BCS Analysis – Undefeateds Update

The undefeated probability for Okie Lite looks a little low, given the win projections.

Ehh, looks like sooner magic will work again. I don’t see Stanford beating Oregon.

And will the voter love for Bob Stoops combined with the computer love for the Big 12 actually drop the LSU/Bama loser behind the Sooners? It’s quite possible.

I believe the voter love for OU took a hit last night with Iowa State’s destruction of Tech at Lubbock. A couple more losses by Tech and their win over the Sooners looks really ugly if compared with other one-loss teams.

Okie State (slightly) favored over OU? I’ll believe it when it happens …

Stanford 67% favored over Oregon? I don’t think much has changed since last year, when Oregon blew them out.

If both Stanford and OSU lose then the most interesting quandary will be whether Boise State jumps ahead of the LSU/Bama loser to make it to the title game, assuming Bama/LSU is a close, well played game. Few people outside the SEC would want to see a rematch in the title game even if those were clearly the top two teams.

You ought to start doing probabilities that GA will be the east champion. South Carolina has to play at Arky and Florida while Georgia gets Auburn.

Also, OU’s loss to Tech looks really bad now. I don’t see how OU goes to the NC game. A one loss Oregon team has a better chance especially if Bama beats LSU. And count me as a doubter that OSU will run the table. The same goes for Stanford. They will drop one of their games to Oregon or ND.

Those percentages can’t be right. Ole Miss would only beat LSU at home 4 times out of every 1,000 meetings? Alabama has a 97.9% chance of beating its in-state rival on the road? Regardless of exactly how good LSU/Alabama might be this year, its college football in November and weird stuff happens.

I’m betting the house on George Southern.

If OU beats OSU, there’s a rematch of this weekend’s game between the Bayou Bengals and Bama unless Stanford beats Oregon, which is about 50-50.

If OSU wins out they are in no matter what Stanford does.

Alabama and LSU are the best two teams in the nation. No one else is close, no matter what the final W/L shows.

A one-loss Oregon team does not have a better chance than OU. Have y’all not seen today’s BCS rankings??? OU jumped Oregon. OU will finish with beating #2 undefeated OSU. The computers are going to like that more than Oregon beating Stanford.

Also, voters won’t want to see Oregon v SEC again this season. ESPECIALLY Oregon v LSU.

Finally, anyone that thinks undefeated Boise fends off a one-loss BCS team needs to come back from LaLa Land…

Oregon lost to LSU. That is their Achilles hee.

*Heel.

Finally part Deux, Bama and LSU will never, EVER, replay each other in the national championship game. EVER.

Skee-diddlee-o-doe

We’ll see what the voters do. The voters will not want to see a rematch of LSU/Oregon and I never stated as such. OU lost to a 30 point underdog at home who turned around the next week and was trounced by 30 plus at home to a truly horrific team. Oregon still gets Washington, USC, and Stanford plus a pac 10 game. Perhaps you should do a little more studying next time. There is no shame in Oregon’s loss to LSU. Voters also don’t like to pitt teams in rematches and they typically don’t like to see teams play for a NC that didn’t win its own conference. That’s why there were BCS changes after Nebraska played for a title in 2001. It sure will be fun to see what happens with all these one loss teams as I don’t think Stan or Okie State runs the table. Another extreme outside scenario would be that Georgia upsets the LSU/Bama winner in the SEC championship game. Talk about chaos.

Another whacky scenario involves LSU beating Bama then losing to Arky to close out the season. All of a sudden we have a Bama, Arky, LSU scenario similar to OU, TX, and Tech of 2008.

I understand Oregon still has quality teams to beat. BUT, PAC lags behind the Big 12 in the computers by a considerable margin. Considering the Pokes go into Bedlam undefeated and get beat, there’s no way in hell Oregon jumps OU. The g00ners will cap their season off by beating the #2 team in the country.

What research is there to do? There’s nothing you presented that debunks my argument.

If Stanford and OSU lose, then OU is a shoe in.

Stanford will lose to either Oregon or Notre Dame.

Okie St will lost to either K State or OU.

Boise will not lose, and they beat the team that will probably win the SEC East. Boise will play the LSU/Bama winner UNLESS Bama beats LSU in Tuscaloosa by 1 or 2 pts and voters want to give LSU the same chance in New Orleans in the BCS cship. Rarely happens, but I do remember Danny Wuerffel leading Florida over Fla St to Spurrier’s MNC exactly one game after Fla St whipped Florida all over the field.

Brad Edwards was talking about the Oregon scenario earlier this week.

Also, realize that if chaos ensues that voters will take into account a full season of work and will compare each one loss team. OU’s loss to Tech looks really really bad. Voters make up 2/3 of the BCS ratings. A one loss Oregon will look much better than a one loss OU.

However, if you’re a bettor you have to hitch your wagon to OU. They will try to blow everyone out that they play.

Don’t get me wrong, I am without a doubt rooting for mass chaos. I am tired of OU getting the benefit of the doubt. Especially after ’08.

I would love to see Boise in the NC game. They are the only horse in the race that I can honestly say I wouldn’t mind seeing w/ a championship.

However, I do not see a scenario where they’re in the big dance unless they’re being considered against a 2-loss BCS team.

Look at the projected SOS # above for Bama and LSU and tell me Oregon is going to jump either of them. LSU mauled them. OU might, but I don’t see their projected SOS so I coudn’t say. The computers will override whatever the voters want if there is only one unbeaten other than Boise, who has no chance based on their SOS, which is only going to get worse. Again, Alabama and LSU are the two best teams in the country. No one else is even close but an unbeaten OSU or Stanford would get in with OSU having the better BCS rating if it goes down that way. Huck’s percentanges favor two unbeaten AQ’s by quite a large margin.

Actually I think there is a high probability that LSU will play Bama in the MNC if the choice is between an unbeaten Boise and a one loss Bama or LSU. There is no question SEC SEC would win out in that scenario, the talking heads are already positioning for it.

Granted it would probably take one loss by Stanford and OSU, and two losses to OU, but I can see that happening.

You are forgetting the bump Boise will get IF they beat TCU in two weeks.

Bad joke on my part which is a redundant comment according to our youngest Norma Jean. I was pulling for USC on Saturday just to see what would happen if and when Boise would win out, OU wins out, and you are left with the winner of the LSU-Bama, Boise, and no other undefeateds.

If UGA ends up in the SEC title game how much does it help Boise’s situation. Remember I am a salesman making me a concept guy who would always turn to the actuaries to see if we could actually do what I just sold.

Exactly, roach. No matter if they are better, an undefeated Stanford or OSU will have the SOS to get there, but without that, it’ll be a rematch provided, of course, neither of them loses again.

Massey schedule ratings updated. Oklahoma is 5 current, 2 full for those curious.

This is just a nit, but I don’t think you can add the individual probabilities of Alabama going undefeated and LSU going undefeated and get .539 + .330 = .869 as the probability of an undefeated SEC champion. It’s been awhile, but if I remember my statistics and probability theory correctly, that only works if the two events are independent of each other. Since LSU and Alabama play each other, the events are not independent. I’m not sure what the true probability is, but it’s a more complicated calculation, which will become much simpler after they play next week.

Thanks, Huck. The full at 2 would make it damned interesting if OU runs the table and Stanford loses to Oregon which is quite possible.

Damn, we almost made it without that same concern popping back up. Nothing personal, OrlandoHorn, I think you’re the fifth person to question that in three weeks.

Actually, you can add them up because they are mutually exclusive events (definitely not independent). If they were independent events, such as the odds that at least one of Oklahoma State and Stanford go undefeated, the calculation is more complicated.

I’ve posted some different analogies on this in previous weeks, but let’s go back to the roll of the single die. The probability that at least one of LSU/Alabama ends up undefeated is the same as rolling a 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 on a single roll. LSU is the 1 and 2 and Alabama is the 3, 4, and 5. They can’t both happen, so they are mutually exclusive.

On the other hand, at least one of Oklahoma State and Stanford going undefeated is akin to two separate and independent rolls of the die. If on the first roll you get a 1 or a 2, then Oklahoma State goes undefeated. If on the second roll you get a 1, 2, or 3 then Stanford goes undefeated. The probability that at least one goes undefeated is then the probability that both go undefeated + the probability that OkSU does but Stanford doesn’t + the probability that Stanford does but OkSU doesn’t. It can also be calculated as the 1 – the probability that neither ends up undefeated. In fact, those last two formulas in sentence form can be applied to each situation. Let’s start with OkSU and Stanford using their real probabilities.

Probability both go undefeated = 0.383*0.475
Probability OkSU but not Stanford = 0.383*(1-0.475)
Probability Stanford but not OkSU = 0.475*(1-0.383)

Final answer = 0.383*0.475 + 0.383*(1-0.475) + 0.475*(1-0.383) = 0.676

Obviously numbers are approximate but I’m using the equal sign anyway.

Now, for LSU and Alabama

Probability both go undefeated = 0 —> Logical impossibility because they play each other
Probability LSU but not Bama = 0.330*(1-0) —> Probability that Bama goes undefeated if LSU does is zero
Probability Bama but not LSU = 0.539*(1-0) —> Same logical argument

Final answer = 0 + 0.330*(1-0) + 0.539*(1-0) = 0.330 + 0.539 = 0.869.

That’s why you can simply add them.

For real chaos, we need either five unbeatens or just two (Boise and Houston) followed by once-beaten OU being edged by once-beaten LSU on a missed PAT, while Boise and Houston remain unbeaten following BCS bowl wins.

Blessed Eris, bring one of these states of affairs about, and my next Toad-elevating Moment is dedicated to You.

No way Stanford loses to ND. The Oregon track meet—I mean, game—is another matter entirely…

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