top running stats-adjusted offense in college football and after seeing what UCLA did to us in Austin, that's not an exciting prospect. Nebraska has been far from inept in throwing the football (Martinez is 39 of 64 for 660, 3 tds, 3 ints), but the passing game is used mostly as a punishment for overplaying the run rather than a foundational piece of the offense. Martinez will hit an open man and he can make deep throws, but he is not a polished passer yet. All things being equal, we'd rather he throw it 25 times than run it 25 times. However, if the Nebraska running game is clicking or if we must dramatically overplay the running game to stop it, he's fully capable of hitting a 60 yard back-breaker.

Roy Helu Jr and Rex Burkhead are both solid to good running backs, but their 8.1 yards per carry and 6.9 yards per carry averages suggest more talent than they actually possess. It doesn't matter. When solid talent is consistently placed in favorable situations, solid talent looks great. The same goes for their OL. That's why scheme is so crucial. They're the massive beneficiaries of this new offense and they do a good job moving the pile in between the tackles - both have a knack for falling forward.

Burkhead can throw a little - don't be surprised to see him to do just that if the Huskers want to punish an overly aggressive secondary in run support.

Nebraska takes aggressively wide line splits in many instances and yardage between the tackles is easy to come by if a defense is not able to punish them for it by taking gaps and inflicting negative plays. They have some experienced guys here and I don't think their baseline talent is all that much better than last year (maybe at OT) - they're simply playing in much more favorable schemes and blocking at advantage. It's worth noting that the center Caputo is undersized at 275 and their OL doesn't excel at pass blocking in traditional passing situations. I expect Martinez to have all day to throw on a 2nd and 3 play action, but 3rd and 10? - not so much. I think their best player is OG Keith Williams, but I don't know if Nebraska fans share my view.

WR/TE

Niles Paul is the most talented of the bunch, but he's been a bit underutilized as the Nebraska passing game favors ball distribution to the open guy getting one-on-one coverage or throws to a #3 WR slipping behind coverage. All of these guys are gigantic and very useful blocking on the edge. If you want to know why Martinez keeps peeling off 40 yard runs, look at the blocking they get on the edge and on the backside safety from their WR corps. Unbelievable. Mike McNeill is used as a TE/WR hybrid and at 235, along with Paul's 220, and Kinnie's 220 - this is a huge WR corps that takes pride in mauling opposing secondaries that they outweigh by 30 pounds per man.

How Do We Defend Them?

1. Assignment football. We played it beautifully against UCLA in the first half and fell apart in the 2nd half. We've now had the opportunity to review that tape, correct mistakes, and Muschamp has had two weeks to game plan Nebraska. I expect to see a more consistent execution of the defense. Defending option football isn't as intuitive as it was to players of yesteryear, but familiarity will escalate execution considerably.

2. Punish Martinez. He hasn't been hit hard yet. And he's going to need to carry the ball 15-25 times for Nebraska to win. Martinez can and will put the ball on the grass and fumble recoveries are a coin flip as to who grabs them. Nebraska has been very lucky here and if that luck evens out this week, a young, exciting, excitable QB might just lose his composure in a pressure-filled situation as Cornhusker expectation begins to weigh on him like an anvil.

And if he fumbles inside the Nebraska 20, we'll get a field goal out of it!

3. Physical secondary play. One of the best things about option offense is the pressure it puts on secondary players to make tackles against bigger players, fight through blocks, and introduce indecision into their keys. For a group not always inclined to love this aspect of football. I'm confident in Aaron Williams, Kenny Vaccaro, and Christian Scott answering the call here, but Curtis Brown, Chykie Brown, and Blake Gideon must all step up their games and fill with abandon.

4. Get them behind the chains. I'm willing to trade Nebraska popping a run here and there in exchange for putting them into 2nd and 12 and 3rd and 13 consistently. The only way to do that is to exploit those wide line splits from time to time with gap-taking DL and letting E Acho or a walked-up Vaccaro run loose to disrupt the mesh on the zone read. Balls will end up on the ground and Nebraska will be forced to do things they're not comfortable with. See the Texas win in 1999 in Austin. Nebraska rolled up and down the field, but they were killed by fumbles and negative plays that put them in passing situations.

5. Win With Honest numbers. You always read on the internet "just put 8-9 men in the box" as the solution to running games, but Nebraska's option football isn't just about numbers. It's also about direction, spacing, and counters. Often, walking up your safeties predictably just gives them a chance to hit a 80 yard run or pass that would have gone for 8 if your safeties had it unfold in front of them with depth to pursue. We should, by all means, walk guys up and give different looks, but playing the assignment correctly always trumps bringing up an extra body when a team has a polished option offense.

6. Red Zone. 1st and 10 on the Texas 18 yard line has to be a field goal, not a touchdown. That's the bottom line. We've played really good defense for the most part, but mental errors in the red zone have killed us. It's unforgiving territory and we need to learn to increase our focus as the offense gets closer to the paint. Our LBs, DEs, safeties have been the worst offenders and it needs to improve.

Muschamp will have this group play with a great deal of effort and pride. The question is whether our special teams or offense do anything to support them.

That's my take. What's yours?

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Comments

Sounds like the rare run offense where our big nickel is better suited than base 4-3. Should be a great game to see just how mature Jackson Jeffcoat is.

I’m liking corner blitzes in this match up.

DB’s and DE’s have to be on the same page throughout this game for us to have a chance, with regards to containment. Assignment football indeed.

by magnusbleuveigner on Oct 12, 2010 4:08 PM CDT reply actions

Scip

Some questions:

With the size of their receivers, why do we have to play Curtis or Chykie except on obvious passing downs? Seems like when a team fields 3 tight ends, you want to counter with some size. Size, run support seem like a premium over speed. Curtis or Chykie aren’t going to be too fast when locked up by a 230-lb “receiver.”

What are the college rules on planting option QBs every play a la Tony Brackens vs Hawaii.

by Eskimohorn on Oct 12, 2010 4:36 PM CDT reply actions

So, what you’re saying is we’re screwed.

by spider on Oct 12, 2010 4:55 PM CDT reply actions

Balls will end up on the ground and Nebraska will be forced to do things they’re not comfortable with.

Haven’t we all?

by BrickHorn on Oct 12, 2010 4:58 PM CDT reply actions

Good analysis. Our defense was constructed to play from ahead. They were recruited for that purpose, and we recruited for our scheme to be a defense that is ahead. Lots of speed, not a lot of bulk. Pass defense, both because of the style of play in the league and the fact that teams would be coming from behind most of the time.

That is why they cracked against UCLA. They are not a defense that is an unmovable brick wall. Its a testament to those guys that they did what they did for a half. This game is 25% what we do on defense and 75% what we do on offense I fear. If our offense can churn clock and garner field position/points, our defense will do great. They can man up and play assignment football on a couple possessions in a row, but then need a reprieve.

Can we give them that reprieve? Can we win the punting game exchange? That will tell us how our defense does. For the defense’s sake, we can’t afford going into the game with a passive and submissive approach to offense. We need to get first downs when we have the ball. If only 1 or two each time, that is what our defense needs or they will break in the third quarter.

Gideon’s play this week concerns me greatly.

by fear_the_cow on Oct 12, 2010 4:59 PM CDT reply actions

What can we expect from this offense on 3rd and long? Martinez sure hasn’t had very many passes from obvious passing situations and I’m curious how (if?) they will attack us here.

They have been decent so far on third downs (24/53), but they haven’t seen many third and 8+ in meaningful situations. I checked the play chart for their last three games (@ UW, South Dakota State, @KSU) and there were very few third and longs and even fewer called pass plays (only one – an interception – vs KSU and SDS combined). Martinez did hit two or three long 3rd downs vs Washington, although I’m hoping Washington is a bad as their defensive stats suggest.

If the offense could somehow get a lead, or at least hang on early, I would feel very good about Martinez breaking gameplan and trying to make something happen vs this defense.

by Kram on Oct 12, 2010 5:20 PM CDT reply actions

Eskimo -

The two outside receivers run well enough that you need two corners on the field. I would be tempted to play a lot of three safety nickel though.

Brickhorn, oh, you cad, you!

fear-the-cow -

I compare our D to Indy’s best defensive units with Manning. You can run on them, but if you’re playing from behind, it’s over. Unfortunately, our offense doesn’t allow that to happen.

A lot of fans conceive of Gideon like he’s John Lynch or something, but he’s pretty much the opposite. He’s a passing game centerfielder, not a true reliable run support guy.

Kram -

Truthfully, I expect a QB draw from five wide if it’s on their side of the field. The advantage Pelini has is in this game is that he knows our offense won’t make him play from behind. They can be very patient with the running game and let us wear down.

by Scipio Tex on Oct 12, 2010 5:27 PM CDT reply actions

Some random thoughts on the Husker game:

1) This will be the first punishing college defense Martinez has seen. Two of his weaknesses may become apparent. First, he’s got a high-school habit of staying upright through the end of runs (rather than sliding); he’s due for a hip-pointer. Second, he’s not very cautious in the pocket. No sense of impending evil. Mr. Jeffcoat will appreciate this.

2) Niles Paul is good for one turnover a game. When arriving in Lincoln, he was told he would be okay if he just imitated T.O., meaning Tom Osborne. Apparently he misunderstood the reference. Ball to Texas.

3) Going the other way, DeJon Gomes is good for one stripped ball a game. Hiphopopotamus still blames Kerry Meier for fumbling against NU, but it was pure Gomes. Expect him to take the ball away. Ball to NU.

4) In the podcast, Scipio missed the most important Texan on the NU roster: Adi Kunalic, the placekicker. Although he miffed in a crucial situation against UT last year—trying too hard, he instead kicked it out of bounds—the field position he routinely provides is good for 7 points a game. Alex Henery is no slouch either. Field position, NU.

5) The lingering question, finally, is whether the Sasha Rule will be in place for any pick 6’s.

by parlin on Oct 12, 2010 5:37 PM CDT reply actions

KSU handled the wide OL gaps horribly. Sometimes you’d watch a replay from the vantage point of the QB and see only two Wildcats on the screen facing up against the entire Husker OL.

by SynTex on Oct 12, 2010 5:53 PM CDT reply actions

I think we steal a win, primarily because I expect our defense to force several Nebraska turnovers. Odds say we’re due for the ball to bounce our way.

by 2 of 11 on Oct 12, 2010 6:15 PM CDT reply actions

“Odds say we’re due for the ball to bounce our way.” – 2 of 11

In this series? Really?

by Doc on Oct 12, 2010 7:09 PM CDT reply actions

Bottom line is I see us stuffing their offense. However, they still break about 5 plays on us and score anywhere from 21-27 points on us. Will that be enough given our offense?? I think it will be. I see a 24-14 type game.

by Orangechipper on Oct 12, 2010 7:22 PM CDT reply actions

Agree with Scip and parlin that putting some big shots on Martinez is essential, particularly given parlin’s dead-on observation of his upright posture. Let’s see how explosive he is after getting his bell rung a couple of times.

by hopefulhorn on Oct 12, 2010 9:59 PM CDT reply actions

Zone defense is the surest way to deal with a quarterback like this.

As a primary defense I like Cover-4 with 3 linebackers on the field, I’m not at all afraid of Robinson or acho uno ocho covering their slot guys.
I would run Scott and Vaccaro as safeties together and then you have them as the force players.

With the zone read, have the ends stay at home and make the quarterback hand off the ball, everytime he chooses to read anyway have Acho, Jeffcoat, whoever is there, bury their helmet in his chest. We tried to use excessive violence on Stephen McGee and saw no result for 3 years but we should test Martinez to see if he has the same stupid resolve.

SDSU apparently double-spyed him, I would rather handle him with physicality and make Helu and Burkhead get all the way down the field.

by Nickel Rover on Oct 12, 2010 10:07 PM CDT reply actions

Tex-Mex vs Cali-Mex.
Vaccaro vs martinez.
No pressure vs all the pressure
1st decent D they have seen all year, should be interesting.
Muschamp had 2 weeks.
Our D is going to win this game for us.

by Boom on Oct 12, 2010 10:49 PM CDT reply actions

Great analysis as usual, If the defense doesn’t show multiple looks, disguise something for christ’s sake, then you can call in the dogs, piss on the fire, this hunt is over. And you can buy the plane ticket for WM, cause at the very least, he’s gone on down the road.

by regbaker1954 on Oct 12, 2010 11:41 PM CDT reply actions

1) Hit Martinez EVERY time they run the option.
2) Play the run first. If they throw for 5 TDs so be it, better than getting run all over.
3) Hit Martinez EVERY time.
4) I refuse to lose to some fag called “T-Magic”.

Make it happen.

by CA_longhorn on Oct 13, 2010 12:44 AM CDT reply actions

As long as Coach Will doesn’t get too frightened, as he did against Ucla and ou, we have a chance. But just as Ucla’s tricky dive plays up the middle and ou’s sneaky quick-snap scared Will into paralysis, he may get “confused” by NU’s cruel and rude option game.

by ransomstoddard on Oct 13, 2010 6:19 AM CDT reply actions

“When solid talent is consistently placed in favorable situations, solid talent looks great. The same goes for their OL. That’s why scheme is so crucial. "

I weep.

by LurkerintheDark on Oct 13, 2010 9:52 AM CDT reply actions

Wow, I had no idea how worried ya’ll were for this game. As a husker fan you guys sure make me feel confident. Freshman QB. Haven’t played anyone worth a damn yet. Oh yeah and does 1-8 mean anything to you? Wish I felt as good about our chances as you guys.

by Jkbaldwin on Oct 13, 2010 10:30 AM CDT reply actions

I think the announcers during the NU-KSU game mentioned that NU has a lot of fumbles. Problem is, they recover most of them.

Our best bet is if the D can get a MULTITUDE of TOs AND the O makes ‘em pay. I’m fairly confident on the former, but the latter…

by Joetx on Oct 13, 2010 10:43 AM CDT reply actions

Meanwhile, Nebraska has already adopted a more-evolved zone read.

by spider on Oct 13, 2010 10:58 AM CDT reply actions

Jkbaldwin, re: “Wish I felt as good about our chances as you guys.”

Have you watched our last two games? Do that and you might feel as good about your chances as we do…

by The Bobs on Oct 13, 2010 11:38 AM CDT reply actions

This is one of the rare occasions that I find myself pining for the Carl Reese era. For all his failures to adapt to the spread, Reese could really defend the option.

So, that brings up the following question: why were Reese’s defenses so successful defending the option? It seems that a lot of what he preached resonates with the consensus view on how to defend the new Nebraska option: rely on man coverage, play smart but aggressive run defense, and hit hard. Was there anything else, other than Sean Rogers and Casey Hampton pushing the opposing line backwards every play, that accounted for Reese’s success?

by BrickHorn on Oct 13, 2010 11:52 AM CDT reply actions

“As long as Coach Will doesn’t get too frightened, as he did against Ucla and ou, we have a chance. But just as Ucla’s tricky dive plays up the middle and ou’s sneaky quick-snap scared Will into paralysis, he may get "confused" by NU’s cruel and rude option game.”

I know, right? God Will really needs to learn how to tackle on the field better…

by Blake B on Oct 13, 2010 12:18 PM CDT reply actions

I’m feeling pretty good about this side of the matter. Option offenses can struggle when the Defense gets an extended period of time to indoctrinate itself into assignment football.

And Martinez is a freshman whose never really had his bell rung or played a real defense. The absurd 10 ypc stat tells me not only do they have a system, they’ve been playing defenses starting me and nordberg.

by Bateshorn on Oct 13, 2010 12:18 PM CDT reply actions

Brick -

Reese struggled with option too. When OU ran zone read against us, it was brutal.

We played it pretty well with Humphery, Rogers, Hampton because they were totally elite against the run.

by Scipio Tex on Oct 13, 2010 1:00 PM CDT reply actions

Scip -

I don’t recall OU running zone read against us, but maybe they did. The only option play I recall hurting us was Jason White’s touchdown in ‘01, after Marcus Tubbs knocked Hybl out of the game. That was also the only big play OU’s offense had during the entire game. I think that was a result of no preparation for a running OU QB. My memories of OU’s offensive domination of Reese’s teams are limited to spread passing and a heavy dose of the draw play.

I agree that personnel had a lot to do with it. But Reese pretty much shut down the NU and KSU option teams he faced during his tenure, even after Rogers, Hampton and Hump left.

by BrickHorn on Oct 13, 2010 1:51 PM CDT reply actions

As spider pointed out today’s option is A LOT different than the NU option of old. Rather than focusing on reading the edge (DE or OLB) the player being optioned could be a DT or an ILB. Some of the “who” is being optioned is based on the defensive formation, sometimes it’s based on who you are having trouble blocking.

Against Western Kentucky and Kansas St. you can see Martinez peering at the linebackers. Their pursuit is his read of whether to keep or handoff. If they take a step with the horizontally running RB then it’s a keep up the middle because that one step is all Martinez needs to run past them. If they stay home it’s a give. Anything in between and they are in no-mans land either way.

What did we hear after South Dakota St game? Watson talked about how Martinez forced the issue and didn’t read his cues. SDSU was spying Martinez with TWO LBs thus whenever he kept it he had to beat 2 players. He literally should have handed off nearly every play based on his reads which would have netted more positive gains.

by seattlehusker on Oct 13, 2010 2:10 PM CDT reply actions

seattlehusker -

Yeah, the permutations are a lot more varied nowadays. And running them out of the spread has created a lot more open grass.

Your old Husker teams never ran midline option? I thought they did. I seem to remember Frost doing it quite a bit. It has certainly been around since the 1970s. Jamelle Holloway used to kill us with it out of the OU bone.

One of the Better Off Red commenters mentioned on the podcast that Tom Osborne liked the zone read concept of option (backside DE unblocked) better than the traditional Veer (playside DE unblocked) and that he wished he had thought of that.

Interesting stuff.

by Scipio Tex on Oct 13, 2010 2:50 PM CDT reply actions

We ran very little mid-line option under Osborne, at least in the truest sense of the play concept. He did say upon his return that if he was still coaching he would have transitioned to the spread because it gives the offense more options, especially in the passing game. I’ve little doubt that TO and Shawn Watson spent hours in the film room together this offseason sharing knowledge. I’m sure Osborne hung out around the coaching offices when the Oregon and Nevada coaches were in town too. TO is hardwired to be a coach.

by seattlehusker on Oct 13, 2010 6:18 PM CDT reply actions

Responding to my statement"

"Odds say we’re due for the ball to bounce our way."

Doc said: In this series? Really?

I was referring to the bouncing balls of turnovers this season. Seems like our luck with turnovers has been bad, odds say that won’t go on forever and eventually evens out.

by 2 of 11 on Oct 13, 2010 9:16 PM CDT reply actions

While I hate Texas and hope we win by 60, its nice to come on here and read the messages of some good football minds. My thoughts are if we do not fumble, we win. A buddy of mine says twice is a fluke and 3 times is a trend. Ive seen too many balls on the rug this season to feel comfortable about our abilities to to play a turnover free game. A freshman QB who throws with a Scott Frost-like motion does not ease my mind either. The college game has always been mental and it will be interesting to see how #3 handles the pressure. Any way you slice it, we all know this will be decided by 5 points (in any direction) or less like almost every game in the series. You cannot deny Texas’ ability in the past to make a play when the game was on the line. I hope thats not the case Saturday. Eerly similiar to the way we used to handle the Buffaloes by 4, 5, 6 or 3 points only to have the take it out on us and then some in 2k1. Cant wait for Saturday.

by Hobbs on Oct 14, 2010 1:06 AM CDT reply actions

I’m a life-long Husker fan but I just wanted to say that you put together some of the best analysis I’ve ever read. Someone needs to hire you and fast.

by Radioactive Man on Oct 14, 2010 10:22 AM CDT reply actions