Aloha, No. 1 seed?

by BobInHouston on Feb 25, 2011 2:34 PM CST in Texas Longhorns and Other Basketball

If you have a copy of the first half of Texas's 69-49 win at A&M on January 31, burn that sucker. Save it. Savor it. Review it frequently during the long, hot summer. It's likely the best half of basketball Texas will play this season. They peaked that night.

Yeah, I said it.

That's the bad news. However, that game was played about a month ago, and there's still time for the Horns to peak again, just in time for the NCAA tournament. Not saying it will happen... just that it can.

Until we know the answer to that question – and Final Four tickets went out this week for those you with an interest – the question for today, in the wake of the first Big 12 loss of the season, is what are the chances of the Longhorns claiming a No. 1 seed (and, most important, the route to the Final Four through Tulsa and San Antonio)?

Reading the tea leaves of the most recent polls, as well as the likely outcomes of the season for the various contenders, it appears that the loss to Nebraska has turned the chances from pretty darn good on both counts to not so hot in terms of the seed and even colder in terms of the path.

Before Nebraska, Texas probably was the hottest commodity in college hoop world. Between about 1:15 CT Saturday (after Pitt lost to St. John's) and 2 p.m. (just before the second half started in Lincoln), Texas looked like it was going to ascend to the No. 1 spot in the coaches' poll, in which it was ranked second, behind Kansas. (Texas actually was tied with Ohio State for the top spot in the ESPN power rankings that had come out on Thursday.)

That's not to say they were playing the best or most consistently. In the remarkable streak of not trailing for more than the equivalent of seven games, after the victory at Oklahoma State, the Horns performed the equivalent of seven straight bouts in which they dominated with a couple of early knockdowns, then resorted to clinching for the remainder of the fight. They had tried to do the same thing at Nebraska, building a seven-point halftime lead, but it wasn't enough for various reasons, the major two being poor outside shooting and abysmal defense.

The effect of the Nebraska loss was telling, even though all four of the top teams in the polls lost after the latest polls were released on Valentine's Day. When the new polls came out, Texas fell to fifth in both – behind the former leaders and new No. 1 Duke in the AP poll and behind No. 4 San Diego State in the coaches poll, with Pitt sixth. Texas dropped to sixth in Jeff Sagarin's rankings, and was fourth on Ken Pomeroy's list, behind Ohio State, Duke and Kansas. In the RPI, the NCAA's favorite measuring stick, Texas was eighth.

All this means that Texas has a tough road back to the top. Instead of the having a top seed in most of the bracket cogitation that is occurring, the Horns are now on the 2 line. In order to make it back, there is only one path that is a virtual guarantee: Sweep the remaining three regular-season games to win the Big 12 outright, and win the conference tournament the following week. That most likely would give Texas the chance to play in Tulsa, then San Antonio.

If the Horns can do only one of these, Kansas will have a strong case to be seeded above Texas, even though it lost to UT in Lawrence in January. It will have a better record (with as many as three fewer losses) and the more recent victory. This may happen even though the tournament selection committee long has shown respect for conference champions over the results of conference tournaments. (KU most likely has the edge in the tournament, due to its more versatile and deeper bench, especially in a third game in three days for both teams. Basically, the Jayhawks can bring scorers of the bench, and Texas doesn't.)

It should be noted that we're not even digging into the three remaining games. The Horns play Colorado tomorrow at altitude with minimum front-court depth due to the Alexis Wangmene suspension. Considering that the Buffs have lost only twice at home (to KU by four and to A&M in overtime), it's certainly possible that Texas won't be leading the B12 by itself at sundown.

If Texas does lose at least one more game, to get a No. 1, the Longhorns probably must be chosen ahead of two of three of Ohio State, Duke and the Mountain West tournament champ (especially if San Diego State can beat BYU tomorrow at home, and win the tournament, to finish 33-1). If North Carolina cannot beat Duke in Chapel Hill on March 5, I don't expect the Blue Devils to lose again before the NCAA.

If Texas can't move up, it's doubtful that the committee would provide a "home-court" advantage to a 2 seed over a 1, like Texas would be expected to have in the Alamodome. The committee has done something similar before, though, when it bracketed third-seed A&M to play second-seed Memphis in the Sweet 16 in San Antonio in 2007. However, doing that likely would move Kansas out of SA, the closest regional site to its campus. Even ESPN's Joe Lunardi, who had Texas in San Antonio as a No. 1 after the loss to Nebraska, moved the Horns to the Anaheim region in his most recent bracket iteration.

Given that going unbeaten in the Big 12 was going to be a tall order, getting San Antonio was going to be difficult because of the sheer number of decent candidates for a top seed. It's still out there, but road is going to be longer, and probably more difficult.

In the meantime, think small, and hope for a 40-minute effort.

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Comments

Thanks for the buzz kill, so much for my San Antonio plans. Based on what you said, it sounds like there’s about a 10% chance of us getting in that region now because I see at least 1 more loss before the big 12 tourney….shit.

by ballrific on Feb 25, 2011 2:51 PM CST reply actions

If Texas can’t move up, it’s doubtful that the committee would provide a "home-court" advantage to a 2 seed over a 1

True, but I have a plan. Consider losing 2 of the next 3. This still puts you as the 2-seed in the B12 tourney and gives you a road to the B12 championship game. Now, when you get to the championship game I suggest another loss, so not to inflate your seeding value.

What does this lead to you ask? A #3 seed in the NCAA tournament. The #3 rarely plays in the closest pod, and let’s face it, it doesn’t matter anyways. Unless of course you’re Kansas and have a tendency to bow out early of the OKC pod every time they are there.

So this still likely puts you in SA which is where you want to go anyway. Only now, instead of having to spend the previous weekend in Tulsa, you may get to go to Denver. I suggest staying the full four days and maybe getting in some skiing.

You’re welcome.

by Triston27 on Feb 25, 2011 2:53 PM CST reply actions

Still a lot of ball to be played. Pitt loses at Louisville tonight or v Nova, Duke loses at UNC, Kansas v Aggie or at MU, maybe even Wiscy sweeps the Buckeyes. I think if any one of those happens and Texas wins out in the regular season, we’ll get a one seed regardless of what happens in the Big12 tournament. And at least one of those upsets happening is highly likely. Its just up to us to take care of business against CU, KSU, and Baylor.

by Texastough on Feb 25, 2011 3:03 PM CST reply actions

The roadblock to us getting placed in San Antonio is KU. Even if we fell to a #2 seed, I don’t think the committee would theoretically hesitate to put us in San Antonio because of the obvious geographical proximity. If you’ve been following the bracketing over the past couple of years (and the media mock selection process last week), you’ll know that the committee is placing uber-importance on location for the privileged seeds. Personally, I think the committee places too much importance here, as it tends to be disadvantageous to the higher seeds on occasion (see Duke in 2010, Memphis in 2008, and Memphis in 2007 for recent examples in Texas). However, the problem for us is KU. Assuming KU gets the #1 in San Antonio over us, we can’t be the #2 there. So in reality, our battle for San Antonio is really a battle with Kansas for a #1 seed.

For me, the scenarios and outcomes re: San Antonio break down as follows:

Texas finishes at 15-1, Kansas finishes at 14-2 – the #1 in San Antonio likely comes down to the Saturday game in Kansas City (assuming both get there); we are likely to get a #1 seed regardless, but a loss to KU in the conference tournament would probably send us to Anaheim

Texas finishes at 15-1, Kansas finishes at 13-3 – this is best case for us; I think we’d get the #1 in San Antonio if we clear KU by 2 games in the conference standings and have the head-to-head trump card in Lawrence; it would make the conference tourney irrelevant; GO MIZZOU!

Any scenario that involves Texas finishing worse than 15-1 in conference – we’ll need to win the conference tournament to get a #1 seed (let alone be in San Antonio)

Perhaps there’s a scenario where KU gets a #1 seed, but Texas still gets San Antonio as a #2 (such as Ohio St. in Newark, Duke as a #1 in San Antonio with Texas as a #2, KU in New Orleans, and San Diego St. in Anaheim). That would require Pitt to fall to a #2, which is quite possible. We’ll see.

Regardless, the most important things for Texas are to win out and hope Mizzou can beat Kansas next weekend. Aside from that, UNC beating Duke and Pitt dropping a couple along the way wouldn’t hurt. Regarding our San Antonio hopes, I don’t think we’re in quite as bad a shape as Bob hints, but it’s definitely out of our hands at this point. Unfortunately, we used up our breathing room in Lincoln last weekend.

by Horn79 on Feb 25, 2011 3:20 PM CST reply actions

On target, BiH. I came to the same conclusion after reflecting on our last two conference outings: the team peaked. I only hope this dip is followed by a resurgence . . . anytime between now and the NCAAs, wherever the Horns land.

by AKHorn on Feb 25, 2011 4:01 PM CST reply actions

We should just stop playing now then. I mean, what’s the point?

Jesus the team plays one bad game in a tough environment and some people start making pearls in their vaginas.

by Flamingmonkeyass on Feb 25, 2011 4:54 PM CST reply actions

“KU most likely has the edge in the tournament, due to its more versatile and deeper bench, especially in a third game in three days for both teams.”

KU has the edge there mainly because it is in KC and 95% of the fans are Jayhawk fans. I don’t expect to beat them in the finals. We need some cusion before then. Winning out and them losing at Mizzou should hopefully do the trick.

by dick on Feb 25, 2011 5:06 PM CST reply actions

BiH, funny I was thinking the same thing. You could tell after the A&M game the team would run out to a lead and then rest. It isn’t a problem doing that but the leads became smaller and the rest became more pronounced. The Nebraska game fell into the same pattern. The one difference is that their defense seemed to really be below their standard.

The Iowa St. game did not fit the pattern. They started really slow and then got stronger as the game went on. If they really did hit a lull this would be a good time as long as they can reset a bit and get back to a peak in 2-4 wks.

by Monahorns on Feb 25, 2011 6:32 PM CST reply actions

The better question is why do recent Rick Barnes teams lay an egg after climbing to the top of the polls…

by TexasTomek on Feb 25, 2011 9:16 PM CST reply actions

Can’t agree with you that Texas is on the 2 line after teh loss to Nebraska when Kansas, Ohio St, and Pitt all lost in the same week.

If anyone is on the 2 line right now, it’s Kansas due to the head-to-head loss Texas, not leading their conference, and having the weakest resume of the Top 5 teams.

by Jacob Detamore on Feb 26, 2011 2:10 AM CST reply actions

I guess I should preface my last statement w/ the fact that I’m drunk and that losing one conference game hardly resembles the ostrich egg laid last year…but I certainly was riding the undefeated-in-conference-play train ’til the loss in the flat lands.

by TexasTomek on Feb 26, 2011 3:32 AM CST reply actions

I’m going to actually pull for the ags in Lawrence. May not be likely, but KU did lose to a pretty hosed up KSU team this year.

by Cimarrones on Feb 26, 2011 4:34 AM CST reply actions

Does J’Covan Brown count as “points off the bench” ? Thought so…

by Mighty Texas on Feb 26, 2011 7:26 AM CST reply actions

And, FWIW, Lunardi still has us as a one in bracketology. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

by Cimarrones on Feb 26, 2011 8:05 AM CST reply actions

I’d just as soon be a #1 or #2 in the West which is where we’d likely be placed if we don’t get the SW. If this team makes the Elite 8, which it should with a #1 or #2 if it’s in Bumfuk, Egypt, it will have far exceeded my expectations. If we get to the Final Four, which is still within reach, that’s played in Houston as you know. There’s little difference in a # 1 or a #2, no matter where you are playing.

We were going to lose a Big 12 game somewhere, and Nebraska is a tough home opponent and still on the bubble. Nobody said it was going to be easy. KU will lose to Missouri in Columbia—-book it! Their guard play is well below its usual standard and Taylor is still suspended as far as I know.

by Frank The Plank on Feb 26, 2011 11:51 AM CST reply actions

I like how before the season everyone [except me, resident optimist] thought this was a rebuilding year and would be happy with an NCAA bid. Now we are whining about not getting a 1 seed. Barring a massive collapse down the stretch, this year will exceed most reasonable expectations. What Barnes and the staff are building is a juggernaut.

by ransomstoddard on Feb 26, 2011 12:25 PM CST reply actions

A down side of the Big 12 tournament is that it requires an enormous amount of energy (if you play 3 nights in a row) only 5 days before the “2nd” round of March Madness starts. It is also more difficult for a team that plays super intense defense to muster up the energy and fresh legs to play that intense defense for 3 straight nights. For that reason, I’ve thought for a while that it it will be a challenge for UT to beat KU in the Big 12 tournament championship game (should both teams make it that far). Playing in KC makes it tougher, too.

by Kafka on Feb 26, 2011 1:49 PM CST reply actions

The 2nd half of the Colorado collapse was tough as hell to watch. Defensive effort wasn’t there and there was no focus on offense. We completely abandoned what we do. Our players appear to be in their own heads. JH is hesitant on every shot now and we’re just completely void of confidence.

Ugh.

by texasengr on Feb 26, 2011 6:07 PM CST reply actions