It’s The Final Countdown!
- Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton (Quarterback/Auburn). Cameron was a preacher’s son, and when his daddy would visit he’d come along. We all know about Cam’s baggage. We also know about his talent. Physically, he has everything you look for in a quarterback, but there are real question marks about his maturity and intelligence. All indications are, though, that the Panthers will roll the dice with the son of a preacher man.
- Denver Broncos – Marcell Dareus (Defensive Tackle/Alabama). The man who ended Colt McCoy’s collegiate career might be the safest pick in the NFL Draft. Denver is desperate for help at the defensive tackle position. It just fits. However, the Broncos might move back if they can get the right deal.
- Buffalo Bills – Von Miller (Linebacker/Texas A&M). This will probably boil down to Von Miller or Blaine Gabbert. The pass-rushing Aggie is a much safer pick, and the Bills’ defense is wretched.
- Cincinnati Bengals – A.J. Green (Wide Receiver/Georgia). If not for Carson Palmer’s threat to trade him or he’ll retire, I would have no problem penciling in Green here. However, Palmer seems to be serious, and Gabbert is still out there, which should lead to a spirited debate in the Cincinnati war room. I still think they’ll take Green and look to target a quarterback in the second round.
- Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Peterson (Cornerback/LSU). Arizona’s biggest need is quarterback, but the buzz from Arizona is that they will target a veteran after the labor situation is settled. Cornerback isn’t their biggest need, but Peterson is too talented to pass.
- Cleveland Browns – Julio Jones (Wide Receiver/Alabama). Cleveland could perk up their defense with either Robert Quinn or Nick Fairley, but Colt McCoy needs his professional version of Jordan Shipley. Playing in Alabama’s offense, Jones didn’t put up elite numbers, but he is an elite talent. No word if he can catch passes on a moving boat.
- San Francisco 49ers – Blaine Gabbert (Quarterback/Missouri). Quinn and Prince Amukamara would both help the 49ers’ defense, but I don’t think Jim Harbaugh will be able to resist taking a quarterback with Gabbert still on the board.
- Tennessee Titans – Robert Quinn (Defensive End/North Carolina). Everybody seems to be putting Nick Fairley here, due in good part to the Titans hiring his collegiate position coach, Tracy Rocker. However, I think Quinn’s ability to rush the passer will be more attractive to the Titans. Don’t be surprised if the Titans reach for Jake Locker, either.
- Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith (Offensive Tackle/USC). The Cowboys seem like a prime candidate to trade back if offensive tackle is the direction they are going to go. They might be able to get Smith or several other guys like Anthony Castonzo or Nate Solder later on. If they stay, the debate will likely be between Smith and Amukamara. Smith has played right tackle, but has the skills to move to the left side, and that flexibility should be attractive to Dallas.
- Washington Redskins – Jake Locker (Quarterback/Washington). Yep, this is a reach. No, I wouldn’t do it. However, somebody is going to take Locker in the middle of the first round, and with Green and Jones off the board, I think the Shanahans will put their jobs in Locker’s hands.
- Houston Texans – Aldon Smith (Outside Linebacker/MIssouri). Smith has a lot of pass rush ability, but is young and raw. As a Texans fan, I’m not crazy about this pick, as the Texans need help immediately, and Smith may be a project. Amukamara is much more of a sure thing. However, the Texans can probably patch up their secondary in the second round and through free agency. Their biggest need, by far, is a pass rushing linebacker. If they can’t move up to get Miller or Quinn, Smith almost has to be their pick. We can take a corner when we’re picking in the top ten next season, and I’m pretty sure we will be.
- Minnesota Vikings – Nick Fairley (Defensive Tackle/Auburn). Minnesota’s defensive line is quickly going from being a veteran line to being an old one. It’s time to start rebuilding, which makes gambling on a quarterback here a possibility, but it’s hard to see Fairley falling much further.
- Detroit Lions – Prince Amukamara (Cornerback/Nebraska). The Lions’ war room will erupt with joy when Amukamara falls to them. Ndamukong Suh will be happy to welcome in his fellow Black Shirt.
- St. Louis Rams – Corey Liuget (Defensive Tackle/Illinois). The poor Rams are on the outside looking in here. They really could use Julio Jones, but they would have to trade up to get him. If Jones makes it to the Cowboys at nine, I could really see that trade going down. If they stay, Liuget would be a solid addition to their front seven. Ryan Kerrigan, or maybe even Da’Quan Bowers, could make sense, as well.
- Miami Dolphins – Mike Pouncey (Offensive Line/Florida). The local product is a very safe pick for the offensive line-minded Tony Sparano.
- Jacksonville Jaguars – Ryan Kerrigan (Defensive End/Purdue). The Jags can use help across the defense. Kerrigan doesn’t have spectacular upside, but should be a productive NFL defensive end.
- New England Patriots – J.J. Watt (Defensive End/Wisconsin). Probably not their biggest need, but New England has the luxury of taking the best player available, and many have Watt as one of the top ten prospects in the draft.
- San Diego Chargers – Cameron Jordan (Defensive End/California). I can’t even type San Diego without thinking of "a whale’s vagina." When in Rome, right? Cameron Jordan fills a need, and might just be the best player available. Plus, he is highly unlikely to take Dorothy Mantooth out to a nice seafood dinner and then never call her again.
- New York Giants – Mark Ingram (Running Back/Alabama). It has become very popular to push Ingram out of the first round, but I think somebody will take him in the back half of the first round. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are both just complimentary pieces. Ingram is an every-down back.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Da’Quan Bowers (Defensive End/Clemson). It wasn’t long ago that Bowers was considered a possibility as the first player taken overall. Questions about health and a poor workout have caused him to slip. However, I think the upside here is just too much to pass for one of the NFL’s biggest up-and-coming teams.
- Kansas City Chiefs – Anthony Costanzo (Offensive Tackle/Boston College). The consensus is that Chiefs need an offensive tackle. It is just a matter of who they have rated highest.
- Indianapolis Colts – Gabe Carimi (Offensive Tackle/Wisconsin). The Colts are also likely to take an offensive lineman with their first pick.
- Philadelphia Eagles – Jimmy Smith (Cornerback/Colorado). I’ve heard a lot of "experts" state that Smith might be the best pure cover corner in the NFL Draft. There are character concerns, but late in the first, you can gamble on that if you’re getting a top ten-ish talent.
- New Orleans Saints – Marvin Austin (Defensive Tackle/North Carolina). Marvin Austin has too much talent to not go in the first round.
- Seattle Seahawks – Ryan Mallett (Quarterback/Arkansas). Seattle is difficult to forecast, but there seems to be a lot of smoke about them selecting Matt Hasselbeck’s heir apparent. Mallett has bust written all over him. As Tipsy Gypsy told me the other day, he and Matt Jones will do their best to make sure a quarterback from Arkansas is never drafted in the NFL again, but I think somebody will take Mallett and his monster arm.
- Baltimore Ravens – Cameron Heyward (Defensive End/Ohio State). Honestly, I don’t like this pick, but there seems to be a consensus that Baltimore is excited about the son of the late "Ironhead."
- Atlanta Falcons – Justin Houston (Defensive End/Georgia). Houston’s positive drug test could scare teams off, but the Falcons need to add a defensive end. Unless they think Adrian Clayborn can play in their system, Houston makes the most sense.
- New England Patriots – Nate Solder (Offensive Tackle/Colorado). What are the odds the Patriots are actually picking here? I think it’s highly likely that somebody moves up to take a quarterback here, but if the Patriots stay, Solder seems like the best fit.
- Chicago Bears – Derek Sherrod (Offensive Tackle/Mississippi State). The Bears need to do a better job of protecting Jay Cutler. Sherrod has the size and feet to play left tackle.
- New York Jets – Phil Taylor (Defensive Tackle/Baylor). Kris Jenkins is probably done. Injury concerns have caused Taylor’s stock to slip a little, but guys of his girth are hard to find.
- Pittsburgh Steelers – Aaron Williams (Cornerback/Texas). I’m not certain if Williams is better as a corner or safety, but he’ll play right away for the Steelers.
- Green Bay Packers – Akeem Ayers (Linebacker/UCLA). Ayers also slipped a little due to a less than stellar workout, but he is a good football player and might be able to play any spot in Dom Capers’s 3-4.
Obviously, if it comes out in the next 24 hours or so that the Panthers are taking somebody other than Newton, I'll have to edit. There are going to be a bunch of trades that screw everything up, as well, but those are impossible to forecast, so this is my best guess. Criticize away.
Note: If I have time, I'll try to put up a second round forecast some time Friday after the first round dust has settled.
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As a Mizzou fan, nothing would make me happier than seeing Gabbert fall to San Francisco. Cincy is a death trap, and he’d get killed behind the Arizona line.
by Sheriff Blalock on Apr 27, 2011 2:30 PM CDT reply actions
At least in Arizona, he would have Fitzgerald at his disposal. He isn’t going there, though. Buffalo and Cincinnati are who you need to worry about if you like Gabbert. I don’t think he’ll fall any further than Tennessee.
by loopingstarship on Apr 27, 2011 2:46 PM CDT reply actions
I said this on another thread: Lots of smoke pouring out of Redskin’s offices about a potential trade up for a QB (supposedly Shanny has the hots for Locker). Since they have no 3 or 4 round picks to give, it’ll probably meaning giving away their existing 2nd, the 10 spot and probably a good pick or two from next year’s draft.
It’s funny, because the Redskin’s have so many needs, taking the best available will fill almost any spot on the roster.
by Bateshorn on Apr 27, 2011 3:04 PM CDT reply actions
heard some rumblings of Dalton sneaking in there, maybe even as high as #8 to Tenn.
Thoughts?
Clearly, a racist move….
by Von Kaiser on Apr 27, 2011 3:44 PM CDT reply actions
The Redskins shouldn’t have to move up to get Locker, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Bud Adams threw everybody a curveball at the eight spot and took him.
Bateshorn, you’re right…the Redskins really could just take the best player available. They’re terrible. They should be looking to trade back and add as many picks as they can.
by loopingstarship on Apr 27, 2011 3:51 PM CDT reply actions
Cincy – I hope Jones is the pick even if Green is available. Jones will be more effective in the short yardage passin game – specifically the underneath routes – and is also used to factoring in as a blocker on the edge.
S.F. – I think Gabbert is Andrew Luck lite so seeing him end up with Harbaugh would please me greatly.
Dal – I heard last night that Jones had never used a first round pick on an OL, but I think Smith is too good to pass up. I’m not as sold on Amukamara as others – his ball skills are way below average.
Texans – I think Smith gives them something as a rookie. It will be from a purely speed standpoint but over time I think he rounds into an all around player though he always be better going forward than backwards.
Titans – Are dead to me.
Minny – If Fairley falls all the way here there’s no way they can pass on him. It’s the absolutely ideal pick for them.
N.E. – Somehow one of the most talented teams in the league always seems to have either a lot of picks, or early ones. This year they have five in the first seventy five.
Pitt – A.J. here is intriguing especially with the possibility of Polamalu missing time due to his wreckless style of play. A career in Pitt almost guarantees he’ll be productive, plus he’s shown he has better hands than Limus.
G.B. – Akeem Ayers on the other side of Matthews could potentially mindfuck offensive lineman for years. Ayers plays much faster than he timed, but he’s still weak in coverage.
I like Ingram despite the knee concerns, but Leshoure might tempt me more.
While I’m a fan of Jake Locker, I wouldn’t draft him in the first round. I don’t care about his W/L in college, I care about his erratic accuracy.
by magnusbleuveigner on Apr 27, 2011 3:52 PM CDT reply actions
Von, I’ve heard that about Dalton, too. I’m not as high on Dalton as some…I think his ceiling at the next level is to be a Brad Johnson/Jon Kitna type. The eighth spot is just too high, but I could see some team like Washington or Cincinnati trading up from the second into the late first to get him.
by loopingstarship on Apr 27, 2011 3:53 PM CDT reply actions
Magnus, you may be right about Jones going ahead of Green. The consensus is that Green is a better prospect, but I’m sure at least a few teams have Jones rated higher.
by loopingstarship on Apr 27, 2011 3:56 PM CDT reply actions
magnus – you said cincy…you were talking about you’d rather cleveland get jones, even if green is on the board, right? just curious…
by Von Kaiser on Apr 27, 2011 4:00 PM CDT reply actions
Yeah, the other team in Ohio.
Dalton reminds me of Colt – AND JUST LIKE I TOLD THE WORLD LAST YEAR – don’t underestimate that type of player.
by magnusbleuveigner on Apr 27, 2011 4:05 PM CDT reply actions
The only good thing to come out of Vince’s nightmarish stint in Tennessee is that it’s dissolved this bullshit love affair that so many naive Longhorn fans developed overnight for the Titans.
Tried to tell them that Bud Adams would break their hearts into tiny little pieces, but they wouldn’t listen. WELL, WHO’S LAUGHING THE MANIACAL LAUGHTER OF THE DAMNED INFUSED WITH SOME MAKER’S MARK NOW?!?!!!!
by CrazyJoeDavola on Apr 27, 2011 4:23 PM CDT reply actions
Everyone is high on Dareus and Fairley and most likely, rightfully so. Based on the games I watched, I think Liuget has a higher ceiling than both.
by dedfischer on Apr 27, 2011 6:05 PM CDT reply actions
If Prince is there when the Texans draft there are freaking idiots if they let him pass. He is the closest thing they will find to a sure thing at their slot, he makes their entire secondary better by sliding in as their #1 corner, Jackson is their #2 which is better for him, and Quin is a solid #3.
Smith is unproven at the end and did most damage sliding inside which he won’t do in the NFL. They have reached too often with raw defensive linemen and they need to take someone who can play right away.
by Davey O'Brien on Apr 27, 2011 8:43 PM CDT reply actions
We’re hiring those guys for the first tailgate in September.
by Vasherized on Apr 27, 2011 10:00 PM CDT reply actions
Loop- many thanks for putting his together. Please do your round 2.
Brick- love the guy on the left. Is he security?
by Drew Dunlevie on Apr 27, 2011 10:28 PM CDT reply actions
I agree with Davey. If the Texans take another raw DE prospect, well, I won’t be surprised. Of course it won’t work out either. But they’ll find a 6th round white TE from the Big 10 with great hands.
by Toadvine on Apr 28, 2011 7:40 AM CDT reply actions
I disagree with both of you. Smith is going to be a 3-4 OLB whose primary concern – while he physically matures – will be to rush the passer. They’re not drafting him to play 5 tech. He has quickness and displayed two years ago that he can rush from the edge. His first step will have to be accounted for. Or do you guys think Cushing and Barwin coming off of a devastating injury will provide the necessary rush?
First year corners get roasted – though Kareem Jackson took that to an all-time high. Obviously we need secondary help but I’d rather see them grab a corner when free agency opens up.
In my opinion you sure up the pass rush first. I would take Miller over Peterson in a heartbeat if we were drafting in the top 3.
Part of my line of thinking is that I don’t like Amukamara at corner – I think he’s a safety. Plus he has terrible ball skills. We already had Jaques Reeves once.
Both have got to be addressed though, for sure.
by magnusbleuveigner on Apr 28, 2011 8:01 AM CDT reply actions
First year corners in bad schemes. Hell any corner that isn’t pre-knee injury Dante for the Texans has gotten destroyed.
I think agree that the Texans need help at both postions. Shit, the Texans need help at almost every position on defense be it nose, anywhere at linebacker, and in the secondary.
The biggest problem is that at 11 they just can not risk taking a guy who isn’t a sure thing. They have wasted too much money on defensive players early in the draft who never have done a damn thing and they just can’t do that any more. Smith is raw and while I think he has more upside I think he is a bigger risk.
My bigger concern is Rick Smith and Gary Kubiak filling in the rest of the defense with later picks. He just hasn’t shown that ability which is why they have so little quality on the defensive side of the ball.
by Davey O'Brien on Apr 28, 2011 8:53 AM CDT reply actions
It’s a weird draft in that some of the GM’s seem hellbent on spending first round picks on things that are weaknesses in this draft: namely QB. None of the QB’s strike me as early first round material (well Mallet has the talent, but where there’s smoke….), but we could see as many as 5 gone before the 20th pick. Tyron Smith to the Left? Really? How often has a college RT made the transition to the other side?
I’ve never seen one so heavy in DL of all variety (including rush OLB’s), and generally thin everywhere else.
by Bateshorn on Apr 28, 2011 9:58 AM CDT reply actions
Take Prince #1 and then come back and take Acho in the second.
by Davey O'Brien on Apr 28, 2011 10:19 AM CDT reply actions
I had a friend from Colorado tell me how lucky we are to have Kubiak and we just don’t know it, and how all Texans fans are just irrational. He went on to mention great accomplishments of Kubiak’s like Amobye. If he wasn’t my friend, I would have hit him in the jaw.
by ut-06 on Apr 28, 2011 10:35 AM CDT reply actions
Kubiak is what he is and that is a very good offensive co-ordinator. He knows offensive talent, he has developed a good offense, he has no fucking clue what an NFL defensive player looks like nor how to motivate a team.
by Davey O'Brien on Apr 28, 2011 10:41 AM CDT reply actions
That’s pretty much what I said. He then went on to say it was the players, not the coach. We could easily have won 5 more games. The coach put us in position to win, the players just didn’t execute. I really almost hit him.
by ut-06 on Apr 28, 2011 10:51 AM CDT reply actions
I was just drunk enough when the Texans made that pick last night that I could kinda just laugh about it. J.J. Watt? Really? You have both Robert Quinn and Prince Amukamara available, both of whom play tremendous positions of need, and you take a fucking five technique? Whatever, we suck.
Now, I’m sober-ish and just amazed how awful that pick was. Don’t misunderstand me…Watt is a good football player. He just doesn’t help the team that much.
Granted, we have a lot of draft picks left, and free agency will start as soon as the 8th Circuit denies the NFL’s appeal. However, we all know the Texans are very unlikely to do anything that matters.
The good news, as I see it, is that I now have no delusions about the Texans being relevant next season. We have a brutal schedule, and we apparently aren’t going to do anything to upgrade the roster. I’m guessing we will win four to six games next year and will be picking in the top five with a competent coach and general manager.
Yep, I’m already looking forward to next season’s draft. We’re that bad.
by loopingstarship on Apr 29, 2011 9:16 AM CDT reply actions
why must we fail at every attempt of masonry?
at least we should have a decent player staring at us pretty early in the 2nd round tonight. not that we’ll take him. We’ll probably go QB…..
by Von Kaiser on Apr 29, 2011 9:58 AM CDT reply actions

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