Adjusted Stats through 10/15/11

by Huck L Berry on Oct 17, 2011 12:38 AM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

My adjusted stats have a new home starting this week at AdjustedStats.com. As of now it's all the same pages at a new domain name with a new format but I hope to be redesigning that format as time allows. Which means I'll probably be too lazy, too busy, or both. If you have any issues with the site, let me know. Anyway, that's why the "ratings-stats" directory structure still exists as it was a quick and dirty transfer for the time being.

LSU moved into the #1 spot of my EWP ratings for the first time this week almost entirely on the strength of their schedule, which rates vastly superior to Alabama's to this point and better than any of the other top ten teams. Lurking at #6 are the Wisconsin Badgers who are being justifiably held down by an extremely weak schedule. The Badgers actually hold the highest power rating this week but other than #17 Nebraska have played the #67, #70, #98, and #111 teams this year. Finally, at #9 is more evidence for the Bill Snyder is a Warlock theory, which is ready to be put on the shelf right next to the theory of gravity. I have to think that he watched Ron Prince's tenure with a sense of bewilderment. Other than when he played Texas, of course.

Meanwhile, there's a lot to digest on the Texas team stats page, not the least of which is the continuing struggle of the offense. About the best aspect of that unit so far is the passing game on those occasions where the pass is actually thrown. Texas is 23rd in adjusted pass efficiency and 25th in adjusted yards per pass attempt, but the ugly numbers are the #98 ranking in sacks allowed per pass play and that the 25th yards per pass attempt drops to 49th in adjusted yards per pass play including sacks. On the bright side, Sir Foswhitt has our kickoff return unit up to 11th in the country this year.

The other good news is the bye week before the Kansas game, but after that are four games that the numbers say should be competitive struggles and one that we shouldn't be expected to win against A&M. It should definitely be an exciting conclusion to the year. Our current win percentage probabilities in the last 6 games according to the analyzer are 88%, 60%, 36%, 38%, 19%, and 46% in that order. That adds up to less than three expected wins but with rounding a 3-3 record. I'm going back to being an optimist as I'm hoping that we come out of that stretch with a 4-2 record for an 8-4 regular season. Hoping being the key word.

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Comments

That stat ranking is sad considering how both of our QBs are supposedly mobile. That and the fact that there have been many examples of said QBs getting rid of the ball into pressure and, thus, not taking a sack like a seasoned veteran might. This tells me that – as low as 98 is – it’s probably somewhat gifted.

by knoxtnhorn on Oct 17, 2011 7:52 AM CDT reply actions

In your last 6, only KU should be a certain win. BU & TT can beat you if have some turnovers. They have good offenses but lousy defenses. Mizzou & KState will be tough games, winable but would not expect you to be favored. I don’t think you match up well with A&M as our D is better at stopping the run, since we make every Qb have a Heisman type performance against us. Your Oline play should allow us to get Qb pressure which is key for us. That plus your passing game is probably not good enough to take advantage of us this year. I’d say 3-3 is about right for the rest of the way but it could realistically be 5-1 or 2-4 depending upon the luck of the draw.

by KilgoreTrout on Oct 17, 2011 8:02 AM CDT reply actions

Taking into account the learning curve the team is on, I will adjust your probabilities. The next 2 games, I reduce the loss percentage by 30%, the next 2 by 40%, and the final 2 by 50%. The adjusted percentages become 92%, 72%, 62%, 53%, 60%, and 73%. (e.g. for KU, loss percentage of 12% X .3 – 3.6% [round up to 4%], so the win % increases from 88% to 92%).

And yes, I do like my orange-tinted glasses.

by Rick on Oct 17, 2011 10:43 AM CDT reply actions

so you’re saying we have a 0.631% chance of going 6-0? It’d be sweet if Vegas were giving 158:1 odds on going 6-0 right now.

by IP Guy on Oct 17, 2011 2:25 PM CDT reply actions

I think most of our hope for the season comes from continued steady improvement in multiple phases that far outpaces the improvement of our upcoming foes. I think that’s fairly reasonable.

I wish I could be confident of us giving Aggy another demoralizing loss before they leave us. I’ll probably convince myself that it’s totally likely before the game.

by Nickel Rover on Oct 17, 2011 6:09 PM CDT reply actions

Me too Nickel. Me too.

The product we’re putting on the field for Aggy’s send away game is depressing. Why couldn’t this have been the 2005 team? As it is, Aggy will get the, hypothetical, last laugh.

by knoxtnhorn on Oct 18, 2011 8:09 AM CDT reply actions