NBA Draft Open Thread

by tjarks on Jun 19, 2011 10:14 PM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Basketball

The 2011 Draft, held this Thursday, is the first victim of the contentious CBA negotiations between the NBA and the Player's Association. Fearing the opportunity cost of a missed season, most of college basketball's top prospects returned to school, reversing a decade-long trend.

That should produce one of the most compelling college hoops seasons in a long-time, as Kentucky and UNC in particular have squads where every starter is a potential first-rounder, if not a lottery pick. If the recruiting reports are accurate, Kentucky has more pure talent on its roster than most of the NBA.

** That being said, Baylor's Perry Jones has a chance to be better than all of them. **

But in the mean-time, it leaves an uninspiring draft class. 2011 might come to resemble 2000, which had Kenyon Martin as the #1 overall pick, Mike Miller as the Rookie of the Year and produced no consistent All-Stars.

null The Sure Things:

Good luck in Cleveland.

It's a two-man list, and there are serious questions about whether either will be an All-NBA type player.

Kyrie Irving: He's a five-tool point guard, but he doesn't have the type of video game athleticism -- Rose, Westbrook, Wall, Rondo -- that's re-defining the position. Chris Paul is the only All-Star point guard his size (6'2 180 with a 6'4 wingspan) without it, and I'm hesitant to compare anyone's floor game and basketball IQ with Paul's, much less a freshman who played in only a dozen games last year. He could have a career similar to Ray Felton, and while Felton's a good player, that's not much for a #1 overall pick.

** I'd rather have Jrue Holiday (UCLA / Philadelphia), who went #17 in 2009. **

Derrick Williams: He's a great athlete at 6'8 240 with highlight-reel dunking ability and an excellent outside shot (shooting 58% from beyond the arc this season), but he doesn't really have a defensive position and he's not a great shot-creator, either off the dribble or in the post. To maximize his ability, he'll need to play with a good point guard and a center who can get his back defensively.

null The International Men of Mystery:

Biyombo has the most upside in the draft.

The international players are easily the strength of this draft, and while projecting the transition from playing overseas is never easy, it's going to be particularly difficult with this group. The GM who drafts these guys is either going to look like a genius or a fool in a few years.

Bismack Biyombo: An absolute physical specimen, Biyombo is 6'9 245 with a 7'7 wingspan and a vertical well over 30 inches. No one had even heard of him a year ago, before he joined an ACB team and then came over and dominated in the Nike Hoop Summit, an annual game between the best American high seniors and foreign teenagers. Biyombo had a triple-double and looked like a man amongst boys, which he may very well have been -- there were whispers that he was as old as 26! Raw African shot-blockers have been a mixed bag in the NBA: from Dikembe and Serge Ibaka on one side to DeSagana Diop and Mohammed Sene on the other.

Enes Kanter: Like Biyombo, he broke-out in the Nike Hoop Summit. But he spent the next year in college purgatory at Kentucky after the NCAA ruled him permanently ineligible. He has an uncommon feel for the low-post at 6'10 260, so NBA teams haven't really sweated his lack of game experience. The real concern is defensively, where he may be a 4.5 -- too short to protect the rim and defend low-post centers, too slow to defend power forwards. His best case scenario is probably Al Jefferson.

** The absurd situation revolving around Kanter's eligibility most likely ensures that an elite foreign player will never again bother with the NCAA. **

Jonas Valanciunas: He's more of a complete package than either Biyombo or Kanter, but he's also much less of a finished product. A fairly athletic 6'11 240 big man with a 7'6 wingspan, he held his own as an 18-year old in the Euroleague. Like most European big men, he's very fundamentally sound, and he shot over 90% from the free-throw line last season. But he'll need to get a lot stronger to handle playing in the NBA paint and he'll need a lot of work on his rudimentary low-post game. Best-case scenario he could be an All-Star, but if he doesn't keep improving, he'll look more like Andris Biedrins.

null Overrated:

Jimmer Fredette: He's a 6'2 185 scorer without great athleticism. He's not a true point, and I question whether he'll be able to generate good looks against someone like Andre Iguodala or Rajon Rondo.

Brandon Knight: He's a good player, but many mock drafts have him going as early as #3. I'd have a hard-time justifying picking a 6'3 180 scoring guard whose not an exceptional athlete that high, even in this draft.

Kawhi Leonard: He's not going to be a primary offensive option in the NBA, which is a huge problem for a perimeter player who can't shoot (29% from long-range).

null Underrated:

Chris Singleton: A phenomenal athlete at 6'9 230 with a 7'1 wingspan, Singleton should be able to play lock-down defense at both forward positions in the NBA. Combine that with a good three-point stroke (37% from downtown) and he should be the ultimate role-playing starter in the mode of a Tayshaun Prince or Bruce Bowen.

Iman Shumpert: A high-school All-American who never quite put it all together in his three years at Georgia Tech, Shumpert is exactly the type of player who over-performs his college production in the pros. At 6'6 220 with a 6'10 wingspan, he can defend all three perimeter positions in the NBA, and he's got great floor vision -- he was a point guard in Atlanta -- for his size. Reminds me somewhat of Andre Iguodala.

Markieff Morris: While he was in his twin brother's shadow at Kansas, Markieff's skill-set will transition better to the NBA. He's slightly bigger (6'10 240) and he's a better three-point shooter (42%) and rebounder. He'll be a great weapon as a skilled reserve big man, much like fellow Kansas alum Darrell Arthur's role in Memphis.

null The Longhorns:

Oh well.

The mock drafts have Tristan Thompson in the #8-16 range, Jordan Hamilton in the #9-19 range and Cory Joseph ... at the very end of the second round. I hope his handlers had the sense to get a promise of a guaranteed contract before going pro, otherwise he's looking at the Rio Grande Valley Vipers or the Frisco Legends next year.

At the next level, Thompson is going to need to improve his low-post game as well as develop a mid-range jumper. A good fit for him would be Detroit at #8, as his weaknesses are Greg Monroe's strengths and vice versa.

Hamilton will have to be a much more disciplined player on both sides of the ball in the pros, where he won't have the lee-way of being his team's best player. A good fit for him would be Milwaukee at #10; the Bucks have a disciplinarian coach in Scott Skiles, a strong need for scoring on the perimeter and an excellent half-court defense that could cover for him.

null The Texas Teams:

Houston: The Rockets are stuck at the end of the lottery, not good enough to make the playoffs and not high enough to get an elite player. They've got more than enough solid role players; they should swing for the fences at #14 and #23 -- talented head-cases like Kansas' Josh Selby, Shumpert or vagabond big man Jeremy Tyler, who would have been one of the top freshmen in the country last season if he hadn't made the disastrous choice to go pro in Israel as a high-school junior.

OKC: Their lack of front-court shooting was exposed by Dallas in the Western Conference Finals: the Mavs destroyed their floor spacing by ignoring Perkins, Collison and Ibaka on offense. Richmond's Justin Harper or Purdue's JaJuan Johnson would be a good fit at #24.

Dallas: To keep their streak of 50+ win seasons going, the Mavs need to re-tool fast around Tyson Chandler and Dirk. While they might be tempted to stash an international player at #26, if they want someone who can contribute now, an athletic shooter like Ohio State's David Lighty or Tennessee's Scotty Hopson would be useful.

San Antonio: Like Dallas, the Spurs might want to gamble on an international at #29 in hopes of short-circuiting the inevitable rebuilding process. But even with their devastating first-round loss to Memphis, I don't think they're that far off from being an elite team: they just need an athletic big man who can block shots, defend the low block and spread the floor. JaJuan Johnson or Georgia's Trey Thompkins would be an upgrade over Matt Bonner at the very least.

** The one player all three teams are apparently eyeing is Spain's Nikola Mirotic. The only reason he's not a top-10 pick is because his club team buyout will prevent him from coming over for a few years. He's not really a prospect; he's a 20-year old who has excelled in the Euroleague with an NBA body and NBA skills. He's Rashard Lewis with more ball-handling ability. **

Even though it won't have a huge impact on the league, NBA fans should enjoy the draft. It might be the last bit of pro basketball we see for a long time.

Tweet Comment 22 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

As always, I can’t wait for the NBA Draft. Potential is such a tease. Twas wondering if you were going to do a draft preview; great stuff as always. And thanks for the ASoB link…look for the other 3 freshmen previews shortly. Briefly: they’re good.

I think the internationals will ultimately determine how well this draft is remembered. If one of these guys turns out to be the next Dirk, well, awesome. It’s really hard to see any of the Americans turn out to be stars; I think you hit the nail on the head with Irving. Calipari absolutely gushes about how good Enes Kanter is. Basically said that with Kanter, they win the title. Montienujas was said to be an absolute joke on defense, but a 7-footer that can score sounds awful nice.

Luke Winn had a nice article about Charles Jenkins from Hofstra being a good 2nd round sleeper.

Sounds like your predictions for the Texas duo are on the extremely high end. Very conceivable Thompson drops out of the lottery, and Hamilton into the 20s. Cory Joseph…yeesh. Even DeAndre Liggins is was getting a little “first round potential” buzz (umm…yeah), and dude’s 23 years old. At least he has NBA skills at this point. I really hope he got the right 2nd round guarantee. Would love to see him go to a team like, say, San Antonio, that knows how to mine some hidden gems.

I’d love to see Houston get either Thompson or Hamilton, for selfish reasons. More realistically, I think Morey goes for a safe pick here. He needs immediate contribution and needs to make the playoffs. If he doesn’t, I really think his head is on the chopping block, regardless of how much Les loves him. I wouldn’t mind Chris Singleton with their first pick, lockdown defender in the mold of Shane Battier. Not a home-run, but a guy that can contribute and start. Bismack Biyombo seems to be dropping too, if he really is the next Ben Wallace that would fill a huge hole in the middle. The last thing the Rockets need is another PF, though, so gotta make sure he’s tall enough. Darius Morris (and before that, Reggie Jackson) seems like the common projection for pick 2, but I wouldn’t mind them swinging for the fences there. Jeremy Tyler would be nice. Nikola Vucevic would be a nightmare.

I’d say there’s a strong chance OKC goes foreign. Do they really need another young’un for that squad? Hopefully Cole Aldrich steps up next year.

by jc25 on Jun 19, 2011 10:57 PM CDT reply actions

I’ve seen Selby falling to the Bulls in several mocks and, as a Bulls fan, I would love to see this. Selby is very raw, but has a ton of upside as a scorer at the 2 (albeit an undersized 2 b/c he’s probably a combo guard). Do you think he’ll fall that far? If not, I’ve also seen Honeycutt as an option, but he seems more of a 3 to me.

by marqroid on Jun 20, 2011 12:33 AM CDT reply actions

It’s hard to say with Selby — he has lottery-level talent and undrafted-level production. Definitely think he’s worth a gamble once you’re outside of the lottery. He’d be a great pick for Chicago.

I’m a big fan of Honeycutt as well — he’s extremely skilled and athletic for a 6’8 forward. Could see him turning into a Nic Batum type.

If I were the Bulls, I would just wait to see who falls to you at the end of the first round. Someone always does — DeAndre Jordan in ‘08, DeJuan Blair in ’09. At that point, you can’t worry about need, you’re just trying to find a guy who can play.

by tjarks on Jun 20, 2011 12:56 AM CDT reply actions

Fearing the opportunity cost of a missed season, most of college basketball’s top prospects returned to school, reversing a decade-long trend.
Longhorns of course got the hell out of Dodge, in line with a decade-long trend. Christ.

by PatronSaint on Jun 20, 2011 11:59 AM CDT reply actions

Hollinger’s Draft Rater is out. He likes him some Tristan Thompson.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=draftrater-110620

by jc25 on Jun 20, 2011 1:26 PM CDT reply actions

I like any draft where the analysts are describing players ten guys in as potentially useful 7th or 8th men.

Thoughts:

The objections to Jimmer are straightforward enough, but one thing I noticed in his game that’s not often discussed is how freaking strong the guy is. He’s really, really strong. He’s also considerably quicker than popular perception. People keep trying to find comparators for him and I think it’s Vinnie Johnson. I would shape his minutes and role accordingly.

Enes Kanter is a cipher. He has played so little that it’s easy to project whatever we want on him. On defense = Kevin Love?

What do you do with UConn’s Kemba Walker? The change in perimeter rules has allowed the little man back into the game. But it’s hard to imagine being able to keep him on the floor for long periods of time without giving up some defense.

You didn’t mention Alec Burks from Colorado. Great value, IMO. 6-6, still growing into his body, long, very sophisticated mid-range game. He’s not even 20 yet and I see a jump shot that can and will improve.

by Scipio Tex on Jun 20, 2011 3:08 PM CDT reply actions

There are very few guys this year you can just plug into a roster and they’ll be effective.

Like Kanter — if he goes to a place like Washington (Javale McGee) or Utah (Derrick Favors) that has a long and fast 6’11+ guy who can take the more difficult front-court assignment most nights, he’ll be a valuable scorer. But if he goes somewhere like Toronto (Bargnani) or Minnesota (Love) with another weak interior defender, than teams are going to be running trains at the rim.

Burks is a good player, but his outside jumper is shaky, he’s not a plus athlete and he’s not great at creating shots for other people. I’m not sure what he gives you when the ball isn’t in his hands.

You hit on the head with Walker — super-fast, but he might be better off as an instant-offense type off the bench so you can manage his minutes against super-sized back-courts.

by tjarks on Jun 21, 2011 12:03 AM CDT reply actions

saw a draft where Singler was picked to go to the Thunder. That’s an interesting prospect.

by kemit on Jun 21, 2011 10:56 PM CDT reply actions

Singler would be a good fit in OKC — he’s ready to play right away, he can stroke, he’d give them a legit back-up 3 and could swing over to the 4 in certain situations. But I’d take Justin Harper (Richmond) over him though.

Got an article up at RealGM talking about “the mediocrity treadmill” that teams at the end of the lottery get caught in and why Houston has to take some risks in the draft:

http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/214274/The_Mediocrity_Treadmill

by tjarks on Jun 22, 2011 4:36 PM CDT reply actions

jc25 — There’s talk that Cleveland could grab Thompson at 4 now: http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/6/22/2237664/nba-draft-rumors-cleveland-cavaliers-tristan-thompson

It would actually be a pretty good fit for both sides — Thompson could be a long-term interior defensive building block at the 4 and he’ll be able to get out and run with Irving and get some easy buckets.

by tjarks on Jun 22, 2011 4:38 PM CDT reply actions

Offensive rebounding and foot speed in transition are the most consistently underrated skills in the NBA.

It gets you your own shot without a need to be serviced in the offense, it creates extra possessions, and it’s disheartening as hell for another team to get murdered on the boards.

That makes Tristan Thompson and the Kenneth Faried kid interesting to me.

tjarks -

Don’t you think Cleveland should be much more aggressive in exploiting Minnesota while holding the #1? I tell Minny that I’m taking Derrick Williams unless they give me an asset. The Timberwolves can’t take another point guard and no one will trade with them.

Cleveland has those guys over a barrel and they should act like it.

by Scipio Tex on Jun 22, 2011 4:43 PM CDT reply actions

Lots of talk that Kanter is in discussions for the #2 spot, Minny or otherwise. Ironically, that would push Kentucky teammate Knight from the 3rd spot; #5 to Toronto would be most likely. Methinks Washington is desperately trying to deal into the top 4 to get Kanter. I can imagine that the Enes camp will be most unhappy if he ends up in chilly Minny.

I’d be pissed if Thompson ends up going 4th to Cleveland. Watching him run with Kyrie Irving would just remind me of what we lost out on potentially combining Thompson with Kabongo. But yes, I agree that would be huge for TT to get drafted that high and validate his decision, and good for Cleveland to get two talents.

by jc25 on Jun 22, 2011 4:48 PM CDT reply actions

Scip — The consensus on Faried is that Portland is locked on him at #21; he’d be great next to Aldridge and they really don’t have a back-up 4 right now either.

Apparently Cleveland has been sending out mixed signals about who they’ll take #1 to hurt Minnesota’s ability to deal the #2 pick and keep their options open at #4. Problem with dealing with the Wolves directly is they’ve already proven they aren’t very rational actors — they’d probably say OK and take Irving.

by tjarks on Jun 22, 2011 4:52 PM CDT reply actions

tjarks -

They’re not historically rational actors, but that would be an immediately fireable offense for David Kahn. Rubio, Flynn, Irving. It just can’t happen.

I’m convinced I’m a better negotiator than 90% of the GMs in the NBA.

by Scipio Tex on Jun 22, 2011 4:58 PM CDT reply actions

Now the Wolves are saying they are going to take Kanter — http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/30601/latest-draft-buzz-the-top-five-picks.

A Kanter and Love front-court would get murdered defensively and prevent Rubio from getting out in the open-court, so I don’t know about that. The Wolves problem is they need a shot-blocking 5 and an athletic 2, and this draft is filled with 1’s, 3’s and 4’s. It’d be a problem for a great front-office, much less a Kahn led one.

by tjarks on Jun 22, 2011 5:06 PM CDT reply actions

tjarks: what’d you think of the 3 team trade?

by mattdubya on Jun 23, 2011 6:17 PM CDT reply actions

I was listening to talk radio out of Detroit this afternoon and one of the hosts was dead set against the Pistons taking Tristan Thompson. No jumper, bad FT shooter. Said essentially that he didn’t think he hustled, which to me meant he had only seen him miss free throws. I thought it was interesting.

So he was quite pleased to hear that the Hornets were moving ahead of Detroit with their eye on Thompson.

by Bob in Houston on Jun 23, 2011 6:37 PM CDT reply actions

hooooooly shit

by mattdubya on Jun 23, 2011 6:56 PM CDT reply actions

WOW!

Was just about to post TT was under valued and J Hamilton overvalued. Apparently Cleveland agrees with me on TT and was playing the quiet game.

by lowdenswain on Jun 23, 2011 7:04 PM CDT reply actions

Great spot for TT in Cleveland — playing with a point-guard who can get him easy baskets out in the open court. That’s a solid foundation for them to start over with.

Really like that trade for Charlotte — their new GM (Rich Cho) came up under Presti in OKC and he’s clearly following the Thunder’s model of blowing everything up and building through the draft. Biyombo could end up as the top player in the draft when all is said and done — he’s got All-Defensive potential in the front-court.

by tjarks on Jun 23, 2011 8:17 PM CDT reply actions

Aaaaand…I guess we now know why Cory Joseph made the jump. Picked by the Spurs at 29. So, tell me: who amongst you though Cory would be making guaranteed first round money? Fantastic for the kid; he’s also a good fit for them.

by Dagga Roosta on Jun 23, 2011 9:26 PM CDT reply actions