Resident Handicapper VegasKyle Talks Texas -23 vs. Rice
by Vasherized on Sep 2, 2011 2:54 PM CDT
in Texas Longhorns and Other Football
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PrintTexas -23 just happens to be VegasKyle's favorite pick of the week.
Cappers love the first few weeks of the season because the linemakers in Vegas don't have a good feel yet for how teams will come out of the gate. All of the current lines are projections based on what a team has on paper, how it finished last season, offseason coaching changes, attrition, etc. Whereas, professional handicappers can actually see the future.
Here's a snippet as to why he likes the game, but make sure you visit his new site, gameanalysts.com (it's still under construction), and read the entire piece. They'll eventually be covering CBB, MLB, and NFL as well so get your college picks now while they're still free.
VK's angle with respect to what happened last season is right on. The other picks should be money makers if history is any indication. If you ever followed him at his old site cappingthegame, this dude is nails when it comes to handicapping college foots. When he talks, Vegas listens.
3. Motivation
Whenever laying huge points one has to consider the motivation of the favorite. I think there is plenty here for the Texas Longhorns:
-New coordinators are going to want to make their mark
-Texas rates to run offense when the backup QB (s) enter the game
-Texas has had to listen about how bad they are for the entire off season from fans and enemies alike.
-Texas needs to build confidence
-Week 1 of the college football season rarely has the same look ahead factors as other points in the season for a variety of reasons ( ready to hit someone new, securing starting positions means max effort, etc etc )
-Mack Brown seems engagedWhile my line is significantly higher than the current line, my final score prediction will be significantly higher than what I consider fair value for Texas as well. So keep that in mind as I predict a final score of Texas 48 Rice 10.
Cliff Notes
-Big Favorite has motivation
-Texas will stop the run and Rice is not designed to pass
-Texas game plan is far more aggressive this year than last year’s and even last year’s game had a deceiving score
-After up big, Texas will continue to work QB’s
-Rice defense is horrible
-Unprecedented line for the series
-Public perception against Texas keeps line low
-Avoid the minus 2 turnover ratio and cover the game
Check out the full write up here.
And no, Sailor Ripley will not reimburse your losing parlay on Georgia, Texas, Baylor, and LSU.
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I guess to be technically correct I should have put +23. Oh well.
I’m not going to believe diddly shit out of Gilbert until I see it. New offensive coordinator or not he’s still an average to below average college QB.
by maninblack on Sep 2, 2011 3:20 PM CDT reply actions
I’m ambivalent but I’m going to drink the HarsinWhite Stacy Searels running game punch and say we cover.
by Drew Dunlevie on Sep 2, 2011 3:23 PM CDT reply actions
OK, total newbie here. How do I get some of that action w/out actually going to Vegas?
by spider on Sep 2, 2011 3:32 PM CDT reply actions
spider…go knock on the door at the Kappa Sig house in Austin. Ask for Jimmie.
by knish on Sep 2, 2011 3:53 PM CDT reply actions
Honest question here, am I in the minority in that I am a hardcore college football fan that has never bet on a game? I feel like I know the game well enough to make some educated bets, and I have enough money in my pocket that I could lose some and still put gas in my car….
I’ve just always been worried that putting money on it would sully the experience and ruin my love for the game. And I don’t know any bookies.
And I do go to the track or casino a few times a year so I’m not averse to gambling generally.
by Nero on Sep 2, 2011 4:13 PM CDT reply actions
If the Communist owl successfully taps the secret Hornwater, we’re not only upside down but screwed.
But in this heat I think we wear them down 35-6.
by parlin on Sep 2, 2011 4:13 PM CDT reply actions
One minor point is that -23 is not an unprecedented line in the series. The first college football game I ever bet on was when Texas was favored by only 6-1/2 points over Rice in 1998.
We won 59-21, of course, as Ricky had over 300 yards.
Texas at home against Rice with (essentially) a new coaching staff. Sounds familiar.
Link to verify that ridiculous line. I mean I realize we had only beaten them by 7 points the previous season, but that was at Rice with our worst team of the last half of the 20th century.
by Huckleberry on Sep 2, 2011 4:28 PM CDT reply actions
Was in Vegas 10 days ago — got Texas 22 at Ceasars - that along with BYU -2 against Ole Miss were my favorite picks.
by srr50 on Sep 2, 2011 4:42 PM CDT reply actions
Nero,
It might sully the experience slightly, but that will be made up for in a new exciting anxiety-ridden dimension of the game.
by TDiddle on Sep 2, 2011 5:07 PM CDT reply actions
From what I’ve read, it seems like 59-21 is more likely than 35-6 since Rice has a much better offense than defense.
by Nevets on Sep 2, 2011 6:03 PM CDT reply actions
Gambling is a beautiful thing. When Texas is up 30 in the 4q and someone says “it is time to go”. You can kindly and politely say “shut the fvck up. Rice has the ball and I am laying 23. The hell I am leaving you stupid Son of a bitch”. Nothing makes a cupcake game more interesting than a little wager.
by Codaxx on Sep 2, 2011 6:33 PM CDT reply actions
My last wager was on Rice and UT in 1994. I thought we would cover. It rained. We lost.
by Sleepy on Sep 2, 2011 9:54 PM CDT reply actions
It can sully the fan experience but takes you to a whole new level of appreciation for the ridiculous.
by vegaskyle on Sep 2, 2011 11:03 PM CDT reply actions
VK – great to have you back on the scene. Quick question – after the government’s latest Puritanical shenanigans, is Bookmaker.eu/CRIS still a reliable option for withdrawals?
by nobis60 on Sep 3, 2011 12:34 AM CDT reply actions
Pretty close to my line for the last two weeks
Texas 55
Rice 10
by JET on Sep 3, 2011 12:59 AM CDT reply actions
Nobis60, as dick said… yes most likely. That whole DOJ crackdown was more about American Gaming Lobby money clearing the way for legalization in the United States and not having to enter a saturated market. 3-5 years from now we should have companies like Harrahs booking sports online.
by vegaskyle on Sep 3, 2011 8:21 AM CDT reply actions
Sleepy, I was at that Rice game in 1994. It did not rain. A crippled Morenz stunk up the place and we lost because the best QB was not on the field.
by Flash on Sep 3, 2011 9:58 AM CDT reply actions
I too was at that 94 game and distinctly remember rain. I also recall it would pour the second we got the ball and let up right when they got the ball. Maybe I’m misremembering, as there was a huge flood that weekend in Houston. The game was on a weird day too- something like a Thursday or a Sunday?
by stuckinmn on Sep 3, 2011 10:48 AM CDT reply actions
Seems like the good things of the past are coming back to us.
And some not so great things, relatively speaking, like having to listen to the game on the radio because DirectFingTV is not carrying the Longhorn Network.
Hard to believe Texas and ESPN did not get this done months ago.
by Kosciousko on Sep 3, 2011 3:40 PM CDT reply actions
Boom ! Hope you guys checked out the other plays as well. Was a nice day overall.
by vegaskyle on Sep 3, 2011 11:16 PM CDT reply actions
Thanks to the Longhorns, my whole Vegas trip was paid for. The odds at the half were Texas -11. It was like stealing from a candy from a baby.
by David Wilbanks on Sep 5, 2011 12:03 AM CDT reply actions
The intangibles paid off with the late cover… I too was able to make back some money in Vegas with this line. To borrow from the Simpsons, “hooray for everything!”
by Ojnab Bob on Sep 5, 2011 2:38 PM CDT reply actions
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