BCS Analysis – The Undefeateds Take 2

Well, that didn't take long. Wisconsin and Oklahoma took themselves out of the undefeateds group and made this week's analysis a lot shorter. I'm going to stay brief and only update last week's analysis because there's not much point to going further than that until the result of the 11/5 championship semifinal between Alabama and LSU is known.

The BCS standings are posted here along with an assortment of BCS propaganda, but I choose not to read that stuff anymore. A quick reminder from last week, I will use the normal approach of the power rating and standard deviation of each team available on my EWP ratings page. Each team's remaining schedule, including assumed opponents in conference championship games where applicable, will be posted along with their probability of a victory in each game. Their current BCS information will also be posted, as well as their current schedule strength and forecast final schedule strength via Kenneth Massey's BCS rankings (the best non-MOV schedule source). Massey's final schedule calculation does not include a conference championship game forecast and is also based on last week's numbers as he hasn't released his updated rankings yet. I will revise the tables below once I see his new numbers.

So let's get the everyone's favorite part of my posts, the tables.

LSU (BCS - #1 - 0.9702) - Current Schedule 12, Final Schedule 12

Site Opponent Win %
Road Alabama 42.5%
Home Western Kentucky 99.8%
Road Mississippi 99.5%
Home Arkansas 93.9%
Neutral South Carolina 88.8%
---- Undefeated Prob. 35.2%

Alabama (BCS - #2 - 0.9627) - Current Schedule 22, Final Schedule 13

Site Opponent Win %
Home LSU 57.5%
Road Mississippi St. 98.5%
Home Georgia Southern 100%
Road Auburn 97.7%
Neutral South Carolina 91.8%
---- Undefeated Prob. 50.8%

Probability of an Undefeated SEC Champion - 86.0%

Oklahoma St. (BCS - #3 - 0.9240) - Current Schedule 10, Final Schedule 6

Site Opponent Win %
Home Baylor 95.8%
Home Kansas St. 93.4%
Road Texas Tech 84.7%
Road Iowa St. 99.3%
Home Oklahoma 51.5%
---- Undefeated Prob. 38.8%

Kansas St. (BCS - #11 - 0.6681) - Current Schedule 29, Final Schedule 9

Site Opponent Win %
Home Oklahoma 30.1%
Road Oklahoma St. 6.6%
Home Texas A&M 52.9%
Road Texas 68.9%
Home Iowa St. 99.2%
---- Undefeated Prob. 0.7%

Probability of an Undefeated Big 12 Champion - 39.5%

Boise St. (BCS - #4 - 0.8302) - Current Schedule 45, Final Schedule 73

Site Opponent Win %
Road UNLV 96.4%
Home TCU 87.7%
Road San Diego St. 93.7%
Home Wyoming 98.6%
Home New Mexico 100%
---- Undefeated Prob. 78.1%

Clemson (BCS - #5 - 0.8240) - Current Schedule 26, Final Schedule 19

Site Opponent Win %
Road Georgia Tech 69.4%
Home Wake Forest 94.3%
Road North Carolina St. 96.2%
Road South Carolina 50.4%
Neutral Virginia Tech 77.7%
---- Undefeated Prob. 24.7%

Stanford (BCS - #6 - 0.8124) - Current Schedule 91, Final Schedule 53

Site Opponent Win %
Road Southern Cal 83.3%
Road Oregon St. 96.1%
Home Oregon 57.2%
Home California 97.9%
Home Notre Dame 89.6%
Home Arizona St. 88.7%
---- Undefeated Prob. 35.7%

Houston (BCS - #17 - 0.3676) - Current Schedule 104, Final Schedule 96

Site Opponent Win %
Home Rice 96.2%
Road UAB 92.5%
Road Tulane 89.5%
Home SMU 73.0%
Road Tulsa 71.5%
Home Southern Miss 63.9%
---- Undefeated Prob. 26.6%

THE PART WHERE I SUMMARIZE

First, a few probabilities of events we're all interested in:

Undefeated Big 12 and SEC - 34.0%
Undefeated All 6 - 0.6%
Undefeated All 4 AQ - 3.0%
Undefeated 3 AQ - 19.6%
Undefeated 2 AQ - 41.8%
Undefeated 1 AQ - 31.5%
Undefeated 0 AQ - 4.1%

Oklahoma's loss significantly eased the road for Boise State and the others trailing Oklahoma State. The Big 12 is separating and is now a clear #1 in Sagarin's ratings, and justifiably so. No argument that the SEC has the two best teams but they get more cakewalks in conference than the Big 12 schools this year. It's one of the reasons that I have been converted to believing that a 10-team conference is the best design for conference strength and stability (everyone plays every year means both no avoiding strong teams and also development of rivalries and familiarity in the conference), but that's for a different post.

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