Texas-Baylor 2010 Offense Preview: Bad vs. Worse?
I'll make this short and simple because our offense managed 21 points and three quarters of futility against the worst defense in the league and, for the year, has featured one of the great mail-it-in jobs of Longhorn history at the coordinator level, so predicting success against the 9th or 10th best defense in the league isn't something I can do with any confidence.
Philosophically, Baylor is trying to pair a gigantic front with an active back 7 to give them a combination of athletes that can stop the spread and the run game. Not a bad idea, but they don't have the quality of player to make it go right now and the result is a disjointed defense that's exploitable for any offense that operates with some precision and pace. Baylor is improved on defense - allowing 5.2 yards per play is considered respectable in snake handling country - but any legitimate team puts 38 on them without much concern.
DL
Huge DL. The tackles Taylor and Jean-Baptiste go 330 and 340+. Phil Taylor has played much better than last year's preseason hype egg-laying, but I wouldn't call him dominant, though I would call him sir if I met him in a dark alley. As you'd expect, they can be very disruptive in short bursts, but if you can maintain drives, they're not feeling so good on play #8, particularly rushing the passer. We've been murdered by backside pursuit in our running game all year, but these are guys that we can possibly bust a zone run on if they surrender to exhaustion and we can release on Baylor's LB crew. The two DEs are discrete in their functions - Elliott is a 245 pound pass rusher; Robertson is a 280 pound run stopper. Robertson isn't that active and presents no pass rushing threat (Britt Mitchell spared) but Elliott has 5 sacks on the year and must be accounted for. He's a good young player and very disruptive.
Based on what I just offered, you probably have a good sense how to attack these guys and where to focus our protection on 3rd down, but that also assumes you - 1. care or 2. try.
Neither is a given for us on offense.
LB
Antonio Johnson is a good player and Baylor is not shy about bringing him after the QB on passing downs. He's a very active guy who covers a lot of ground and it feels like he has been starting there forever. He's smallish. The other two - Coffey and Francis - are JAGs. They're OK. They're second and third on the team in tackles, but that's a function of how they funnel their defense more than their ability.
If DJ Monroe were on our team, I would try to get him isolated in space on some of these guys.
DB
In the two games I saw, TCU and Tech carved them up like a Christmas goose, but their overall numbers aren't horrible for the season. We have no ability to guess at the efficacy of our passing game because we are an offense without useful comparators as our game strategy and execution are basically unknowable. And unfathomable. Byron Landor is the leading tackler on the team and they have some experience back there. Good size across the board too, so there are no obvious physical mismatches to exploit. Or not exploit. Opponents are completing 63.7% of their passes against Baylor at 6.7 yards per attempt, so this is a group very much inclined to keep the receivers in front of them and make the tackle and avoid the big play. A pretty toxic combination when paired with GD's horizontal instincts.
If there's any consolation here at all, I won't have to hear broadcasters blowing former Baylor safety Jordan Lake as he works his way to another bullshit All-Conference team while giving up 70 yard touchdowns looking like a coach on the field.
Overall
Baylor has problems on defense despite some improvements from last year and they're being carried by an explosive offense. They surrendered 35 to TCU in the first half and most of the offenses they've played with a pulse have scored plenty on them, including Tech, Colorado, and KSU. Let me correct that - some of those teams don't have a pulse on offense and they still scored.
It doesn't matter. Our offense is fully capable of putting up anywhere between 10-38 points on Saturday and I don't really care to involve myself in the guessing game to figure out which it will be. Forecasting whether Greg Davis is going to put forth an effort has gotten old for me. We'll find out on Saturday. If we're terrible again, I'll shrug and go hit the heavy bag. If we don't, I'm stupid enough to start conjuring scenarios in which we can manage to win the rest of our games.
I can't wait to see what's in the mystery package! It's like Christmas in a dysfunctional home! Maybe it's a dead kitten. Maybe it's a pellet gun or some watercolors. Maybe it's pack of Marlboros. But I bet whatever it is will be exciting.
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“a disjointed defense that’s exploitable for any offense that operates with some precision and pace.”
Ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha!
by Levander Williams on Oct 28, 2010 4:19 PM CDT reply actions
“disjointed defense that’s exploitable for any offense that operates with some precision and pace”
(Lloyd Christmas voice) So, you’re saying there’s a chance? (Lloyd Christmas voice)
by stuckinmn on Oct 28, 2010 4:21 PM CDT reply actions
If DJ Monroe were on our team, I would try to get him isolated in space on some of these guys.
Dude is so elusive his own coaches can’t even see him.
Now, that’s some speed, right there.
by parlin on Oct 28, 2010 4:53 PM CDT reply actions
Finally a nickname for the offense. The dead kittens.
by ultralight on Oct 28, 2010 5:08 PM CDT reply actions
I can’t wait to see what’s in the mystery package! It’s like Christmas in a Juarez barrio. Maybe it’s a craft-leather bullwhip, some bootlegged Whitesnake cassette tapes, or sombreros made in China. Maybe its some raw sewage. Maybe it’s a brick of raid-laced shwag. Maybe it’s a raped and mutilated maquiladora. But I bet whatever it is will be revolting.
by Texastough on Oct 28, 2010 5:15 PM CDT reply actions
“I won’t have to hear broadcasters blowing former Baylor safety Jordan Lake as he works his way to another bullshit All-Conference team while giving up 70 yard touchdowns looking like a coach on the field”
The template that Blake Gideon is following to a T.
Someone get BG a mohawk and some badass red contact lenses!
by CrazyJoeDavola on Oct 28, 2010 5:20 PM CDT reply actions
Awww, what’s in the box, WHAT’S IN THE BOX??
by Detective Mills on Oct 28, 2010 5:22 PM CDT reply actions
These previews are definitely funnier now that we’ve lost all hope.
At least we all know what to expect for the first 1 to 3 plays of the game.
by texasengr on Oct 28, 2010 5:54 PM CDT reply actions
Pass. Complete! Tackled immediately. Second and 12.
Pass. Complete! Tackled immediately. Third and 14.
Pass. Complete! Tackled immediately. Fourth and 7.
Punt.
What a day, sports fans. Garrett Gilbert has completed his first fifteen passes without a miss. For fifteen yards. But Texas does have a first down on the Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty on the Bears, for pointing at Texas players and laughing aloud.
by Tex Long on Oct 28, 2010 6:17 PM CDT reply actions
The obvious strategy for our offense is to prevent the Baylor defense from causing turnovers.
by jmanh on Oct 28, 2010 6:34 PM CDT reply actions
I’m going with bad for 200, Bob.
Worse is next week.
by exuLt on Oct 28, 2010 7:22 PM CDT reply actions
Come on Horns, beat the mighty Baylor Bears! You can do it if you play your best. You just have to believe (and ignore all play calls coming from GD.)
by Longhorn in Canada on Oct 28, 2010 8:01 PM CDT reply actions
After reading that, I need several Mooseheads and maybe a few beers as well.
by Holy Cow on Oct 28, 2010 9:42 PM CDT reply actions
Worst is the incredible display of gutless pitching dumbassery I just witnessed.
Hopefully Nolan headlocks and gives them The Ventura in the locker room.
by Worse than GDGD on Oct 28, 2010 9:57 PM CDT reply actions
Who knows what will happen when the Resistable Force meets the Movable Object.
by Editionshield on Oct 28, 2010 10:14 PM CDT reply actions
Good stuff. A lot better than the drivel posted on “inside Texas” and I actually pay for that. Not after this year. Scipio you are the best.
by Alan on Oct 28, 2010 10:20 PM CDT reply actions
But Britt Mitchell will not be spared. That 280 lb piece of furniture opposite him will look like Bruce Smith.
And a Whitesnake cassette with Crying in the Rain would be a nice present. Maybe I could sneak it into the Adzillatron controller, like in Diamonds are Forever, and wreck the whole Round Rock Express game day template.
by Juice on Oct 28, 2010 11:20 PM CDT reply actions
When I look at this (previously) glorious program, with everything in place, all the money, talent, etc., I think of the Michael Lewis book Moneyball.
I forget the exact numbers, but basically he said that the very very worst teams in baseball, with say a payroll of only $20 million, will win no less than about 55 games. And the very best teams, with say a payroll of $200 million, will win no more than about 115 games. The point was to show that the marginal cost of a win is very high if your solution to winning is throwing money (talent) at it.
All around college football there are programs that have found ways to win with average talent. Development, scheme, chemistry. We have none of it. Our exposure, revenue, and networking within the state have allowed UT to get some of the very best talent, but it seems to be the only thing we rely on anymore, and talent alone just doesn’t get it done. We are the New York Mets of college football.
by Nero on Oct 29, 2010 12:04 AM CDT reply actions
I don’t know how you do it, Scipio.
It’s a Sisyphean task to analyze each game of a season that’s as excruciating as 3 hours at a strip club with no happy ending.
Our offense excels at cock blocking.
by Texoz on Oct 29, 2010 12:05 AM CDT reply actions
Texoz, there’s some magic on those tapes right there. “Our offense excels at cock blocking.” Pretty much everything wrapped up in six words, plus the bonus of a sex reference, a football reference, and a software reference tucked in there (kind of). Perfect for a BC shirt.
by Nero on Oct 29, 2010 12:38 AM CDT reply actions
If there were ever a game where DJ Monroe should play this is it. Doubt we’ll be able to run “between the tackes” due to their huge DTs. DJ needs to play into the game plan and Gilbert needs to complete passes. If we lose this one we could easily lose every game the rest of the season. Unbelievable that it’s come to this given how individually talented most of our guys are.
by CA_Longhorn on Oct 29, 2010 12:59 AM CDT reply actions
What’s in the box?
An official Red Ryder, carbine action, two-hundred shot range model air rifle!
I, for one, may shoot my eyes out.
by Magnificent Bastard on Oct 29, 2010 7:54 AM CDT reply actions
And RE:
you probably have a good sense how to attack these guys
Big DL like that would probably tire quickly running sideline to sideline, right?
by Magnificent Bastard on Oct 29, 2010 7:56 AM CDT reply actions
1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Greg stuffs his junk in that box
3. Texas fans open that box
And that’s how you get the offense we got!
by jinx on Oct 29, 2010 8:34 AM CDT reply actions
What’s in the box or hole reminds me of the time we went fishingin biloixi. After the casinos this cab driver asked if we would like to pay for the services to receive a quick BJ. It sounded too good to be true so we said no thanks.
Shockingly the cab responds “normally tourists say yes since it’s only 20 bucks to put your junk through this hole (think porky’s shower scene). They are happy with the situatio. However I’m with you guys, it could be guy or girl behind that wall.”
by Mysterious Package on Oct 29, 2010 9:40 AM CDT reply actions
jinx – circle gets the square on that one. very well done.
by Dude on Oct 29, 2010 10:05 AM CDT reply actions
Don’t look now but TCU is us. How did that happen Greg? What is your theory?
by derryl on Oct 29, 2010 10:10 AM CDT reply actions
When I ponder our offense, “glory hole” is not the first thing that comes to mind.
Sodomy laws, on the other hand …
by BEHorn on Oct 29, 2010 10:48 AM CDT reply actions
I want it pointed out that Mysterious Package had his name long before this post.
by Scipio Tex on Oct 29, 2010 11:40 AM CDT reply actions
Now that the season is in the dumpster it would be classic Davis to show a balanced attack featuring crossing routes, a couple of sluggos for TDs, gashing the middle of the field, 100 yards receiving by a TE, and probably a counter trey or two.
We win by 50 and it feels like a loss.
I cant even process how bad that would all suck.
by bullzak on Oct 29, 2010 11:48 AM CDT reply actions
Anybody want to give me odds that we slam DJ Munroe into the middle of the line for a smoooth 10 carries for 16 yards?
by Bateshorn on Oct 29, 2010 12:13 PM CDT reply actions
May I suggest Texas come out in all-black jerseys with no names on the back?
I mean, it is BAYLOR, you know.
by spider on Oct 29, 2010 12:40 PM CDT reply actions
“Anybody want to give me odds that we slam DJ Munroe into the middle of the line for a smoooth 10 carries for 16 yards?”
Not a chance in hell!
I just hope he doesn’t fumble because then we won’t see him again until he is in the NFL.
by uthookem on Oct 29, 2010 12:47 PM CDT reply actions
Bullzak – I have nightmares about that exact scenario. Our offense gets a little something going, we manage to win most of the rest of the games, by that time people have generally forgotten the putrid first 2/3 of the season, have some hope, and GD stays indefinitely.
by Texastough on Oct 29, 2010 1:02 PM CDT reply actions
I have nightmares about that exact scenario.
Of course you do. That’s because you’re an Arrogant Bastard, a typical Texas fan who thinks a 9-3 season and a win in a Toilet Bowl is a Bad Thing.
Somewhere Mike Leach is laughing his ass off – and that’s a lotta laughing.
by Tex Long on Oct 29, 2010 4:47 PM CDT reply actions
I may be an arrogant bastard, but the nightmare is because 100 other D1 teams wouldn’t touch our offense with a 10-foot pole (they might like to touch our players, especially guys like Nutt, I’m talking scheme). If we don’t start doing something rational that has some football sense on O I’m going to jump.
Speaking of, did CTJ finally do it?
by Texastough on Oct 29, 2010 5:41 PM CDT reply actions
Of course you do. That’s because you’re an Arrogant Bastard, a typical Texas fan who thinks a 9-3 season and a win in a Toilet Bowl is a Bad Thing.
Say, would you happen to be an Aggie performing weddings in the Maldives?
by Pork chops on Oct 29, 2010 6:22 PM CDT reply actions
Texastough, CTJ posts on shaggybevo and I think he’s supporting “banner-gate.”
So, yeah, I think he may jump out of a banner-carrying prop plane as it flies over DKR.
by Texoz on Oct 29, 2010 7:35 PM CDT reply actions
Just rolled into Austin for another fun-filled Horn game. I almost blew it off, but figured I owed it to Colt to make the effort. 320 miles is too far to drive to watch GD’s offense, so I’m not sure how many more games I’ll see this year. Fuck you, Greg.
by Blueshorn on Oct 29, 2010 7:45 PM CDT reply actions
Say, would you happen to be an Aggie performing weddings in the Maldives?
For the right offer, I could be.
This week, tho’, I’m waiting to see if we can match a record that actually predates the world-famous agy MNC of 1939 – back-to-back losses at home is claimed not to have happened since 1938, but I don’t see how the ‘56 team avoided that.,, maybe the schedule didn’t have consecutive weekends in Austin or maybe the only time it happened was their one win. Where’s my record book?
by Tex Long on Oct 30, 2010 9:59 AM CDT reply actions
“If DJ Monroe were on our team, I would try to get him isolated in space on some of these guys”
—love the truth-based sarcasm, bro’.
“Opponents are completing 63.7% of their passes against Baylor at 6.7 yards per attempt, so this is a group very much inclined to keep the receivers in front of them and make the tackle and avoid the big play. A pretty toxic combination when paired with GD’s horizontal instincts.”
—toxic, yes, but also a GD wet dream, since he’ll relish “taking what the defense gives us” in that manner.
by SlickStreet on Oct 30, 2010 10:22 AM CDT reply actions
Any bad fan lectures or protect this DKR house castle e-mails this week?
by Homesick Alien on Oct 30, 2010 12:06 PM CDT reply actions
by Casey on Oct 30, 2010 2:27 PM CDT reply actions
Do note that Timberlflake is wearing burnt orange.
by Casey on Oct 30, 2010 2:28 PM CDT reply actions
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by buscar on Jul 9, 2011 7:40 PM CDT reply actions

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