Weekend in Las Vegas: Against All Odds

by srr50 on Aug 22, 2011 8:42 PM CDT

As I strapped in this morning for the 7:00 am return flight from Las Vegas to Austin, I was struck with the realization that my basic set of beliefs had been shaken to the core.

I can no longer thrive in Vegas on three hours sleep and day-old bagels.

Returning a day late – and more than a dollar short – I had encountered a myriad of setbacks, from missed flights to botched reservations to a 3-day run of horrific cards that defied imagination and even had pit bosses slack-jawed in wonder.

Actually, the run was so bad it was easy to stop throwing good money after bad and simply take care of the other items on the agenda.

For instance: Checking out the green velvet out in the desert.

I also made the mistake of mentioning my trip at the last BC Board Meeting, so I had a few items added to by itinerary. Sailor – ever the entrepreneur – insisted that I check in on the distribution centers throughout the strip to make sure our crew was updating the merchandise in a timely manner.

Vasherized’s request was at once pathetic and somewhat endearing. He begged for something – anything from his all-time favorite Vegas act. He was adamant to have something to get him through until his next pilgrimage to entertainment heaven.

Sorry Vash. This was the best I could do.

Table troubles did allow me to spend more time at the Caesar’s Sports Book, where you can spend quality time studying College Futures. As our friends over at Fading Las Vegas will tell you, early season college football is an excellent chance to "Play The Futures Market" and dig for gold in undervalued and overvalued teams early in the season.

The team odds for Conference and BCS champions are out, and while I avoid putting any money on this futures item, (the risk-reward return does not appeal to me) it can be a nice gauge on whose fans are willing to put their money where their loyalty is, after you compare the opening line with where it stands now (August 20th).

2012 BCS National Champion
As expected SEC fans love their teams. Defending National Champion Auburn is picked as low as 4th or 5th in their own division in the SEC, but their fans have faith. The Tigers opened at 80-1 to defend their title, and currently it is 75-1. Alabama opened at 5-1 and is now 4-1. LSU started out at 12-1 and is down to 6-1 heading into the last part of August. South Carolina moved down to 20-1 to win the BCS after opening at 35-1.

Mark Richt and Georgia will again face a fan base with great expectations. The Bulldogs opened at 50-1 to win the BCS and are currently down to 25-1. The Will Muschamp Era at Florida hasn’t engendered much optimism from the fans on the national scene. The Gators moved from an opening line of 12-1 up to the current 35-1 odds to win it all.

Scandal-plagued Ohio State opened at 20-1 and is up to 40-1. Conversely Big 10 newcomer Nebraska has gone from an opening line of 20-1 down to 10-1.
Oklahoma heads up the list for shortest odds. The Sooners opened at 4-1 and currently sit at 3-1 to win the National Championship next January in New Orleans.

There has been little movement for the Texas line, going from an opening of 20-1 to 22-1. Texas A&M is currently a "hot" buy, dropping from an opening bid of 35-1 down to 22-1.

Meanwhile could somebody please slip a c-note on Baylor? Please?

Baylor opened at 100-1 odds to win the BCS title – right now you can get the Bears at 800-1.

College Football Regular Season Wins – Over/Under
This is where I look for value, and a couple of the team stocks are very appealing. Miami looks overvalued to me at 8. (The money line is -115 for both the over/under, which means you will have to bet $115 to win $100). Texas is currently listed at 8.5 wins for the season with the over at +110 (which means you win $110 with a $100 bet).

Others of interest: Texas A&M is listed at 9 wins, and the under is -150. Texas Tech is listed at 7 wins with the over in at +110. With a non-conference slate of Texas State, New Mexico and Nevada, the Red Raiders have a shot at 8. Oklahoma is set at 10 wins with a -135 on the over and a +105 on the under. Oklahoma State is at 8.5 wins at -115 either way. Baylor is set at 6.5 wins and you have to place a $150 wager to win $100 if you want the under. They are +120 on the over.

College Football – Week #1
There are a few games of interest Sept 1st through Sept. 5th.
Friday the 2nd TCU is a 6.5 favorite at Baylor.

On Saturday the 3rd, Houston is a 3.5 favorite hosting UCLA, Notre Dame is a 10.5 favorite hosting South Florida.

Oregon is -1 vs. LSU and Boise State is -3 at Georgia.

Sunday the 4th, Texas A&M hosts SMU as a 15.5 favorite, and Monday night, Miami is at 5.5 favorite at Maryland.

The two I felt a pull to take was Texas -22 against Rice – I believe in the Asset! And I like BYU -2.3 at Mississippi. Houston Nutt doesn’t have a quarterback, and probably doesn’t have a clue either.

Who you got?

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Comments

If I was a gambler I would be all over UT and SMU the first weekend

by BEW on Aug 22, 2011 8:57 PM CDT reply actions

I would love to see more of these types of posts over here at Barking. I often forget to check Fading these days.

by redfoot on Aug 22, 2011 8:59 PM CDT reply actions

What’s the over/under on number of days left in XII for agy?

by Fong the Merciless on Aug 22, 2011 8:59 PM CDT reply actions

FLV is about to get a reboot. Should have the site up next week with handicapping from Vegaskyle, Trips Right and a few special guests (not mafia).

by Vasherized on Aug 22, 2011 9:05 PM CDT reply actions

I’m a big fan of BYU, btw. The aerodynamic boxers should carry the day.

by redfoot on Aug 22, 2011 9:11 PM CDT reply actions

Well Aggies…It’s time to put your money were your mouth is. Is 9 wins all you expect from the greatest Fighting Texas Aggies team in 20 years?

by Team Dirty Leg on Aug 22, 2011 9:35 PM CDT reply actions

Aggies are delusional as well as paranoid 1 this year. Don’t expect good cards during a recession. Those guys are scraping for their jobs this year. (I used to go on 4 junkets as a hotel guest 4 times a year for about 6 years, then lived there for 3 years in the 90s.)

by jerryw on Aug 22, 2011 9:44 PM CDT reply actions

Miami’s got enough distractions right now to last them a season, assuming a normal shame threshold and standard moral compass.

On second thought, I’ll take the over.

by parlin on Aug 22, 2011 10:13 PM CDT reply actions

We’ll deinetly cover against Rice, and I’d take UCLA and the points against Houston. The Bruins can nail you with the run game, as we all learned last year.

by Scanal Man on Aug 22, 2011 10:49 PM CDT reply actions

We’re seriously -22 against Rice?

I’m backing up the truck.

by Scipio Tex on Aug 22, 2011 10:56 PM CDT reply actions

My thoughts exactly Scipio — I jumped all over it, then I remembered that old adage, If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.

BTW I sat down at a table and on the first hand I was in a player two seats to my right drew a Royal Flush — on the flop.

by srr50 on Aug 22, 2011 11:06 PM CDT reply actions

I got UT at 30:1 back in July. I look like a genius now!

by RIVALWEAR on Aug 22, 2011 11:11 PM CDT reply actions

Only if you bet $10 or less. I assume you mean 30:1 to win it all, right?

by Jake Lonergan on Aug 22, 2011 11:57 PM CDT reply actions

Steve, I’ll be out there Tuesday through Friday the week of the KSU game. I was there week before last and would have dropped some on the Rice game, but I hadn’t seen these reports and was still mentally snakebit from last year’s UCLA, ISU, etc. I fell better now than then, thanks to the asset and The Jesus.

I’m thinking of getting a bet down in abstentia and collecting it in November as a birthday gift and and a stake in craps.

by Jake Lonergan on Aug 23, 2011 12:02 AM CDT reply actions

Put $50 on it as a flier. After these reports, i’m counting my money. Of course, I also hedged with $50 on LSU, alabama, and(I’m sorry to say), OU.

by RIVALWEAR on Aug 23, 2011 12:52 AM CDT reply actions

Just because I’m curious, do all sports bets have to be made in Vegas now? My understanding from, ahem third parties, is that many of the sports book sites were shut down.

by redfoot on Aug 23, 2011 9:27 AM CDT reply actions

Give us a +1

by Humanity on Aug 23, 2011 9:31 AM CDT reply actions

Your win total @ 8.5 ? That’s an under bet gift if you could stomach to make it. OU, A&M , and OSU are virtually locks which means you have to fade KSU, BU, ISU, and UCLA (remember they beat you last year) not to mention the fighting Mo Mo’s at altitude in Provo. I’ll give you KU , tech , Rice , and whatever other sister of the poor on your schedule.

by Aggie Lurking on Aug 23, 2011 11:23 AM CDT reply actions

Sorry my bad the other team is Mizzou. The under is a lock.

by Aggie Lurking on Aug 23, 2011 11:47 AM CDT reply actions

We get BYU in Austin the week after they have to fly out east to Ole Miss. Oh yeah, on deck for the Cougars after Texas is rival Utah. Bad spot for BYU to be sure.

by Jesus Shuttlesworth on Aug 23, 2011 3:46 PM CDT reply actions

redfoot,
There are always local people, plus I think you can get on bookmaker.com, just not sure how easy it is to get money on and off the site.

by chitwood on Aug 23, 2011 4:02 PM CDT reply actions

“OU, A&M , and OSU are virtually locks which means you have to fade KSU, BU, ISU, and UCLA”

Texas is favored over OSU at the moment and we’ll be favored in the other games besides OU and ATM and I wouldn’t concede any of those games. I would say 8.5 wins is about right.

by dick on Aug 23, 2011 9:33 PM CDT reply actions

From BoDog:

Atlantic Coast Conference 2011 – Odds to Win Atlantic Division
Florida State 2/5
Maryland 5/1
Clemson 6/1
Boston College 9/1
North Carolina State 11/1
Wake Forest 55/1

Atlantic Coast Conference 2011 – Odds to Win Coastal Division
(They’re not up to due to uncertainty of Miami situation)

Big 12 Conference 2011 – Odds to Win Conference
Oklahoma 4/9
Texas A&M 5/1
Texas 13/2
Oklahoma State 9/1
Missouri 14/1
Kansas 15/1
Baylor 18/1
Texas Tech 20/1
Kansas State 35/1
Iowa State 100/1

Big East Conference 2011 – Odds to Win Conference
West Virginia 2/1
South Florida 5/2
Pittsburgh 7/2
Cincinnati 7/1
Louisville 10/1
Rutgers 15/1
Syracuse 18/1
Connecticut 22/1

Big Ten Conference 2011 – Odds to Win Conference
Nebraska 7/4
Wisconsin 13/5
Ohio State 5/1
Penn State 11/2
Michigan State 10/1
Iowa 15/1
Michigan 15/1
Northwestern 20/1
Illinois 25/1
Purdue 85/1
Indiana 125/1
Minnesota 125/1

Big Ten Conference 2011 – Odds to Win Leaders Division
Wisconsin 5/4
Penn State 9/4
Ohio State 5/2
Illinois 10/1
Purdue 33/1
Indiana 40/1

Big Ten Conference 2011 – Odds to Win Legends Division
Nebraska 1/2
Michigan State 4/1
Michigan 11/2
Iowa 7/1
Northwestern 9/1
Minnesota 50/1

PAC 12 Conference 2011 – Odds to Win Conference
Oregon 2/1
Stanford 3/1
Arizona State 11/2
Utah 13/2
Arizona 8/1
Washington 16/1
Oregon State 16/1
UCLA 18/1
California 20/1
Colorado 22/1
Washington State 100/1

PAC 12 Conference 2011 – Odds to Win North Division
Oregon 5/4
Stanford 7/4
Oregon State 13/2
Washington 13/2
California 10/1
Washington State 40/1

PAC 12 Conference 2011 – Odds to Win South Division
Arizona State 9/5
Utah 2/1
Arizona 3/1
UCLA 6/1
Colorado 8/1

Southeastern Conference 2011 – Odds to Win Conference
Alabama 9/5
Florida 9/2
Georgia 5/1
LSU 5/1
South Carolina 6/1
Arkansas 13/1
Tennessee 18/1
Mississippi State 22/1
Auburn 28/1
Kentucky 66/1
Mississippi 66/1
Vanderbilt 150/1

Southeastern Conference 2011 – Odds to Win East Division
Florida 9/5
South Carolina 19/10
Georgia 2/1
Tennessee 15/2
Kentucky 25/1
Vanderbilt 75/1

Southeastern Conference 2011 – Odds to Win West Division
Alabama 10/11
LSU 5/2
Arkansas 6/1
Mississippi State 7/1
Auburn 12/1
Mississippi 22/1

by Scipio Tex on Aug 24, 2011 8:38 PM CDT reply actions

I’m not surprised that Vegas has us finishing 3rd in the conference. The only guaranteed Big 12 loss is in Norman. Luckily, Texas doesn’t have to go there. I would think Mizzou would be a good value if not for having to travel to OU. They would need OU to lose twice, as would ATM.

Also, did Vegas really need to put South Carolina’s odds at 19/10, or Bama at 10/11? Such precision.

by dick on Aug 24, 2011 9:31 PM CDT reply actions

Caesars has Texas at 9/2 to win the Big 12 (3rd behind OU 4/9 and A&M 3/1).

Nebraska is 3/2 to win the Big 10 — same as they opened, while Wisconsin is next at 2/1 an Penn State is 9/2. Ohio State opened at 5/1 and now at 9/1.

Alabama is the favorite in the SEC at 3/2 according to Caesars, with Florida at 9/4 (avoid) and LSU at 9/2. They have South Carolina at 4/1.

by srr50 on Aug 24, 2011 11:06 PM CDT reply actions

hi!,I like your writing very much! proportion we keep up a correspondence more about your post on AOL? I need an expert on this area to solve my problem. May be that’s you! Taking a look forward to see you.

by Royal Flush JackBoyz Remix on Dec 21, 2011 2:16 AM CST reply actions