Texas - Kansas State Preview

by Scipio Tex on Nov 5, 2010 5:22 PM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

I watched ~~Daniel Thomas~~ Kansas State a couple of times this year and they're a scrappy, if somewhat limited, team. They're definitely a hell of a lot better coached than we are on offense and they've not evidenced much trouble handling the Longhorns even when we had solid teams. They own us, right?

Like Iowa State and Baylor, their defense has been miserable all year, but given that those teams held us to 21.5 ppg, I'm not sure if that's really all that encouraging.

As it has in every game this year, the game result relies almost entirely on our defense and the ability of our offense and special teams not to shoot themselves in the foot. If they can hit some lay-ups, we can certainly go in and get a win.

Should we lose this game, we go under .500 for the year, we'd still be two games from bowl eligibility, and we'd match the loss total of the last three years combined. With those cheery thoughts, let's talk KSU.

Offense

Let me see if I can adequately summarize the KSU offense:

- Daniel Thomas from wildcat, lead draw
- Daniel Thomas, zone read
- Daniel Thomas, counter, from the I
- Fake to Daniel Thomas, Carson Coffman skips ball nine feet from Aubrey Quarles
- Daniel Thomas from wildcat, zone read
- Fake to Daniel Thomas, Carson Coffman throws to Daniel Thomas in flat
- Daniel Thomas serves Gatorade to teammates
- Daniel Thomas sells programs and tickets to Manhattan Turnip Jamboree
- Daniel Thomas counsels concessions manager to restock mustard
- Daniel Thomas, HB lead draw
- Carson Coffman fakes to Daniel Thomas, keeps ball

Rinse, wash, repeat.

Carson Coffman is a bus driver. And when I say a bus driver, I mean an overweight African-American woman who hums Teddy Pendergrass gospel tunes and won't hesitate to redden your ass if you act a fool. He's pretty much like Shirley Hemphill from What's Happening.

178-118-1315 - 8td - 6 int

His numbers aren't horrendous (a hell of a lot better than ours), but everything he does is built off of the overplay on Daniel Thomas. He's 6-5 and lanky. He'll run a little bit and does so somewhat capably, but he looks a like a giant enraged goose when he does it.

Daniel Thomas is the team. 196-996-10tds-5.1 average. He's 6-2, 230 and more athletic than straight line fast. That's why he's so dangerous in the Wildcat - he searches out seams, plants, and then rips off 15 yards. Sneaky strong in that he doesn't bulldoze people, but he does shrug off glancing blows and he'll run right through arm tackles with powerful hips. He's a big slasher and he's always looking for the cutback lane. LB discipline will be huge and I don't like him on our safeties. He's too big and athletic in the open field. Get him stopped before he starts - that's the key to the game.

His back-up, Powell, is an explosive runner and a nice change-up pitch for them.

WR/TE

Quarles (33-434-3tds) is the only true reliable receiver and he's having a good year. Otherwise, K State flips it out to Thomas. There are some other guys who are reasonably wide open sometimes and Carson Coffman usually delivers it to them on a short hop fielder's choice. With Aaron Williams likely out or this game and Curtis Brown struggling with a bad back, a Quarles-Chykie showdown will happen at some stage. Chykie - take the 15 yard pass interference, dude.

Not many stars next to these guys when they came out of high school and/or JUCO but they're effective blocking for Thomas largely because of the diversity of Snyder's running schemes and the fact that they have a system and running identity. They use angles, formation, movement, down blocking, and timing to make their running game go and if you gang up on the run, they'll try to hit you over the top. They don't pass block well in traditional passing situations and opponents have racked up 18 sacks on the year so far.

Get KSU in 3rd and 7+ and we're in good shape.

They do hit an athletic wall against better quality fronts and that was well-evidenced against Nebraska and UCF. I expect us to give them problems - particularly from Acho and Randall - but we have to keep them from hitting the big play. Sure tackling from the safety position and capable play from our #2 DT is the key there.

With an offense likely incapable of forcing KSU out of their game plan, KSU will be able to wear us down as the game goes on. If we were able to jump out to a lead, this is a team you can blow out. But we can't. So expect a slog. If we're sloppy, a UCLA style 2nd half meltdown is entirely possible.

Defense

Bad defense. Base nickel 4-2-5. They're surrendering 25.6 ppg and it's worse than that - as evidenced by 438 ypg and 6.2 yards per opponent play. They offered up 47 to Baylor and 48 to the Cornhuskers. They held down OSU to 24, but that was without Justin Blackmon and OSU ran up and down the field with 511 yards of offense utilizing Bo Bowling as their #1 WR. The other offenses KSU faced were rather weak and any offense with a pulse dropped 500+ yards on them. We did nothing against ISU and Baylor's miserable defenses, so I'm not confident we'll do much better than 20-24 points. The real key is whether our offense slits our own throat in the process.

An unexceptional group on the whole. The interior DL is smallish, but I'm not sure we have the patience or desire to do much about that. They're allowing 5.7 yards per rush. That's not a mistype.

6-6 260 pound DE Brandon Harold looked fantastic as a freshman and he has immense talent, but he's a little off this year. I'm not sure what's up. The other DE is undersized and they've had trouble getting pressure on the QB rushing 4 all year.

Again, 5.7 yards per rush. Take out sack yardage and this front 7 is surrendering 6 and half yards a pop on the ground. If we can't run the ball on them - or don't even try to do so - I'm driving to Best Buy for a new TV because my old one will have a hiking shoe embedded in the screen. So, looks like I'm getting a new TV.

The leading tackler is Hrebec. We meet again, Hrebec! I will take SWORDS for $500!

He's 5-11, 250 and straight out of central casting for the Big 10. I bet Greg Davis notices this and attacks him in pass coverage. Ha ha. Just kidding.

The other LB is a JAG.

David Garrett is a dynamite little player that they like to bring on blitzes and stunts. He's 5-8 175 but will still rock you. He has 3 sacks, 8.5 tfl, and a Napoleonic complex.

S Tysyn Hartman lacks vowels and coverage ability in space. He's a big safety and we should make some effort to exploit that.

The DBs have been OK for K-State given their pass rush deficiencies, but crack coverage guys they are not.

Overall

This is a very poor defense, paired with an under-talented, but productive offense, led by one of the best coaches in college football. Our teams are very much comparable in performance, but KSU is maximizing what they have while we are brutal underachievers. We can absolutely beat this team if we will attack KSU's glaring deficiencies in run defense and then use their overcompensation to make the passing game go. I fear that we're not capable of doing that.

On defense, KSU can be effective against us running the ball if our offense allows them to remain stubborn. If we can duplicate what we did against NU on offense - play smart, don't turn it over, convert early short field TDs, the defense could very well dominate. If we keep it close and allow KSU to try out their Swiss Army Knife of running game looks on us for four quarters, I expect our dam to burst late.

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Comments

Good analysis, as usual. I was particularly happy to see this:

His back-up, Powell, is an explosive runner and a nice change-up pitch for them.

I was beginning to think I was the only one who had noticed that. Snyder certainly hasn’t. For reasons unclear to me, Powell only has 11 carries in the last six games, despite averaging better than 9 yards per carry. Maybe he’s tired from racking up all those kick return yards.

by hongabear on Nov 5, 2010 6:03 PM CDT reply actions

You headed over for the fun in Oakland tonight, scip?

Looks like a party and a half!

by CrazyJoeDavola on Nov 5, 2010 6:58 PM CDT reply actions

Aaron Williams is officially out.

by Bill on Nov 5, 2010 7:01 PM CDT reply actions

http://collegesportsblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/11/texas-cb-aaron-williams-to-miss-k-state.html

by Bill on Nov 5, 2010 7:02 PM CDT reply actions

Your lead-in pic is prescient and brilliant, Scip. Does Carson Kressley show up, or not?

Who knows?

I don’t.

by Voice of Reason on Nov 5, 2010 7:10 PM CDT reply actions

For some reason I just like us. Prince owned us, Synder just had better teams when they played us. AW is a big loss, as he would have allowed us to flood the box even more, but I think we break out the Nebraska game plan and effort.

Lost in our offensivbe futility the last two weeks, was the fact that we actually looked really good at times on “O”. We (GD) just showed no ability to determine what was actually working/not working and play to that. I am hopefull that we have figured some of that out; as it relates to players in the game and situational play calling. A small improvement here would go a long way.

by fear_the_cow on Nov 5, 2010 7:39 PM CDT reply actions

Big key will be switching the Kats butter in the pre-game meal from soft spread to hard pads. Snydyer will be too distracted berating the manager of the hotel that maybe Texas can get up early.

If you think that sounds stupid is it any dumber than to expect GD to have gameplanned for this game after the last two weeks?

by Davey O'Brien on Nov 5, 2010 7:42 PM CDT reply actions

Who’s the 4.25 guy who will be running back a punt for a TD against us? I didn’t see that in your preview.

Also, you mentioned something about sure tackling from the safety position on our part. I assume that’s a typo.

Once we can get those errors corrected this will be a fine write-up.

by spit and tears on Nov 5, 2010 8:36 PM CDT reply actions

Our best drive against Baylor, the one that built the 19-10 lead, was built on running plays. It’s so clearly the strength of this team and it’s my greatest frustration of the season that we don’t utilize it 35-40 times per game.

Davis treats the RB draw and inside zone as plays to spring on the defense every now and then to probe for weakness to exploit in the passing game. Our patience with the ground attack is non-existent.

What’s really incredible is that Mack knew this in the offseason when he re-emphasized the running game, and they seemed aware in the Nebraska game that the offensive strengths lined up with the weakness of the Huskers (the tackles) which happens to be the main weakness of every team in the conference.

Not sticking with the running game and plowing over everyone to at least a 10-2 regular season record was the tactical equivalent of invading the Soviet Union without winter clothes.

by Nickel Rover on Nov 5, 2010 9:39 PM CDT reply actions

The Pen is Mightier.

by Juice on Nov 5, 2010 9:46 PM CDT reply actions

“Carson Coffman is a bus driver. And when I say a bus driver, I mean an overweight African-American woman who hums Teddy Pendergrass gospel tunes and won’t hesitate to redden your ass if you act a fool. He’s pretty much like Shirley Hemphill from What’s Happening” posted by Scipio Tex

Classic !

by torre on Nov 5, 2010 10:18 PM CDT reply actions

Whatever happened to the mudhole post? I used to make my week by that.

by Nostalgic Horn Fan on Nov 5, 2010 11:53 PM CDT reply actions

Awesome. Gideon might have already hosed us for this game without even setting foot in Manhattan.

by Bob on Nov 6, 2010 12:21 AM CDT reply actions

Whatever happened to the mudhole post? I used to make my week by that.

Greg Davis

by Bob on Nov 6, 2010 12:23 AM CDT reply actions

Gideon strikes again!

by Mysterious Package on Nov 6, 2010 12:43 AM CDT reply actions

key to this game is our defense forcing infinity turnovers[/MackBrown]

by Bill Paxton from Twister on Nov 6, 2010 1:03 AM CDT reply actions

There’s still the question of special teams. We haven’t shown any real improvement or consistency there all season, and at last glance, the depth chart didn’t look any different, though there is the rumor of other players practicing at punt return.

Are we looking at any trouble in any phase of special teams? We’ve managed to give up points and field position against everybody else. Do they cause trouble there, or do we just have to worry about avoiding our own bumbling?

by Gate_of_Horn on Nov 6, 2010 2:20 AM CDT reply actions

Nickle Rover -

Spot on. I have noticed this too. I think GD grows impatient with 4 yard gains on teh ground. It doesn’t show off his genious. He mentally can’t differentiate between 2 yard and 4 yard gains on teh ground. If it is not an explosive (running), it bores him.

And we have the kind of running team that is not going to bust many big. But we do have a team that can get lots of 4-8 yard runs if we jsut stick with it.

by fear_the_cow on Nov 6, 2010 2:23 AM CDT reply actions

Well, he has no problem making 4-8 yard gains in the air so I’m not sure if that’s it. I’m not sure he actually knows how to coordinate a running attack at all and always feels more comfortable doing it through the air.

When Texas is in a safe position he’s shown willingness to repeatedly call runs that are consistently gaining 2-9 yards this season and often open up the passing game for a few explosives that carry drives. As soon as he feels like Texas has to score though he’s sending EBS every which way and calling plays that result in numbers like 34-57.

by Nickel Rover on Nov 6, 2010 6:04 AM CDT reply actions

Just not optimistic at all. The offense will likely put another steaming pile of shit on the field while the defense will play well on 90% of the plays. The other 10% will be a combination of Gideon angles, Chykie deep coverage and random personal fouls after we stop them on third down.

After we lose 24-13 Mack Brown will devote 75% of his press conference talking about the problems with the defense.

by Newy25 on Nov 6, 2010 7:02 AM CDT reply actions

I just saw for the first time this year (you can tell it’s shopping season) the Kay Jewelers’ Doctor Quinn Medicine Woman “Open Heart Collection” pendant necklace.

More like the Open Butt collection. Seriously, I don’t know who does focus groups at Kay Jewelers, but that p.o.s. piece of vending machine sparkle looks like two butts glued together.

Which, incidentally, is what our team looks like. Butt (offense) Butt (special teams) and some poorly polished diamonds (defense) all glued together. Hanging around my neck like an emotional albatross. Coleridge ftw.

by Nero on Nov 6, 2010 8:06 AM CDT reply actions

It’s getting so bad I’m beginning to think GD is a betting man. No one can be that stupid.

by derryl on Nov 6, 2010 9:12 AM CDT reply actions

I noted over at HF that the 2005 Texas juggernaut threw the ball about 33% of the time for 9 YPA.

This one throws over 50% the time for 6 YPA.

Someone once said that Davis seems to call running plays to buy him time to dial up more passing plays. He certainly doesnt seem committed to the run game at all.

Seriously, if Cody Johnson got 20 carries in a game I think he gets near 100 because he breaks a couple of 20 yarders. Run him till his big ass falls off and you might find something.

by bullzak on Nov 6, 2010 10:02 AM CDT reply actions

Just wanted to drop in and say that, in the interests of football solidarity for the state of Texas, I hope your guys blast those guys.

Go Horns!

by Philly Frog on Nov 6, 2010 12:28 PM CDT reply actions

I was liking Texas a lot in this game. Why? Because it’s a road game. Hearing AW is out has changed my mind. Not so sure, now.

Watching OK State lead Baylor 31-0 in the 3rd quarter is a painful reminder how sucky we are.

by texoz on Nov 6, 2010 1:46 PM CDT reply actions

Yep. For all of you that still think that Will, Greggie and Mack/Mac are doing anything other than a miserable coaching job this year, I give you Okie Lite 41 Baylor 7.

by ransomstoddard on Nov 6, 2010 2:15 PM CDT reply actions