Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Following UFC 146 Loss, Jason 'Mayhem' Miller 'Done' in UFC

NBA Finals stakes

NBA:

Some of you may have noticed I was fairly off in my predictions for the Conference finals. If you didn't read that piece, do you remember which teams lost the series while only winning 1 game apiece? Those are the teams I picked to win.

One of my more egregious mistakes was in saying that the Thunder could bother Nowitzki and shut everyone else down on the Mavericks with their athleticism and ability to contest 3 pt. jumpers. 30 points from Nowitzki would not be enough to guarantee Dallas success, I wrote.

Well, if a guy scores 30 points on 15 shots or less, that kind of efficiency is going to murder you. Especially if it takes place in the 4rth quarter after 3 quarters of competitive play. The Mavericks team defense and firm team-ball offensive identity made them miles more assertive and confident than the Thunder in the 4rth quarter and that's how all those comeback victories were managed.

Identity is one of remaining obstacles for this OKC team before they can ascend to the level of NBA Champions and it starts with Durant. The Durantula does not yet understand how he can truly excel in this game.

He has one of the highest standing reaches in the game, can finish around the rim, makes his free throws, and can nail catch and shoot jump shots from anywhere on the court. Somehow he has concluded that his best offense comes from trying to take guys off the dribble from the perimeter and then setting for pull-up jumpers.

Even the best shooters don't make a high percentage of those shots and they do not often result in free throw shots. Derrick Rose did the same thing to a far greater extent and ruined the Bulls shooting less than 30% in the final 2 games while taking nearly 60 shots and maybe 15 free throws.
Kobe Bryant seems to have taught the rest of the league that the way to become a successful offensive player is to master the shot that everyone wants you to take and it is a recipe for low-scoring and boring basketball.

Durant should be finishing plays like Ray Allen, catching the ball off curls and screens and then shooting. He needs to take Dirk Nowitzki-high post game 101 this summer and learn how his face-up jumper and length can result in efficient offense. Watching him continue to attempt to take faster players off the dribble rather than backing them down and burying them with high-percentage shots and free throws is going to drive me crazy. This, along with some growth from young Westbrook, would take the Thunder to the next level.

Now Dirk and Lebron have a lot at stake for them in what story our modern mythwriters are going to tell about them. For Dirk, his status as a top 15 player of all time seems to be in question while Lebron is expected to win multiple titles with Wade to be considered a serious challenger to Jordan.

For those of us who can consider these matters untarnished by winning bias, there are different considerations for these two superstars in this very appealing finals matchup.

Dirk Nowizki, for a 7 footer, is an unspectacular rebounder and defender. In two of the departments in which you would expect an athlete with such physical advantages to excel he offers maybe average production. That said, he may be the most efficient scorer of his time and amongst the all-time greats. His ability to score in the high post is unmatched by anyone else in the game right now and when paired with his 3 pt. shooting, free throw percentage, and passing ability it makes him the most terrifying offensive option in the league.

Lebron James has a chance to make his case now as one of the 3 greatest players of all time, if he can guard Dirk as he did with Rose late in games, and stop the German. The King's ability to defend perimeter scorers, make weakside blocks, and ruin fast-break offense is an underrated element of his game. On that end of the court, he is maximizing the possibilities of his phenomenal athletic advantages.

I think he could stand to develop a high-post game as well, although at least his drives get him to the free throw line, but should he demolish Dirk after exposing the MVP that would make for a legendary playoff run.

As for this series, don't forget Jason Kidd, who has dominated games without scoring a lot, and Tyson Chandler who will be the strongest inside presence the finals. On the other side, the contributions of Haslem and Mike Miller push the Heat over the top into a massive juggernaut when they play well. Their health and success in this series should make for a Heat victory. Otherwise, it's anybody's game.

Crack-baby Athletic Association:

Great preview of the the Aggies that Sailor already linked, beating them is going to be a tall order and it's probably best for your enjoyment of next season if you pencil in that game and the RRS as losses. Not to say we couldn't win either, but if you count on it...

What terrified me in that article was that Aggies didn't mount a particularly effective pass-rush last season. What? You could read that in 3 ways: One, that without Von Miller they will be totally inept at getting to the quarterback. Two, that their growth as a young defense in the 3-4 already had to overcome a weak rush anyways so losing him doesn't sting. Three, Von Miller wasn't that great.

I'm going to go ahead and reject number three and postulate that if Miller's seasonal impact wasn't what you would expect that this is only because he was injured early in the season. Given that the Aggies do have some young talent coming up on the DL and at OLB I'm leaning towards number 2; the Aggies are going to grow a lot on defense this year and will no longer require Miller to cover up their lack of playmaking talent in getting to the QB.

While the Aggies offensive improvement is truly disgusting to me, what really concerns me is the prospects of long-term defensive ascendancy under DeyRuter. We need someone to snatch him up as soon as possible. A Big 12 in which we combat OU AND A&M for defensive supremacy is a dark world in which I would rather not fumble for light. Pray that we keep winning recruiting battles for the likes of Malcolm Brown because the defensive line gap is one of the major factors in keeping our Cold War with OU a 2-superpower contest.

Who will save my little boy? From Oppenheimer's deadly toy?...What may save us me and you is if the Russians love their children too..

Comment 14 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Von made himself a lot of money coming back for his senior season. As a rush DE he got a lot of sacks, and over ran a lot of plays. The Joker position in the 3-4 really optimzed his skill set. He did have some ankle issues early in the year and that affected his overall numbers. Where he really developed was in his coverage drops and sniffing out those 30 bubble screens a game. He was pretty brutal blowing those up, which really helped in the OU game.

As for the coming season, on offense we turn over about 20% of the plays each year and I expect Sherman to find ways to get both Cyrus and Christine on the field at the same time. He is also going to move Fuller around to create mismatches. We have pretty good receiver depth and should see Nate Askew gets some reps this season. I expect us to start out much better than last season on O and should have a pretty good running game. Tannehill can spin it pretty well and is a pretty accurate passer on the short to intermediate routes.

On D, we have a good 2 deep on the DL and hope that Lemarc Strahan gives us some good reps at NT. We won’t be sure if he is qualified until the 2nd summer session but he is on track they say. We have had good luck with Blinn guys recently so if he plays at all like his cousin that would be a bonus, especially for 2012. ILB continues to be the spot where someone needs to step up. We have a lot guys lining up, but we won’t really know what we have until we play somebody decent. I think we are good at the 2 OLB positions, and Von has been a real saleman for the job. Secondary should be good if they all heal. Punting should be much improved with the freshman from Ohio. We’ll be a tough game for you in College Station this year. By that time, your team will have gelled or there will be a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth in the Longhorn interwebs.

by KilgoreTrout on May 29, 2011 7:12 PM CDT reply actions  

One thing that’s really killing me is how the Dallas media is portraying the series. On the front page of the Morning News today, the headline was “a Maverick victory would be a win for the forces of traditional morality.”

You would think they’re about to face off against the Taliban or something.

by tjarks on May 29, 2011 8:44 PM CDT reply actions  

Man, tjarks, that’s ridiculous.

I never knew that NBA players choosing where they want to play based on winning was A). wildly abnormal and B). an unspeakable evil.

The worst you can say about Lebron morally from “the decision” is that he didn’t show great sensitivity towards his fans in cleveland in the way he chose his team in free agency. So, he wasn’t especially sensitive to how people in cleveland feel about a freaking basketball game. This is the kind of ridiculous crap that makes me hope the Heat take the finals for the next 10 years.

by Nickel Rover on May 29, 2011 9:50 PM CDT reply actions  

I’m hoping this series goes like The ‘95 Rockets/Magic series that Orlando was supposed to dominate. What no one is pointing out is how bad Miami’s offensive execution is compared to Dallas’. Will the refs bail out LeBron and Wade by calling fouls on Chandler and Haywood just for putting their hands up? That will be the difference in the series IMO.

by trk1967 on May 29, 2011 9:51 PM CDT reply actions  

this is why I hate Miami. I’m preparing to see more of this…

by kemit on May 29, 2011 10:28 PM CDT reply actions  

Nickel Rover —

I think this Bill Simmons article (written in March) sums up why a lot of people “hate” Miami:

And that’s what this Miami season has been — a four-month-long comeuppance, a vindication that you can’t stack your team without thinking it through, that role players matter, that coaching matters, that even the most talented basketball teams need a pecking order. Miami tried to cheat the system. It didn’t work. Teams came roaring at them for four straight months — night after night, a bull’s-eye draped on their backs that never went away — and, eventually, Miami started to wear down. It’s possible to play playoff games for nine straight months, but only with a deep team. You can’t do it with three guys.

Or maybe their success shows us that life is more like Rocky I than Rocky II: maybe no matter how hard you work, how deeply you want to win, how much you deserve it … if your average boxer steps into the ring against Apollo Creed, he’s getting his face smashed in.

by tjarks on May 30, 2011 2:03 AM CDT reply actions  

Nice, I was interested when Simmons wrote his column on how Wade and James could never work together 3 weeks into the season or whenever that was. Really? If you can’t build team chemistry in less than a season you never will?

Everyonce in a while Simmons hits on a deep truth of basketball and then immediately ignores it with his next argument.

by Nickel Rover on May 30, 2011 2:17 AM CDT reply actions  

Hopefully you were referring to ‘second half of the 2010-2011 season’ Dirk as a below-average rebounder, since ‘career’ Dirk is one of four guys in league history to average 25 and 10 in a playoff career. Very solid read on his offensive efficiency – this is where I thought he was heading after 2006 when he first started dominating with his high post/elbow game, but he seemed to get away from it after a parade of marginally talented role players (Haslem, Matt Barnes, etc.) were allowed to body the absolute fuck out of him in the playoffs with no calls.

by nobis60 on May 30, 2011 8:58 AM CDT reply actions  

trk begins the Mavs mantra, “The only way we lose is if the refs will it to be so.”

by Young Williams on May 30, 2011 3:48 PM CDT reply actions  

Nah I’m not even a Mavs fan first and foremost(live in SA). It’s just the reality of the NBA. NBA refs = Pavlov’s dog… the star players figured that out a long time ago, and the lapdog commentators pretty much go with the flow. Just calling it like I see it.

by trkhorn on May 30, 2011 7:34 PM CDT reply actions  

trkhorn — The Spurs beat Nash/Amare and LeBron in ‘07. Don’t see how the Spurs win four titles if ref bias is merely a matter of whom the NBA wants to promote.

by tjarks on May 30, 2011 7:44 PM CDT reply actions  

Here’s another good one from the Star-Telegram today:

The LeBronathon with its megalomania, hubris and grammatically suspect euphemisms was wrong on so many levels. But at its very core it was also dangerous, carrying the seeds to destroy the very thing we love about sports.

The history of every sports championship up until now is the history of athletes melding together in pursuit of a common purpose. LeBron James is in danger of ruining that, and thereby must be stopped from winning a championship.

This is not simply Mavs v. Heat. This is the ideal of sport.

We are all Cleveland. This is absolutely our fight.

by tjarks on May 31, 2011 3:52 PM CDT reply actions  

tj,

You’re missing my point entirely. I’ll give you tonight’s example of Shawn Marion, a minor star, posting up Mike Miller, an also-ran.

NBA ref-think: Because Shawn Marion is better than Mike Miller, and Mike Miller is basically overmatched in the post, it becomes a foregone conclusion that a foul will be called on Miller when there is contact, despite the fact that Marion is creating it “battering-ram” style as Van Gundy pointed out. Good for him by the way, the other hack announcer actually said “That’s a good call.” It was an absurd call. Miller might have actually fouled him on the shot, but only after Marion literally knocked the shit out of him.

This phenomenon doesn’t always swing games or series, but it defininitely sucks.

And as for Game 1, the Mavs screwed themselves tonight. If Barea, Peja & Terry can’t contribute anything in the 2nd half, it’s going to be a short series.

by trkhorn on May 31, 2011 11:14 PM CDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

An SB Nation blog mostly about the Texas Longhorns.

Managers

Archer_290_small Scipio Tex

Bc_logo_257x257_small Sailor Ripley

Editors

Nobis_small nobis60

Link2_small BrickHorn

Propeller_helmet_small Huck L Berry

Picture_016_small srr50

Boyd_small Vasherized

Justified-olyphant_small jc25

Billlittle0_small Fake Ken Tremendous

Authors

Williams_ranger_dugout_small WWMcClyde

Jonathan_tjarks_small tjarks

Small ColoradoAg

Long_illustrated_beard_small LonghornScott

Small Nickel Rover

Small John Kocurek

Thumbnail_small Drew Kelson

Barker Emeritus

Tn_homeimage7_small Parlin

220px-henry_james_by_john_singer_sargent_cleaned_small HenryJames

Small Doperbo