Some Quick Thoughts On North Carolina vs. Texas
Scipio and Peter Bean have a solid preview on the ball game here, but I see things a tad bit differently. Perhaps I'm a homer. Ha!
Anyway, regardless, I wanted to post some quick thoughts on the Carolina vs. Texas tilt tomorrow afternoon because a) I had some quick thoughts and b) I felt guilty for lack of contribution.
I’ve watched a good bit of ACC hoops this season and obviously every Texas game so I think I have a pretty good handle on this one. First and foremost, I’d like everyone to get the USC game out of their heads. That performance was an anomaly for both squads. Texas didn’t come to play in the first 10 minutes and USC was out of their mind from the field which helped bury the Horns early. The Horns looked flat and the Eastern European big for USC channeled his inner Drazen Petrovic. Change either one of those circumstances and that’s a different game.
The good news we can take from that loss comes in the form of tempo. When Texas pressured and looked to run, they closed the gap which will prove to be instructive for tomorrow’s match. UNC has to play that type of tempo to have any kind of success offensively against relatively athletic teams. The Tar Heels’ guard play is abject dog shit so they're at the mercy of how fast the opposing guards want to play, plus playing a faster tempo is ingrained in Roy Williams DNA—he of the famous secondary break. It’s a tempo that Texas fans should welcome because it allows the Horns to keep their best defensive lineup on the floor without giving up too much on the offensive end.
I’m guessing we’ll play at the same pace Illinois invited us to play at--if only Bruce Weber had a do-over says Illini fan. That pace will allow us to play big minutes with Balbay, Joseph, Hamilton, Thompson, and Wang/Hill without fear of offensive stagnation...think 90 feet of open floor pandamonium. Hell, if Rick gets a wild hair watching things get really frenetic, don’t be surprised to see him roll the dice with Johnson at the four and Thompson at the five. Carolina doesn’t have the identity, patience, guard play, or leadership to take advantage of this Texas lineup in a fast paced game meaning we may be able to get away with Joseph, Brown/Balbay, Hamilton, Johnson, and Thompson for stretches.
I'm betting on the come that UNC won’t be able to help themselves on the pace front mainly because they're outgunned in the backcourt and generally batshit crazy when challenged by athletes who aren't fresh off the AAU circuit like UK.
As far as the pitfalls for Texas, if they get dragged into a halfcourt to halfcourt bare-knuckle deal it will get interesting. But again, I’ve watched Carolina and when it comes to running, they’re like a lab waiting to play fetch. Texas just has to throw them a bone by pressuring and running a little, which is something Coach Barnes has been trying to do with the lads for the last two weeks.
My prediction is centered on the following. Texas has better guards, so we should be able to control pace and keep Zeller and Henson under control which heaps a ton of pressure upon true freshman Harrison Barnes. Barnes has shown that he struggles to handle the pressure of being the bell-cow, so that’s right where we want him. Strickland and Drew are horrid, and the better guard tandem Bullock and Marshall don’t get many minutes for whatever reason.
And for those reasons I like the Horns 82 to 76 Horns.
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I worry about UNC’s length inside … quite frankly it’s preposterous. Henson has a 7’4 wingspan and Zeller is a true seven footer … Gary Johnson I’m really not sure what he’s going to be able to do tomorrow.
At any point will UNC bench Larry Drew? This is reaching Justin Mason levels of idiocy over there.
Really really cool match-ups for our best two players: Jordan Hamilton / Harrison Barnes … two 6’7+ shooters with good handles but not incredible lateral quickness.
Tristan Thompson / John Henson — the biggest question about Thompson going forward on the next level is his ability to handle elite length from a forward. Henson is like the perfect test case … he looks like a 6’4 dude who just copy and pasted a few times into a 6’10 body. Will Thomspon be able to use his strength to attack Henson’s core and create separation? Will he able to shoot over the top of Henson and Zeller? Can he dominate the backboards against them?
If Thompson blows up tomorrow, we’re taking millions upon millions of dollars he’s making.
Playing UNC in basketball is a lot like playing us in football, even when it’s a mess, it’s a very talented blue-chip ridden mess. This should be a lot of fun.
by tjarks on Dec 18, 2010 1:52 AM CST reply actions
The defeat of UNC last season was the zenith. I do not think that we will repeat that scenario this season. Unfortunately, I have to look at baby pictures and finish up Christmas shopping, so I’ll be using my BetaMax to tape the game and will be watching in delay…enjoy the live thread!
by uthookem on Dec 18, 2010 8:14 AM CST reply actions
I am reading that Henson has a bad thumb. What that means in terms of playing time, I have no idea. But for being well into his second season, he still seems unsure of himself on the floor. He shoots 34 percent from the line.
I agree with tjarks that it looks bad for Johnson today… but UNC had the edge on the front line last year and got killed on the boards. If effort matters, you know that Johnson will do something. Plus, he now hits the midrange consistently. One of these days they’ll come out on him and he’ll fake it and drive.
I do agree with Trips in that RW can’t help himself. He learned under Smith and they both think like Wooden… we’ll do what we do and that is it. That’s why they got hammered last year.
I still think the home court will matter today, but it’s interesting to look at this squad versus the last couple of championship teams that RW had… he doesn’t have the talent of those squads, or hasn’t developed it. It’s something along the lines of how we look at the UT front court, where Hill/Wangmene/Chapman haven’t progressed much at all, but they have to play.
The closer we get to tipoff, the more optimistic I get. Of course, I really think they need a split in these next two games, and this one sure looks better to me in that regard.
by Bob in Houston on Dec 18, 2010 9:13 AM CST reply actions
My biggest concern……can we play uptempo if we are getting pounded on the boards?
by lowdenswain on Dec 18, 2010 9:14 AM CST reply actions
Very tempting line at -3 for UNC … basically a home game for them and our front-line is way to small … Zeller will do work on whatever non-Tristan Thompson big man we put on him.
by tjarks on Dec 18, 2010 10:19 AM CST reply actions
tjarks, the line tells me Vegas thinks Texas is a better team on a neutral floor. Throw in the fact they’re probably getting a ton of money on UNC because the Heels are a public team. I’d tread lightly.
by Trips Right on Dec 18, 2010 10:37 AM CST reply actions
lowden, good point. That’s why Balbay’s key this game. I think he can create tempo by turning over Drew and Strickland.
torre, thanks man. I appreciate that.
by Trips Right on Dec 18, 2010 10:43 AM CST reply actions
Texas killed NC on the boards last season, 56-36. James and Dex each had 15 rebounds. It is not likely that UT will dominate NC on the boards today. James scored 25 points, Dex had 23, Bradley had 20, and Brown had 21. Johnson will have a tough time today defending, scoring inside, and rebounding. It will be interesting to see how well Hill and Wangmene defend and bound.
My guess is NC wins by about 5 to 10 points in a high scoring game (last season there were nearly 200 total points scored by the two teams).
by Kafka on Dec 18, 2010 10:45 AM CST reply actions
Have not seen enough of Kendall Marshall to get a good feel for his game. Could he take over Larry Drew? I have to imagine a McDonald’s All-American should be able to step in a run an offense just stocked with NBA players.
by tjarks on Dec 18, 2010 10:52 AM CST reply actions
The Texas bigs got manhandled by the finesse of Vucevic and brute force of Alex Stepheson. The good news is that the UNC bigs are about half the weight of both those guys. The bad news is that they’re also about 4 inches taller.
Conversely, Barnes will need to figure out his guard hydra before Roy does. Balbay should be able to give Drew defensive nightmares, and Brown and CoJo shouldn’t be scared of the NC guards at all. I still have no idea what happened to the Jai Lucas that was good at Florida.
I’ll be most excited to see the Hamilton-Barnes tilt. My guess is whoever wins that battle will give his team the W.
by jc25 on Dec 18, 2010 12:43 PM CST reply actions
Speaking of USC – just barely lost at KU today, by 2. Had the lead in the final minute before Josh Selby broke their hearts. They may be quite legit.
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