Dallas/Oklahoma City: The Age Gap

by tjarks on May 16, 2011 3:19 PM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Basketball

In the second round, the Dallas Mavericks embarrassed the two-time defending champions and swept them out of the playoffs. The Oklahoma City Thunder, meanwhile, were taken to seven games in a bizarre, back-and-forth series by the #8 seed.

Neither outcome will have much of an effect on the Western Conference Finals.

The NBA playoffs are about match-ups, not momentum. How a player plays in a series depends primarily on whose guarding him, not who was guarding him last week.

In 2009, the Cleveland Cavaliers rampaged to the Eastern Conference Finals, winning their first eight games by an average margin of 16.75 points. The Orlando Magic dropped two first-rounds games to a 41-win Philadelphia team before eking out a seven-game victory against a Boston Celtics team playing without Kevin Garnett.

But Cleveland had been dominating two teams (the Detroit Pistons and the Atlanta Hawks) without much of an interior presence. Their centers couldn't handle Dwight Howard on offense, while Howard prevented LeBron from dominating the lane, and the Magic stunned the Cavs in six games.

There is no transitive property in the NBA.

The next year the script was reversed, with the Magic sweeping their first two playoff series before playing the Celtics, who won two hard-fought series against one-man teams in Cleveland and Miami.

But Boston had centers who could defend Dwight Howard without a double-team, preventing Orlando's shooters from getting open looks, while their roster of veteran jump-shooters were unaffected by Howard's shot-blocking process. They won the first two games in Orlando, and the series was over before it had even really begun.

So how do Oklahoma City and Dallas match-up?

It's somewhat hard to say, because these two rosters haven't played each other so neither coach has had the opportunity to make adjustments.

The Thunder went 1-2 against the Mavs this year, but all three games happened before they traded for Kendrick Perkins and moved Serge Ibaka into the starting line-up. Dallas had Caron Butler in the first game, lost Dirk Nowitzki to a bizarre knee injury in the second and was playing with a severely depleted line-up in the third.

Dirk and Kevin Durant, both super-sized jump-shooters, should have big series.

Dirk should have made first-team All-NBA over Durant.

After battling long, athletic big men like who could move their feet, like LaMarcus Aldridge and Lamar Odom, in the first two rounds, Dirk has a much easier match-up against the Thunder.

None of their top four big men -- Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, Nazr Mohammed and Nick Collison -- are suited to chasing a seven-footer twenty feet from the basket. Ibaka, their best physical match-up, is still a very raw shot-blocker, and Dirk should have no problem pump-faking and getting open looks on him.

And none of the Mavericks' forwards are even in the same ball-park defensively as Tony Allen, who has taken on the mantle of Bruce Bowen and Ron Artest as the league's best perimeter defender after battling Wade, LeBron, Kobe, Manu and Durant in consecutive playoffs for Boston and Memphis.

Five years ago, Shawn Marion, Dallas' only true small forward since Caron Butler's injury, would have posed a challenge for Durant. But after just turning 33, his foot-speed isn't what it once was, and he doesn't have the strength to push Durant off his spots and prevent him from catching the ball like Allen and Shane Battier.

The series will be decided on the perimeter, where Oklahoma City has a decided advantage. At the end of games, Dallas uses Jason Kidd, 38, and Jason Terry, 33. Neither has a prayer of staying in front of Russell Westbrook, who is sixteen years younger than Kidd.

** Caron Butler had a son at 15. Kidd is old enough to literally be Westbrook's father. **

Even worse, neither player has much of a chance at defending James Harden individually either. Harden, a 21-year old 6'5 220 shooting guard, was the X-factor for the Thunder against Memphis, and he could have an even bigger series against the Mavericks. When Oklahoma City goes Westbrook/Harden/Durant at the end of games, Dallas has only one player in their late-game line-up -- Marion -- with a prayer of guarding any of them.

Harden has All-Star talent.

JJ Barea's ability to penetrate to the rim was the difference maker for Dallas against the Lakers; I'm not sure how he gets on the court against the Thunder.

Dallas will have to either play their offensively-challenged defensive stoppers -- DeShawn Stevenson and Corey Brewer -- or do something drastic. My guess is Rick Carlisle will use a lot of zone in this series, especially when Thabo Sefolosha is on the floor.

They might try to copy Memphis' strategy in Game 6, when the Grizzlies centers shadowed Durant and Westbrook on the court, essentially ignoring the Thunder's offensively inept big men. Besides Durant, none of Oklahoma City's main perimeter players are reliable long-distance shooters, so a steady diet of zone might force Scott Brooks to insert Eric Maynor and Daequan Cook, two guys Dallas' older guards can actually defend.

If there was ever a time to dust off a box-and-one, with Marion shadowing Durant while the rest of the Mavs stay in a zone, it's in this series.

Dallas' best chance might be in the intangibles, as the Mavericks are one of the oldest and most experienced teams in the NBA while the Thunder are the youngest. If playoff experience matters, Dallas has the edge.

I don't think it really does, which is why I think Oklahoma City will beat Dallas in six games.

Correction: Dallas went 2-1 against OKC in the regular season.

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The Thunder were 1-2 against Dallas this year, not 2-1. The Mavs won both games in OKC while the Thunder took the one game in Dallas. Dirk didn’t play in the Thunder win.

Not surprised you predict the Thunder in six as you didn’t give the Mavs much of a chance against LA. Mavs in six. If it goes to a seventh game they should play the game outdoors at the Cotton Bowl.

by Art Vandelay on May 16, 2011 3:39 PM CDT reply actions

tjarks -

Great stuff.

1. I believe the Mavs actually won the regular season series 2-1.

2. I see an opportunity for both Nazr Mohammed and Daequan Cook to play a role in this series, if they’re up for it. Mohammed is the most gifted OKC big man offensively and he might force Dallas to abandon using Chandler or Haywood as Durant’s spot shadow in some key minutes. Similarly, Cook can spread the floor if he’ll nail a couple of open 3s.

3. Love the OKC over Dallas prediction. Almost every prognosticator I’ve read has the Mavericks. It’s defensible to think the Mavs take this series with experience and a home court advantage, but as I mentioned in a reply in my thread to Ag-in-TX, there have been many instances in the NBA where young teams have knocked down the door well before the media and basketball establishment deems them ready.

4. Evaluating one-on-one matchups in handicapping Dallas-OKC is very deceiving when it comes to the Mavs on the defensive end as the Mavericks have a particular genius for playing team defense with the zone principles you mentioned. Chandler is obviously huge in defending the rim, but it would be hard to describe any other Mav starter as a good defender individually. Collectively, their team defense is really sound.

by Scipio Tex on May 16, 2011 3:41 PM CDT reply actions

Art — Good catch. I completely forgot the Mavs ended up winning that game in OKC after Dirk’s injury.

Scipio — That’s a good point about Perkins. There’s really no need to play him in this series; the Mavs don’t have any traditional low-post scorers, and he looks like an old man running around on one knee out there at times. Dallas is almost going to have to go zone, which should mean a lot of minutes for Collison/Mohammed, who are better passers/shooters than the Thunder’s starting bigs.

by tjarks on May 16, 2011 4:07 PM CDT reply actions

Tjarks -

Great write up, thanks for putting it together. One point that jumped out to me that Scipio touches on is Dallas’s team defense. Ranked #3 in the reg season at giving up 88.2 per, they help well and Chandler is a solid presence at the rack. Individual matchups def matter but stats like these can’t be discounted.

I find myself in the same shoes as I bet a lot on this blog do… a lifelong Mavs fan that wants to see Dirk finally get his, but a gigantic KD fan that would be ok if his Thundar advanced. Weird, but at the same time the West couldn’t have worked out any better from a fandom standpoint.

I think in the end Dirk’s play and the Jet’s late game onions lead them through in 6.

by Dude on May 16, 2011 4:58 PM CDT reply actions

I do not see it at all. For long stretches OKC looked miserable in the half court – almost Rick Barnes-esque at times.

This smacks of blind Kevin Durant homerism.

by Newy25 on May 16, 2011 4:58 PM CDT reply actions

I think J Kidd will make or break this series for the Mavs, because like you said it’s hard to see Barea getting on the court w/these matchups. Kidd has to make some outside shots, limit his TO’s and generally avoid some of the carelessness he displayed in the Portland series. I think he’s underrated as a defender but that said Westbrook is going to score against anyone.

What a great series – I can’t wait.

by trkhorn on May 16, 2011 5:10 PM CDT reply actions

Newy:

A lot of that was Memphis’ perimeter defense. You’re not going to find a better duo than Allen and Battier anywhere.

Rough analogy: If your QB has only one WR, and the other team has Darrelle Revis, he’s going to like look a dick a lot of times, running around the pocket and forcing throws because no one’s open.

Also as someone who only wagers for “recreational purposes” … http://getbuckets.fantake.com/2011/02/17/dallas-mavericks-1600-to-win-the-nba-title/ … that Dallas 16:1 bet back in February … yea I’m rooting for the Mavs pretty hard.

by tjarks on May 16, 2011 5:11 PM CDT reply actions

And the Lakers have Ron Artest and Kobe Bryant who are better than any two defenders on Memphis.

I think depth ultimately wins out. Durant will get his 30+ and Westbrook will make plays. To me that is given.

by Newy25 on May 16, 2011 5:52 PM CDT reply actions

Newy -

You appear to be arguing for Artest and Kobe in their respective primes. Neither is anywhere near there.

by Scipio Tex on May 16, 2011 6:56 PM CDT reply actions

Mavs will win. And it will be a short series. And as much as we all know Dallas is the better team its not because of that. Westbrook will shoot OKC out of this series. That common knowledge and even the biggest Durant homers have to see it comeing. Westbrook actually handicaps Durant, I cant even imagine what he would be like with a true point guard. Age will have nothing to do with this which you said but then alluded to in the otherwise brilliant write up.

by Mysterious Package on May 16, 2011 7:03 PM CDT reply actions

Maybe I just watched the Memphis/OKC series differently. At times the play looked so GD awful I had to turn the channel. Just did not see good basketball for several games in that series. OKC still has serious issues in the half court offense.

If Westbrook decides he is going to take Dallas on off the dribble I like the Mavs winning in 5 or 6 games.

by Newy25 on May 16, 2011 8:31 PM CDT reply actions

Dirk’s sphincter might tighten up at crunch time. Wouldn’t be a first.

by Frank the Plank on May 17, 2011 2:38 AM CDT reply actions

Great stuff, tjarks.

I can’t remember the last time I’ve flip-flopped so much on a series, I just have no idea how this one plays out. As you mention, individually and athletically, it’s no contest – the Thunder can exploit at least 3 matchups as often as they desire. But they also can’t stop Dirk. And it’s not a 1-on-1 game…and Dallas is the only team that has consistently executed in crunch time during these playoffs.

The best news… there is not a single Finals matchup that doesn’t thrill me and I wouldn’t see going 7.

by Hiphopopotamus on May 17, 2011 9:57 AM CDT reply actions

As I was reading this post, I kept thinking box-and-one. Not sure if I had seen that somewhere and it was subliminal, or what. I still think Dallas has no chance of containing Durant, and OKC has no chance of containing Dirk. It’s what happens at the other 4 spots on the court that could dictate the series. Whatever the outcome, it sure will be fun.

by jc25 on May 17, 2011 2:02 PM CDT reply actions

Does Westbrook shoot too much? Yes. Is that bad? Yes.

by Mysterious Package on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM CDT reply actions

Frank the Plank said:
May 17th, 2011 at 12:38 am

“Dirk’s sphincter might tighten up at crunch time. Wouldn’t be a first.”

Frank – you don’t watch much NBA basketball, huh? Mavs may have lost some playoff series they shouldn’t have, but it wasn’t because of Dirk. Dirk is only one of 4 players in NBA history that has averaged over 25 points and 10 rebounds in the playoffs. The other 3:

- Hakeem Olajuwon
- Bob Pettit
- Elgin Baylor

Names not on the list: Wilt, Kareem, Bill Russell, Bird, Barkely, Karl Malone, etc, etc….

by Art Vandelay on May 17, 2011 7:30 PM CDT reply actions

JJ Barea’s ability to penetrate to the rim was the difference maker for Dallas against the Lakers; I’m not sure how he gets on the court against the Thunder.

lol

by Nacho on May 17, 2011 10:34 PM CDT reply actions

Every time Westbrook decides to create his own shot defense becomes easy. Durant needs more help on offense or his own Jason Terry.

by Newy25 on May 17, 2011 10:50 PM CDT reply actions

I guess nobody told Barea about the unfavorable matchups. On the other hand, the Mavs completely squandered his output w/wretched defense during that whole stretch. The guy who should have never seen the court tonite was Peja.

Some other game 1 observations:

The horrendous calls on Chandler could have been a huge factor but the Thunder squandered the advantage by recklessly fouling Dirk in the 3rd. If Chandler keeps getting the dick end of calls in this series it will definitely cost the Mavs a game or two. If I’m Brooks I send Durant/Westbrook straight at him early and often.

The Mavs were lucky that Westbrook laid an egg tonight because Kidd did next to nothing.

If Dirk keeps playing this way nothing else will matter much. The Thunder have to double w/Chandler/Haywood/Kidd’s man and make those guys beat you. But you can’t send him to the line 24 times.

The Western side of the bracket has been infinitely more enjoyable than the East. This should be another entertaining series even if it doesn’t go seven.

by trkhorn on May 17, 2011 11:18 PM CDT reply actions

I see the Thunder needing to accomplish two theoretically simple things in order to win this series:

1) Run a more balanced offense that makes Dallas have to defend both Durant and Westbrook

and, more importantly—much, MUCH more importantly:

2) Limit to Dirk to closer to 30/gm than 50/gm.

I sincerely believe that, if they do those two things, they win this series despite tonight’s game.

Objective #2 seems the more difficult of the two to accomplish.

Having been Hakeem’s teammate during those years, Brooks may be trying to employ the “we’re gonna let him get his” approach. Certainly worked for the Sonics most of the time.

by Young Williams on May 18, 2011 12:50 AM CDT reply actions

How was Dirk’s sphincter last night? That was only one of the greatest shooting performances in NBA playoff history. I hope to God the Mavs win the title b/c it might, just might, finally shut up all the idiots about Dirk being overrated, a choker, soft, etc. etc. The guy is one of the greatest to ever play the game.

And how about JJ Barea? Seems like maybe he can find a spot on the court against OKC after all? He did anything he fucking wanted to last night.

by burnt orange outrage on May 18, 2011 12:28 PM CDT reply actions

Westbrook: 3-15! Why can some people not see the most obvious. This will happen in every game but one

by Mysterious Package on May 18, 2011 1:48 PM CDT reply actions

Yea you would think eliminating the defending champions on their home court in Game 7 by hitting an and-1 with less than :10 seconds left, and then following that up with a 50-point performance in the Western Conference Finals would have convinced people he’s not a “choke artist” … confirmation bias I guess is to blame for that one.

Barea’s offense is what really ought to concern OKC. Dirk’s going to get his, pretty much nothing you can do about that, but there’s no reason Barea should be getting 21 points in only 16 minutes of action, especially against the Thunder’s back-court.

by tjarks on May 18, 2011 3:30 PM CDT reply actions

Impressive bounce-back for OKC last night. Going to be a fun series.

Thoughts on the fourth quarter lineup?

by Hiphopopotamus on May 20, 2011 8:00 AM CDT reply actions

My thoughts are that Young Williams pretty much nailed it above.

by Young Williams on May 20, 2011 4:36 PM CDT reply actions

Got an article over at RealGM about the Thunder’s Game 2 moves — http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/213799/How_Oklahoma_City_Successfully_Made_Their_Game_2_Adjustments

Everyone’s talking about Westbrook, but just as important was them going small w/only one big man in the game. Dallas has two possible counters going into Game 3: have Chandler attack the offensive boards (like he did when Portland tried this in Round 1) and keep Barea in the game as long as Maynor is in.

Big picture: Dirk and Durant are getting their numbers. The key stat is the scoring of Westbrook/Harden vs. Terry/Barea. Game 1: 32-45, Game 2: 41-19.

by tjarks on May 21, 2011 12:06 PM CDT reply actions

Here’s another fascinating article I just read on the whole Westbrook thing.

You have to be an insider, but…

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2011/insider/news/story?id=6573141

Seems to me that getting Collison in foul trouble would do Dallas a world of good. He’s +20.3 points per 100 possessions for the playoffs. Nowitzki going to the rack, imo.

I’m kind of expecting Westbrook to go apeshit and have a monster game tonight, but it’s quite possible he’ll just go apeshit in a bad way.

I think, now that Dallas’ bubble of invincibility has been burst, this series is going to be a war the rest of the way.

by Young Williams on May 21, 2011 6:50 PM CDT reply actions

Young — That was an interesting article. For those who can’t read it, the point the author was making is that two of OKC’s starters (Sefolosha and Perkins) are really giving them nothing, especially in comparison to their back-ups — Harden and Collison.

Both starters are defensive specialists, but the Mavs don’t really start threats at the center and shooting guard positions, so they’re not offering much value on the court. If OKC falls behind in the series again, I wouldn’t be surprise if Brooks changes his starting line-up — they need another shooter in their starting five.

by tjarks on May 21, 2011 7:46 PM CDT reply actions

tjarks is auditioning for a job as a Thunder beat writer.

I’ll go out on a limb. OKC wins tonight and Mavs win the next three. Mavs in 6 as I said before the series started.

What concerns me is the officiating. I’m sure I’ll take flak for this but every NBA team gets home cooking. Every team except one…. the Mavericks. It’s uncanny. “But wait Art…. Dirk gets all types of calls!” Yes… but it took 10 years of All-Star, All NBA and MVP level play before he got the respect from the refs. I love Durant, but he is an NBA prepubescent and he gets a call if someone thinks bad thoughts about his backpack.

by Art Vandelay on May 21, 2011 8:09 PM CDT reply actions