Texas vs. Missouri Hoops Preview

by Barking Carnival Staff on Jan 28, 2011 4:04 PM CST in Texas Longhorns and Other Basketball

After Wednesday night's win vs. Oklahoma State I'm starting to question my prognostication skills when it comes to this Longhorn squad. And actually, that's a good thing. If you would have told me that Dogus Balbay would be an MVP of the OSU game while J'Covan Brown was relegated to the pine after a virtuoso performance against Kansas, I would have laughed at you.

That's what has made this season so fun as opposed to last season—this team can't be pigeon-holed. The hallmark of a great team is finding different ways to win and Texas is doing just that. From stifling defense to a diversified offense, the Horns are a virtual Rubik's Cube if you're trying to scout them. So how are we going to beat the Missouri Tigers? Who will be the MVP this game? Well I've got some ideas on that so let's see how wrong I am this time. First, let's start with the Tiger personnel.

Backcourt

Mizzou has guards. In fact they have a fuck-load of them. With all of the full court pressure Mike Anderson implements you have to have a quiver full of lightning quick defenders who can get up and down the floor without fear of fatigue. Dr. Tom Davis had Brad Lohaus which is the equivalent of a fuck-load of guards.

But for Mizzou, in the backcourt it all starts with Marcus Denmon. The 6-3 junior is shooting a ridiculous 49% from deep but he's still more than capable of putting the ball on the deck and getting into the lane to create havoc. The one saving grace for Texas is that Denmon hasn't shot nearly as well on the road from deep going 4-14 in his last four road games. But still, Cory Joseph must tag Denmon around the arc and get to the Tiger guard's jumper or it could be a long night. Don't be surprised to see Balbay draw Denmon for stretches.

Michael Dixon and freshman Phil Pressey are the two Mizzou distributors. Dixon is a credible shooter but he makes his hay with penetration and dimes. Pressey is a streaky freshman point guard who had a coming out party against the Aggies. He's sneaky quick, but more importantly he's a deadly accurate shooter if he gets going. He's got an NBA scoring-mentality pedigree, so you can't let him get hot. I'd sit on his shooting hand and take my chances with him off the dribble, because at 5-10 he's a below average finisher and he's susceptible to the turnover averaging 2 TO's a contest in 20 minutes of action.

Due to their size, both Dixon and Pressey are prime targets for our newfound guard post-up game. So don't be surprised to see Texas focus on punishing these two on the blocks if the matchup is right or if they get caught in a switch as Mizzou is prone to do.

Matt Pressey is another guard, and he's coming in to defend on one end and slash on the other. You can play the elder Pressey with substantial cushion since he's not much of a shooter.

Frontcourt

The only thing resembling a true small forward on this squad is Kim English who goes about 6-6. Unfortunately for Mizzou he's a shooting specialist who does little else. I expect Jordan Hamilton to go right at English all game long. More on that in a moment.

Mike Anderson always seems to have a couple of athletic face up forwards to make matchups miserable for opposing teams and this season is no different. Unlike most seasons, however, the Tigers have some beef on the blocks in Ricardo Ratliffe who goes 6-8 240. He'll be a tough matchup for both Gary Johnson or Tristan Thompson so I expect we'll see significant minutes for Alexis Wangmene and Matt Hill. Wangmene should give Ratliffe fits with his combo of size and strength.

The Wangmene vs. Ratliffe matchup is key because Ratliffe has killed teams on the offensive glass and with Mizzou focused on spreading you out, Ratliffe has found lots of room to operate on the weakside glass. Alexis and company have to play sound positional defense for this reason. Ratliffe also shoots a mediocre 57% from the foul line so keep an eye on that.

The other Mizzou posts worth noting are Laurence Bowers and Justin Safford. Bowers is a slippery 6-8 athlete than can slash and board. He's actually the perfect cover for Gary Johnson because Johnson has the quickness/strength combo to limit what Bowers wants to do.

Safford is more of a big body on defense for the Tigers. He'll help rebound and defend but he's not much of threat as a back to the basket guy. If you're thinking that's the perfect cover for Tristan Thompson, you get a tote bag.

Keys To the Game

Tempo When you face a press and run team like the Tigers, controlling tempo and staying in your comfort zone is everything. If you play too fast you're going to turn the ball over and give up easy buckets. Play too methodical and cautious to avoid the turnover, then you're giving the Tigers a free attempt at forcing a bad play because you're not punishing them with buckets on the back end. It's a decision making dance that Texas players 1 through 4 have to be prepared to play.

In a nut shell, Texas' goal here is to break the press at a comfortable pace, identify if there are the correct numbers in transition, and then decide to attack the bucket or pull out and run offense.

Jordan Hamilton. He's likely your key in both phases of the offensive game—transition or halfcourt offense. In transition I suspect Jordan's going to find himself with the ball in his hands in a lot of 2 on 1 situations after the press is broken. His decision making here as well as his floor game is going to be key.

In a halfcourt setting, Jordan should absolutely abuse whoever Mizzou puts in front of him. The Aggies Khris Middleton, a similarly skilled 3 lit the Tigers up because English was too slow to stay in front or tag Middleton on the arc, and every third guard Mizzou rolled out was too small to keep Middleton out of the paint. Sound familiar? It's in the cards for Hamilton to be the MVP of this game, I just hope he's ready.

Matching Up With Mizzou's Bigs. With the way the Horns have defended on the perimeter the Tigers are going to need some production out of Bowers and Ratliffe to have a chance in this game so it's very important Rick pushes the right substitution buttons in the frontcourt.

Barnes can steal minutes with Wangmene on Ratliffe in a strength vs. strength battle to allow Tristan Thompson to roam the lane guarding a lesser offensive player, and Gary Johnson is perfectly capable of creating matchup issues for Bowers on both ends of the floor. I don't think Bowers can keep Gary out of the lane, and I think Gary is perfectly capable of checking Bowers on the Mizzou end.

Look for Thompson to have free reign over the paint when either Ratliffe or Bowers hit the pine because he doesn't have to worry about credible scorers when one of those two is out of the game. It's important that Barnes keep Tristan out of harms way with respect to foul trouble whenever he can, and he'll have plenty of opportunities to do that Saturday.

Prediction

Considering the Horns have a decided advantage in the halfcourt and a disadvantage in depth, I'd expect the Horns to err on the side of pulling the ball out and running offense once the Mizzou press is broken. Sure, if there's an obvious two on one or transition 3 to be had, we'll take it, but our flex-cut ball reversal stuff to Thompson in the post as well, our guard post up sets, and iso's should be there much of the night.

On defense, we have answers for Denmon, Bowers, and Ratliffe in the halfcourt, which means if we take care of the basketball, then Mizzou will probably struggle to score without the aid of easy buckets. It's also pretty reassuring that Barnes can roll out a ballhandling lineup of Thompson, Johnson, Hamilton, Brown/Balbay, and Joseph to eat up the press if need be.

For those reasons I like the Horns 80 to 74. Your thoughts? Keys?

Hook 'Em

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Comments

Good write-up. Agree with everything you said. Do you think Missouri is accurately ranked? How good do you think they can be?

One thing that worries me is if we take the fast break opportunities and screw them up. While I respect J’Covan’s passing game, I think he ends up screwing up a lot of break opportunities and he’s not a great finisher when he decides to take it himself. Likewise, Hamilton tends to not make great ball decisions when leading the break. Given that, unless we have a clear advantage in numbers, I’d just assume that we hold up and get our points methodically while running some clock.

by mashtun on Jan 28, 2011 5:00 PM CST reply actions

This is a 8pm home game. I fully expect the Ozone to be puking drunk and loud. Sure hope the rest of the Ho-hum Drum is awake. This team deserves some home court cooking.

Still a lot of games to be played, but if you put some money on Texas to win it all before the season started:
a) you’re a fucking crazy SOB
b) you’re a fucking crazy SOB that’s getting a little excited

Anyone know what the odds were for UT to win NC? I’m guessing at least 50-1, probably closer to 100-1.

by Texoz on Jan 28, 2011 5:15 PM CST reply actions

Huge weekend, with the return game with the Aggies coming up Monday. Once again, as last week when faced with A&M, followed by Kansas, the game to concentrate on is the home game. A loss to Missouri puts Texas on the fast track to 5-2 in the league and again looking up at KU (and probably A&M as well), which would kinda defeat the whole purpose of putting together a winning effort in Lawrence. But I don’t think that is likely.

My favorite Mizzou board is basically hoping that this is two years ago, that Balbay will either be getting or giving ball screens and therefore can be left unguarded, and that Texas can be pressed into submission in the final minutes, in part because they really go only seven deep. This, of course, ignores that Balbay, as you suggest, is as likely to be posting up as setting screens off the ball. But we’ll see. As you note, the Tigers have no good answers for Hamilton. The board outlook also suggests pressing hard when Balbay is not in the game, forgetting that Brown and Joseph took care of the KU press last week just fine.

One assumes that Barnes will not be coaching mad, and therefore that Balbay will not be benched in the first minute and left to rot, as he was two years ago, because he ran into a sideline trap. This set in motion the Rube Goldberg-style path to the Mizzou upset win, and drives the MU fans’ hopes because they interpret the Tigers’ three straight wins in the series as Anderson having Barnes’s number. I tend to put the last two losses on Barnes, as the leader of the misfit toys, but each fan base is entitled to its own interpretation, I suppose.

As far as the pressing goes, it should be noted that Texas has played several games well above the average MU tempo of about 74 possessions, although most of those were UT blowouts. However, Texas has won all but one of the games played at 70 or better (UConn being the exception), while each of MU’s losses has hit its average tempo mark or better. The trend there is that all three of the games have been high scoring (two in overtime), with opponents scoring 94, 89 and 77 in regulation.

I don’t foresee Texas being run over; the UConn result (including UT comebacks in both regulation and overtime) leads me to believe that UT should have a chance to win even if it doesn’t play its best. While I am normally conservative (some would say, pessimistic) when it comes to predicting Longhorn outcomes, given that Missouri by and large is not good on the road (or, perhaps I should say, does not play the potent ball it plays at home), I think that with just a little early accuracy, Texas can control the pace and take home a double-digit win.

by Bob in Houston on Jan 28, 2011 5:26 PM CST reply actions

Bob,
I hope yer joking when you say Doge will be posting up.

by scagnetti on Jan 28, 2011 6:12 PM CST reply actions

Did you not watch the okky aggy game?

by UT wildcatter on Jan 28, 2011 6:44 PM CST reply actions

it’s free rein… not free reign (or free rain)

by txhawk23 on Jan 28, 2011 7:18 PM CST reply actions

txhawk, what can I say, I’m folksy.

by Trips Right on Jan 28, 2011 7:31 PM CST reply actions

“This team deserves some home court cooking".

Agreed.

What is the Ho-hum Drum equivalent of “Come early, be loud, stay late”?

Show up, occasionally stand up, and do football cheers?

by Art Vandelay on Jan 28, 2011 8:06 PM CST reply actions

One thing I would add on the Safford and Bowers scouting report is that both of them can step out and hit the J if you let them, with Safford possessing a little more range than Bowers on most nights. But as long as the Texas bigs can get out and guard them —which they probably can — it really shouldn’t be a problem.

Your take on Ratcliffe was spot on, and I think he’s really added a valuable dynamic that makes this team capable of being even better than Mike Anderson’s 2008 team. Too bad Kim English hasn’t progressed at all. I’m a big fan of Kimmie and his work ethic is legendary at this point, but he’s virtually the same player today he was in the latter part of his freshman year. He’s not great off the dribble and certainly isn’t capable of guarding someone like Hamilton. His stagnation is quite puzzling, really.

Oh, and no love for Steve Moore? Just kidding. He’s terrible.

I almost want to say Texas is due for a letdown and a surprise loss in this one, but instead I’ll hope they save that for when K-State comes to town in a month. Either way, I’ll be watching the Big 12 Saturday primetime doubleheader with a lot of interest.

by hongabear on Jan 28, 2011 10:48 PM CST reply actions

Nice writeup.

I’m concerned that Gary Johnson has fallen a little too deeply in love with his jumper. He’s a consistent shooter, but I’d still like to see him drive more than he has in the past couple games.

I think the Mizzou press has a much greater likelihood of inducing a J’Covan Brown technical than a win in Austin. The horns are the more talented team here. We’ll get it done at home.

by HoyaHorn on Jan 28, 2011 11:43 PM CST reply actions

Mizzou is going to run your boys up and down the floor stealing the ball every chance they get.
All while scratching, kicking and clawing on the boards kicking it out to the sharpshooters all over the court. Then when the 5min mark of the 2nd half comes and your boys are so tired they can’t even walk Mizzou drops it in to 6th gear to finish you off. MU 89 TX 78

Should be an awesome game… oh ya, thank you for beating Kansas! FKU

M-I-Z!

by B. Moore on Jan 29, 2011 12:12 AM CST reply actions

Texas is a tough matchup for Mizzou. UT has a lot of ball handling ability 1 through 5 so I think the Mizzou D pressure is not going to be a real big problem but will provide some easy scoring opportunities.

Absolutely essential that UT works much harder on the offensive boards to at least touch or challenge every rebound to slow down the Mizzou fast break. Knocking an offensive rebound out of bounds is a worthy accomplishment. Getting all over a Mizzou rebounder so he has trouble throwing the outlet pass is very useful.

If UT is able to once shoot a much higher field goal percentage than the opponent, that makes it really tough for Mizzou to get enough defensive rebounding opportunities to fuel their fast break attack, which further reduces their field goal shooting percentage which further reduces…

Brown and Jordan are going to have to hustle back on D.

Game may be too fast for Hill so Wangmene will probably play more minutes. He needs to avoid stupid fouls and losing his cool.

Jordan will probably be the horn most likely to get excessively tired. The horns have 3 guards for 2 positions so those guys won’t be playing excessive minutes. The horns have 3 or 4 big guys for two positions, so those guys should be fine. Tristan can probably play 40 minutes anyway from a fatigue perspective. Gary seems in awesome aerobic shape, too. That leaves Jordan. He is big guy without a real good substitute. I guess Brown plays at least 5 minutes and maybe 10 minutes at small forward so the 3 guards will be splitting 90 minutes rather than 80 minutes.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Barnes attack the Mizzou press. The best way to stop a fast breaking team is to eliminate defensive rebounds by scoring. The easiest way to score when you are pressed is to attack the press and score. That also discourages a pressing team after awhile. UT has so much ability to put the ball on the floor and score (including Gary and Tristan), that I would love to see UT attack, attack, attack.

by Kafka on Jan 29, 2011 2:15 AM CST reply actions

I’ve only seen a little of Mizzou this year. Agree that the simple get back on D is key. Both our guards can’t go to the offensive glass, one has to get back. Jordan’s ADHD is very evident in the transition from O to D. He will get back to around the 3 point line and then just kind of look around for a second. He still spaces on D occasionally but is obviously getting much better.

Other than fast break, how can they really score with any consistency? We are not particularly turnover prone so they would need points in transition off defensive rebounds. Cojo and Doj are tremendous in transition d. We have 5-6 guys that can put it on the floor and score. This is a bad matchup for Mizzou.

The only thing I can think of that gives the Tigers a chance is that we are just due for one of those games. It should have come in Stillwater, but damn we are a workmanlike, grinding machine right now.

Thanks for the writeup, Trips. I am not able to watch near as much college basketball as I used to and I learn a lot about opposing teams reading your previews and it gives me some context as I watch the game. This one I get to watch live as it doesn’t interfere with kids activities for a change.

by Bartoncreek on Jan 29, 2011 10:29 AM CST reply actions

Fortunately for us, Mike Anderson still coaches Mizzou

by ransomstoddard on Jan 29, 2011 11:54 AM CST reply actions

http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=3737179

by rein or reign? on Jan 29, 2011 12:23 PM CST reply actions

Art, Kafka and BC, great stuff as always. Barton, we neeed to catch a game when you’re in town.

ransom, sounds like what Bob Knight said about Dale Brown.

“I was worried about losing until I looked down the floor and saw Dale Brown. Then I knew we had a chance.”
-Commenting on that stormy 1987 game with LSU

by Trips Right on Jan 29, 2011 12:28 PM CST reply actions

Mashtun, I agree with you, my biggest concern is decision making at the tail end of the press break. It takes discipline to pull out of 2 on 2 situations and run offense. I hope Brown and Hamilton are up to the task.

Texoz, they were probably 50 to 1.

Bob in Houston, that post should have been an article. Great stuff.

Hongabear, thanks for the scouting report. I’ll be watching your game intently and looking forward to the great post game write up. You guys need to right the ship in a hurry.

Hoyahorn, thanks man. I’m watching your boys take it to Nova as we speak.

by Trips Right on Jan 29, 2011 12:34 PM CST reply actions

Hoyahorn- interesting point about Gary Johnson. I’d agree in full if I could only see past the beauty of a true mid range jump shot. It’s the lost art— as long as he can do it, I think this team can leave the driving to others and still be fine.