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What’s Eating Garrett Gilbert?

My goal as a blogger is to only make claims and arguments that can be supported by evidence. I have very little trust in subjective assessments, even when made by very informed observers.

Star-divide

I take to heart the statement displayed on an old boss’ placard- “Without data or supporting evidence, what you have is just another G***amned opinion.”

 Which leads me to the topic of Garret Gilbert.  I see a lot of criticisms of him- slow release, locks in on receivers, doesn’t take enough shots downfield, turnover machine.  I think he’s getting a bad rap, and that there are far more serious problems on offense.  I get that he's ranked as one of the poorest Big 12 passers, and he's doing awful per the most important metric of a Texas QB- wins.  Let’s look at some other numbers for perspective.

 Gilbert is a first year starter, second year player.  Knowing that, are you surprised to hear that we are running more of the offense through him than any QB Mack has had here except for junior and senior year Colt McCoy?  I looked at the season stats for Mack’s tenure, and subtracted QB carries from the rushing attempts.  I then divided that (rushing plays where the ball is carried by somebody other than the QB) number by the total number of offensive plays.  Here are the results:

  RB Carries Plays %
1998 400 757 52.84%
1999 408 975 41.85%
2000 352 803 43.84%
2001 420 886 47.40%
2002 438 915 47.87%
2003 413 916 45.09%
2004 437 890 49.10%
2005 438 941 46.55%
2006 384 854 44.96%
2007 389 975 39.90%
2008 372 955 38.95%
2009 373 1053 35.42%
2010 193 493 39.15%

 

Wow.  Remember Major’s second year, when he threw the ball so much, winning Big 12 POTY?  We didn’t ask him to shoulder as much of the load as Gilbert does.  Remember when we had the best running QB ever?  We still handed the ball off to RBs more than with Gilbert at QB.  Basically, the only QB we asked to carry more of the offense than Gilbert was our two-time AA – Colt McCoy.  Given two more games like ISU, and Gilbert might pass McCoy in this metric.

 Well, we know Gilbert is costing games with turnovers, right?  Well…that is a perception, but I’m not sure it’s grounded in reality.  Here is Gilbert’s interception data for 2010, and the career marks for the other major QBs in Brown’s tenure:

QB Picks Attempts Ratio
Gilbert 8 253 31.63
McCoy 45 1615 35.89
Young 28 718 25.64
Simms 31 911 29.39
Applewhite 28 1065 38.04

 

Huh.  So Gilbert throws interceptions more often than McCoy and Applewhite, and less often than Simms and Young.  He is only a sophomore, though.

 We also see that he doesn’t throw downfield enough.  Let’s look at a funny metric Texas keeps- “Explosive Plays”.  An “explosive play” is defined as a pass play that goes farther than 16 yards or a run that goes farther than 12.  Through 7 games, Texas has 33 explosive passes and 17 explosive runs.  Through 7 games last year, our undefeated Longhorns had 31 explosive pass plays and 27 explosive runs.  I think now we are starting to see the real problem here.  Our running game sucks.  It’s awful, and the coaches know it.  If we had a better running game, I bet Gilbert would have less pass attempts for as many or more yards.  If we had a better running game, I suspect we would all feel better about Gilbert.

 Don’t get me wrong.  I root for the Longhorns, and not Garret Gilbert in particular.  He seems like a nice kid, but I posted before that we should compete the position, and would not shed a tear if he were beat out by a better player.  I just don’t want to see a bogus “pull the QB as a last gasp to see if the backup has something special we have never noticed before” move.  I would be OK with a “change the whole offense in mid-season and replace the QB with someone better able to run it” move if it were followed in the off-season by a “retire the OC who so badly misread the state of college football play” move.  Frankly, the staff has known Gilbert for years and bragged the whole time about his skills and how they would build an offense around them.  Any failings are on them more than the kid.

It was telling a couple of weeks ago, when Davis said Gilbert's problem was not making things happen when a play breaks down.  Good luck recruiting with that pitch, Greg.  "Well, Johnny, you do great executing your HS offense.  The real question if you want to be a QB for me is how well you will do when the defense seems to know what the play is before the snap, and they jump all over the receivers you plan to look for.  What do you do then?  Do you scramble for a first down?  Do you buy time and see how long it takes for somebody to break open?  Because that's what happens about a third of the time in my offense."

It makes you want to weep.

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On the first int he underthrew a ball that most high schoolers would have very little trouble completing. He rockets 5 yard passes and still throws them short into the ground. He overthrows wide open guys 10 yards downfield. These have nothing to do with how much he’s taking on. These are basic skills a qb needs to have.

by Savage Henry on Oct 25, 2010 11:32 AM CDT reply actions  

Savage, who do you blame more- Gilbert for lacking skills, or the coaches who committed the offense to him? Do you think the offense would work better with younger McCoy in there? Running and throwing as much as Gilbert?

by TaylorTRoom on Oct 25, 2010 11:45 AM CDT reply actions  

Good perspective. As expected, we’re hearing the calls for “pull Gilbert” and “put in McCoy” from the casual observers who don’t recognize the underlying constraints of the offensive…er…“system”. Yanking Gilbert won’t accomplish much, and probably will cause more harm than good.

I was most surprised by Simm’s INT/ATT ratio – 2nd best in your comparison. I guess he just gets the knock because his INTs seemed to occur at inopportune times or were returned for TDs more frequently than his peers.

by Levander Williams on Oct 25, 2010 11:47 AM CDT reply actions  

You’re reading it backwards. Simms is 2nd worst. It’s attempts divided by picks. Higher numbers are better. Thanks.

by TaylorTRoom on Oct 25, 2010 11:48 AM CDT reply actions  

Good stuff, Taylor.

Doesn’t FBO do a catchable ball %? That would be an extremely interesting stat to see from Gilbert. I expect that it wouldn’t be pretty. % of LOS tipped balls also would speak to his mechanics.

On the alternative end, % of catchable passes dropped might be another interesting metric. If our WRs held on to a few of those TDs, Gilbert’s numbers wouldn’t be skewed nearly as badly.

The % of offensive plays is staggering. Wasn’t the power running game implemented specifically so we wouldn’t have to have Gilbert this responsible? Would it really be such a detriment if we took Kirkendoll off the field and replaced him with Ryan Roberson as a fullback? You’re telling me a power I with Cody Johnson couldn’t gain 10 yards over 3 downs repeatedly and consistently?

by jc25 on Oct 25, 2010 11:49 AM CDT reply actions  

This team is so putrid, I don’t honestly know what to think anymore. Your applying the maths is usefully in indicating that Gilbert is not the primary cause.

Fucksticks, I’m beginning to hate this particularly vintage of longhorn.

by Bateshorn on Oct 25, 2010 11:50 AM CDT reply actions  

I think his confidence is shot. Hard to imagine for a kid who won two state championships at the 4-A level, but then he’s playing for an imbecile.

by Blueshorn on Oct 25, 2010 11:59 AM CDT reply actions  

Ah, got it – read as Attempts per Pick.

I should brush up on my comprehension. But I’m not a coach, so F me.

by Levander Williams on Oct 25, 2010 12:00 PM CDT reply actions  

He does throw some clearly horrific balls, and at times when it seems he’s planted, squared, and set – far too behind a rather open receiver.

And then, he’ll do something rather spectacular – a little roll out, nice touch on a long ball right on the numbers.

I think he has the skills. I don’t think he has the confidence. Heck, no one on the O plays with any confidence. That’s not too surprising given the Random Play Generator we have in the pressbox, combined with poor on-the-field coaching and accountability. We run so many plays that demand down field blocking – even just a few seconds of contact – from our WR core, and they generally do not perform. And there’s been no change. Heck, I haven’t even heard it addressed.

No, Garrett is clearly regressing. Going into this year, I expected that we would see a mixed performance from a first-year starter who had no serious reps other than the National Championship Game. It hasn’t helped that likely no one has worked on his mechanics (have we ever really DEVELOPED a QB in this system?), and he’s been poorly coached. Oh yeah, and basically he’s had to run for his life most of the times after the snap, so that now he’s got the permanent thunder of a 260lb guy running a circle around one of our 300-pounders in his head. And when he actually does get set, our WR core and play set does little to create separation from the D, or they can’t catch the percentage of passes that he throws that are on the money.

For me, so much of the offense was summed up early in the game, 3rd and 8 from like our 20, looking at the goal. Gilbert rolls left, and there are two – TWO – WRs within 7 yards of each other, both of whom are nearly motionless 2-3 yards in front of the first down line (needless to say, they are well covered). Gilbert’s only choice is to try for his receiver streaking to the corner, but it is neither well-thrown or a well-run route. He’s forced into too many low-percentage hits and he doesn’t have the skills now to execute that offense.

by Txzen on Oct 25, 2010 12:08 PM CDT reply actions  

All picks are not created equal. Simms threw his picks at the worst times. Devastating pick sixes. CU and OU are the best examples. Many were Greg Davis’s fault for throwing into the flat.

by LonghornXXX on Oct 25, 2010 12:15 PM CDT reply actions  

I don’t have the time to do this but if you want to use “facts” it has to be in the context of game situations. I am guessing some of our higher running play percentages in previous years have to do with killing the clock with a big lead in the fourth quarter, not wanting to run up the score. On the other hand, big deficits to the powerhouse defenses known as UCLA and Iowa State led to having to keep throwing the ball deep into the fourth quarter. In other years, we may not have thrown at all in the fourth quarter against either of thos teams.

If you want to break this further down by opponent, or by quarter or by score differential, fine. Until then I agree with the consensus regarind Garrett Gilbert.

by Alan on Oct 25, 2010 12:16 PM CDT reply actions  

Wha … I thought our QB was Gilbert Gottfried.

by spider on Oct 25, 2010 12:18 PM CDT reply actions  

What we have done to Gilbert reminds me of what someone once said about LSU bball coach Dale Brown:

“he could take a trained show dog and have him pissing on the rug in a couple of weeks.”

by bullzak on Oct 25, 2010 12:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Figures don’t lie, but liars can figure.

You are an engineer.

I don’t need a weatherman to tell me which way the wind is blowing and I do not need someone to tell me GG is not a very good QB. But then, the RBs, the OL and the WRs are not very good either.

Bobby Burton said yesterday on 247 that MB needs to re-evaluate his recruiting strategies. I would add he needs to re-evaluate his assistant coaches and then re-evaluate his recruiting strategies.

Or we are going to lose lots and lots of football games in the not so distant future. This is the least talented team since Mackovic’s final season.

by Whistling on Oct 25, 2010 12:36 PM CDT reply actions  

Alan,

I would give that argument some credit, but then look at our first formation…5 wide empty set. Also, tell me who was the leading rusher by attempts….GD went to his “great” gameplan for Nebraska only to find that Iowa State was prepared for GG running the ball. Greg Davis has never been able to scheme a running plan and never will. Vince created the running game in 05 and Ricky’s gameplan was already in place in 98.

TaylorTRoom,

Thanks for the write up. I am not close to blaming GG for the way things are. The wheels were wobbly last year (and the end of 08 for that matter – Ohio St. anyone) this year they have fallen off. Dumbass Davis needs his snacktime and can’t be bothered with things like gameplanning. VY’s offense won him a Broyles award by gawd, it should be good enough with the talent we have. Let’s see Ol’ Crazy Legs Gilbert run the zone read!

by jinx on Oct 25, 2010 12:51 PM CDT reply actions  

Whistling,

I’m an engineer too, so I’ll back up my own. VY was considered by many to be a bad QB in 03 and the beginning of 04. Turns out he just needed a system that he could excel in. I would argue as much for GG. They look like different athletes to my untrained eye, yet they are trying to run the same offense.

by jinx on Oct 25, 2010 12:58 PM CDT reply actions  

Thanks for another good article.

by Fire Bevo! on Oct 25, 2010 1:01 PM CDT reply actions  

TTR,

I still blame the coaches more I’m just saying for whatever reason (skills, confidence) he can’t make basic throws. We won a NC with a mobile qb and then recruited pro-style statues as fast as we could. I don’t give them much credit for recruiting Colt becuase he was an afterthought for this staff.

It’s obvious Mack gets off on stockpiling 4 and 5 star players and not guys he can fit into a system that will work. We should have the coaches and athletes to be doing what Oregon is doing or if we want to run a pro-style offense what Bama is doing.

by Savage Henry on Oct 25, 2010 1:02 PM CDT reply actions  

also, no I don’t want him benched but i do think it should be an open job in the spring and if GG is still the guy i’m cool with that.

i never wanted vy converted to wr or colt benched. every person in the stadium next to me called for chiles in ’07 and it was laughable since he never showed he could throw the ball.

by Savage Henry on Oct 25, 2010 1:04 PM CDT reply actions  

I agree w/ Whistling that we need to review our recruiting strategies. Firstly, our Line Coach needs to go, they are an embarrassment!! Running games start with the line, we had Joe Bugel who could do it with 230 lb guys! Next MB’s buddy GD has been a long time waiting for this departure… way overdue! Colt and VY saved him through their overachievements but GG is illustrating how bad it is!! One more thing that drives me absolutely nuts as a former flanker and FS, how in the hell do we run 3 yard patterns when we need 5 or 6 yd. patterns for 8 or 9 yds. not just once or twice. GG is way overthrowing and I believe he is a top 20 pitcher but not a top 10 QB!! No leadership on the field is very very very evident!!!

by Bob on Oct 25, 2010 1:13 PM CDT reply actions  

Agree that the truth with GG is somewhere in the middle. He isn’t ready for primetime and the terrible supporting cast only augments his weaknesses.

Everything goes back to the run game.

My litmus test for the run game is short yardage and goal line situations. I’ve been saying this for 5 years now (maybe even longer), but Texas cannot run the ball when they absolutely need a few yards.
How do I know this to be true?
Answer: The jumbo package, the big-back, defensive lineman running the ball, linebackers as lead blockers, QB sneeks
These are all gimmicks. It screams, "we need to throw the kitchen sink in order to work". Texas has 2 dozen TEs and fullbacks on scholarship who apparently can’t block any better than a defensive player who doesn’t even practice blocking.

by Mocking Bird on Oct 25, 2010 1:16 PM CDT reply actions  

Lots of great comments! I also agree with the short yardage wimpets! Our offensive line recruiting is an absolute joke those guys could push my mother out of the hole!! Is there also some reason that we can’t recruit some huge hole pluggers in the middle of our defensive line???? This is the most I have been embarrassed about a Texas team since the ND game in the Cotton Bowl. It is not how many loses but the teams we have lost to and the way it seems that we just wimped along on the field!! I repeat NO LEADERSHIP on either side of the line!!!!

by NavyFBHornDad on Oct 25, 2010 1:23 PM CDT reply actions  

All these fancy numbers are nice. But what it boils down to for me is this: Our receivers appear to be able to catch a ball that hits them in the hands about 5 times out of 10. GG appears able to hit the receivers in the hands about 3 times out of 10. The 3 times GG hits them in the hands rarely overlaps the 5 times they catch it.

Our receivers, with the exception of Mike Davis, who appears legit, are a vortex of suck. But as sucky as they are, if GG hit them in the hands more often (and don’t even get me started about our longstanding inability to actually hit a running receiver in stride), then we would have more completions, and GG wouldn’t be getting blamed. But missing wide-open receivers all day ain’t no fault of GDGD or anybody else on the offense. That falls squarely on GG.

by adt2 on Oct 25, 2010 1:24 PM CDT reply actions  

in seeing him play and in interviews, i wonder if he has some anxiety going on.

does our department have a sports psychologist?

would help.

by armchair psychologist on Oct 25, 2010 1:26 PM CDT reply actions  

Very astute, adt. You’re the kind of sports fan that offers insights like, “Why do we play the players that don’t play well? We should play the guys who play well. Why do our coaches call the plays that don’t work on 3rd down? They should call the plays that do work.”, aren’t you?

by TaylorTRoom on Oct 25, 2010 1:29 PM CDT reply actions  

Anyone else see on rivals where Todd Dodge said he wanted his next job to be a college QB coach somewhere? Wonder where he might have been thinking…

by Savage Henry on Oct 25, 2010 1:38 PM CDT reply actions  

With our current offense, according to Mack, the QB has to make “unscripted” plays (another words, it only works if the QB can compensate for the shit salad the GD serves). So imo, the Manziel kid seems to be a better fit than anyone we have on campus. I’m sure there are others, but if this the only way the GD offense is going to be successful than they might as well recruit to the, breakdown run or pass offense.

Who the hell runs and offense that is predicated on being successful when plays break down and the QB improvises? Mind numbing….

by sunset87 on Oct 25, 2010 1:45 PM CDT reply actions  

my buddy rented one of those airplane banners to propose to his fiance. it wasn’t all that expensive. who wants to chip in to get a Fire GD banner to be flown over campus during the Baylor game? I’m in for $50.

by Savage Henry on Oct 25, 2010 2:02 PM CDT reply actions  

our longstanding inability to actually hit a running receiver in stride

Reminds me – a couple of years ago there was a documentary on Leach the AntiCoach, which had a good bit of footage of his practices, which featured all five QBs on his roster throwing to all god-nose-how-many receivers, all at the same time (5 QBs throwing to 5 receivers simultaneously). The QBs cycled their reads so they threw to first read, then second, etc. The receivers cycled their patterns. The short patterns emphasized that the receivers DID NOT STOP MOVING and the QBs were required to hit them in motion. The linemen and backs practiced separately, although pass-catching backs and ball-carrying receivers cycled between the two groups. No effing wonder his third and fourth string QB could come into games and the offense never missed a beat.

by Tex Long on Oct 25, 2010 2:13 PM CDT reply actions  

Recruiting is not the issue. Player development and game planning are (RPG). The mailed in game plan was to develop confidence in the passing game (which in a game with 20mph gusts was not wise). On the offensive side of the ball, we’ve been outcoached without question at least 17 of the past 22 games. Our 2009 offense executed in 4 games and needed superior depth, special teams and defense to get by.

People may boo, but with our receiver personnel/passing game the way it’s going, Ryan Roberson & Cody should come out in the I and just attempt to pound the ball. Run some jet sweeps, maybe some 2-back shotgun. It’s a cliche (“run the I”), but we have to decrease the touches for Gilbert (who had his first bad game IMO). The guy’s had passes dropped, standing around receivers and receivers (with world-class speed) not achieve seperation. Shipley is definitely missed more than McCoy in my opinion. We win every game (save Iowa St) with him breaking down defenses and returning punts without fumbling.

And, putting Cody at fullback and actually getting him the ball in the running game or passing game would create some issues for Baylor. It’s easy. It’ll pay dividends in the 4th quarter and, at worst, it still sets us up nicely for 3rd & Longs we’ll get anyway. Iowa St did not stuff our running game, it was abandoned. Any patience in the running game will be rewarded by wearing out an opponent without depth, more than teams sitting back in zones getting accustomed to Gilbert’s slow release.

Much like the Greg Davis playcalling, this is a hodge-podge post.

by Eskimohorn on Oct 25, 2010 2:17 PM CDT reply actions  

Recruiting has not been the issue, but it will soon become the issue. I still don’t understand why a Malcolm Brown would want to play in a Greg Davis-designed offense.

by Alan on Oct 25, 2010 2:22 PM CDT reply actions  

agree. if i were malcolm brown i would be headed to tuscaloosa.

by Savage Henry on Oct 25, 2010 2:26 PM CDT reply actions  

who wants to chip in to get a Fire GD banner to be flown over campus during the Baylor game? I’m in for $50.

Screw that – it’s clear that McBrown will never fire GD – the best we could hope for is to kick him over the Cleve Bryant’s soon-to-be-vacant office. Let’s find someone to make GD an offer he can’t refuse. I hear there’s some people in Juarez…

by Tex Long on Oct 25, 2010 2:30 PM CDT reply actions  

Great writeup TTR.

Can we do a writeup on the number of GG’s interceptions in 2010 that have hit the WR square in the hands? I know there were 2 against Tech, several against UCLA, and 1 against Iowa State. The stadium announcer said called one GG’s turnovers an interception, but I think it was recorded as a fumble in the box score. It’s clearly the QB’s fault when he gets hit by 3 defenders when he plants on his drop-back. Oh, and there wasn’t even a called blitz on that play…we just decided against blocking.

GG has made some poor throws and some poor decisions. When you have a quarterback who is in his 2nd year on campus and his first year as a starter, it is NOT a surprise that he make some poor throws and decisions. When you are breaking in a new QB, he needs some help. Having WR’s volleyball set well thrown passes into the waiting arms of defensive backs does not do great things for your QB’s confidence level. Having a revolving door at RB, while benching the one guy with decent speed does not help either. Constant dropped passes…I digress.

Bottom line, I can understand and forgive a few bad decisions by a young QB made under pressure. I am disgusted by the constant bad decisions made on Gilbert’s behalf by our brain dead OC. It’s not like there is a 240 pound linebacker crashing into Greg Davis every time he calls a play that is doomed before we break the huddle. That guy has no excuses.

by Bullet Tooth Tony on Oct 25, 2010 2:32 PM CDT reply actions  

Good post.
 
I had a real problem with the anointment of Gilbert as our starting QB as a high school senior. The players around him know he was handed the job unopposed, he and our coaches know that his family bluffed them into agreeing to offer only one QB in his class, and it’s pretty clear our coaches took him with no real understanding of what offense we want to run or even how GD’s offenses since 2004 have had success.
 
Namely, a QBs legs opening up the field.
 
Now Gilbert is backed up by two freshmen – a private school kid project and a guy who probably isn’t on this campus if his last name was Thompson.
 
We’ve made our bed at the QB position. I don’t see an easy way out.

by Scipio Tex on Oct 25, 2010 2:35 PM CDT reply actions  

It’s not like there is a 240 pound linebacker crashing into Greg Davis every time he calls a play that is doomed before we break the huddle.

You’re right. There isn’t, but there should be… let Greg and Major swap places, put Greg on the sideline, and every time a play gets blown up, Muschamp slaps Davis in the back of the head. Or – at the very least – he has an opportunity to go Buddy Ryan on Davis’s ass with the TV cameras showing it all. Someone could make a fortune autotuning it on the intertube.

by Tex Long on Oct 25, 2010 2:39 PM CDT reply actions  

Good post.

Most of the participants on this web site had insanely high pre-season expectations for Gilbert and are over reacting against Gilbert now that those expectations have not been met.

It was never reasonable to expect a rookie QB coupled with mediocre offensive teammates and a mediocre OC in the first year of a major offensive strategy overhaul to be all world right out of the gate. GD has to have QBs who deal well with chaos. Vince and Colt thrived on chaos, Gilbert not so much. Gilbert is more of a system QB, he would probably be doing much better if Leach or Kevin Wilson was his OC (for example).

Mack and GD did not realize their coaching limitations, which is unfortunate, especially considering that they are very senior coaches. Mack’s main experience coaching the running game was mostly based on the option game (i.e. where the QB has the option to keep the ball and run or to hand/pitch it to a TB). GD has never been that interested in the run game so it was up to Mack to take the leadership in that area.

2005 provided the blueprint, i.e. recruit running QBs. Because of hubris and/or ignorance, they ignored the blueprint when they recruited Gilbert. Obviously using a running QB requires that you have lots of depth at QB since there will be more injuries when you run your QB more. QB depth has been a problem at UT for several years. You would think Mack would be great at solving that problem but maybe he is still traumatized by the Simms/Major QB wars.

It would not surprise me if one of the conditions for Gilbert’s commitment was a pledge to install a pro style offense (to prepare Gilbert for the NFL). If the horns stick with a pro style O, it is doubtful that they have the coaching ability on hand to make it work (so the current offensive woes could be a multi-year problem). If the horns return to a running QB type O (like Oregon and Auburn), it will be very disruptive and will take some new recruits (especially at QB) to make it happen. A compromise would be to move the pocket much more and roll out Gilbert more to set up runs off the QB’s pre passing movement.

My guess is that Mack sticks with Gilbert (who is a talented QB) and the pro style O and that the horns offensive woes continue (at least against the best defenses) next season. The big question I always had about switching to a pro style O is whether Mack/GD/Major had the ability to coach it (especially the run game).

by Kafka on Oct 25, 2010 2:47 PM CDT reply actions  

Thanks for the good read TTR. Your thesis questioning putting such a big percentage of the offense through a first year starter at QB is dead on. So is the correlate of running a pass-first offense with a group of WR’s and TE’s giving us as little as this group is giving us.

GG has above average ability but is being sabotaged by a terrible OC, no credible running threat, a rebuilt OL and poor WR play. Under those circumstances, hanging this offensive disaster on GG is unfair. Who wouldn’t play tentatively under those conditions?

by hopefulhorn on Oct 25, 2010 3:00 PM CDT reply actions  

Glad you pointed this out, TTR. Gilbert is clearly a rare talent, one in danger of being ruined by an offensive staff that’s expecting too much too fast (or else, is being forced by the failure of the running game to over-rely on him).

And a few commenters here have it wrong. There are plenty of teams where Gilbert would be earning top performance honors. If Texas sticks with this absurd horizontal passing scheme with Gilbert, we are likely to see a situation in which he goes from a zilch college career to a stellar one in the NFL… that is, if he doesn’t change colleges this winter.

by OldTimeHorn on Oct 25, 2010 3:34 PM CDT reply actions  

I wrote early in the year that Gilbert is a system QB playing without a system.
 
That’s still my view.
 
However one wishes to apportion blame, the overall play from our QB position right now is awful. The degree to which that’s Gilbert’s “fault” becomes a fairly meaningless debate after a while.

by Scipio Tex on Oct 25, 2010 3:39 PM CDT reply actions  

It’s on the coaches and I’ve said as much. Gilbert is what he is right now. I said this in Scipio’s Post mortem:

We’ve got Garrett Gilbert, Case McCoy, Connor Wood, David Ash at QB…….

Now imagine for a second if we had Robert Griffin, Russell Shepard, James Franklin, and Jamal Turner instead running our 2005 offense.

I know we wouldn’t have a loss this season, probably would have won the National Championship last year and our prospects for the future would be much brighter. We moved away from what brought us the most success in the program’s history b/c of Mack and Greg’s arrogance. They honestly believe it was their coaching that won the National Championship for us.

by maninblack on Oct 25, 2010 3:56 PM CDT reply actions  

jinx,
You are the only one here that thinks GG is another VY.

Eskimohorn: “Recruiting is not the issue.”
Go back to the old 360bbs and see how often that was said about Mackovic’s players. Mack Brown will be LUCKY if he can do as well this year with this lousy bunch as he did with the trash that Mackovic left behind in 1997.

by Whistling on Oct 25, 2010 4:09 PM CDT reply actions  

“2005 provided the blueprint, i.e. recruit running QBs. Because of hubris and/or ignorance, they ignored the blueprint when they recruited Gilbert. "

I don’t think they ignored it as much as they were extremely poor in evaluating/recruiting athletic, dual-threat QB’s and gave up trying. When Harris and Chiles didn’t pan out, it was like they threw up their hands and decided it was impossible to find good ones.

by Horncasting on Oct 25, 2010 4:28 PM CDT reply actions  

don’t even get me started about our longstanding inability to actually hit a running receiver in stride

No kidding. No matter which season it is, the vast majority of the time when Texas passes under Mack Greg, the sequence is this: pass, catch, fall. It goes back to Mack Greg’s pussy philosophy of taking the “safe” route, which not only includes horizontal passing, but a seemingly deep-seated fear of passes over the middle.

by Joetx on Oct 25, 2010 4:37 PM CDT reply actions  

Scipio,

I’ve seen your “system QB without a system” description. Clearly Texas has no coherent offensive system and never has under GD.

Would you explain the other side of the comment a bit more fully?" What is it about Gilbert that makes him a system QB? Is it fair to label him like that half way through his sophomore year? Who are some counter-examples (non-system QB’s)? Not meaning to be argumentative, just interested in what you mean.

To me, the term connotes the succession of players manning the position for Mike Leach at Tech. They all ran up big numbers and then fizzled as pros once they left Lubbock, suggesting their success was more about their being competent operators of the system than uniquely skilled QB’s.

VY would probably be the anti-system QB with transcendent skills and off the charts will to win that would likely have succeeded in any set that allowed him to run as well as throw. So was Colt, in his way. More skilled as passer than runner, his resourcefulness and creativity were what set him apart. He would do what it took. Both were able to demand similar commitment from teammates. You got the feeling that VY and Colt simply would not allow Texas to lose, once they really grew into the position and took the reins.

So far, if I see a lack in GG, it is in this last area, as a gamer, He has played like a nice, talented kid trying to do everything right, never really cutting loose with the “gunslinger” quality he showed in HS. In this clusterfuck of an offense, I wonder if he would do better saying something like, “Screw this shit, let’s play ball” and then acting on that.

Your thoughts?

by hopefulhorn on Oct 25, 2010 4:40 PM CDT reply actions  

“I don’t think they ignored it as much as they were extremely poor in evaluating/recruiting athletic, dual-threat QB’s and gave up trying. When Harris and Chiles didn’t pan out, it was like they threw up their hands and decided it was impossible to find good ones.”

Interesting and original idea but I doubt that Mack has lost confidence in his ability to recruit/evaluate. If recruiting is not Mack’s strongest coaching ability, it is near the top. As far as evaluation goes, it is doubtful that evaluating a system QB is easier than evaluating a dual purpose QB. For sure it is easier to construct a run O with a dual purpose QB than without and it is easier to pass with a good run attack than without.

by Kafka on Oct 25, 2010 4:59 PM CDT reply actions  

"2005 provided the blueprint, i.e. recruit running QBs. Because of hubris and/or ignorance, they ignored the blueprint when they recruited Gilbert. "

I don’t think they ignored it as much as they were extremely poor in evaluating/recruiting athletic, dual-threat QB’s and gave up trying.

It seems like I read an article recently in which Davis admitted that the staff made a conscious decision to completely switch gears on offense, and to go after Gilbert and design the offense around him.

Unfortunately, I can’t remember where I read that. Maybe Vasherized said it at the tailgate. He kind of looks like Greg Davis, if Davis was a husky Inuit woman.

by BrickHorn on Oct 25, 2010 5:16 PM CDT reply actions  

It was in Davis’ post-OU presser, with a summary at: http://collegesportsblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/10/despite-frustrations-with-punt-and-kick.html

4. Offensive coordinator Greg Davis said he knew that when he recruited Garrett Gilbert that that meant his offense would drift away from the zone read – basically what has made Texas’ offense so popular in the past. With all the criticisms Brown, Davis and the offense have received these past few weeks, Davis was asked why he recruited Gilbert if he knew he’d have to change his offense completely.

“We knew we’d be changing our offense with Garrett,” Davis said. “It was the same when we recruited Vince Young, but the opposite. You tweak to what your quarterback can do. We thought [Young] was the best quarterback in the state and that was the same with Garrett and we knew he wouldn’t be a zone read guy.”

So, essentially, the staff decided to move away from an incredibly successful offensive scheme because the most highly-rated quarterback in the state lived within a 20 minute drive from campus. Oh, he’s a bad fit for what we do? Well, just change what we do! And make sure we change to a system that’s failed us miserably in the past!

So. Fucking. Stupid.

by BrickHorn on Oct 25, 2010 5:20 PM CDT reply actions  

Gilbert is pressing because he is basically having to do everything on offense, as TaylorT’s stats suggest.

If you look at Colt’s 1st year as starting QB (2006), his RBs were Jamaal Charles & Selvin Young. His receivers were Limas Sweed, Jordan Shipley, Quan Cosby, Jermichael Finley, & Billy Pittman. All of those guys (not sure about Pittman) played / are playing on Sundays.

Through the 1st 7 games in 2006, Colt averaged 175 yds passing per game, while the team averaged 187 yds rushing per game.

by number2 on Oct 25, 2010 5:21 PM CDT reply actions  

Yards per attempt and yards per pass are a great quick-and-dirty way to understand why our offense sucks shit through a straw this season. Notice how our truthiness notion of offensive success over the years maps nicely to these numbers. Based on preseason reports, I was very hopeful we’d at least be in the 1999-2002 vicinity in these areas, but it isn’t even close. We’re essentially last season minus Colt’s accuracy.

2010 6.1 10.2
2009 7.1 10.6
2008 9.0 11.7
2007 7.6 12.0
2006 8.0 12.2
2005 9.2 14.1
2004 7.2 12.5
2003 8.2 14.4
2002 8.0 13.5
2001 7.3 12.3
2000 8.1 14.7
1999 7.1 12.3
1998 9.2 15.6

by CS on Oct 25, 2010 5:24 PM CDT reply actions  

The trend between RB carry % and Yards per Completion seems clear (if not a little obvious) to me.

If we remove the Rice game from the data, I have to think we’re at 2009 RB carry numbers if not worse. Sure, game situations dictate whether or not you can run the ball, but it’s disgusting to me how quickly we abandoned the running game we wasted all spring on.

by texasengr on Oct 25, 2010 6:11 PM CDT reply actions  

Whatever.

Dude nearly threw 10 interceptions and not all of that can be blamed on Davis. Cherry pick whatever stats you want. Normally good/great players flash some good with the bad.

With Gilbert it is all bad.

by Newy25 on Oct 25, 2010 6:11 PM CDT reply actions  

hopeful horn -
 
System QB is not an insult, as I think you perceive it to be.
 
Garrett is a rhythm passer who needs to make quick decisions on pre and early post snap reads throwing to receivers on the move running routes that rely on a smart QB understanding their intent, throwing to empty spots on the field. He needs to be in a slick offense that runs on tempo, timing, and has built in constraint plays that he has the ability to audible into. Gilbert’s brain and ability to process play algorithms with receivers making adjustments based on coverages that both they and Gilbert see in concert is where he excels.
 
He’d do well in an offense where receivers are taught to run to open grass instead of run routes.
 
The kind of offense he ran at LT with total authority.
 
Drill Gilbert in a system with thousands of reps on the same throws over and over with routes building off of each other and you’ve got a potential system machine at QB. Would we hold up against elite college defenses? Probably not.
 
But we haven’t played a high quality defense this year yet.
  
And won’t.
 
He’s badly miscast for us and unless offseason conditioning programs unleash his inner dual threat, it’s going to be a tough career for him.

by Scipio Tex on Oct 25, 2010 6:30 PM CDT reply actions  

Say that it really was a binary choice between GG and Shepard – we couldn’t get both, should we have (knowing what we know now) recruited Shepard instead?

I think it honestly couldn’t be worse if we hitched our wagon to Shepard even with his obvious limitations in the passing game.

by NY Horn on Oct 25, 2010 7:03 PM CDT reply actions  

Shepard wasn’t the only other QB on the planet and 2009 wasn’t the only year in which QBs were recruited.
 
If you correctly diagnose that a dual threat QB is the way to go, you make a concerted effort to move in that direction with your schemes, recruiting, and you weigh the degree to which you need feet vs. arm in that equation.
 
We’ve had no coherent recruiting philosophy at QB and recently we’ve very clearly decided to stop dancing with what brung us. Guys like Garrett, Case, Connor and Ash are mobile – not dual threats.
 
Of course, we have no offensive recruiting philosophy on the OL, at TE, or RB either, so why should QB be any different?
 
I can tell you very easily what a Wisconsin football player looks like at every one of those positions.

Can you tell me what a Texas player looks like?

by Scipio Tex on Oct 25, 2010 7:10 PM CDT reply actions  

Scipio: I can answer that. A Texas player looks like a guy who is willing to commit on the spot and not have the audacity to explore his options.

by CS on Oct 25, 2010 7:13 PM CDT reply actions  

Thanks for the explanation, Scip. I didn’t take your use of the term as insulting to GG. Just wanted to be sure what you meant.

Given that explanation, he is indeed a very poor fit for making our offense work. We have no built in constraint plays and our routes don’t build off each other. VY and Colt excelled at creating on their own outside the bounds of the called play. Demanding the same of GG (as GD recently did in a public statement about what he was wanting to see) is a cruel joke as it takes him away from what he does best.

by hopefulhorn on Oct 25, 2010 7:14 PM CDT reply actions  

I think one aspect of a system QB is that he and his teammates are well coached in the system and execute it at a high level. LT I assume, like HP, SLC, Westlake, and Plano before the diaspora produces system QBs because the kids are steeped in the system from 7th grade or earlier, are high achievement kids from the same background (high achievement and discipline) and execute it beautifullt. System QBs do alright and even excel out of their native environment when the coaching and resultant execution levels remain high subject to adaptation to the factors Scipio notes at the more abstract level.

When coaching and resultant execution other than standout individuals (e g Quan and Shipley) suck ass so too does the system QB.

by 2xHorn on Oct 25, 2010 8:14 PM CDT reply actions  

Whistling,

Did you even read my post? I said that they are running the VY offense with Gilbert, not that he is capable of making it work. Gilbert’s skill set is no where close to VY’s yet he had the most carries of the football game. We asked Colt to carry the running game too.

The pattern is, we are getting further and further away from Vince’s skill set, yet we are still running that offense.

I’m not saying that GG is without fault, but this offensive game plan does him absolutely zero favors. I remember reading that he started running more in his senior year of high school to get ready for playing at Texas. Fucking ridiculous IMO.

by jinx on Oct 25, 2010 8:27 PM CDT reply actions  

TTR -

When you say I’m “the astute kind of sports fan,” do you mean as opposed to saying something like “I get that he’s ranked as one of the poorest Big 12 passers, and he’s doing awful per the most important metric of a Texas QB- wins” and then saying in the very next sentence “So let’s look at some other numbers that support my theory”?

Let’s see…he’s ranked poorly compared to his peers, and he’s doing awful in the only metric we care about, so we’ll just look at, uh, something else.

I like GG. He’s a nice kid (met him at fan appreciation day) and he [mostly] seems to have the right skills for the job. But I guarantee you I can find ten examples of him standing unmolested in a perfectly-formed pocket and missing a receiver by 5+ feet, and I’d give you pretty good odds that I could find those ten examples in the last three games alone.

I understand that the system isn’t helping him; I understand that the receivers suck; and I understand that the OC, irrespective of past evidence to the contrary, is the one everybody likes to blame. But at some point the kid needs to be able to nail a receiver with a tight spiral. Colt was scary good at it. How many times did you gasp when he launched a ball into double- or triple-coverage only to see Shipley or Cosby emerge from the resulting pile-up with the ball? Vince could do it sporadically, too.

But so far, GG seems to be just launching balls up for grabs and hoping for the best. I for one would rather see him just tuck it and run.

by adt2 on Oct 25, 2010 8:27 PM CDT reply actions  

adt2, you should go back and read Scipio’s last comment.

One of my sons played on baseball teams with T. C. Ostrander. Ostrander was rated like the nation’s #12 schoolboy QB in 2001. Stanford picked him up. He turned out to be the only D1 player on his HS team (a very sports retrograde school even by Northern California standards) after he took them thru an undefeated season and won the Central Coast Section (= winning state here).

T. C. could drop a pass over a receiver’s shoulder at 30… 40… 60… yards. The coach was smart enough to build a line of Tongans who would knock the snot out of pass rushers and put some speedy guys with hands out wide. With no other talent to spread around, they typically won games by like 48 to 42.

T. C. was not mobile; he wore a knee brace. His first three years at Stanford he played behind a very mobile QB who excelled at the intermediate passing game. His senior year ended when a seizure sidelined him for the USC game, and the freshman backup started in his place and won.

So, I know talent is not the whole story. But with GG, we are talking significantly more talent than Ostrander. We’re talking the same ability to complete deep downfield passing but with more mobility and more football savvy. Coming out of HS, it looked like he had Elway levels of talent (speaking of Stanford QBs). I watched Elway at Stanford. He missed plenty of passes by 5+ feet too.

It was painful watching GG in the IS game. A thoroughbred is being turned into a circus pony.

by OldTimeHorn on Oct 25, 2010 11:09 PM CDT reply actions  

he can’t throw on the run, has to be a classic Dan Marino pose otherwise it’s a dying duck.

by h34tx on Oct 25, 2010 11:44 PM CDT reply actions  

GG is a Longhorn, and I’ll always pull for him, but I found it laughable that MANY people were worried about him leaving after his (true) Jr year before he’d played at all.

by ut-06 on Oct 26, 2010 12:27 AM CDT reply actions  

ut-06,

Mark that up to arrogance. Fans are not immune to that disease.

by Whistling on Oct 26, 2010 6:39 AM CDT reply actions  

I have trouble putting the blame for QB shortcomings totally on Gilbert’s shoulders. This coaching staff (I use the term “coaching” loosely) has taken the best passer in Texas high school history and attempted to turn him into a “drop back” QB. Hell, he was successful in high school running the spread offense. That is what he should be running here. But noooo, our omniscient coaches (Mack and Davis) want to feed their egos by forcing Garrett into something he isn’t. They tried to do the same thing with Vince, but he wasn’t going for it. These idiots don’t understand that you build your program around the talent you have and don’t take your talent and turn them into what you want them to be. That, as we are learning, is a FU of the first magnitude.

by gottago3 on Oct 26, 2010 6:42 AM CDT reply actions  

adt, here’s your chance. You have made a qualitative assessment (to paraphrase you, GG is not an accurate passer). Tell me- how much less accurate than Colt (my memory differs from yours- I remember Colt making several passes that were off, and struggling with deep balls, and I’m one of his biggest fans)? Than Vince? How much? Enough to explain why we went from averaging 3 points/drive before 2010 to less than 2 points per drive in 2010? Are you saying that our offense would be fine if only Gilbert were replaced? Or does he need to try harder?

Come on, give us something besides a panning of GG. Hell, any of us can do that, and we don’t need a keyboard for it.

by TaylorTRoom on Oct 26, 2010 7:22 AM CDT reply actions  

“GG is a Longhorn, and I’ll always pull for him, but I found it laughable that MANY people were worried about him leaving after his (true) Jr year before he’d played at all.”

Only topped by the worry that Christian Scott would leave after this year. All of our players are All Americans during the offseason, and Scott had 2 offseasons to in which to let the hype build. Offseason heisman, IMO.

by Horncasting on Oct 26, 2010 11:22 AM CDT reply actions  

Kafka/Brick – I’m still not convinced it wasn’t a decision that was forced on them. If they get Ryan P. (and he behaves), and then Harris or Chiles turn out to be VY-lite (say any one of Denard Robinson, Cam Newton, Dennis Dixon, Pat White, Jacory Harris, etc.) I don’t think they recruit Gilbert or any of Case, Wood or Ash.

by Horncasting on Oct 26, 2010 11:42 AM CDT reply actions  

Old Man Mack needs to get the fuck embarassed out of him for the rest of the year to make changes. Winning does this team no fucking good this year because it’ll just mean more of the same bullshit “offense” next year.

by yojimbox on Oct 26, 2010 12:13 PM CDT reply actions  

If we had kept John Brantley we wouldnt have to watch GG struggle.

Does that make anybody feel better?

by bullzak on Oct 26, 2010 12:26 PM CDT reply actions  

maninblack: "We moved away from what brought us the most success in the program’s history b/c of Mack and Greg’s arrogance. "

In all fairness, we moved away from the most successful scheme in the program’s history because defenses learned how to stop the wishbone.

by LongCat on Oct 26, 2010 1:47 PM CDT reply actions  

Show me that college defenses have learned to stop the dual threat spread QB.

by Scipio Tex on Oct 26, 2010 2:49 PM CDT reply actions  

I am not sure anybody ever really stopped OU’s version of the wishbone except the cops and some incredibly talented Miami and Husker teams.

I think there is a decent chance that if you brought the Jamelle Holieway Sooners back en masse they would kick plenty of ass right now.

Maybe I am just scarred for life by Joe Washingtons silver shoes.

by bullzak on Oct 26, 2010 4:06 PM CDT reply actions  

Maybe I am just scarred for life by Joe Washington’s silver shoes.

Bubba, you ain’t the only one with those cleat marks… mine are in a place where medical science claims they were installed by DeBakey.

by Tex Long on Oct 26, 2010 5:41 PM CDT reply actions  

yojimbox said:
October 26th, 2010 at 10:13 am
Old Man Mack needs to get the fuck embarassed out of him for the rest of the year to make changes. Winning does this team no fucking good this year because it’ll just mean more of
the same bullshit "offense" next year.

This.

And I still think the odds of meaningful changes are low.

by double b on Oct 26, 2010 6:01 PM CDT reply actions  

Humans can learn to catch; catching is a learned skill. A human that practices catching thrown footballs will become proficient at it.

Having hands large enough to consistently and easily catch a football is an innate trait; humans must possess this trait innately, or they cannot possess it at all. Fortunately, hand size is easily measured in humans that are no longer growing (i.e. 18 year old humans).

I don’t think that things can be made any simpler than that. The obvious implication is that somebody on the coaching staff is fucking up badly, either in terms of recruiting people without the physical tools to catch a football or failing to develop that skill in sufficiently endowed players.

by MaduroUTMB on Oct 26, 2010 10:59 PM CDT reply actions  

Had a problem with Wordpress, so I’ll just sign in as me since nobody on here as a FC, who I am. There are several posters on this site that I think know what they’re talking about. This poster is one. ScipioTex is another.. TTRs quip about his old boss reminds me of one of mine that started every approach to him with something contrary to where we seemed to be going with " In God we trust. Everybody else had better be bringing data."

Been watching FB for over 40 years, played it through the JC level, then watched a real OC coach my kid to a 1900 yard passing season with 1 receiver, no blocking, and a medicore D. At the 5A level. (yeah, he was way better than me, but then so was every other QB after 1980).

I digress. Coaches, esp. those working at UT are supposed to be good enough to take the kids they’ve drafted and coach them “up”. On the offensive side of the ball in Austin, that hasn’t happened, including VY and Colt. Those two just WERE. VY was all galactic (since we don’t know if FB is played outside of the Milky Way, and Colt just had the smarts and moxie) (did I just date myself? Likely) to overcome an OC that was probably headed to the Loo since his Flomax had worn out and told the guy sitting next to him to call a running play. On 3rd and 23.

We recruit them, we give them a dorm room, then we start jacking with their confidence, technique, and their 18 or 19 year old minds.

Confidence should flow from coach to player. Looks like a dry creekbed to me.

To sum it up, if GG hasn’t been destroyed mentally by GD, there is hope. If GD skates. If not, we’re all doomed, DOOMED, I say. Clean house on the “professionals” and we might get back on track….next year.

by RABaker on Oct 27, 2010 12:05 AM CDT reply actions  

You people aren’t Texas fans. Who says shit like this on the internet for all of our recruits to read unless they WANT them to de-commit and go elsewhere. Jesus, you people that are talking like this are pathetic.

by Jones on Nov 1, 2010 2:24 AM CDT reply actions  

In my opinion the decision to start Gilbert at the start of the year was good. He did outstanding in the national title game considering the circumstances. And in the first couple of games he managed. He didn’t do outstanding, but he was able to pull out a win. However as the year went on it was clear the longhorns O line was not what Gilbert needed. He could probably be great with a good line, but Texas has been able to work around this with a QB that could run. Gilbert can’t run to good, so he has trouble making plays. I think they need to invest in a line that can keep Gilbert up, and change the offense to a drop back spread offense, or get a QB with good running ability. Heck, look at a six man spread back, they make livings making split decisions about throwing or running. If they need another McCoy maybe they need to look at a six man school, haha, try breed speed and have some good arms.

by JD Wheeler on Feb 25, 2011 2:44 PM CST reply actions  

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