Coaches Are PE Majors: The Aggie Edition

Truly brilliant analysis Scip, thanks!

Okie Lite’s vulnerability to ball control offense could bode well for us…

Well that felt like a gratuitous shot across the bow.

Well, OSU practically invented poor clock management under both Miles and now Gundy.

Here’s a shocking idea for college coaches: If you have a substantial lead at half over an opponent, the simple act of taking your time snapping the ball with a running game clock will run anywhere from 3-7 minutes off the fourth quarter clock if you start doing it at the beginning of the second half.

I’m not talking about Henry Melton up the middle for 2 yard gain, 3 times in a row running out the clock, but rather “Hey, Ryan, take your time setting the line and snapping the ball”

Don’t bring those opposing team timeouts into play: End the game early while you still have a 10 point lead.

First-rate analysis of how the game works. How you win. And how you don’t.

Reminds me of some Nuke LaLoosh a few years back. After striking out seven of the first eight hitters he faced throwing all fastballs, he gave up a home run on a hanging curveball to the opponent’s No. 9 batter. Asked by his manager why he threw the curve, the LaLoosh Clone answered, “I figured they were about to catch up with my fastball.”

Even I saw the change in the OSU defense with over seven minutes to go and wondered the same thing I always do when someone switches from something that was working to something that is supposed to work. WHY!?!?!? They had the Aggie offense wretching blood and holding onto the ropes AND forced to pass.

But you’ve already said all this. Sure was fun to watch.

This kind of play will cost each of these teams a couple of additional losses this year…

Bates -
 
That’s the subject of a future column. And I largely agree. You don’t want to take your offense completely out of its rhythm (if quick counts causing defensive confusion are how you scored, continue doing it) but all things being equal, if you have a commanding lead, you don’t need to snap the ball with 18 seconds left on the play clock.
 
edsp -
 
Ha. I remember that well.

Longhorn Josh -
 
The problem is that it’s not consistently a fault in either one of these coaching staffs. It’s situational. A lot of coaches don’t have a process for these sorts of things and when they find themselves in them under pressure, they fall back on received coaching wisdom.
 
Mike Sherman blew halftime, but his end of game tactics by holding on to his time outs for defense (that people even debate this anymore amuses me) were perfect. His end of game was really good.
 
Gundy and Young did a hell of a job making adjustments and not panicking, but then they go batshit crazy over the last 7:00.
 
By the way, our head man isn’t real sound in some of these end-of-game scenarios, so let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. I think Harsin/Diaz/Applewhite are a good core of advisers though.

So here is the real question, given the obvious financial rewards for good coaches, why hasn’t Ben Mezrich written a book about smart Ivy league statisticians busting open the coaching profession? Is it because the football teams in the Ivy league are about as competitive as a 4A Texas team?

Back in the day when the coach was the PE teacher, I could understand why all the smart kids went into engineering or med school. But today, I have heard high school coaches in Texas make 6 figure salaries, and they sure as hell aren’t teaching anything.

Perhaps it’s just taking a while for the good ol’ boy network to expel the retards and work in a few people with new ideas. After all, Norv Turner still has a job, and it took 16 years to fire Jeff Fisher.

Having consulted in numerous companies very large to very small, across pretty much every industry, one thing I have learned is that the only reason organizations of any sort are not overrun by their competition is that everybody is doing the same ridiculous crap. Every once in a while an organization in some industry manages to lower their crap quotient by 25% and suddenly they are geniuses(think Southwest, plenty of crap but for a long time 25% less than any other airline).

The moral of this story? Any organization (MB are you listening) that can reduce its idiocy ratio by 35% or better can rule the world.

Bates:

The Cowboy’s center does not agree with you that you should take your time snapping the ball, and there is nothing you can do to stop him!

Due to a regular infusion of Longhorn Scott’s commentaries, there’s one thing I noticed in the second half, and I’m wondering if anyone else caught it too. In the third quarter the Cowboys were regularly – like, at least every other play – presenting trips formation or something similar, putting extreme pressure on the pass defense on one side of the field. A&M would then refuse to bring a LB over, allowing one or two shallow defenders and one deep defender to cover the trips. And invariably Weeden would throw short to an open receiver and the other two would block their assignments. Cheap and easy yards by the bucket, exploited at least a dozen times over three drives, and A&M didn’t adjust until the 4th quarter.

roach -
 
Moneyball is beginning to infiltrate other sports. It has certainly arrived in basketball. Long story short, football is a much more complex and varied sport to break down than baseball.
 
However, it’s surprising to me that coaches don’t hire one volunteer assistant who understands probability theory, game theory, has modeled end-of-game scenarios to assist them with these sorts of situations. That’s probably the impetus for why the 2 point conversion laminated cards were created. It’s like having a guide to blackjack while you’re sitting at the table.
 
The New England Patriots won 3 Super Bowls basically on their mastery of this stuff.
 
You also raise a good point about compensation. More and more varied people are getting into coaching and winning is its own Darwinian process.
 
There are plenty of smart coaches, but sometimes they’re smart in very specific ways.

Note that when the aggies did run in the second half, they weren’t very successful. So I wonder if OSU made some ajdustments at halftime that led the aggies to pass more.

The confusion of the aggie D in the second half was only surprising to those who have not seen repeated examples of bizzare aggie behavior over the years. My reaction was (1) there they go again, and (2) POOOOOOR AGGIES.

Lowsmoke -
 
They ran 3 times in the 3rd quarter. And they completely abandoned Tannehill as a run threat.
 
If you’ve been gouging someone for an entire half, you don’t go to the Run N Shoot because your first couple of runs went for 2 yards. OSU didn’t bring extra men against the run.

you don’t go to the Run N Shoot because your first couple of runs went for 2 yards

Greg Davis begs to differ with you.

Damn, Scipio just beat me to the Moneyball reference.

Yes, football is more complex, and doesn’t have the discrete interactions that make for great sabremetrics (gridimetrics?), but there are some strategies that are worth pursuing:

- Less blitzing?
- Far less punting?

Good stuff.

They ran 3 times in the 3rd quarter. And they completely abandoned Tannehill as a run threat.

We also abandoned Michael who had ripped off 11 YPC in the first half. One carry in Q3 and that was it for the game.

Like that guy in Arkansas who never punts or kicks the ball off without an onsides kick.

ag96 -
 
Yep. Michael was killing it, but he only had 6 carries on the game. 6 carries, 62 yards, longest run was 18. Take away his longest run and he’s still averaging 8.8 yards per carry. Sustainable? Probably not. At least worth exploring? I would hope.

ST and roach: I am also amazed that more people aren’t paying more practical attention(as opposed to yeah that’s pretty cool)
 to people like Kevin Kelley http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/scorecasting/09/15/kelley.pulaski/index.html

His basic strategies are very statistically driven and highly successful, and his primary two non-standard principles are supported by research by David Romer a Berkeley economist in ‘‘It’s Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say? A Dynamic Programming Analysis of Football Strategy"

“You don’t want to take your offense completely out of its rhythm (if quick counts causing defensive confusion are how you scored, continue doing it) but all things being equal, if you have a commanding lead, you don’t need to snap the ball with 18 seconds left on the play clock.”

My recollection is that the 2008 game v. Tech turned partly on some of this, but I don’t have the heart to go back and confirm it by watching it again.

“The moral of this story? Any organization (MB are you listening) that can reduce its idiocy ratio by 35% or better can rule the world.”

GDGD has to be worth at least a solid 20%, right?

football teams in the Ivy league are about as competitive as a 4A Texas team?

I think you’re being a little overly critical. More years ago than I care to think about, following a Princeton-Colgate game (the good guys were thrashed), mine host asked me “So, Tex, what do you think about Ivy League football?” I considered paraphrasing Gandhi and saying it would be a good idea, but instead I demonstrated my great command of tactful behavior and said “Hell, Skip, there’s prolly a half-dozen 4A schools in Texas could beat either one of the teams we saw today.” He laughed. I used The Look to let him know I wasn’t pulling his laig. He blanched, and responded “Well, ha-ha, you may think so, but we’re talking about men against boys…” I said, “Yeah, but those ‘boys’ are three or four inches taller, fifty pounds heavier, a coupla seconds faster… and better-coached.”

Of course, now that’s 5A, not 4A that I’d be talking about, so…

Hmmm… come to think of it, them Ivory Leaguers’d have a damn tough time with Aledo or LT, wouldn’t they?

There are plenty of smart coaches, but sometimes they’re smart in very specific ways.

That is very well said. Some of these guys can figure out sixteen different ways to get you to cover Dez Bryant with a middle linebacker, but they automatically go into a dime defense and rush three when they’re up by 10 points in the third quarter.

Football is a simple game.
Score points. Win.
See? Anybody can do it.

Agreed that moneyball sabremetrics analysis applies more to baseball than a true team sport like football, but there are plenty of advantages in plain sight that are there for the taking if someone would just have the balls to do it. Huck or some other stats guy did some modelling on the fact that it is pretty clear that teams should go for it on 4th down and onside kick it a lot more than they do.

I think trading Harsin for GDGD has gotten us to -25%. Now we just need to pick up an additional 10% reduction via Special Teams and we are golden.

Memo to Mack – concentrate on clapping. Let the Coordinators call the plays… and the T-Os, ’K?

OSU’s clock management still deserves an F.

When they went into the victory formation,they did not realize ATM still had a time out.

That made the safety scramble necessary.

Scipio-

Football is not ready for the kind of statistical analysis and application of probability and game theory you mentioned. Recall Belichick going for it on 4th down from his own 28 in the 4th qtr up 6 in 2009. Even though the numbers show he had a greater win probability going for it, you would have thought the world was coming to an end the way people reacted. We haven’t seen anything like it since.

To your article, great piece by the way, it’s amazing to me how often coaches do exactly the same things the A&M and OSU coaching staffs did.

Once we got the first and goal against Tech in 2008 we should have started draining the play clock, but we did not. Again, I’m no football genius just a casual fan but I was screaming at the TV that night as we kept snapping the ball with 20 seconds on the play clock.

But…what the hey.

Coaches coach not to lose.

I did not tape the game, but I recall OSU getting a little more defensive pressure on the QB before Sherman started going braindead. Possibly the other way around, but in any case, the 1st half recipe was the correct one.

I am not a fan of coaches being their own coordinators. The HC job during the game is to manage the team, not look for specific matchups like a coordinator would do. I know Sherman has backup, but I don’t see how any one person can focus on both sides of the ball if they are responsible for play calling. That meltdown you talked about should have been stopped and addressed on at least one side of the ball.

Also, Leach was on to something in Lubbock when he would consistently use all four downs to make a first down. This alone probably got him at least five more wins than he would have had if he were more conventional.

The converse to this that really can’t be measure has to be the effect on the team’s psyche, especially 18-22 year olds.

Hook ’em!

I think Harsin coaches to make first downs until you are positive you can run the clock out taking a knee. I don’t want to think about what GD did.

Recall Belichick going for it on 4th down from his own 28 in the 4th qtr up 6 in 2009.

Hmmmm… worked for Mackovic….

Roll Left worked brilliantly, “worked” being the operative word. But it was definitely not conventional. What would have happened if it would have failed and Nebraska takes over at our 28?

My point is not that it’s wrong, just that the football world is not ready for that type of thinking as the norm.

Roll Left was a bad call that worked. It was designed to make a first down only but turned into a very long gain was very lucky for us and for Mackovic. Well, lucky for Mackovic anyway.

Scipio, let me make a defense of Bill Young’s soft coverage (not having rewatched the game yet) and tell me if I’m wrong.

The Aggies have 7 minutes to score, the cowboys present soft coverage to Tannehill who slowly picks his way down the field and scores leaving less than 3 minutes on the clock. Had OSU done anything at all on offense the game is essential over, but they don’t.

They run little off the clock and Tannehill has 1:30 to lead a touchdown drive about 65 yards down the field.

From here it appeared to me that Young was still playing a pretty soft coverage with the linebackers taking deep drops but I haven’t reviewed it and could definitely be wrong.

No longer afforded a huge cushion of game clock, Tannehill immediately throws an interception trying to complete a deep out against deep drops. OSU wins. What if that was consistent with their scouting report on Tannehill? Put pressure on him and force him to beat soft coverage downfield and good things happen? Anyways, I didn’t mind the 4-5 minute Aggy TD drive against soft coverage if they liked the prospect of making Tannehill beat them with decision making and downfield throws, which they probably did.

I fashion myself as somewhat of a masochist, so I enjoyed the read. Superb breakdown.

Here’s to some coherence in the headsets against the Pigs this weekend. For his drab, boring demeanor, Sherm rarely gets outsmarted on offense.

“Roll Left was a bad call that worked.”

No roll left was a great call based on Nebraska’s tendency to sell out to stop the run in short yardage situations. There was nothing lucky about it.

In fact, that is exactly the type of thinking that is being espoused here. Information based decision making vs. football cliche and historical precedent.

I thought the Aggy punt on OSU’s side of the field, and the OSU decision not to go for it on 4rth and goal were also questionable, the latter less so. When Sherman punted down multiple scores he doomed his team to not have enough time left later.

Tex Long:

Re: Ivy League ball.

One of the stories in Friday Night Lights that stuck with me was about the kid that ended up Harvard, played football for a year or so and quit. His reason: The Permian program ran at a higher level.

On the game-clinching INT, I’m pretty sure Oklahoma State rushed 3 and dropped 8, which I was yelling at them not to do on the TV. It worked because the pass was inaccurate and was tipped.

Bob, the same was said about Ivory Christian at TCU. Part of it was Permian meant more to them than playing in college.

I was not being entirely facetious, then or now…

Isn’t this standard procedure for NFL coaches that are coaching in college? I have no idea what Sherman was thinking, but it’s probably similar to whatever Bill Calahan, Charle Wise, John Mackovic, etc where thinking before him.

You have two elite backs, a strong line, and a mediocre QB. Why on earth would you try to be a passing team?

Every team should have a clock coach who’s only job is to manage time and time outs. That has to be worth a win a season.

I assumed “PE Major” was going to be a reference to how testy the aTm staff was on references to poor conditioning.

They were very upset at their post-game presser when discussing whether their team was out of shape. And there were some rather humorous implications from the maroon media contingent that maybe OSU’s hurry up was “ethically questionable”. Sniff! I’m gonna miss these guys!

Meanwhile…. Methinks maybe the Diaz “wear ’em down” philosophy has merit.

Maybe Bennie Wylie was an even better hire than we first thought….

runthebone -
 
You’re definitely right. But they squat down on A&M’s intermediate routes. They didn’t give ground. Watch them both jump Fuller’s route. The previous series, it was let ‘em catch it and tackle, boys.
 
Nickel -
 
I don’t agree with conceding a score up 10 when your previous five defensive series were complete domination with 7:13 still on the clock. You’re on a 34-0 streak and the other team is melting down on the field screaming at their own coaches – what on earth are you changing?
 
The drive was also the Aggie defense’s first chance of the half to rest, get their composure, and get coached up. Very similar to what they benefitted from the in the first half. OSU was killing A&M with very basic stuff. It’s not surprising that some time in front of a white board benefitted them.
 
It’s about killer instinct.
 
And Tannehill didn’t have to lead a touchdown drive. The score was 30-27. 1:47 is plenty of time to go 35 yards for a field goal. Or 66 for the TD.

Re: Harvard. Say what you will about Ivy League competitiveness, but a Harvard QB just beat the Patriots on Sunday.

Keep in mind with “Roll Left” Mackovic told James Brown to not throw the ball under any circumstances.

Thanks, holdem.

You’re definitely right. But they squat down on A&M’s intermediate routes. They didn’t give ground. Watch them both jump Fuller’s route. The previous series, it was let ‘em catch it and tackle, boys.

Corners on both sides also got away with a LOT of contact all day. The only PI called was on a ball that looked uncatchable, go figure.

Congrats! You and Matt Millen are the only two people who thought that ball uncatchable. That’s some select company there! And even he recanted after seeing multiple replays.

Just wanted to say thanks to Dagga for keeping it civil and saying (calmly) what I wasn’t able to earlier. I don’t blame the Ags for leaving, but I don’t feel like Texas should be taking heat for what was in their best interest either.

One of the many reasons I love this site is that we get some quality input from Aggies, Sooners, and even a Red Raider. ColoradoAg adds something to this site, even when I don’t agree with him, so props to him for handling himself the way he did on this thread. Unfortunately he seems to be the exception, so in the general sense I stand by what I said before: fuck the Aggies, it’s a tradition I can live without for a while.

As far as us game planning for Iowas State instead of A&M, you’re probably right CO Ag. Besides, all we have to do is defend the pass in the 2nd half and you guys are screwed anyway, not a whole lot of preparation needed there.

Scipio, the answer to your question is easy—-the Aggies were the losers, but we knew that at kickoff.

If Blackmon just holds on to the dang ball, most of this post is moot.

Or does Aggy then score with 1:13 left and go for an onside?

AMAZING that longhorn fans can be so negative about coaches when theirs are the worst at utilizing the incredible talent they recruit. MB has to be the most under-achieving coach in the country, based on the talent into and out of Austin.

Great stuff, Scipio, and some good comments following, IMO.
I’ve often thought the prevent defense really only means ‘almost preventing you from winning.’ Sure, it’s easy for us not with our butts on the line to scream to be aggressive when a quick six can result. But, ironically, the fear of losing with that overly conservative approach often results in that very thing.
As you cite, it’s night and day between going to soft coverage with 1:13 left than 7:13.

THE RIGHT ORDINARY MICHAEL SHERMAN, ESQ.: Haue at thee!

HIS SERENE MEDIOCRITY, THE QUADRAGENARIAN MICHAEL GUNDIE, GCMG: A hitte, a verie palpable Hitte!

T.R.O.M.S.E.: Do you yield, sirrah?

H.S.M.T.Q.M.G.G.C.M.G.: Hmmm? Did you ſay ſomethinge?

T.R.O.M.S.E.: Verily, ſince I bear you ſolche fraternal lovve as I ovght, & as we (the bothe of us) bear from our babtiſmalle day the mickle Name of that dux of the Heavanlie Host, I bid you anſwer if you would maintain perſuit of this, our manlie Contention?

H.S.M.T.Q.M.G.G.C.M.G.: What tyme do you make it?

T.R.O.M.S.E.: Abovt ſix belles.

H.S.M.T.Q.M.G.G.C.M.G.: ſodde and blaſt, give vs a biſcuit.

Good points Scipio, conceeded.

“bright orange cowboy said:
September 28th, 2011 at 7:01 am
AMAZING that longhorn fans can be so negative about coaches when theirs are the worst at utilizing the incredible talent they recruit. MB has to be the most under-achieving coach in the country, based on the talent into and out of Austin.”

BOC,
You obviously missed out on the multi-year vitriolic flood poured upon UT’s/MB’s former offensive coordinator, Greg Davis (known in the vernacular as GDGD). Gundy is a good coach (and a man! too) who has built the Pokes into a Top 10 program, with a little help from T. Boone. While your argument about MB’s past underachievement (relative to the talent that Texas has recruited) has some merit, if you have watched MB and UT football since he cleaned house and replaced his top assistants after last year’s face plant season, you would understand why most Longhorn fans are feeling very encouraged.

Well said Poofy. To return to the point, I wouldn’t mind seeing some coaches questioned, and questioned HARD about some of the changes and “adjustments” they’ve made to successful game plans. I nominate Gary Kubiak to be first up.

Surely the ags learned something from the meltdown. I doubt we can count on that type of stupidity in November should circumstances reoccur.

If Colt McCoy gets a little more air under the ball on the last play against Nebraska a couple of years ago Mack Brown becomes the unassailable reference standard for horrible clock management.

We prevailed there on sheer luck.

Gregg Easterbrook on Tuesday Morning Quarterback has been espousing data driven decisions for years, apparently to little notice amongst the PE teachers.

Doesn’t Mack Brown carry a card to tell him when to go for two?

Caradoc -
 
Yep – pretty much all coaches carry that little laminate.

Not that anyone cares, but Bear Bryant was supposedly the first to deploy a “when to go for two” chart. And that was before they invented lamination. And for those of you into other moribund trivia, he also invented the “holding up four fingers at the start of the fourth quarter” thing.

The four fingers at the beginning of the fourth quarter is lame now that everyone does it.

At Arizona State fans jingled their keys during kickoffs. I’ve seen that a couple other places. What’s up with that? I mean, is there a reason for it?

And, Jake, to add to your trivia, I believe that after one season of carrying the “go for two” card around in his wallet and it getting all tattered, Bear Bryant himself invented lamination. Look it up.

Hell, Phenom, I wouldn’t doubt it! In fact, I’m pretty sure The Bear invented football. At least that’s all I ever heard from my fellow retard friends/Bammite fans growing up in L.A. (Lower Alabama).

Agree on the four fingers. It had muy Mojo back when the Tide first started it, but not anymore.

I got nothing on the key rattling ritual. Do they take them out of their pants pockets? If not, it may not be the keys they’re janglin’. As my grandson would say “somebody should goggle that”.

Excellent breakdown Scipio.

You probably won’t see this, 3-4 weeks after the fact — but Bielema’s end-of-game clock-management vs. Michigan State seemed to take this topic to a whole new level. The guy called not one but TWO time-outs to help the Spartans save time on the drive that ended in the instant-replay hail-mary.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen that. Beyond Les Milesian, even.

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