Texas-Kansas Football Preview: Scouting The Kansas Offense
Eyepatch!
I was surprised to find when I started digging into KU's offense that they are, in fact, somewhat adequate and suffer mainly from a defense so putrid that they find themselves out of most games by the early 3rd quarter and are forced to operate in the strange parallel universe of LeadLand, where opposing defenses pass rush with impunity, give a little cushion in the secondary, and shrug if you run for 4-5 yards a pop. It creates a distorted statistical world, much like the metrics the Dallas Cowboys used to draft Shante Carver in the mid 90s.
Kansas has hung with or opened leads on a number of opponents (Texas Tech, OU) in the 1st half but eventually the offense gets solved and the defense sinks the entire game plan with their putridity. Kansas averages 30 ppg and 400+ ypg, but it's hard to evaluate exactly how and what's being achieved when the game still matters. That would require me to watch far more Kansas football than I'd like. It's notable that they've averaged 269 ypg in their last two contests after averaging 460 in their first 5.
QB
Jordan Webb is the Jayhawk MVP. He's undersized with decent mobility and throws an accurate ball. Hello, Pretty Good College Football Spread QB! Apparently, though you exist in abundance, you're impossible for Texas to locate on the recruiting trail to staff its depth chart. Webb is 114 of 170 for 1408 and 12 TD/5 int. 8.3 Yards Per Attempt is getting it done at the QB position and less than 3% of his balls are intercepted - probably why he's a Top 20 NCAA efficiency QB. Because Webb is 5-11 in his bare feet, you want to keep him in the pocket and minimize his sight lines. The Jayhawks understand this and move him around. In my limited viewing of the Jayhawks when they've had early initial success, halftime adjustments have generally shut down their offense when they shade coverage to Beshears, stop the run on 1st down, and dare Webb to beat them downfield.
RB
James Sims (4.4 ypc) and Darrian Miller (4.1 ypc) see the bulk of the carries in the KU backfield and they're mediocre FBS RBs. Not much else to say. Turner Gill will be stubborn with the running game if it sees any success as it's a useful way for Kansas to possess the ball and make the game shorter.
OL
They returned five starters here from last year (more or less). This is actually a semi-strength of the team and they're better pass protectors than their statistics indicate, since they've generally been rendered one dimensional by halftime. OTs Tanner Hawkinson and Jeff Spikes (61 combined college starts) are a solid pair of tackles and both would probably be starting for us. Let that sink in for a while.
WR/TE
DJ Beshears is a dynamic playmaker (23-328-3td) and the rest of their WRs are just dudes. TE Tim Biere has caught 24 balls and I'm in awe of any FBS football team has solved the riddle of recruiting a 6-4 250 pound guy who can block and catch. WR Kale Pick upholds the Jayhawk tradition of (successful?) QB to WR conversions. Presumably, someone with the surname Pick wasn't long for QB. That's like being named Alex Pillowfight and playing nose tackle or Broderick Runzverywhite at cornerback. The Shepherd kid lit up McNeese St early in the year and has been AWOL since except for a second half against Oklahoma State.
Pay attention to Beshears and tackle underneath and this group is as manageable as gonorrhea.
Summary
Kansas has started some games well and put up points in the 1st half against quality opponents, but they tend to fall off a cliff after opponents get a good look at what they're doing. I expect KU to have some success on offense (which will be accompanied by much howling and wailing that KANSAS JUST THREW A COMPLETE PASS!), but it would be shocking if they manage to put up anything beyond 14-24 points.
Call it a 42-16 Texas win or something.
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You’re my boy blue!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCnZqg1RgGA
by tx2step on Oct 27, 2011 1:55 PM CDT reply actions
Scip, thanks for the analysis. But, on a side note, did Jesus, Big Cigar, the Asset, or all the above get into hot water for the pouting mccoy deal? The reason I ask is because other sites keep bringing that up. Just wondering if someone was threatening this site with a libel suit or something? Personally, I hope not because you fellas are the best.
by Fanatico on Oct 27, 2011 1:59 PM CDT reply actions
Did Mangino ravage the contents of the cupboard on his way out? It seems rather bare save for a few stale crumbs.
by ACE on Oct 27, 2011 2:10 PM CDT reply actions
txstep -
That song always conjures that scene for me.
Fanatico -
No.
dedfischer -
Here’s where you explain why you trailed this team at halftime.
by Scipio Tex on Oct 27, 2011 2:12 PM CDT reply actions
Hey Scipio,
You know of any places in SF I can catch the game? I’m not sure if any of the sports bar has the LHN.
by vortic on Oct 27, 2011 2:15 PM CDT reply actions
Now playing center, Aurthor Iticfingers. Kicking for the Jayhawks, Toby Footloose.
This is fun.
At linebacker, Ray Charles, Stevie Wonder and José Feliciano.
Back to the game notes. I fully expect to see a lot of running by UT, plus a few throws from guys not named Ash or McCoy.
by Texoz on Oct 27, 2011 2:16 PM CDT reply actions
Was there ever anyone else who could give you profound, philosophical lyrics alongside a melody that demands you hoist your chick up onto your shoulders and flick your lighter up into the air like Kansas? Dual threat, imo.
by bigdukesix on Oct 27, 2011 2:22 PM CDT reply actions
Is it possible we can trade some of our “just dudes” at TE for Beshears?
ACE, it’s pretty amazing the difference between what I saw in the 2004 replay of KU players and now and that was before Mangino got them revved up. I’m sure someone will remind me that we’ve had some dropoff since 2004 too, but wow!
Maybe HipHop or someone closer can opine as to whether it’s a question of talent, coaching or both and what the preliminary assessment of Gill is at this point. I hope for better days for the Rock Chalks. They are good people, IMO.
OBTW, thanks Scip for an actual football post—-second in as many days. Your efforts are greatly appreciated and I doubt you had much film to work with on these two. These last twelve days have been pretty bleak. I hope this is the last season where we have two bye weeks, especially after a loss.
by Jake Lonergan on Oct 27, 2011 2:25 PM CDT reply actions
Doesn’t Roderick have a brother named Blake or something?
by tdwalsh on Oct 27, 2011 2:26 PM CDT reply actions
Turner Gill had an impressive run with Buffalo. That makes me wonder, what’s the matter with Kansas?
When Mangino was fired, was there a full blown exodus of staff and veteran players? Did Mangino stop recruiting well during his final two years? Kansas wasn’t THIS bad during those final Mangino years, or was it, and I’m just remembering differently?
by lark47 on Oct 27, 2011 2:28 PM CDT reply actions
Maybe HipHop or someone closer can opine as to whether it’s a question of talent, coaching or both and what the preliminary assessment of Gill is at this point
I’d like to read this assessment as well. Gill was clearly overhyped coming into this job but I didn’t think it would be nearly this bad.
by bigdukesix on Oct 27, 2011 2:28 PM CDT reply actions
I am curious if more fans will see this game in the stadium or on TV. The good thing about putting it on LHN is no one is going to see all the empty seats.
by Nunna Yo Bizness on Oct 27, 2011 2:32 PM CDT reply actions
Mangino went 8-5 and 5-7 in his last two years. In the 5-7 season, Kansas was 1-7 in Big 12 play and finished dead last in the North. They were clearly trending downward.
Over his 8 years, KU was 4-20 against the Big 12 South (2 of those wins over Baylor). The BCS win was a great achievement, but KU football has been living a little bit of a lie for a while now.
by Scipio Tex on Oct 27, 2011 2:35 PM CDT reply actions
Kansas has hung with or opened leads on a number of opponents (Texas Tech, OU) in the 1st half but eventually the offense gets solved and the defense sinks the entire game plan with their putridity.
You mention this two more times which is fitting because it can’t be mentioned enough. Aside from the OkSU debacle and the KSU game, Kansas has been in pretty good shape going into halftime of every game. The problem is, 15 minutes just isn’t enough time to fire up the PS3 and concoct a 2nd half game plan on NCAA Football 2010 (2011 and ‘12 aren’t in the budget due to Mangino’s buyout and Gill’s ridiculous contract.
Webb has been very surprising this year and has taken care of the ball pretty well, though his 3 int’s against Tech were brutal to the team.
The stable of RB’s is one of the very few bright spots on this team. Miller is tough to get a clean shot on and always seems to get positive yardage. Tony Pierson is a homerun threat every time he touches the ball. Seems he gets at least one 30+ yard run every game. That run is always negated by a stupid penalty that had nothing at all to do with the play.
by Triston27 on Oct 27, 2011 2:39 PM CDT reply actions
When Mangino was fired, was there a full blown exodus of staff and veteran players? Did Mangino stop recruiting well during his final two years? Kansas wasn’t THIS bad during those final Mangino years, or was it, and I’m just remembering differently?
The AD at the time didn’t let Gill keep anyone from the new staff and most of the playmakers were seniors. There was a recruiting drop off but I think it’s a lot more to that. As I stated, KU has actually competed and been in 5 of the 7 games at halftime. But the second halves are just dismal and I think that’s more on coaching than players.
by Triston27 on Oct 27, 2011 2:44 PM CDT reply actions
So these teams that are figuring out KU in the second half, are they not scouting them?
by Texoz on Oct 27, 2011 2:51 PM CDT reply actions
There’s a difference between tape and reality. KU is a heavy play action team. Once you pick up those rhythms, the game slows down and you stop taking false steps.
by Scipio Tex on Oct 27, 2011 2:54 PM CDT reply actions
I think it has to do with opposing staffs making adjustments while KU seems to go into ultra conservative mode.
by Triston27 on Oct 27, 2011 2:55 PM CDT reply actions
“Presumably, someone with the surname Pick wasn’t long for QB. That’s like being named Alex Pillowfight and playing nose tackle or Broderick Runzverywhite at cornerback.”
(standing slow clap)
by NateHeupel on Oct 27, 2011 3:06 PM CDT reply actions
Triston, thanks for the responses. I hope you guys get it figured out soon.
Scip those were some eyepopping stats, especially Mangino’s overall record against the South. Appreciate it.
by Jake Lonergan on Oct 27, 2011 3:07 PM CDT reply actions
I invoke the imprimatur of the Crown Prinicipality of Transitivia.
Oklahoma State and Oklahoma defeated Kansas by an average of 36 points, and defeated Texas by an average of 25 points.
After feeding this into my Univac HAL 9000, this indicates that the Longhorns will win by 11.
You heard it here first, loyal subjects.
by Arriviste on Oct 27, 2011 3:15 PM CDT reply actions
I didn’t know Tyrion Lannister was part of “Kansas”! Imagine he had trouble reaching the high hat.
by Ojnab Bob on Oct 27, 2011 3:20 PM CDT reply actions
Turner Gill had an impressive run with Buffalo. That makes me wonder, what’s the matter with Kansas?
It wasn’t really an impressive run, though. He had one winning season (8-6) and that was fueled by an historic 26 recoveries of opponents’ fumbles. Over the past 5 years, the next closest total is 21. In that one winning season, the Bulls won three games in OT. That team was just plain lucky.
by Phenomenal Smith on Oct 27, 2011 3:21 PM CDT reply actions
Arriviste -
Absolutely. There’s nothing more reliable in projecting college football than the transitive property.
Ojnab, great call.
The Imp is clearly wearing Tom Cruise’s lifts.
by Scipio Tex on Oct 27, 2011 3:24 PM CDT reply actions
I think Darrien Miller will be better than just an average FBS back. He was the number 1 Rivals recruit out of the state of Missouri. Mizzou never offered him. I never learned why, but he did have some trouble with the law while in high school. Maybe that was it.
Tony Pierson was a Mizzou verbal commit for a long time when he decommited to go to Arkansas. That never happened, and he’s at KU. He’s going to be good. Like Triston said, a home run threat. FWIW, Mizzou saw him as a CB.
by Phenomenal Smith on Oct 27, 2011 3:29 PM CDT reply actions
Be honest: How long have you been waiting to work gonorrhea into a post?
by Bateshorn on Oct 27, 2011 3:31 PM CDT reply actions
Phenomenal -
The best gift a non-elite coach can possess is the good sense to shimmy up the coaching ladder when he’s blessed with a couple of good seasons at a bad place. Get somewhere with natural advantages ASAP before people catch on to a novel scheme, that surprisingly good group of seniors graduates, or luck simply evens out.
And the Athletic Directors (and it’s all of them) who don’t spend any time even attempting to understand advanced statistics are baseball GMs pre-Moneyball.
Football is still the least evolved sport with respect to slaying the priestly caste.
by Scipio Tex on Oct 27, 2011 3:43 PM CDT reply actions
Scipio Tex Said:
“Football is still the least evolved sport with respect to slaying the priestly caste.”
You mind elaborating on this. It looks interesting, but also seems fairly esoteric.
Unless I’m an idiot.
Don’t answer that
by Team Dirty Leg on Oct 27, 2011 3:54 PM CDT reply actions
F*cking QB recruiting, how does it work?
by gilberto verde on Oct 27, 2011 3:57 PM CDT reply actions
Gill did well to sign a 5 year/$10M all guaranteed deal while Lew Perkins of the ticket/jet/exercise equipment scandals did well to leave it for someone else to clean up. Everybody wins.
by Phenomenal Smith on Oct 27, 2011 4:01 PM CDT reply actions
Team Dirty Leg -
A lot of football conventions are still based on conventional wisdom, mythology, and anecdote instead of real data or actual study. The fumble stat that Phenom cites is incredibly useful information in evaluating a coach with a breakout season like Gill. The number of hiring ADs who are aware of that stat, or that fumble recoveries are a random walk, or that winning multiple overtime games suggests some favorable coin flips more than intrinsic late game clutchosity is probably somewhere around 0.
The NFL is evolving past some of this, but college football – which, interestingly, is often the most forward-thinking place in terms of in-game tactics and strategy – is in the Dark Ages with respect to understanding global cause and effect.
by Scipio Tex on Oct 27, 2011 4:06 PM CDT reply actions
I see. I guess the reason for this is that it is hard and extra work, something you are more likely to find in a more profit driven and innovation rewarding environment.
by Team Dirty Leg on Oct 27, 2011 4:21 PM CDT reply actions
Chuck Long is doing a good job with the offense. It’s a good, solid, college offense and is a legitimate 30 points a game type unit. The problem is that KU needs an offense that scores on every possession to hang in the game. The first couple of times they go 3 and out, or worse, turn it over, that’s a couple of TDs down. Out goes the running game, at which they are decent to good, and in comes the passing game, at which they are decent to meh. Things get away quickly. UT 60-28.
by memories on Oct 27, 2011 4:23 PM CDT reply actions
I know this is unrelated but J. Gray has 7 TD’s with just over 200 yards rushing. 49-28 Aledo over Birdville with 4:30 left to play in the 3rd.
by ValleyLonghorn on Oct 27, 2011 9:06 PM CDT reply actions
Will there really be a point at which our LBs do not take false steps? Will we know anything after this game, or is it just a Florida Atlantic-let the seniors smile moment? Does Texas cover without a defensive score?
by Juice on Oct 27, 2011 11:24 PM CDT reply actions
Sadly, scoring 30 points a game doesn’t cut it in college football anymore. Our porous defense is surrendering 50.4 ppg and about 550 ypg. We should not have to score 51 points to win, or even stay close each week. But that’s the current reality. The running backs show promise, though.
by RadioSilence on Oct 28, 2011 12:53 PM CDT reply actions
KU’s two starting OT’s could start for TEXAS? That almost defies comprehension.
REALLY!
by OldBullhorn on Oct 28, 2011 9:39 PM CDT reply actions
“He’s undersized with decent mobility and throws an accurate ball. Hello, Pretty Good College Football Spread QB! Apparently, though you exist in abundance, you’re impossible for Texas to locate on the recruiting trail to staff its depth chart.”
Lol.
by tjarks on Oct 29, 2011 10:48 AM CDT reply actions

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