Big 12 Games Preview - 11/5/11

I’d like to see you add a small recap with last week’s results. Just a thought.

Think the obvious game of interest this weekend would be Lsu and Bama.

Like this post every week, so thanks. Agree with AC, but would like to see how picks have done since season began. Track record has some validity in confidence equation.

Interesting to see the B12 models converging after a lot of dichotomy earlier in the year. Yay for more data points!

Bama-LSU isn’t an “other game of interest”?

Putting the Model aside, I suspect that there is a better than average chance of a KSU upset next week. KSU is basically us, with a better running game.

Randy Edsell thinks your models are swell.

Rechecked my stats. Never mind.

Still, Randy Edsell really wants to know what your models are doing later this week.

Thanks for the work, Good Will Hucking.

I look for OU to go full Stoops and torch the shit out of A&M, trying to run the score up in the 4th quarter since they no longer control where they land with the BCS.

Who are LSU and Alabama?

The other games of interest section is only for games where the models have the biggest disagreement with the lines. I will rename it next week due to the continued confusion because of the crappy name. For those curious, the models say 27-24 and 27-25 Bama for that game (power and stat, respectively).

How does Sagarin have Texas rated so highly? I get that we lost to the number 3 and 4 teams, but our wins are over teams ranked 91, 82, 56, 55, and 45. Was it just because of the defensive effort against Kansas?

So how accurately has the model picked winners and how close to the final scores has it been?

How does Sagarin have Texas rated so highly? I get that we lost to the number 3 and 4 teams, but our wins are over teams ranked 91, 82, 56, 55, and 45. Was it just because of the defensive effort against Kansas?

If I remember correctly UT was 24th last week (Mizzou was 26th). This week UT is 9th and Mizzou 11th. UT has the 14th toughest SOS – Mizzou’s is 1st. Sagarin just loves the Big 12 – see:

3 OSU
4 OU
8 A&M
9 UT
11 Mizzou
18 KSU
25 Baylor
39 TT
45 ISU
92 KU

I hope your models are closer to the final result than your 34 – 28 prediction. I don’t know if my heart can take us being up by 6 late in the 4th quarter against Tech, even if the pirate has gone to Key West.

Everyone knows that there isn’t a program written or a system created that can project any game involving the Mad Hatter.

texasengr -

It does fairly well, I guess. Obviously it doesn’t hit every score on the nose or else I wouldn’t be publishing it here. Ha.

The intent of the model is to put a final result on the predicted average score of many meetings between the two teams. Obviously games very rarely play out exactly as they should on paper, so it hits some almost exactly and misses others wildly. I’m a numbers guy but I enjoy watching the games as much as anyone else.

Overall the model has had a ridiculously good year (2008), a bad year (2010), a good year (2009), and we’re still watching 2011 unfold. I’m going to try to revisit everything in the future because I now have stats going back to 2000 to determine the best model I can. This weekly preview is more for getting the college football week started with a quick glance at the conference slate.

Any win by Texas by any margin against any opponent on our remaining schedule should be treated with joy and exuberance. That’s not because I believe a win is a win. It’s because this team is far too flawed for applying my preferred traditional standards.
 
Where has A&M showed the capacity for being blown out? OU has a long history of doing just that to people at their place, but I’m not comfortable laying 14.5.
 
Missouri-Baylor is a coin flip and I favor Mizzou slightly. Henry Josey will average 10 yards per carry. If our DL continues their play from last Saturday, I’m feeling better about our matchup in Waco.
 
OSU’s defense will continue to be sneaky good. All they have to do is rob KSU of a couple of possessions early and the game can get out of hand. On the other hand, KSU has to play pretty much perfect football to win. KSU will put up some points, in any event.
 
OSU’s ability to kill you with big plays in the running game when you double up on their WRs is driving their engine right now. Randle is at 6.2 per carry; Smith is at 7.5. They actually have a possession passing game paired with big play running game. A pretty unique creature.

Where has A&M showed the capacity for being blown out?

In the second half? Ha.

I agree with you but I have a bad feeling about that game for them. I think the Sooners may come out primed for one of their early explosions and I noticed a lot of tendencies in the A&M pass routes in the games I’ve watched. Stoops eats tendencies up, as we know all too well. If they don’t stay committed to the ground game I think they could get in a lot of trouble.

Scip-

I guess that was the point of my erroneous comment about KSU’s defense: Under the right circumstances, KSU’sability to grind clock could be problematic for OSU, which wants the other team to try to get out and run with the Cowboys. But the Wildcats will need a lot of things to fall into place, including Weeden getting cocky and forcing the ball and somehow finding a way to hold the middle of the defense against big run plays, plus running the clock down to the 1 on every play from the first snap.

I was watching College Football Live before the season and they asked Matt Millen who he thought the best coaches in CFB were. The first name out of his mouth was Kirk Ferentz.

Will one of our Aggies explain why Jeff Fuller has been such a disappointment? I understand he was hurt for a while, but that doesn’t explain his refusal to fight for the ball.

Thanks, Scip, I’ve noticed that, too. I wonder if he’s got the redass because Tanneyhill is doing a McCoy/Shipley type thing with Swope. He seems unhappy in a Roy Williams kind of way.

Fuller drew a lot of ire Saturday in the TexAgs meltdown.

He looked like he was going through the motions on Saturday. Not just in failing to use that big frame to shield off the smaller corner back, but he had some simple drops.

Would not bother me a bit if Oklahoma had a breakdown like tech this weekend. You have to think A&M looked closely at the Defense Scheme Tech used against Oklahoma. Coach aggy needs to give up his OC job.

The Texas A&M psyche will be important to watch. They are a few bad things away from having the wheels come completely off the sheep wagon and if OU gets an early turnover or gets up 14-0 I predict very bad things for A&M. Like 59-17 kind of bad.

If I am A&M I come out and go Texas game plan on OU and run the ball 9 out of every 10 plays in the first half.

“Where has A&M showed the capacity for being blown out?”

In Norman. Duh.

Great point Newy. The Ags were convinced they were going out of the Big XII in style with a conference title. Now those dreams gone it will be interesting to see how things hold together. Remember that a year ago at this time the Ags were calling for Sherms head.

Scip, the devolution of Jeff Fuller has been a mystery to all of us. Not running good routes, Db’s sitting on the come back routes as he doesn’t sell anything else. Last week was particularly bad vs. MIzzou with multiple drops. He’s in some sort of senior funk usually reserved for Aggie Qb’s. I think we need to learn to play 2 1st halves per game, then we would be undefeated. I think we can keep it close in Norman if we can keep our ground game viable, but early scores and or turnovers will end up with the usual result.

Where has A&M showed the capacity for being blown out? OU has a long history of doing just that to people at their place, but I’m not comfortable laying 14.5.

Average score of OU-A&M in Norman during Stoops’ tenure … 50-12.

That includes games of 51-6, 65-10 and the delicious 77-0 where backup Paul Thompson was taking a knee on first and goal in the third quarter.

Stoops has never scored less than 31 at home versus A&M.

I could have posted similar numbers about what Stoops has done to Tech in Norman, too, though. #sadface

The Ag’s are fighting multiple battles at this moment: 1) their traditional football season battle when optimism turns to disappointment; 2) the battle among themselves about the wisdom of their move to the SEC; 3) the battle to justify the move to the SEC to outsiders; 4) the fire-the-coach battle; 5) the withhold donations battle, and 6) the ‘smack down a player’ battle on Twitter.

I would say they are at DEF-CON 5 and counting. Scary.

Fuller has made himself a lot of money by coming back.

I was rooting last week for an 8 point Stanford win after a shoot-out with enough officiating issues for Lane to make an ass of himself afterwards. Given that success, I’ve been trying to figure out what outcome I most desire this week. A stomping of Tech? Another 4th quarter collapse for AM? A triple reverse on 4th and inches with the center picking up Jefferson’s fumble and rumbling 85 yards for the winning TD as time expires?

Then it hit me. None of the above. Lottery ticket.