Adjusted Stats through 10/15/11

My adjusted stats have a new home starting this week at AdjustedStats.com. As of now it's all the same pages at a new domain name with a new format but I hope to be redesigning that format as time allows. Which means I'll probably be too lazy, too busy, or both. If you have any issues with the site, let me know. Anyway, that's why the "ratings-stats" directory structure still exists as it was a quick and dirty transfer for the time being.

LSU moved into the #1 spot of my EWP ratings for the first time this week almost entirely on the strength of their schedule, which rates vastly superior to Alabama's to this point and better than any of the other top ten teams. Lurking at #6 are the Wisconsin Badgers who are being justifiably held down by an extremely weak schedule. The Badgers actually hold the highest power rating this week but other than #17 Nebraska have played the #67, #70, #98, and #111 teams this year. Finally, at #9 is more evidence for the Bill Snyder is a Warlock theory, which is ready to be put on the shelf right next to the theory of gravity. I have to think that he watched Ron Prince's tenure with a sense of bewilderment. Other than when he played Texas, of course.

Meanwhile, there's a lot to digest on the Texas team stats page, not the least of which is the continuing struggle of the offense. About the best aspect of that unit so far is the passing game on those occasions where the pass is actually thrown. Texas is 23rd in adjusted pass efficiency and 25th in adjusted yards per pass attempt, but the ugly numbers are the #98 ranking in sacks allowed per pass play and that the 25th yards per pass attempt drops to 49th in adjusted yards per pass play including sacks. On the bright side, Sir Foswhitt has our kickoff return unit up to 11th in the country this year.

The other good news is the bye week before the Kansas game, but after that are four games that the numbers say should be competitive struggles and one that we shouldn't be expected to win against A&M. It should definitely be an exciting conclusion to the year. Our current win percentage probabilities in the last 6 games according to the analyzer are 88%, 60%, 36%, 38%, 19%, and 46% in that order. That adds up to less than three expected wins but with rounding a 3-3 record. I'm going back to being an optimist as I'm hoping that we come out of that stretch with a 4-2 record for an 8-4 regular season. Hoping being the key word.

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