Texas Basketball NCAA Tournament Preview: Breaking Down Oakland
Before the tournament selection, Oakland was identified by many as a team likely to foist an upset, irrespective of opponent. Several national commentators are sticking with that prediction now that Texas is the announced draw - including Seth Davis and Joe Lunardi.
However, upsets don't occur in a vacuum. Or even a Dust Buster.
The opponent means everything.
According to KenPom, the Grizzlies' advanced offensive statistics reveal the 2nd highest FG% in the country (an amazing 49.4%), that they're hellacious offensive rebounders, they launch twenty two 3 point shots on average per game, and they have balanced scoring. Their adjusted offensive efficiency (essentially their efficacy per possession) ranks 13th in the country and their adjusted pace is in the top 2% of Division I. This is an offensive-minded, fast tempo ball club that can fill it up against anyone. This isn't Loyola Marymount, but they will gladly play you in the 90s.
Defensively, their numbers are sobering. The Grizzlies aren't guarding consistently and, facing a weak schedule on balance, they rank 200th in the nation in defensive efficiency. More damning, their forgettable defensive point per possession numbers aren't because they're using pressure to turn people over - they rank 327th in the country in forcing turnovers. 241st in steals.
BTW, it's shocking to some Longhorn fans to learn that our adjusted offense is ranked #19 nationally and our defense is #1 in those same rankings. True, statistics often belie the truth and don't reflect our recent play, offensive rebounding is part of our hidden efficiency, but it's also because most Longhorn basketball fans watch no other basketball team than Texas and fancy that the entire country is fashioning Swiss timepieces on offense.
Let's look at Oakland's qualitative profile and how it meshes with our own:
Oakland Size
Not your typical mid-major. Oakland is bigger than we are. 12th in the nation in effective height (a formula that measures size of players adjusted for actual minutes played). Senior center Keith Benson is a legit 6-11 230, a dominating shot blocker, and their leading scorer and rebounder (18-10). He's a legit NBA prospect and he can run full court. Will Hudson is the senior PF and he goes 6-9 235. He's a physical 12.5 ppg guy who works the offensive glass, shooting 64% from the field. Their best ball defender, Valentine, is a 6-5 225 former football player at the 3.
Texas: We're more susceptible to strength than pure height. See how we matched up against Baylor vs. UConn. Tristan hasn't struggled with tall. He struggles with 6-8 260. Gary Johnson must keep Hudson off of the backside glass and he needs a quick hook for Wangmene or Hill if he won't do it. Not a single guy in the Oakland front court can cover their Longhorn opposite in a face-up situation. If Gary Johnson decides to hit his 16 footer again, he should have it available on demand against the Grizzlies.
Oakland Pace
Oakland is committed to up-tempo play. They work it inside and then try to shoot a 3 or get a runner from their quality PG Hamilton. They maximize their number of possessions, get good ball movement, and murder the offensive boards. Patience is not their virtue. They have three legitimate threats outside the arc, including a 45% 3 point shooting specialist in Bader. They're playing a volume game, pure and simple.
Texas: This plays into our hands. We defend the three point line better than any Texas team in recent memory and pace elevates Doge from a half-court liability to a true game factor. Their Hamilton is a classy point guard, but he's also 5-11 and Doge's strength will wear on him. Similarly, playing fast makes it "just basketball" instead of a trip to the dentist and transition baskets will be available to us. If we refuse to attack in transition when we have numbers under some misguided notion that it is playing into their hands by elevating pace, we deserve to lose. Our guys are faster, quicker, and more active over 40 minutes.
Oakland Experience
The Grizzlies best players are upper classmen. Similarly, that experience is at point guard and in the post, precisely where you want it. They've also played several big-time basketball schools this year and they're not going to be intimidated by Texas.
Texas: We tend to forget just how young we are. Our four best players are underclassmen. We can't let Benson use his experience to put two early fouls on our favorite Canuck.
As for Oakland playing good teams, against Texas comparable programs - West Virginia, Purdue, Cincy, Illinois, Tennessee, Michigan, Ohio St - they went 1-6 with one big win over Tennessee in Knoxville and an average loss margin of 16.3 points.
Oakland Defense
Oakland's defense is built around blocking shots (Benson gets almost 4 a game) and funneling dribblers into his house. They don't do much else well and they're not a cohesive team defense. They primarily man and they don't pressure or trap that effectively.
Texas: Sounds like a good prescription for an offense that's still getting over the flu. This will be checkers, not chess. Does Oakland strike you as a team that will fight through screens or beat our shooters to their spots?
Doing What They Do
Saw a film with their head coach on the Grizzly website in which he talked about doing what they do in their system and not worrying about the other team. That's probably accurate in the Summit League. And it fits their basketball system.
Not the best plan for Texas. I'll be concerned when we run into the coach that decides attacking our personnel with specific tactics and refusing to play us honestly is the key to victory and has a system that allows it. That's when we're going home.
Until then, assuming the basketball gods don't allow Oakland to shoot 14 of 25 from 3, I like the Horns by 12.
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It will be important for the team, and J’Covan and Hamilton in particular, to understand that OU will get on a few runs where they put several 3’s together, and we don’t have to come down and respond with off-balance 25 footers of our own. If we start trying to shoot 22 three’s, we’ll get run out of the gym. Against OU’s defense, good shots will be plentiful
by ransomstoddard on Mar 15, 2011 7:03 AM CDT reply actions
“If we start trying to shoot 22 three’s, we’ll get run out of the gym.”
Yeah if Doge is taking all of them. If they’re leaving Hamilton and/or Brown open behind the arc I want them shooting.
by nordberg on Mar 15, 2011 8:27 AM CDT reply actions
“Oakland’s defense is built around blocking shots (Benson gets almost 4 a game) and funneling dribblers into his house. They don’t do much else well and they’re not a cohesive team defense. They primarily man and they don’t pressure or trap that effectively.”
I’m lost. Seems like if they wanted to funnel someone inside, they could play zone. My guess is they save their legs for the offensive end and zone except from the guard position would do just that as well as keep guys in position to rebound. Why would they play man if they have difficulty on the defensive side? This should be an interesting game that all eyes will be on.
by kemit on Mar 15, 2011 8:44 AM CDT reply actions
If we attack the basket like they’ll allow us to, I set the over/under on Benson fouls at 4.5.
If the officials let ‘em play, it’s advantage Texas anyway. This is a bad matchup for Oakland. They needed to draw BYU.
Great post. Spot on.
by Trips Right on Mar 15, 2011 8:46 AM CDT reply actions
Looking forward to a fresh-legged Texas team shutting up the critics. How could this team not have a chip on their shoulder? #4 in Kenpom, #11 RPI, #8 AP… 4 seed. Go get some.
Will there be a BC Bracket group this year? I want my tote bag, dammit.
by texasengr on Mar 15, 2011 8:48 AM CDT reply actions
Thanks Scip, your breakdown makes me feel more comfortable about Friday. My concerns don’t exactly have to do with the drill -down look at x’s and o’s of your report.
I have been with enough teams at the NCAA’s to know that I hate the early morning tip-off. My experience points it to being especially difficult for the higher seeded team. Teams like Texas are not used to the early morning wake up calls, the arena will be half empty (say, maybe that will be an advantage for us – it will look just like the Erwin Center), and the lower-seeded team is usually a little more emotionally involved at the begining of the game.
I also believe in conspiracy theories and the NCAA loves to put 4-13, or 5-12 matchups in the early morning slot, because it helps to build the “Cinderella Factor” into the tournament.
The recent past has seen several #13 seeds win over #4 seeds. Last year Murray State took out Vanderbilt 66-65. In 2009 Cleveland State took out Wake Forest 84-69 and back in 2006 Kansas was the victim, losing to Bradley 77-73.
As for Oakland playing good teams, against Texas comparable programs – West Virginia, Purdue, Cincy, Illinois, Tennessee, Michigan, Ohio St – they went 1-6 with one big win over Tennessee in Knoxville and an average loss margin of 16.3 points.
True, but all were in hostile environments. and Oakland coach Greg Kampe is being smart by selling his team on the idea that wae are built along the lines of Tennesse — the one team Oakland did beat on the road.
He is using another little emotional trick for his team — the disrespect card. Rick Barnes mentioned that he got to know Kampe a few years back when Texas played Michigan up an Auburn Hills. Oakland played Oregon after our game and beat them. Barnes said they have talked on the phone a few times.
Kampe says that last year when Barnes called to talk about how Oakland attacked the 2-3 zone of Michigan he tried to set up a game with Texas.
“The funny thing about it was, after I got off the phone a little bit, I called him about playing,” Kampe said.
"And he was like, ’We’re never playing you guys.’ It was about two years ago. They saw us beat Oregon. I said, ‘How about coming to play us at the Palace; we’ll do a two-for-one?’ And he was like, ‘Nah, we’re never playing you guys.’ "
I realize all of my concerns are countered by the facts as you stated, still I will worry over this one until tip off.
But then again, it is exactly what makes this week so great.
by srr50 on Mar 15, 2011 8:59 AM CDT reply actions
That kind of thing irritates me that he is trying to play the disrespect card.
Barnes is professing his respect (or at least his belief that Oakland is underrated) by saying he is never going to play them. He (Barnes) knows that they are good, and thinks they have a chance to beat UT, while UT gains nothing from beating them if that’s what it comes down to.
I’m sure there are at least 300 schools in this country that would love to play UT. We have to say no to most of them, as we control about 12 games a year. Barnes was complimenting that dunce.
by Wulaw Horn on Mar 15, 2011 10:20 AM CDT reply actions
Yeah Barnes likes to schedule A) Michigan State, UNC, UConn, etc, or 2) Douchebag State. There’s not a lot of in between, which is what Oakland is.
by nordberg on Mar 15, 2011 10:25 AM CDT reply actions
Douchebag State was dangerous a couple years ago. Just sayin.
by huge on Mar 15, 2011 11:19 AM CDT reply actions
“Douchebag State was dangerous a couple years ago. Just sayin.”
Must have been before Cade Davis transferred to BlowU….
by marqroid on Mar 15, 2011 11:35 AM CDT reply actions
ransom -
I agree. Our players just need to score the easy basket where it’s available.
kermit -
When you zone, you lose pace. Oakland wants you to shoot early so that they can get the ball back. In a scoring contest, they believe that their offensive skills will win over time.
Trips -
Now that I have your stamp, I feel better. Granted, it’s a tramp stamp…
texasengr -
A bracket is a good idea.
srr50/ Wulaw -
Thanks for the downer. You’re right. An early morning game in front of 3,000 people isn’t exactly an emotional environment that this team can feed off of. I hope Barnes is running our practices in the AM during Spring Break so that our guys can acclimate.
Every coach is going to grasp for some slim motivational factor to spur his team on. Ours played out on national television in front of the player’s friends, family, and the rest of the Big 12. If our players aren’t focused like a laser, then this team has some pride and contentment issues.
nordberg -
Douchebag St is used to playing in hostile environments.
by Scipio Tex on Mar 15, 2011 2:31 PM CDT reply actions
I hope Barnes is running our practices in the AM during Spring Break so that our guys can acclimate.
Practice at 11:00 am every morning since they got back from KC.
by srr50 on Mar 15, 2011 3:38 PM CDT reply actions
They have the pressure to clean up around the basket!
Seriously though, perhaps Oakland’s offensive efficiency also relates to off rebounding although they still had 47% shooting on only 6 off boards in their only conference loss (cue Kafka’s rebounding opportunity relationship).
In that loss they also got their bigs in foul trouble, fouling out Benson and Hudson. I’d love to see more Doge and Brown slashing toward the hoop in the half court set. Get them in foul trouble and end the game early to save legs for Zona. Seems someone to break down the defense with the ball is what’s missing from our O, Corey has had it in his hand lately but is not as elite as our PGs on the ball, perhaps they are too focused on passing into the post every time? We need to be able to adjust when teams start doubling TT.
by Erik The Orange on Mar 15, 2011 4:03 PM CDT reply actions
Erik –
Yes, Oakland relies heavily on their offensive rebounding for their efficiency. They’re hitting something like 56% of their 2 point fgs as a team, which is a crazy stat. That’s why their PF Will Hudson shoots 64%.
Cory is a combo guard who will play his true 2 position next year and it’s hard for Dogus to slash to the basket against a set defense with his defender sagging nine feet off of him. Yet another reason to run the ball.
Myck Kabongo will provide the remedy you crave, but he can’t suit up Friday.
by Scipio Tex on Mar 15, 2011 4:19 PM CDT reply actions
I’m not sure how much room there is for two Viking Eric(k)’s on this board.
So the tournament opens on St. Paddy’s Day? This should end well.
by magnusbleuveigner on Mar 15, 2011 4:43 PM CDT reply actions
Sounds like a game that Doge can be an offensive factor with his full court drives to the bucket. Nothing like having 5 on 5 for a game or 2.
If GJ can relocate his midrange jumper I’ll be a happy guy. I’m really looking forward to this game and tourney. More anticipation for March Madness than I’ve ever had in the past.
This team has, for the most part, been extremely fun to watch, and the members, for the most part, are very likeable guys. They all seem to like and support each other. Tristan may be my favorite player all time.
by beowulf on Mar 15, 2011 4:48 PM CDT reply actions
Thanks for the data Scip, those are amazing stats, can’t wait to bring those numbers down.
As for PG play, it is just frustrating because we’ve seen flashes of greatness. Barnes probably wants the ball in CJ’s hands for TO mitigation but we’re going to hit our ceiling quickly if we don’t let Brown run loose somewhat and let Dogus (nailed the sp this time!) do the dirty work off the ball as those more keenly aware than me on this site have suggested. This is the game where you want to build confidence in some of those areas you aren’t consistent in. Or do you just play it safe and play to your strengths and out talent the weaker opponent?
Although I’d be content if the Sweet 16 is as far as we get, I don’t want to settle for it.
magnus,
As long as the other one doesn’t kill all my slaves, we’ll be fine. I’m going to go sulk in my unoriginality now…
by Erik The Orange on Mar 15, 2011 6:57 PM CDT reply actions
This tourney has an excitement about it, and I’m thinking good things. Win or lose, our guys get to return to Austin when it is over, and they are the only team that can call Austin home. Lucky guys.
by java on Mar 15, 2011 10:10 PM CDT reply actions
java,
Hard for me to agree with that statement when our contributors are pretty much 1/2 & dones and home for this team is Canada, the Trill Coast, Compton, and some Middle Eastern country.
I bet Andy Dick is from Austin though!
Nope.
by texasengr on Mar 15, 2011 11:08 PM CDT reply actions
If that bear had horns, it would look like Bevo donkey-punching the ou logo.
by Homesick Alien on Mar 16, 2011 9:49 AM CDT reply actions

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