The Barnes way, and the Wright way

by BobInHouston on Feb 27, 2011 5:55 PM CST in Texas Longhorns and Other Basketball

If there were one coach that Jay Wright might be calling for advice today, it’s Rick Barnes.

Really?

Well, we all remember last year’s Texas free fall. Number one in the nation, and all that, and losing so many games after mid-January. At that point in the season last year, Texas had gone 17-0, and then won only five of its following 12 games. They split a pair in the last week, then another at the conference tournament, and bailed out of the NCAA in the first round.

Take a look at what Villanova has done this season. Were it not for a loss to Tennessee in the final of the Preseason NIT, the Wildcats would have started the season 17-0. Even at 16-1, they were ranked seventh in the nation, and we know how competitive it has been at the top of the rankings this year. But since then, at the same point that Texas was undefeated last year, the Wildcats, in their last 12 games, have won… five. They lost their last two Big East home games to Syracuse and St. John’s last week, and play tonight at second-place Notre Dame, just ahead of Texas’s game against Kansas State. And they finish at first-place Pitt on Saturday. Good luck on that.

If you’ve heard anything about this before now, you’re ahead of me. Villanova currently is ranked 14th and 15th in the major polls, while Texas ranked 21st in the comparable week last season, and was about to drop to the bottom of the list, or just out, following a loss at A&M. We’ll see if Villanova drops out of the polls tomorrow.

You might say, but Villanova plays in the Big East and has a much more difficult schedule. Well, Texas lost to four ranked teams by this point in its slide. Villanova has lost to five. Texas didn’t beat a ranked team after December, but Villanova beat only one as it headed downhill. That was No. 3 Syracuse, which had just started a 6-of-8 loss streak that pushed it down to No. 20 when the Orange won on Monday in Philly.

Is there a lesson here? Perhaps not – this isn’t a matter of schadenfreude, or any sort of comment on Wright’s leadership, although I’ll certainly be looking a lot closer at Villanova the rest of the way. But if there is, it appears that Texas’s mistake in falling apart last year was making No. 1 before doing it.

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Comments

Wha? Where’s Barnes going? Despite what many say about his in-game coaching abilities, fair or not, his record is hard to argue against. If Texas were to fire Barnes they’d have a very hard time finding a similarly qualified replacement, mostly because they would devalue the job by making the expectations virtually unattainable.

I think Wright would leave Villanova for the right job, but I don’t think Texas is that job- and it certainly isn’t that job if they fired a guy that’s won 72% of his games at Texas. If he were to “retire”, I’d still have a hard time finding anyone that would be willing to jump and be an upgrade to Barnes. It’s somewhat easy to point out a coaches warts but much harder to actually find an upgrade.

This speculation is quite similar to the UCLA/Howland speculation that I wrote about after the KU/UCLA game. I think the UCLA job, if they were to force Howland out, would also be far more difficult to fill than it was last time.

Jamie Dixon and Thad Matta would also be on my short list if either job were to open up (Dixon/UCLA doesn’t fit for obvious reasons), but the field of guys that are upgrades to Barnes or Howland are extremely small.

by Neon on Feb 27, 2011 6:34 PM CST reply actions

Barnes seemed too composed on the bench and willing to let things play out.

My guess is what we saw was a team enema. From here on, he’s got their rapt attention.

by OldTimeHorn on Feb 27, 2011 6:45 PM CST reply actions

A little results based analysis I did on 17 of the top coaches with 15 or more years coaching experience put both Wright and Barnes in the bottom 5. Barnes was actually 17th.

My attributes and their weights were:
Attribute Attribute Weight
NC – 30%
Final 4 – 20%
Elite 8 – 17.5%
Sweet 16 – 15%
Tourny Wins – 12.5%
Con. Champ – 5%

If a coach was in the top 5 in that category he received 10 points. If he was in the 2nd group of 5 he received 5 points and the coaches in the bottom group in that category received 1 point.

I also subtracted .5 from each coaches score for 1st round losses. That hurt Rick Barnes and moved him to the bottom.

Here’s the breakdown:
1.) Roy Williams (10)
2.) Coach K (9)
3.) Rick Patino (7.05)
4.) Jim Calhoun (7)
5.) Tom Izzo (6.125)
6.) Jim Boeheim (3.875)
7.) Billy Donovan (3.7)
8.) Tubby Smith (3.45)
9.) Bill Self (3.2)
10.) Gary Williams (2.3)
11.) Ben Howland (1.7)
12.) Bob Huggins (1.25)
13.) Rick Majerus (0.95)
14.) Montgomery (-0.3)
15.) Jay Wright (-0.5)
16.) Lon Kruger (-0.5)
17.) Rick Barnes (-2.2)

The data was compiled by Gerry H. Analysis can be seen here: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApcoqoVpuO_tdEpBMjBEdTFiUjZSYUE1SnJMTEhKa0E&hl=en&authkey=CJy75ooK

by maninblack on Feb 27, 2011 7:09 PM CST reply actions

Good stuff, BobinH and Maninblack. As this seems to be an examination of Rick Barnes’ coaching acumen, I’ll offer this:

I’m perfectly willing to let last year’s collapse remain in the rear view mirror and allow this team to stand — sink? swim? — on its own. IMO, Barnes has more positives than negatives. His change this year to an offensive scheme dictated by personnel rather than “this is what I run” is more than encouraging. And yet, I’m waiting for that next step, which as Trips Right so deftly pointed out in the Colorado Post Mortem has to be a recognition of what’s working and what ain’t and adjusting accordingly, even if it means allowing whipping boy J’Covan to play on.

by AKHorn on Feb 27, 2011 7:14 PM CST reply actions

You guys are missing the point. I’m not trying to stir up Fire Barnes or Hire Wright, or what makes a top-flight coach.. I’m saying that here’s a guy who’s going through almost exactly what Barnes went through last year, and we’ve heard nothing about it, while Barnes has been roasted.

And I’m not saying that Barnes shouldn’t have been roasted. I’m just marveling at the treatment. No one’s wondering if Villanova will miss the tournament, or what in God’s name has gone wrong.

It must be possible to play this poorly and be under the radar, because Villanova has accomplished it.

by Bob in Houston on Feb 27, 2011 7:16 PM CST reply actions

I agree with you Bob that Wright has flown under the radar and I agree that is largely being driven by fact they never reached number 1 and that much of the media discussion regarding the Big East is it’s strength in totality.

by maninblack on Feb 27, 2011 7:26 PM CST reply actions

Hard for anyone in the bidness to shake the stigma of a long-time coach who has yet to take “the next step.” Wright? The difference might be as simple as the eight more years Barnes has had to get where we’d all like to see Texas go.

by AKHorn on Feb 27, 2011 7:29 PM CST reply actions

Since we are dealing in perspective and I’m trying to find some, I’ll offer this. I don’t think that Billy Donovan is as good a coach as Barnes, yet he has two national titles. His teams were the definition of perfect storm. Before and since he has underachieved.

But for perspective, both of those championship teams lost 3 games at the end of the season. Ironically, the first team started 17-0 before ending with 6 losses and a three seed inthe tourney.

Maybe these losses are good for us, but they sure piss me off.

by jinx on Feb 27, 2011 8:51 PM CST reply actions

I think the tailored suits and pocket square/tie combo distract a lot of people. You GOT to coordinate.

by Dude on Feb 28, 2011 7:35 AM CST reply actions

Villanova was never ranked #1 with the media fawning over them. Face it, last year’s team completely faceplanted. Villanova is not even a comparison to last year. And I wouldn’t say this year’s Texas team has done much better, losing consecutive weekends to the number 76 and 84 RPI teams. If we aren’t careful, that freefall could be repeated.

by asatyss on Feb 28, 2011 9:20 AM CST reply actions

If all it took was a ‘perfect storm’ to win two national championships back to back then I’d say we’re about due for at least a tropical depression

by Mysterious Package on Feb 28, 2011 9:54 AM CST reply actions

I realize that is a crazy comment, but by perfect storm, I mean that he had all of the pieces and they fit together perfectly.

6’10" center to own the lane – Check
6’11" PF to do the dirty work – Check +
6’9" Wing to create mismatches – Check
SG that never misses a 3 – Check
PG who can handle – Check
All 5 starters pass the career 1,000 point mark
Deep bench – Check

Then to get that roster to come back for a second try….

Billy Donovan’s other teams look like they are coached by Tom Penders. Aside from that group, he has assembled a mismash of players who all want to shoot threes from the time they cross half court, Mike Miller’s team included.

by jinx on Feb 28, 2011 12:02 PM CST reply actions

I looked it up, and you are right. There is no comparison. Villanova lost to Rutgers and Providence, ranked respectively at 119 and 149 in the RPI.

by Bob in Houston on Feb 28, 2011 12:36 PM CST reply actions

Credit to Eamonn Brennan of ESPN for spotting this as well…

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/24414/poll-thoughts-back-to-the-bottom

by Bob in Houston on Feb 28, 2011 1:42 PM CST reply actions

What’s funny to me about this is… they did the same thing a year ago. I think they had lost like 5 of 7 heading into the NCAA tournament. And what seed were they given for this??

A well deserved TWO seed. In Duke’s bracket. Of course.

(So yes, I was one of the many who made good money betting on ‘Nova not making it out of the first weekend. I’m hoping for a similar arbitrage like opportunity this year.)

by Hiphopopotamus on Feb 28, 2011 3:05 PM CST reply actions

Hip, they had the internal team issues going for them at the time… one player screwing the other’s girlfriend. I don’t know if they have anything like that happening this year….

by Bob in Houston on Feb 28, 2011 3:08 PM CST reply actions

I think I had Nova beating Duke on the way to the F4 last year. Silly me…

by jc25 on Feb 28, 2011 3:16 PM CST reply actions

I looked it up, and you are right. There is no comparison. Villanova lost to Rutgers and Providence, ranked respectively at 119 and 149 in the RPI.

Oh.

Snap.

by CrazyJoeDavola on Feb 28, 2011 5:00 PM CST reply actions

Ha, well they are looking great tonight.

I had forgotten about that rumor, and I guess I never followed up enough to know if it was true. Circumstances or not, it cracked me up how no one seemed to realize how awful they were from about February on. And it seems to be happening all over again.

by Hiphopopotamus on Feb 28, 2011 7:47 PM CST reply actions