Texas vs. Kansas Hoops Preview: Picking Your Poison

Nicely done, Trips. TT’s foul count is key #1, agreed.

I also think our odds of winning are inversely proportionate to # of minutes DB gets. JCB likes to play KU, if I recall.

Dear Doge — Not sure if this is forbidden in Turkey, but here one is allowed to jump-stop at the FT line in transition if there’s nothing there… Stay under control, my friend.

Abe

Way to take both sides, dude.

I personally lean toward the beatdown. But the cool thing about that is that I will be able to watch the game somewhat dispassionately, in that I won’t be disappointed if it happens.

I agree that Texas seems a lot better equipped to play this game than it was six weeks ago. If Texas brings its A game, as it has on the last couple of visits to AFH, KU will have to bring at least a B, probably a B-plus. But I also think that, unlike the other close home games they have played this year, KU will be focused. They’ll have had at least two more good days of prep than Texas, and I’m sure it’s been mumbled at some point that if they lose, there’s a pretty good chance of them not winning the B12.

That’s really Abe Lemons, by the way.

Great breakdown, as always. I’m a KU grad who looks forward to the UT matchup every year. The KU/UT hoops rivalry has been fun over the last decade or so, with some of the most competitive games I’ve seen in the league during that period.

UT definitely has the horses this year to break the streak, particularly with KU’s recent habit of posting lackluster performances at home.

A couple of observations:

Morningstar hasn’t been a “plus shooter” of late. He’s been abysmal this year from 3 (23%), and while he hasn’t had many turnovers, those he has committed have have come in key situations. So, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Releford get more minutes than Morningstar in this game, assuming he’s healthy. Releford has quietly turned into our most consistent perimeter defender. He’s shooting 46% from beyond the arc, and at 6’6", 207 lbs., he’s so athletic that he may provide a better answer for Hamilton, who for anyone else is a complete mismatch.

That being said, Self said yesterday that Releford was only 75%, and that he “would be available” on Saturday.

Self seems to love Morningstar because he’s our best post passer. He makes the high-low hum. If anyone else could drop dimes to the Morri the way he does, his minutes would drop in a heartbeat.

Should be a great game. Rock chalk.

Excellent write-up as always, Trips.

Key #1 will be keeping Thompson out of foul trouble. KU’s frontcourt is much more UConn, much less UNC. And calling them close to UConn is an insult; the front 3 of Robinson + The Morri will likely be the best frontcourt Texas sees all year. Also, forcing Barnes to go with Wang and/or Hill means no Balbay, which means no cover for Selby.

Key #2 is how on-fire Jordan Hamilton is. Self doesn’t have the true wing but he does have a variety of options. He’ll probably start with Releford, but if that doesn’t work he may go small with Reed or Morningstar. They’ll be quick enough to stay step to step with Jordan on his cuts, so if Jordan’s shot is off, Texas is in trouble. Texas did something similar by sticking Cory Joseph on Khris Middleton in the 2nd half. Self, if he so fancies, can also run out the three-big lineup and buy some minutes with Marcus on JH. Tell Marcus to body up and make Hamilton dribble that ball. I daresay Hamilton is the best player on the court in this matchup; that wasn’t the case with UConn and Kemba Walker.

Key #3 is buying minutes with the rest of the frontcourt. Gary Johnson has to be stout today. Marcus can float to the perimeter so those 12-14’ jumpers that GJ likes may not always be there. GJ and Wangmene need to forget about the height disadvantage and leverage position. See Chuck Hayes.

The X-factor in this game is J’Covan. If J’Covan is j’on the ball, I think it forces Self to cover him with Reed or Morningstar, and also removes either Taylor or Selby from the equation. That should also free up Hamilton to work on Releford.

By the way, here’s a great defensive boxscore recap of Kansas vs. Baylor.

http://audacityofhoops.blogspot.com/2011/01/project-defensive-score-sheet_18.html

Oh, prediction sure to go wrong: 80-72, KU.

Nicely done, Trips.

You mention Thompson guarding Marcus. What makes you say that? I like his quickness, but it seems like he’d be even more prone to foul /tire chasing him than he would going against Markieff. And though I don’t think Gary Johnson can guard either, I’d say he’s more suited to handle Marcus’ perimeter game than Markieff on the block – where he’d get eaten alive.

In short, Thompson is more suited to cover both of them than GJ, but isn’t Johnson more suited to cover Marcus?

Looking forward to another great one in this series. Rock Chalk.

Nice preview. The “pick your poison” problem of only having one well-rounded big is what’s eventually going to bring this team down in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas, K-State and Baylor all have at least two bigs to worry about, and Gary Johnson/Matt Hill aren’t going to get it done. I’d like to see Wangmene at the 5 and Thompson at the 4 — though a lot of that would probably depend on TT’s ability to knock down mid-range jumpers.

Nice job, Trips. I don’t think Self will let his pride win out. I think he knows this KU team can run with anyone, but it doesn’t have to. He seems more than willing to make this a half court game if he needs to. Especially if Kansas has a few bad turnovers or bad shots. He’ll slow it down to punish the KU players as much as anything.

Looking forward to it. And the best news of all is, I just secured my ticket.

Being an uptight, glass is half empty Texas fan, I love this game. No way we beat Kansas in AFH.

No way.

Have to agree with Hiphop, GJ should be guarding Marcus, not Markieff. If TT gets in early foul trouble, this game could get ugly. This game is always one I look forward to, as I was a freshman at KU in 1985-6 (Danny Manning holla!), spent way too much time partying and flunked out, joined the Army for four years (Ft. Hood), settled at UT and didn’t flunk out. In short, love both of these programs. I’m so proud of the Horns this year, and hope that if TT sticks around next year, we have a serious shot at the Final Four. Having said that, I believe KU is too deep this year, and AFH atmosphere (an AWESOME place to watch a game!) are too much for a young, extremely talented Texas to handle. For us to win, TT will have to stay out of foul trouble, JH will have to bring his ‘A’ game for 40 minutes, and we will have to convert free throws like we did against the Aggies.
Hook ’Em!!

Durant was in Jordan mode for the first half in Lawrence and we still couldn’t take down the Jayhawks. Teams with length that only Jay Bilas dreams about generally give us problems (UConn this year, Baylor last year) and Thompson isn’t strong enough to bang with the Morris twins all game.

Unless we get a heroic performance from the HillWanger or J’Covan drops another 20, I’m expecting a 72-64ish type win for KU.

And I’m not one for hyperbole, but if we win this game, we don’t lose another one in 2011.

Number 1 priority is keeping Tristan out of foul trouble. Great point about the idiocy of hedging fouls.

I like the idea of Jordan having to block out a bigger player on the defensive boards, it would build character. Jordan weighs more than 220 pounds so he is big enough to block out the 237 pound Robinson if he puts his back into it. Thus far Jordan has not been very good at blocking out but it hasn’t mattered much because he is usually guarded by a small guy.

Kansas will most likely win the game since they have the better team, better coaching, and are playing at home. The big thing for the horns is to play within themselves and force KU to beat the horns and not throw away the game due to being too anxious or making too many mistakes. The horns are the definite underdog and should go into the game j’relaxed.

opening line is 7 1/2.

Thanks for the comments guys.

Hiphop et al, yeah, I wish we didn’t have to play TT on Marcus but what are you going to do? You can’t put GJ on him without sending quick doubles to Marcus on the catch. TT has a fighting chance to guard MM head up so I’d roll the dice here if I’m Barnes. Now when Hill or Wangmene are in, absolutely, you put one of these two on KU’s best post and let TT patrol the backside. Hoops 101 right there. But with Texas preferred frontcourt in the game, you can’t afford to have GJ guarding KU’s best post. One entry pass and all hell breaks loose.

Excellent write-up. Even if Self’s pride doesn’t win out, there’s a practical limit to how much he can really play “big”. Morris, Morris, and Robinson are really the only credible big guys on the roster. When you get to the 4th guy, it’s Jeff Withey, which is a little like Brian Boddicker if you took away his jumper, most of his coordination, and 50 lbs of bench press. Mario Little could play the 3 some to add size, but he’s not a particularly good matchup on Hamilton, either. On paper, the best guy to throw at him is Travis Releford, but he’s been hurt…it’ll be his first game in a couple weeks if he plays.

I’d wager pretty good money that Reed and Morningstar draw Hamilton most of the day, putting a large premium on denying him the ball as much as possible. Clearly, we’ll have Balbay’s man planted in the lane to help on TT, and we’ll go right at him on the other end with whichever twin he’s guarding to try to entice foul trouble. I feel like if those guys are limited decently, it’ll be tough for Texas to win, but Hamilton has a chance to really go off, I think. UCLA’s Tyler Honeycutt is probably the closest comparison we’ve seen and he put up 33 points in AFH on 15 shots. That was pre-Selby, but he wouldn’t have guarded that position, anyway.

Should be a hell of a game, I think.

I like Gary guarding Marcus Morris. Gary is at least as quick so he should take away the outside shot of Marcus. Marcus weighs 245 and Gary 238 (with a lower center of gravity) so there should not be a problem with Gary blocking out Marcus. The horns will defend well but KU will make plays to score. KU will have to make plays, though. The pressure is on favored KU to win this game. It would not be surprising if they come in a bit tight.

I doubt Self mostly goes with a third big but will instead go with a small forward or big guard who is hard to defend. Everybody lately is attacking Jordan on defense and Self will likely continue the trend. Letting Jordan guard a 6’9" guy without an outside shot who is third in line (behind 2 super stars) WRT low block touches would be pretty sweet for Jordan.

Jordan scored 27 on 14 shots vs the aggies. I suggest he get at least 25 shots vs KU. He’ll get good looks if our quick bigs set the screens.

One thing that Knight did not get is that the horns are trying to force teams to drive because Tristan is such an amazing shot blocker. KU will certainly try to punish Gary on the low block but as long as Gary maintains position, Morris will be forced to shoot a short shot rather than dunk. Anytime the ball is in the air around the bucket, there is a good chance that Tristan will block it. Whichever Morris Gary is guarding will have an advantage in the low block but the advantage will be much less than might be due to the shot blocking of Tristan.

“Clearly, we’ll have Balbay’s man planted in the lane to help on TT”

Doubt it because then Balbay can just set a pick for Jordan to get a wide open look at a 3. That is definitely not something that Self will encourage.

BTW, Balbay is shooting about 55% on his field goal attempts this year (just to put things in perspective). He can’t hit a jumper but he can drive and dish or finish in the paint.

“But with Texas preferred frontcourt in the game, you can’t afford to have GJ guarding KU’s best post. One entry pass and all hell breaks loose.”

Not necessarily. Besides the weak side shot blocking of Tristan, Barnes could choose to have Gary front Marcus. Now KU has to lob the ball over Gary to get the ball to Marcus with Tristan lurking on the weakside just waiting to pounce on the lob pass (much easier to deal with than a shot because there are no goal tending constraints). We should also mention the UT guards are going to be pressuring the entry passer so it won’t be trivial for KU to make the entry pass, especially when you consider that Gary, Tristan, and Wangmene are all quicker than the Morris boys and will be deflecting some of those entry passes.

Barnes is great at teaching weakside post help and Tristan is an apt pupil with amazing athleticism. I’d also rather that KU attack Gary than Tristan or Jordan.

If you have Balbay setting ball screens, I’ll give Barnes credit for a nice wrinkle. I have my doubts, though.

Guys that shoot nothing but layups tend to have misleading shooting percentages. Balbay is the poster boy for that. I’ll take him shooting it anywhere outside 6 feet over just about any other weapon Texas has.

“If KU goes big, I’d bring in Hill for Joseph and have Hamilton play the two alongside Brown.”

Interesting. Barnes went to exactly this line-up in the first half against A&M and I wondered what the hell he was doing. Foreshadowing?

Jones, maybe. What we lose in size at the 4 can be made up in Hamilton’s size advantage at the two. The problem is, we’d be resolved to play a tempo we’re not comfortable with.

This A&M KSU game makes me want to gouge my eyes out.