Big 12 Games Preview - 11/12/11

Time for the weekly look at the upcoming Big 12 games based on ratings and adjusted stats to date. Keep in mind that personnel matchups, coaching decisions, injuries, etc. will not play into the numerical predictions and are all important information that will still need to be considered. One housekeeping note is that based on what I did for the high school ratings, I have updated the team pages to show every team's full schedule including matchup analyzer links where applicable as you can see on the Texas page for example. Winning percentage, both raw and unadjusted, will continue to display results against other FBS teams only but the team page and ratings tables will show a team's overall record, including games against FCS teams. The same theory applies to point calculations and the PF (Points For) and PA (Points Allowed) columns in the tables.

Some of you may be familiar with my matchup analyzer, which predicts a final score based on the power ratings of each team as well as specific stats for the game. What it doesn't yet have, but may be added soon, is a second final score prediction based on the adjusted stats it shows. As discussed in the Adjusted Stats Year in Review, regression analysis can be used to estimate points scored against rushing, passing, and turnovers. I have chosen to use 2011 stats to update that regression weekly based on the season so far. For 2011 through the games of 11/5/11 that regression is currently 3.28*TPPA + 2.65*TRPC - 235.73*TVPP, which is used for the below analyses.

Also note that my power rating predicted scores below will differ from the analyzer because I'm using a standard 3 point homefield advantage while the analyzer uses the season results to date. Additionally, the official picks published later in the week may differ from the Other Games of Interest section because standard deviations aren't considered here.

Oklahoma St. (-17) @ Texas Tech - 11:00 ABC
Power Rating Predicted Score - Oklahoma St. 57, Texas Tech 32
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Oklahoma St. 44, Texas Tech 23
Matchup Analyzer Link

It did not take long for Tuberville to ruin the good graces he found himself in only two weeks ago after the shocking win over Oklahoma. If they weren't entirely gone after getting crushed at home by Iowa State, he took care of that last Saturday as the Red Raiders got run right over by Texas. Things don't figure to get any better this week as the undefeated #3 Cowboys come to Lubbock. You would think that Gundy would have their attention heading into this one after the scare that a highly ranked yet large underdog Kansas State team put in them last time out. As I'm getting lazy, I will straddle the two models and call it 51-28 in favor of Oklahoma State.

Texas (-1) @ Missouri 11:00 FX
Power Rating Predicted Score - Missouri 25 (24.9), Texas 25 (24.8)
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Missouri 30, Texas 26
Matchup Analyzer Link

The models call for a narrow Texas defeat, but something they don't take into account is that the Longhorns have been trending upward in every meaningful statistic the past few weeks. The Tigers are a very consistent team across the board, ranking in or near the top 40 of most major categories, and they have taken care of the ball very well considering their competition to date. Despite a 3-5 record against FBS teams, Missouri is #17 in the standard power rating. Probably the SEC rubbing off on them already. I'm a Texas fan so I figure the improvement to continue as we see a 34-24 Texas win and deafening chants of Big12!Big12!Big12! from our hearty road fans.

Baylor (-20) @ Kansas 1:00 No TV
Power Rating Predicted Score - Baylor 52, Kansas 34
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Baylor 48, Kansas 34
Matchup Analyzer Link

Baylor won a good game against Missouri last week while the Jayhawks dropped a close one to Iowa State. So each team is coming off at least a moral victory, but the Kansas offense has been subpar to be kind the past two games. And on defense while they were able to keep a weak Cyclone unit in check, Baylor's offense will finally be facing a team they out-athlete in most matchups. Baylor 56-21.

Texas A&M (-4.5) @ Kansas St. 2:30 ABC
Power Rating Predicted Score - Texas A&M 32 (32.4), Kansas St. 32 (32.1)
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Kansas St. 29 (29.4), Texas A&M 29 (28.6)
Matchup Analyzer Link

The Aggies limp into Manhattan after two consecutive losses and without Christine Michael, who is out for the year with a knee injury. A&M continues to rate well in nearly every statistic and the power rating, but they can't get a stop when they absolutely need it against good teams this year. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are extremely good at the one thing the Aggies are bad at - turnovers. With a game this tight and an injury to one of the two Aggie backs, an edge like that is enough for me. Kansas State wins this one outright 30-27.

THE FOUR GAMES WHERE THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE CONSENSUS SPREAD BY THE LARGEST NUMBER OF POINTS

I renamed this section with a more accurate title. Should help.

North Texas (+8) @ Troy
Power Rating Predicted Score - North Texas 23, Troy 21
Stat Regression Predicted Score - North Texas 26, Troy 23
Matchup Analyzer Link

That's a big disagreement this late in the year. I'm going to assume there's an injury or coaching change or something I don't know about. Or the fact that it's North Texas and Scott Bakula ain't walking through that door.

Tennessee (+14) @ Arkansas
Power Rating Predicted Score - Arkansas 29, Tennessee 23
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Arkansas 35, Tennessee 30
Matchup Analyzer Link

The Razorbacks have some good games on their schedule, but they beat Troy by 10, Ole Miss by 5, and Vandy by 3. Betting on them to cover two touchdowns against an adequate opponent with a solid defense seems risky.

Virginia Tech (-1) @ Georgia Tech
Power Rating Predicted Score - Georgia Tech 23, Virginia Tech 17
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Georgia Tech 38, Virginia Tech 27
Matchup Analyzer Link

Every time the Yellowjackets pop up on here it reminds me I need to add some sort of pace component to the stat regression model. Then I forget to do it so it totally screws with the totals number. Anyway, the computer continues to like the Fighting Paul Johnsons. And it's not a Beamer Ball fan. Those two things have to win eventually. Bet it all on the Rambling Wreck. But not because I said so because I don't want any blame later.

Navy (+8.5) @ SMU
Power Rating Predicted Score - SMU 33, Navy 30
Stat Regression Predicted Score - SMU 37 (36.8), Navy 37 (36.6)
Matchup Analyzer Link

I don't like this play that much because the Mustangs stop the run very well this year. But I just report the output, so here it is.

That's it for this week.

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