Resident Handicapper VegasKyle Talks Texas -23 vs. Rice

Texas -23 just happens to be VegasKyle's favorite pick of the week.

Cappers love the first few weeks of the season because the linemakers in Vegas don't have a good feel yet for how teams will come out of the gate. All of the current lines are projections based on what a team has on paper, how it finished last season, offseason coaching changes, attrition, etc. Whereas, professional handicappers can actually see the future.

Here's a snippet as to why he likes the game, but make sure you visit his new site, gameanalysts.com (it's still under construction), and read the entire piece. They'll eventually be covering CBB, MLB, and NFL as well so get your college picks now while they're still free.

VK's angle with respect to what happened last season is right on. The other picks should be money makers if history is any indication. If you ever followed him at his old site cappingthegame, this dude is nails when it comes to handicapping college foots. When he talks, Vegas listens.

3. Motivation

Whenever laying huge points one has to consider the motivation of the favorite. I think there is plenty here for the Texas Longhorns:

-New coordinators are going to want to make their mark
-Texas rates to run offense when the backup QB (s) enter the game
-Texas has had to listen about how bad they are for the entire off season from fans and enemies alike.
-Texas needs to build confidence
-Week 1 of the college football season rarely has the same look ahead factors as other points in the season for a variety of reasons ( ready to hit someone new, securing starting positions means max effort, etc etc )
-Mack Brown seems engaged

While my line is significantly higher than the current line, my final score prediction will be significantly higher than what I consider fair value for Texas as well. So keep that in mind as I predict a final score of Texas 48 Rice 10.

Cliff Notes
-Big Favorite has motivation
-Texas will stop the run and Rice is not designed to pass
-Texas game plan is far more aggressive this year than last year’s and even last year’s game had a deceiving score
-After up big, Texas will continue to work QB’s
-Rice defense is horrible
-Unprecedented line for the series
-Public perception against Texas keeps line low
-Avoid the minus 2 turnover ratio and cover the game

Check out the full write up here.

And no, Sailor Ripley will not reimburse your losing parlay on Georgia, Texas, Baylor, and LSU.

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