Texas Longhorn Basketball Selection Madness: Release The Kraken!

Unreal draw. I’ll give the committee this though.. if we win it will be one of the most exciting tournaments ever. Our likely road to the championship? Oakland, Arizona, Duke, UConn, UNC, Kansas/Pitt. Hardest path ever? Maybe.

More like Release the Bilas. He is shredding he NCAA committee.

Also, Seth Davis is wrong a lot, right?

Oh and this years committee clearly didn’t give any weight to entire body of work.

So Texas beats a #1 at their place, a #2 at their place,beat a #4 loses to a #1 and a #3 by a bucket and are considered by the committee to be #13-16 team in the tournament.

San Diego State loses twice to a full BYU squad getting run out of their own gym the second time, that beats the Cougs in the conference tournament after BYU loses their 2nd best player and I can’t really find another high quality win on their schedule yet they are a #2.

Davis IS wrong a lot. But he is a solid demonstration of conventional wisdom and the notions present in the committee.
 
Bilas is soundly destroying the selection committee. Deservedly so. Dick Vitale’s ramblings are inane as ever, but Bilas is dead on. As he is 97.8% of the time.

Vitale is an idiot and a lapdog for the NCAA

I love Doug Gottlieb too. I know he grates on some, but I love his honesty, analysis, and his opinions are consistently sound. He doesn’t suffer fools and I like it.

Bilas is awesome.

Dick Vitale rails on how “the kids are getting hurt” at Colorado and Va. Tech. Bilas says, “I don’t care about the kids…I care about performance, and UAB and VCU did not perform well enough to get into the tournament.”

The best point he made is that the teams at the bottom cannot win the tourny, but getting into the tournament is the Holy Grail, and coaches get fired over not getting in.

Alabama-Birmingham gets in with one win over a Top 50 RPI team — VCU, whose resume is even worse. Both schedule non-conference to help their RPI, don’t win those games but hey, it got them in the tournament.

I also agree with Bilas and others that it is a joke that so few members of the committee ever coached basketball. IF the BCS ever goes to a selection committe the thought of having the AD from George Mason on the committe doesn’t thrill me.

srr50 -
 
I don’t know if coaches are the answer either. To Gottlieb’s point, coaches are highly tribal and look out for their own. You need guys, who in the words of our Founding Fathers, are disinterested. Folks who are truly looking out for the game and value ideals over personal interests.
 
Whether by temperament or qualification.
 
Some of those people are coaches. Some of them are guys like Bilas.
 
I know very few of them are administrators. They are both highly prejudiced and unknowledgeable. A bad combo.

Question, to play devil’s advocate – while I understand that our seed and difficult draw are not indicative of our overall season’s resume, what about our end-of-season collapse? When we were streaking the Big12, we were the best team in the country. However, we seemed to have had our slump during what should have been the easier part of our overall schedule.

If we’re looking at the overall resume, we’re a 2 seed with a descent draw and region. Maybe the committee put to much emphasis on our late season collapse that seemed to cost us the Big12 regular season and tourney titles? Or, maybe they’re just morons?

Also, do you think they pay much attention to margin of victory, or just wins and loses and home/away/neutral?

We have heard Gene Smith on CBS talk about all the ways they parsed the data, including a coaches’ advisory committee. Get ready to hear it again on ESPN, this time with some bite to the questions.

Consider this, though. If you are on that committee, essentially the most powerful committee in college sports, and what you say goes, are you going to listen to anyone else?

It was a bad move for Dan Beebe to get on that committee. His whole league got screwed, except for Kansas, which couldn’t be ignored.

My excitement for the tournament took a huge down turn when I saw the seeding. I already thought an EE was the top of our reasonable ceiling. Now, I am thinking 2nd round. Just a huge gut shot. I hope the team reacts differently than me.

Dr. UCLA, I don’t think the committee is that smart. They’re political. Unfortunately, had we not lost three late games we should have won, they couldn’t have done it to us. So we can blame ourselves for giving them an opportunity to screw us.

Florida as a two seed is what really seems out of place to me..

I seem to have read perviously maybe in these pages that Duke was our best matchup?

…
Made #1, again? Check.
Late season collapse, again? Check.
Lose Big XII Tourney, again? Check.
…
First round NCAA Tourney exit, again? TBD

Stay tuned.

I am back from sxsw selection show party (which was crap) and I gotta say, this is the worst seeding job the committee has ever done. Unfortunately, Spencer Hall and Dan Shanoof were plenty happy with their position so they weren’t complaining.

The fact that Georgia is even in the tourney, much less a 10 seed is preposterous. I will fight anyone that thinks Georgia belongs. They’ll probably beat Washington and bulldog fans will be like “See!! See!!” but seriously, fuck you. You are the worst selection since the committee picked Air Force a while back because it felt “patriotic”. Awful/

And UT at 4 is unconcsionable (I am not going to spell that correctly right now). Fuck that I have to root for Duke against them Next Thu/Fri. And they get Oakland? A team that would beat 10 sead Georgia (Fuck you again, Bulldogs) by 15? That sucks. Ut has to be awake for their first round game and frankly, I thought they deserve no better(worse?) thant the Southland conference champion. Oakland can ball.

Anwyay…. this is my 10 minutes on the computer tonight. I am sure I will catch up and bitch more, but jesus that was a travesty.

Dr. UCLA… I’m voting “morons.”

If you compare, say, Florida and Texas, both Pomeroy and Sagarin have Texas well into the top 10 and Florida near the bottom of the top 20. But in the RPI, Florida is ahead… 5 to 11. I may have to reevaluate my belief that the RPI is not a factor in seeding. Florida’s best road win probably is Vanderbilt, then Xavier. Neither of those rank with either Texas winning at Kansas or at Greensboro against UNC. It’s like what happened in the last two weeks is more important.

But when it comes to Colorado, they had a horrible n-c schedule. The fact that they beat K-State three times and beat Texas, along with having the most top-50 wins among the teams they seemed to be up against didn’t matter enough. Here, the early schedule was more important.

Monahorns,

Why so glum? If we can’t run with the big dogs… For what it’s worth, here is the link to the Oakland website:
 
http://www.ougrizzlies.com/sports/m-baskbl/sched/oakl-m-baskbl-sched.html

I hope the link worked. We have Oakland, then if all goes according to plan, we play Arizona, then Duke. I’m not all that upset, but I do think Smith is incompetent. Is Smith’s competency really up for debate? How many violations has his athletic department had in recent history? Please.

Hook ’em!

Seriously — if you think Georgia deserved to be in the tourney over say Colorado or, oh, my dick, I will fight you. PM me.

java, I was just describing my gut reaction. I took a nap and woke up after the selection show excited to see where Texas ended up. As I saw 2 and 3 seeds flashing across the screen I started wondering where Texas was. I saw the 4 and that was my immediate reaction. I think my biggest disappointment was that just to get to an E8, Texas has to beat a 1 seed. After the season we had I was hoping for more.

To think about it rationally, we all thought Texas was good enough for a 2, so we should get to the S16. Then we would get Duke and there is no dominating teams so it is winnable. Once the tournament starts I will be optimistic.

Rpi is important to the idiots in Indy. Barnes does not schedule well for too. He has good and a lot of really bad on the schedule. Rpi rewards playing a bunch of 60 ranked teams not a some top 10 and a lot of 200+ teams.

Barnes needs to release the hounds period. Start the game with Balbay for defensive intensity and just when Oakland’s adjusted, unleash a fresh Joseph on their asses. But if Barnes coaches this team up into a shell that is scared to play open and thinks about every shot, we’re shutting it down early. Thing about Balbay is he’ll test out the lanes for you to see if they’re soft. They won’t be if they’re center is as good as billed. So then you bring in Joseph to open up the outside hopefully as well as flash down the lane. My only qualm with CJ is that sometimes he takes the ball coast to coast when he should kick it out to the open man—almost everyone on this team can dribble somewhat unlike last year. If Texa can get the bigs out and make the extra pass, they win this. Nobody but nobody outside of the fans and families of Oakland know what that team is all about but Texas has 5 days to prepare.

Bob,

but how do you put KState in knowing that a team that has their number is left out?

isn’t it odd that the Big 12 had 5 teams in the top 25 and yet the second best team is a 4 seed?

Hubert has got Texas in the Final Four, the only one to pick us for the Elite Eight though. It would be sweet to get some revenge on Duke

Duke’s got serious issues away from ACC refs. If Duke gets a crew that lets them put one (or two) hands on dribblers and cutters all night long, they can beat anyone. Take that away, and that team becomes a step too slow and a few inches too short.

Take away Smith, and it’s a mid-major roster. Texas should be able to handle the match-up.

The committee clearly has ruled that the ACC is much better than is believed by most and that the Big 12 is much worse.
 
And apparently UAB, who no on the planet thinks deserves even a dark horse mention, is 1990 UNLV.

How was the panel, A-Tex Devil? Fill me in.

Duke and UNC got their normal show-seeds (always good for ratings), but Clemson got a play-in and FSU’s a 12. 4 bids, 2 barely. Did I miss something?

kemit, it’s not the first time a team that didn’t make it had three wins over a team that did.

Colorado’s out because of its n-c schedule. K-State had them by two games in the B12, anyway.

ACC -
 
Colorado is a better team than both Clemson and FSU, in my estimation.

Probably. But when was the last time one of the Big 6 conferences sent less than 4? I can’t recall that ever happening.

I know — “37 best at large, regardless.” That’s clearly window dressing.

We were probably penalized for Barnes’ decision to start bringing Lucas off the bench before Brown. Just mind-boggling.

Fair point.
 
Brand equity won out in this tourney except for the bizarre UAB pick.
 
If Michigan St wasn’t called Michigan State, their 14 losses isn’t a 10 seed. They’re sitting at home.
 
Nova lost 10 OF THEIR LAST 15. Whoa.
 
Oh, well. I refuse to let bad committee work spoil the best event in the world.

ADP -
 
Lucas’ minutes came at the expense of Dogus, largely. Look at total minutes, don’t sweat order.
 
J’Covan probably benefits from sitting and watching a little. He forces things when he’s in early.
 
That written, I like Brown playing 25-30 minutes more than 20-25. Dude is the key to our run, if it’s going to happen.

11 Big East just blows… my… mind….

I think UAB and VCU were RPI picks. As in, “If you’re willing to play enough bigger schools in their gym, making every AD’s life that much easier relative to scheduling, we won’t actually require you to win any of them” lottery.

Not saying it’s valid, but according to the RPI matrix (http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/sort/lrpi) ($), you could ostensibly base the Horns’ 4 seed on 3 things: a non-conference strength of schedule ranked 74th, a 2-4 record against the Top 25, and a 4-3 record against mediocre-to-bad teams (51-100).

FWIW, Texas ranked 4th in adjusted scoring margin, 4th in conference RPI, and 3rd in Joe Lunardi’s preferred RPI rating. It’s Interesting that the former set of criteria so significantly outweighed the latter.

Freaking RPI. I though people exposed this metric as not only being a crappy way to assess team quality, but, worse yet, as being a metric that can be easily game though clever scheduling. Yet the talking heads keep quoting the teams RPI, record vs RPI top 50, and RPI SOS (worst of all since RPI itself is already mostly a SOS measurement). When will the madness stop.

Scip, check out out stretch runs by whoever we’re playing when Lucas is in vs. when Brown is in. The contrast is meaningful. Brown just does a lot of things that Lucas can’t do. Even though Lucas played as well as he’s capable of playing against KS, he is woefully limited and in being so limits what the team can do with him in. The bell curve of production moves to the left in a statistically significant way when he’s in the game. If he comes in just two minutes before Brown it could be a critically deficient two minutes.

Barnes needs to get over his practice frustrations with Brown now that the bright lights are on.

Loved you post KS blog by the way.

How is Kentucky a 4 and Florida a 2?

Looks like Marv Albert is calling our game. Maybe Sager will break out a burnt orange jacket.

12:15 PM CBS Tulsa I Texas vs. Oakland Marv Albert/Steve Kerr//
Craig Sager

Scipio

If there was a panel it was all online. Very disappointing but so is sxswi.

The following seeds/bids are mind blowing to me:
Texas
Sdsu
UAB
Georgia
Florida
I am drunk. There are more. This is an abomination.

If i’m the AD at mid-major X, I schedule Duke, UNC, Ohio State, Texas, Kentucky on the road.

Lose to each by 25-30 points. Then go 9-1 against some directional non-con scrubs.

Go 13-5 in rinky dink conference.

22-11. No wins over anyone. RPI in the 30s.

RPI locked in. Bid assured.

Committee not bright.

Actually here is my theory. The last few years the selection committee has been pretty much right on. There haven’t been a lot of upset. This is actually bad from an excitement, buzz, marketability point of view. Enter RPI. RPI will for the most part usually select the top teams in any one conference, but it is easily gamed and will often get the screw up adjacent rankings (see Florida having a higher RPI ranking than Kentucky). By using this metric they get the overall field mostly right, but the rankings are all jumbled and meaningless. There is more controversy, more buzz, more upsets. Confound it even more by sending teams all of the country in no discernible pattern. Imperfection is the goal, and the RPI is the perfect tool toward that end.

Florida has 7 losses, three of them are to UCF, Jacksonsville, and South Carolina. The other four to UK twice, tOSU, and Miss State. Their top 25 wins are UK, Vandy twice, and KSU at home. Now look at Texas’ resume.

Fuck me in the ear.

Yeah, it’s a bad seed and a bad draw for no good reason. It’s not getting a lot of attention but that doesn’t mean it’s not going to affect Texas big-time.

11 a.m. CT Friday on CBS. They’re thinking upset.

Bob, yeah, I’d rather have a UCLA, BYU path to the regional final than the Arizona, Duke route.

11 am…sucks. Looks like a long lunch for me on Friday.

we just got bent over.

I’ve looked and looked and there is no other way to view it.

apparently espnUT is not so popular.

4 seed Texas
5 seed KState

yes, this looks right.

Agree with Tex. Playing teams like Navy hurts you much more than playing UConn helps. RPI really is horseshit these days compared to what else is out there and shouldn’t be a factor in seeding.

I expect us to lose a close one to Duke ala 2009, although playing them out West could be the difference.

Lie down like dogs.

Well, who are they? (Yes, that was rhetorical.) Did any of you check out the boxscores on Oakland? If we aren’t ready to play, we can be beaten by anyone, but these are the NCAA’s, and we had better be ready!

Why would anyone predict upset unless they were trying to bump ratings? We are young and talented, and this team has a bunch of fighters on it. They aren’t going to plant themselves at midcourt with flowers on their chests (like Abe Lemmons once did).

A four seed is wrong and the committee sucks big ones, but I like our chances. This is a good group of kids, and it’s time for them to peak again. They seem to be getting there after the late season slump. A good team seems to bring out the best in this group.

The players can handle the schedule. I just hope the fans can.

The bottom line is, if you’re playing to win the whole thing, it doesn’t matter who you play. You have to approach it with the mindset that whichever of the 63 (or 67) other teams is on the court, you can beat them.

That being said, homecourt advantage is always a factor. Purdue as a 3 seed in the San Antonio region, and Florida as a 2(??) in the New Orleans region instead of Texas is BS.

But fuck it, it is what it is, Ohio St’s AD is apparently not that bright, at least he’s not our AD. Once our guys get out on the court, they’re capable of beating any other team in the field. Hopefully Gary Johnson will find his shooting touch.

Clapper, I love the fact that we play Duke away from their home. I just hope the Horns have good representation. The matchup with Duke seems like it would be the best.

I liked Barkley’s take, “The winner of Texas/Arizona can go a long way in the tournament”.

The real early tipoff time (especially just after the DST spring forward) is an advantage for the horns compared to the West coast team that is used to getting up 2 hours later than the horns.

Texas is installed as a 9.5 point favorite.

Kafka, you do know that Oakland is located in Rochester, Michigan, right?

Florida is favored by 13.5 over 15th seed Cal Santa Barbara.

UAB Conspiracy Theory:

In Memory of Myles Brandt the NCAA decided to let in Bob Knight’s lease favorite coach, Mike Davis, who Knight feels stabbed him in the back 11 years ago.

It looks like Oakland ha some talent but does not play defense. Hopefully we actually run an offense during the game. If we refuse to run a real 1/2 offense that spreads the floor, we might as well let the team play loose and jack up the ball as long as they play intense defense. I would prefer an organized offense, just not sure if Barnes knows how to do that.

It is crazy that florida got the two… but if you look at their path.. I honestly think they have the easiest road to the final 4 of all the teams in the tournament…… I think Pitt is the worst one seed in the whole thing, I wouldn’t be surprised if ODU beat them, they are very similar teams and if they don’t… I really think K ST will.

Florida will most likely face ucla; st johns; kansas st or Pitt.

Man, I can’t believe with the dick job the Big 12 just got that Kansas even got a one seed.

Florida as a two and Purdue as a three is a fucking joke, and Florida is a two in the South east. How the fuck they get a two seed basically at home is unbelievable.

This is what happens when the anyone remotely connected to the Big 10 is in charge of anything.

Gene Smith was an amazingly poor interview. He could not begin to justify the committee’s picks. At any moment it seemed that he might deny knowing anything about Pryor and buds selling jewelry and autographs for tattoos.

Bilas was shocked Texas is a number 4, but he doesn’t think it is a big deal.

I love the ESPN outrage over the poor the committee did, even calling for a basketball commish. In most years the committee does a good job, but this year it seems that the committee was more concerned with politics than athletics. The Barker that said the Big12 commissioner was a good representative for the Big 12 was spot on.

Seems no one is mentioning the hometown angle for J. Hamilton if we can make it to Anaheim. Dude would presumably be playing in front of lots of friends and family there. Here’s hoping the motivation to make it there leads to epic performances in Tulsa.

Dammit — just remembered the egg Hamilton (and Texas) laid at USC. So scratch that theory.

The Barker that said the Big12 commissioner was a good representative for the Big 12 was spot on.

In what way? Certainly not on the selection committee. As a matter of fact no commissioner should be on the committee. Whenever a Big 12 team came up, Dan Beebe had to leave the room. Meanwhile Gene Smith only had to leave the room when Ohio State was being talked about (which probably took all of 30 seconds). When another Big 10 team was up for debate Smith could lobby to his hearts content.

Same for SMU AD Steve Orsini who looked out for UAB and VCU — to Colorado’s expense.

Tallyho! A Scipio siting!

I’m no basketball expert by any means, but my take is that the selection committee allowed reputation and subjectivity to make the final call, and Texas’ late season slide last year – coupled with a ragged end of this year – convinced them that a downgrade was justified.

Call it recency bias, but I think it boiled down to a perception that Texas is has a shallow rotation and is worn out, and they currently aren’t playing at a 2/3 seed level. Whatever – I’m certain that there are other teams that aren’t playing as well as they did early on, yet rate a better seed based on reputation.

Corrollary – if Barnes has done such a good job in recruiting over the last few years, why does he have such a difficult time developing enough depth so that he doesn’t get stuck with ~8 guys that he can trust to play meaningful minutes?

Levander,
Yeah that logic would work. . . if it weren’t for Villanova.

Corrollary – if Barnes has done such a good job in recruiting over the last few years, why does he have such a difficult time developing enough depth so that he doesn’t get stuck with ~8 guys that he can trust to play meaningful minutes?

13 players he recruited are in the NBA — almost all of them leaving early.

13 players he recruited are in the NBA — almost all of them leaving early.

Fair enough, but how is it that other teams are able to develop a deeper rotation with player that can contribute meaningfully? Texas can’t be the only team that is losing good players to the NBA year after year.

uthookem,

I may be down for that long lunch. Still working at Garden Ridge on the South Side?

For whatever reason our guys just don’t seem nearly as head strong and resilient as they did earlier in the season.

The stroke and negotiating skill of Dan Bebe has no bounds.

Levander, I can’t quantify it right now, but I’ve always thought that Texas has lost more good players sooner than just about any program trying to play at the elite level.