Sadistical Analysis

Uncle

So put in Chase! God people, it’s not that hard!

Yes, I do. None of our skill position players have been as good as advertised on recruiting day. Our O-line has little depth and can’t open lanes against the worst run defenses in the country. The talent that’s around is young and undeveloped. Our best quarterback is a sophomore. Our best lineman is a redshirt freshman. Our best WR is a true freshman. Our best RB and TE are still in high school.

Granted, it also seems that the coaching has been piss-poor. But we’ve also seen good players overcome bad coaching in the past. These players aren’t good enough to do that – at least, not in 2010.

I dropped my Orangebloods subscription largely due to “prominent” posters who confuse post count with intelligence. That and Ketch’s infatuation with the Cowboys. I once got into a long argument with THE most prominent poster on Orangebloods who kept asserting that paying a higher interest rate on a mortgage was better because you get more tax deductions. Of course he had 35647867596876 posts and I had about 600 so he was obviously correct. Thanks for reminding me why I am glad I no longer subscribe, especially since I can read much more insightful analysis here for free.

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

If Davis is gone after the A&M game it was all worth it.

Nickel, that made me laugh, which was inappropriate due to the classroom setting. Sadly those you mock will be along shortly to miss the point entirely.

“None of our skill position players have been as good as advertised on recruiting day.”

Malcolm Williams was twice the player he is now as a true freshman. D.J. Monroe is D.J. Monroe, and he never plays. Ever. Think Dana Holgerson could find some ways to get those guys involved?

If Davis gets the boot, this will be Mack’s third best season in his entire coaching tenure.

“do you really, honestly believe that Texas has less talent on offense than Baylor, Rice, Iowa State, Kansas State, UCLA, etc. have on defense?”

Yes, I really, honestly do. The talent evaluation over the last 2 or 3 years has been a complete disaster at virtually every offensive position, and definitely at the ones that matter most. Heads must roll for this debacle.

God, I hope GD and Mack are back for next year, plus this whole cast of retards. I’ve won 4 weeks in a roll betting against Mack’s retarded team. Thanks, Mack Brown and Greg Davis! Stay as long as you want, boys!

Here is the sadistical analysis that makes me sick.

In our six losses we have scored a grand total of 28 points in the combined first halves. We have exactly one touchdown in those six games in the first 30 minutes of action. That was by some running back who has dropped off the face of the Earth since dashing for 60 yards against Oklahoma.

28 points.

One touchdown

7 field goals.

Five of the six opponents (Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, UCLA, Iowa State) rank in the bottom half of D-1 teams in scoring defense.

YPP sucks as a metric for performance. Why? Because you can rack up ungodly amounts of yards when your already out of the game in the 3rd quarter. Also if you turn the ball over in the red zone after a 80 yard drive who really gives a damn?

Points Per Game or more precisely point differential is what matters, that’s how they determine the winners and losers, and yes our offense sucks at that too.

The OU and OSU games, on the other hand, can be explained as "trash time" yardage accumulations. Against OSU, the Horns averaged 7.75 YPP in two long drives late in the game against a prevent defense; the offense averaged 4.06 YPP – nearly a full yard lower than OSU’s average YPP allowed – in all other drives. Similarly, Texas averaged 7.47 YPP after OU went up 28-7 in the 4th quarter; in the first three quarters, Texas averaged 5.23 YPP (0.6 yards below OU’s non-Texas season average).

Maybe their ypp is so high because they are blowing out OTHER teams so much that THOSE games are all trash time. Don’t feel so smart now, do ya?

Srr50:

That pretty much sums up the season. It used to be that we couldn’t score against good defenses. Now, we can’t score against the worst defenses in the NCAA.

You didn’t really ask the right question at the end, based on your “sadistics”. It’s not whether the offensive talent is better than those defenses. It’s whether the offensive talent is better than the other offenses that got more ypp against those defenses than we did.

Q: What did the sadist say to the masochist when the masochist asked to be whipped ?

A: "NO ! "

To expand on srr50s point, what was our YPP in the first half of those games which presumably is never garbage time for your opponent?

Since we average less than a field goal per quarter in the first half of our losses, I will assume the YPP is pretty bad too.

Add in some turnovers and nice field position from bad ST play. Stir it all around and you have a bowl of shit.

This team is very bad, but the offense in particular is an all-timer for UT.

We’re about to pad some stats this week. I see 35 points and 400 yards of offense. Everything will be back on track, no reason for changes. Then I see a lot of fight in the ATM game. We lose, but respectable like. Say 31-24. GD stays.

When heads start rolling it’s amazing how quickly under-performing players and coaches become competent. Change/fear/focus/accountability is good..

If you look at the star rating of the starting offensive and defensive units it comes out to about a 4 star rating. Before our defense gave up on the year, I think they played to that rating. Our offense, save for a player here and there hasn’t for two years now.

So how did the ranking gurus get it correct with regards to our defensive players but not our offensive guys? They had it right coming out of high school, it’ just that one side is hungry and progresses and develops, while the other side is complacent and regresses and under achieves.

Look at Kirkendoll film from high school. That guy looked like Ryan Broyles out there absolutely killing the middle of the field. He was a good take. Hell, he was better as a Sophomore than he is now.

Nordberg said it in regards to talent utilization.

OUR DEFENSE

5 of the 10 teams we’ve played have OFFENSES ranked in the BEST 30 offenses in the nation

Our defense ranks 7th out of 121 teams in ypg allowed.

The only defenses ranked higher than ours are: TCU, Ohio St, Boise St, LSU, Nebraska, W. Virginia

In 9 of our 10 games, our defense held our opponent’s offense to less than their season avg, to the tune of 1,066 yards below the opponents’ offensive avg

Our defense held #10 Baylor to 161 yards below avg, #12 OU to 111 yards below avg, #23 Nebraska to 236 yards below avg, and #29 Texas Tech to 283 yards below avg.

OUR OFFENSE

6 of the 10 teams we’ve played have DEFENSES ranked in the WORST 30 defenses in the nation

Our offense ranks 69th out of 121 teams in ypg

In 7 of our 10 games, our offense gained less yardage than our opponent’s defense averaged giving up, to the tune of 392 yards below the opponents’ defensive ypg allowed.

Our offense failed to exceed ypg to #118 Rice, #116 Texas Tech, #106 Wyoming, and #105 Kansas St

Our offense ranks below the offenses of North Carolina and Tulane, Mack’s previous stints.

Our defense ranks much higher than both North Carolina and Tulane.

"do you really, honestly believe that Texas has less talent on offense than Baylor, Rice, Iowa State, Kansas State, UCLA, etc. have on defense?"

Without a doubt, we are in a talentless black hole. I’d be glad to explain how something like that can happen, it is an interesting phenomenon. The post 2005 recruiting “success” has not withstood the Zen Master test of “we’ll see”. It’s been a bust all around. Throw in red shirts, injuries, transfers, and early NFL draft dodgers…..and bingo, we have hit the trough between two waves.

Dagga Roosta is on point with this one. btw—our super star running back recruit was Chris Whaley. He grew into a defensive end with no experience……epic BUST.

This is exactly why we have tight end issues. Thomas graduated, Finley left as soon as he developed to the NFL, and Irby blew out his knee…..what’s that leave? Finley kept away all the top recruits, and we were scholarship short because of all the Junior commits. Our tight end is on the way….hopefully he won’t bust.

Brickhorn: Thanks for making it simple. Hope you “CC’d” a copy to DeLoss and all booster club presidents.

If the guys who write the checks look deeper than “off year” and stop writing the checks, U-Haul stock will skyrocket, as will the volume of boxes in Bellmont.

We’re about to pad some stats this week.

You might. To the extent that UT plays better against good defenses, FAU has the 4th best defense it will have faced when messured by YPP allowed.

This made me wistful for the good ol’ days (just last year) when we were the ones giving up the two trash time scores every game (and bitchin’ about it) instead of being the ones on the receiving end of that particular brand of charity.

Now all the 42-10s (or was it 52-10s?) seem like eons ago and unlikely to return any time soon without an OCectomy.

No mystery there, as there is significantly less talent to hide the incompetence at the OC spot.

How many of these offensive starters do you project going to the league? I don’t know if any of them have NFL potential as a starter.

 Maybe M. Williams as a special teamer/wr on the depth chart.

Maybe a young lineman or two that may develop.

Maybe GG is draftable (at least dimensionally) if a good OC is brought in this off-season.

“Mr. February.” Isn’t that Mack’s nickname? Mack isn’t even an effective CEO of the Longhorns program anymore. He’s maybe the Market Director or top salesman. Or best cheerleader…whatever. But he’s lost this team as much as Wade Phillips did in Dallas.

Even his seemingly top-shelf recruiting capability has shown a loss of step. It’s the apparent arrogance of the recruiting process…this taking in kids that only beg to be recruited (and if they don’t, well, fuck ‘em, we don’t want or need ‘em anyway) that’s created a weakness in the foundation.

Settling for pretty good players instead of truely great. ones Giving kids like Chet Moss preferential recruiting treatment over better LB choices and settling for Miles Onyegbule over Trey Metoyer because they are Texas campers, wear burnt orange to bed, and really, really, pretty please want to play for Texas.

There’s something to be said for that, sure. You want kids who want to be here…see the story of Marcus Dupree as evidence. But if you’re going to take a Chris Whaley over Christine Michael, Miles Onyegbule over Trey Metoyer, and so on, you better have the coaching chops to turn those second-tier guys into pretty damn good ballers.

But Kennedy ain’t getting it done with ANY of the receivers. His best receiver is a true freshman, and he’s doing nothing to write home about. Captain Kirk…too little too late. Williams? Where’s the separation man…haven’t you learned any technique? Where’s Desean Hales?

Chambers is listed as coaching TEs…do we have any of those? Seriously? When was the last time one caught a pass? Well, there was the TD by Dominique Jones, but that was so flukey it can’t be taken serious.

McWhorter ain’t gettin’ it done on the o-line. Don’t know why that is. I’ve respected the job he’s done in the past, but, really, is Bret Mitchell a starter on any other good B12 team? And why did we only take two offensive linemen in the ‘10 class? Apparently we weren’t as stocked as some folks believed maybe?

And what about the jobs Giles and Tolleson have done? One great big reason for the collapse of the Longhorns this season is there’s one guy playing his ass off, out of position no less (Acho), one guy holding his own with an occasional flash of special (Randall), and no one else is showing up on game day. The rest of the line, minus Jeffcoat, has CRATERED! EPIC-LY. Holy crap when was the last time we got any pressure on a QB…Nuuuubraska, right? What kind of coaching job have they done with Eddie Jones? He was supposed to be the next Kindle or Rak. Hell man, it’s sacrilege to even mention his name in the same breath as those two.

To sum it up, maybe it isn’t the players that are displaying a sense of entitlement. Maybe it’s the coaches…maybe they’ve gotten lazy. Maybe they’ve gotten arrogant. Most of them among the highest paid at their positions in the country. They have to be held accountable for the condition of Texas Longhorns football and changes must be made.

srr50 -

Good point. Comparing the offense on points scored is more difficult – especially points on a quarter-by-quarter basis – as it requires a deep dive into individual box scores. “Scoring offense” is a mess of a statistic, as it includes non-offensive scores and has no way of accounting for field position. Basically, there’s no way to tease out what portion of the points is actually due to the offense unless you spend hours pouring over individual drive charts.

That said, our offense’s inability to score touchdowns in the first half is facially pathetic. A rigorous comparison is not needed. Everyone knows that a team that averages one first-half offensive touchdown per 6 games is desperately shitty.

roach -

See my above comments to srr50. Basically, “scoring offense” is too affected by the defense and special teams to be a useful measure of the offense’s capabilities.

YPP is the best readily-available metric to see whether the offense is doing its job. It’s not perfect. Personally, I’d prefer a chart of expected value (in terms of either points scored or % of needed yards gained) per drive based on starting field position. But I won’t generate that until I get some free time in the off-season. Until then, YPP is the best way to compare our offense to others’.

PatronSaint -

It could be that OSU and OU typically give up lots of trash-time yards. Feel free to research it and present your results for discussion.

Speed Kills -

It’s not whether the offensive talent is better than those defenses. It’s whether the offensive talent is better than the other offenses that got more ypp against those defenses than we did.

Good point. Either way, I think the answer is the same and it’s a resounding “no.” This offense has talent. Certainly more talent than our opponents’ average opponent. It’s just completely misused and underdeveloped.

T Man -

While I generally disdain YPG as a measure (Huck converted me to YPP), nice post. I plan to research the defense’s performance as well, and anticipate that we’ll see a gradual decline over the course of the season. The D has played extremely well at times and that’s certainly more than we can say about the O.

“srr50 said:
November 15th, 2010 at 2:19 pm

Here is the sadistical analysis that makes me sick.

In our six losses we have scored a grand total of 28 points in the combined first halves. We have exactly one touchdown in those six games in the first 30 minutes of action. That was by some running back who has dropped off the face of the Earth since dashing for 60 yards against Oklahoma."

Our talent is clearly inferior to most of the league.

No one loses the games we lost this year with superior talent. Especially not this group of coaches. History speaks loudly that this is true.

In the unlikely event that I am wrong, then better coaches will EASILY get this thing turned around by the end of the first game in 2011. But if the talent is truly not there…………

I want to remind ya’ll that with Mackovic’s left over talent, this coaching staff won every game they were supposed to win and lost every game they were not favored to win.

You know, if Texas truly became independent, then we could play all the Div II teams we wanted.

YAC that up.

Gman- I’m with you. Great breakdown of our staffs responsibilities or lack there of. I want to know who actually thought Brock Fitzgenry was a take? He must be from Austin with exemplary class attendance. I bet his credit at the local community library is unmatched!

I want to remind ya’ll that with Mackovic’s left over talent, this coaching staff won every game they were supposed to win and lost every game they were not favored to win.

Jesus Christ. Bill – Stop posting here. Seriously.

Recruiting is not the issue. Every program has had misses and attrition – certainly there were some, but no more than most other programs. And definitely not 4-6 bad. This is a player development and offense design issue. One need look no further than our receivers, Michael Huey (a beast coming into the program), Garrett Gilbert to find examples of college-level athletes not reaching their potential. It’s complacency.

You could see it creeping in our offense last year. Now, minus Colt, Shipley and defensive playmakers, we’ve been exposed further. The last 25 games show a OC that gets outcoached 20 out of 25 times. Remember Colt’s hangnail & flu, Jordan Shipley’s superior talent, special teams play and a great defense hid a lot of those deficiencies.

In business, volume covers up many ill practices, and even poor employees. In football, talent and play makers do the same. Remove the play makers and what you have is the raw heart of the football team. We saw these same flaws in the offense last year, but McCoy to Shipley is just that good.

On Defense this year, we lost the talent of no less than 5 serious disruptenators. They have been replaced with either their lesser counterparts, or the younger hopefuls that need development time. Look at the 2006 recruit line up for play makers. All the serious guys from then are gone.

This gap can be blamed on the coaches if you want, but it’s doubtful that they should have changed any of their decisions. If Mack Brown had passed on Whaley, or the parade of busts from 2007-2008, he’d received more shit than he is now.

Looking ahead, we are reloading, but for 2010, we filled the chambers with blanks, and it’s exposed our offensive coordinator, and the vaunted DC with his super mega inflated salary.

Will Muschamp is currently allowing 29.3 points per game since UCLA, and Greg Davis can’t keep up with it at 17.8 average points since then. Equally pathetic both directions.

Same coaches as the last two seasons, same systems……the difference…..no play makers, no clear leaders, no talent to match the recruiting potentials…….yet. As I look to 2011, I see fewer flaws, as I look to 2012, dominance should return.

I’ll be surprised if Davis survives this winter though, the beast requires a meal, and the fans hate this guy no matter what he does.

Brick:

Typically I would agree with you, my fear is that Mack will use the YPP stat to justify keeping Greg Davis around even when it is obvious that the stat has no meaning when you go 3 and out or turnovers for the entire first half of a game, and then rack up yards in the second when the game is effectively over.

Srrr50’s stat that we have only scored 28 first half points in 6 games is as damning as anything I have seen this year. (That can’t possibly be right can it?)

I really like your idea of expected value. That might correlate with winning and losing better than YPP.

This year makes our 2009 Big12 Championship game look like an offensive explosion.

I think the lack of talent argument rings pretty hollow. The most damning argument you can make in that regard is that the sum is far less than the parts. We bring in a lot of talented players, but since we don’t recruit to a system, these guys don’t necessarily form a cohesive unit (i.e. recruiting Chiles one year at QB and then Gilbert the other).

Almost all of these kids had offers from other top programs, so I find it unlikely that we just happen to end up picking the kids that everyone missed on.

Brick:

 I understand your points about "Scoring offense" being a mess of a statistic, however….Once is a Happenstance, Twice is a Coincidence, Three Times is a Pattern.

Six times against mainly mediocre defenses is a fucking avalanche of data.

You can’t average 3 points per quarter (64 total) over the first three quarters of the past SEVEN games and expect to win football games. Our production/points have come after the momentum is lost, the game is decided and Mack is looking for excuses.

Yes, I really, honestly do. The talent evaluation over the last 2 or 3 years has been a complete disaster at virtually every offensive position, and definitely at the ones that matter most. Heads must roll for this debacle.

I was ready to argue with you about talent versus development and scheme…and then I remembered we still came to the same conclusion: we need staffing changes.

To-may-toe, to-mah-toe.

Wish Bill Bixbly would be the Hulk

Ahem.

Offensive coordinator Greg Davis was asked if he feels like he’s coaching for his job right now.

“I’ve never felt that way,” Davis said. “I coach for the love of the game. When my alarm went off this morning I jumped out of bed excited to go to work.”

http://collegesportsblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/11/longhorns-dont-feel-pressured-to-win-las.html

We’s got the talent. But these days the colege football game is ALL bout the QB. If he’s good then the whole team play good. Luck, Newton, griffin 3, Boise QB, Frog Andy, duck
QB etc forever, and now the newaggie QB. They’d good, so their team is good. So the key is to recruit 6 QB’s a year and find one that is good. Thus it could be just as simple as replacing GG. Aggy will tell yo it was for them as well……but if it was that simple, we wouldn’t need a football board run by intellectuals and nerds… Shee Shee Shee.

When my alarm went off this morning I jumped out of bed excited to go to work.

Translation: I love being paid $450,000 a year to do nothing.

“do you really, honestly believe that Texas has less talent on offense than Baylor, Rice, Iowa State, Kansas State, UCLA, etc. have on defense?”

NO. With a caveat.
We are getting far less out of the talent we have than other teams are. Other teams actually make their players better over time. We make ours worse, at least on offense.
Do we have less talent than we have had in the past? Obviously so. In the past we have had such transcendent talent that talent alone could carry Texas to 10 win seasons. No longer. It is blindingly obvious that this coaching staff cannot achieve ANYTHING on offense with less than godly talent.

Consider: Kansas St is having a winning season and will likely go to a bowl against a schedule no weaker than ours. No way their defense has more talent than we do on offense. They just do a damn good job with the talent they have. Our talent on defense is lightyears better overall (though we have some weaknesses that cannot be masked because of our horrid offense and special teams play) than their offensive talent.
We piss away resources faster than the government. Underutilization, poor utilization, mindlessly insisting on schemes and procedures which are proven failures over and over again—I don’t know. I think the government could actually run our offense BETTER than our coaches are.

I’m almost certain our players could do it better if they made it up as they went along like in a flag football game. At least, they would have more fun that way.

As you say, Brickhorn, coaching matters. And our offensive and special teams coaches are absolutely shitting the bed. Our head coach is being the old prickly, defensive, paranoid Mack, and what Greg Davis has done would get you shot by a firing squad in wartime.

Let’s be honest, Brickhorn – the Nebraska game was pretty much the ONLY game for which our offensive staff even bothered to design a game plan. Every other week it has been script the first 15 plays and abandon the running game from there.

Hook ’em!!!

Lurking,

I just cannot see how any team (with any coaches you care to name) can expect to win 10 or more games on a regular basis with anything less than “transcendent talent”.

Will KSU win 10 or more games this year or next?

What am I missing?

PS: Please do not bring up TCU or Boysee in this context. No way they win regular 10+ if they were in the Big 12 or SEC.

srr50 -

I agree completely, which is what I meant when I said that our offense’s inability to score is “facially pathetic.” PPG is usually a weak metric of the offense alone, but not in this case. The O just isn’t scoring points, especially when the game is in doubt.

roach -

Typically I would agree with you, my fear is that Mack will use the YPP stat to justify keeping Greg Davis around even when it is obvious that the stat has no meaning when you go 3 and out or turnovers for the entire first half of a game, and then rack up yards in the second when the game is effectively over.

I don’t understand. The offense is pretty fucking bad on YPP numbers. The Horns rank #86 in the country in YPP. If you adjust for quality of opponent, it’s even worse than that.

I suppose Mack could use the YPP measure by throwing it out there, sans context. But everyone who reads this blog should know better. The offense is bad on YPP. It’s bad on YPG. It’s bad on scoring measures. To paraphrase Fritz Zwicky, this offense is spherically putrid – it’s putrid no matter how you look at it.

Eyes -

Let’s be honest, Brickhorn – the Nebraska game was pretty much the ONLY game for which our offensive staff even bothered to design a game plan.

Yep. And look at the result – the Horns won! And the offense generated exactly average YPP production against Nebraska.

The NU game is an example of what Scipio thought this team would be. He called it an “SEC team.” In other words, great defense coupled with average, but sound, offense. It turns out that the team was cut from the SEC mold for exactly one game this season, maybe two if you count Tech.

No one is demanding 10 wins a season in perpetuity. 10 wins is Mack Brown/Bill Little propaganda to excuse not winning conference titles. I think most fans can accept the occasional eight or nine win season (not too difficult out of 13 games) in exchange for more competetive highs. What can’t be accepted, and hopefully cannot be forgiven, is a 4-8/6-6 collapse that puts us in the bottom 4 out of the last 74 NC runner ups.

“The Nebraska game was pretty much the ONLY game for which our offensive staff even bothered to design a game plan.”

This has been basically true for at last the past couple years. GD is good for one or two really good game plans per year.

2007 – Finley over the middle against OU. Besides that, he had no clue until they started feeding Charles in the 4th Qtr against Nebraska. After that it was the Jamaal Charles show. No game plan required.

2008 – Shipley flexed out and abused the LB and safeties over the middle against OU. Other than that it was the Colt, Shipley, and Quan show. No game plan required.

2009 – I can’t think of a great game plan last year. Just Colt and Shipley abusing bad defenses, getting stoned against good ones. You can argue about Alabama but we’ll never know.

2010 – Nebraska. We are lucky they couldn’t catch or 4 for 16 wouldn’t look so good.

Benjy / Lurking,

I am not demanding 10 wins. I want to count trophies other than bowl games just like you say. I want GD gone just like everyone else.

I am worried about recruiting and retention/development. I cannot imagine a top tier program remaining top tier without “transcendent talent” regardless of who coaches.

If the bloggers are saying that lack of talent is no excuse and GD needs to go, then I can buy that as an aurgument even if it is pretty weak. For me, GD needs TO BE GONE because he has become a distraction and a lightening rod for all the hate and discontent rightfully rampant in the media and the fan base.

I cannot imagine a top tier program remaining top tier without "transcendent talent" regardless of who coaches.

The term “transcendental talent” has become watered down to the point of meaninglessness. Transcendental implies once-in-a-decade type talent at a position of singular importance. Vince Young and Ricky Williams fit the mold. I can think of no other example at Texas other than Earl Campbell and, maybe, Bobby Layne. Nobis was perhaps the greatest linebacker of his generation, but no linebacker is going to almost single-handedly win games for you.

Almost by definition, transcendental talent is rare. Teams win national championships all the time without it. Bama last season is just one example.

Texas under Mack Brown has been excellent without transcendent talent. But in those circumstances, the Horns had a stockpile of excellent, NFL-caliber talent across the board. And we still managed to lose a game or two.

As I see it, the difference between Mack-Davis and other successful coaching staffs is that the former is unable to win a national championship or regular conference championships without transcendent talent on offense. Mack-Davis needs Vince Young. Merely a shitload of NFL talent isn’t enough.

Let me see if I follow this.
Transcendent talent is beyond superior talent – as in better players than everyone else in the league.
Mack-Davis staff need transcendent talent to go undefeated and win MNC.
Mack-Davis can win 10 games with superior talent.
Mack-Davis cannot win 10 games with less than superior talent.

Please get rid of Davis, but I am pretty confident that you can substitute any names in the above three sentences and get the same results. Talent counts just as much as game day coaching. Over the 48 years I have watched, the ou team with better talent almost always beat Texas and vise versa.

Hence, if recruiting, retention and development does not improve neither will the results on the field regardless of coaching staff.

ps: Bama had a Heisman Trophy winner which I consider transcendent talent