2011-12 Texas Basketball State of the Union

by jc25 on Nov 13, 2011 9:52 PM CST in Texas Longhorns and Other Basketball

Now that our football team is finally great good at least bowl-eligible again, you, intrepid Texas fan, may have forgotten that we also play something called bas-ket-bawwwwwl on the 40 Acres. For those of you who remain blindingly optimistic even in the face of certain death, the 2011-12 Texas basketball team is just like its football counterpart: we're not rebuilding, we're RELOADING! For the rest of you pragmatist Barkers: well, we're probably rebuilding.

I talked at length about Rick Barnes' new "recruiting philosophy" last week. We appear well positioned to compete for championships starting next year, but I won't lie to you: this year will be a challenge. Right now, the Horns look like a bubble team, fifth or sixth best in a down year for the Big 12. That said, we should be a terribly fun team to watch, especially if Barnes embraces the run 'n gun style that suits our personnel so perfectly.

GUARDS

In Cory Joseph's draft declaration statement, he espoused: "[W]hen Kabongo follows in my footsteps, there will no longer be any of the blood of the sacamores AAU Grassroots, for my boy is the last of the Mohicans Canadians." Basically, if you're a fan of Terrance & Phillip, Alanis Morrissette, or the Ro the Rev pipeline, don't hold your breath for new hits. Myck Kabongo looks like Texas' last Canadian for the foreseeable future, now that assistant Rodney Terry has departed for a better pay grade. But if Kabongo is the last one, he's a heckuva curtain call. He'll be one of--if not the--best freshman point guards in the country. He's also a very real possibility for one-and-done, so Barnes desperately needs to work some Peter Gabriel "In Your Eyes" type magic to convince the new Oingo Boingo to stay. Kabongo is lightning quick, a fearless penetrator, and deft distributor. He's the Horns' best passing point guard since T.J. Ford, for serious. He'll also turn the ball over quite a few times trying to force plays, and needs to work on keeping defenses honest by hitting a handful from long range.

Junior J'Covan Brown steps up from his sixth man role last year to start at the 2 as Texas' combo guard. He gets a bum rap from a myriad of reasons--academic ineligibility, attitude problems, and general association with the last two seasons of crushing disappointment. He also happens to be Texas' best shooter with a wickedly good understanding of how to create offensively. For more, check out Reggieball's fantastic piece discussing Brown's offensive prowess on BON. This will be Brown's first year playing next to an offensively competent point guard, and I expect a breakout season akin to LaceDarius Dunn, Jacob Pullen, or Ashton Gibbs' junior campaigns. If he's not the Horns' leading scorer this year, it'll be a shock.

Brown will take over ball-handling duties when Kabongo gets a blow, and the third-string point is freshman Sterling Gibbs, younger brother of aforementioned Ashton. Sterling was a lightly regarded 3* prospect; then again, so was Ashton. He's a stash-and-develop guy for Barnes. But given Texas' recent track record with non-star player development, I wonder just how well Texas will "develop" Gibbs the younger. Prove me wrong, Rick. Also, since we don't have any other upperclassmen warm bodies, the stash part won't really come to fruition, either. He'll get some run, whether he's ready or not.

Junior walk-ons Andrew Dick and Dean Melchionni return for another year of playing Rosencrantz & Guildenstern in RTF 101, lending an extra hand during tip drills and raising the team GPA. I mention them only because we're carrying nine scholarship players and can't afford playing time lost to injury, suspension, or general ineffectiveness. If Dick and Melchionni are getting Ian Mooney-like PT, something is rotten in the state of Texas (and, no, I'm not talking about Willie Lyles).

WINGS

Texas will roll with a three-guard lineup because our two forwards from last year, Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson, decided to get paid (in fictitious Wonderworld Dollars, printed by Billy Hunter, the NBA's Uncle Dave). Enter two more freshmen, Julien Lewis and Sheldon McClellan, both Houston-area products. Lewis is considered a glue guy that plays bigger than his 6'3" frame indicates. He's an effective mid- and long-range scorer, rebounds well for his size, and plays heady on-ball defense. If he has a first year like freshman Justin Mason, Texas will be thrilled. Then hopefully, Barnes doesn't nerf him the same way he did to Mason's stunted development. If I were to predict which one of these freshmen end up making Seth Davis' Glue Guy team, I'd put my futures bet on Lewis.

McClellan is the bigger wing at 6'5", and his recruiting bio reads a lot like Lewis'. Good all-around player, strong mid-range shooter and slasher, capable three-point shooter. Barnes will basically just roll with whichever hand is hotter until he figures out which player gives the Horns a better chance to win as a starter. Lewis got the call out of the gate because he's the stronger long-range shooter and extends the offense, but McClellan's size may become increasingly important as the teams get bigger, stronger, faster on the schedule.

BIGS

Might as well introduce two more freshmen, Jonathan Holmes and Jaylen Bond. Bond likes his defenders shaken, stirred, and then boxed the F out. His best asset is his rebounding motor. Despite being just a 3* recruit, Bond has gotten the most positive publicity as the season drew nearer. He initially signed a LOI with Pittsburgh, but was granted his release to come to Texas. Given Jamie Dixon's history with effectively utilizing undersized big men, I consider that a plus. Barnes has a solid track record himself, and the expectation spectrum for both Bond and Holmes should range from Gary Johnson to P.J. Tucker to Damion James.

Of the two, Holmes is bigger and more highly regarded coming out of high school, so I found it strange that he wasn't getting talked up nearly as much as Bond. He's quite comfortable comfortable playing on the perimeter, and when he first committed, there were pipe dreams of him as a tall 3 spacing the floor next to Thompson. Ideally, he can come in and provide a Johnson-sized impact to the frontcourt. You may now insert your best Val Kilmer joke here.

Texas' two big returnees are Alexis Wangmene and Clint Chapman, and there's not much more bitching and moaning about these two than has already been written. Wangmene has a solid core and a fiery attitude, but is two inches too short for his style of play. He hasn't yet figured out how to compensate for that height differential, and I doubt he puts it together this season. He provides almost nothing on the offensive end aside from pounding the glass. As a defender, he'll make lesser guys uncomfortable but doesn't have the height to defend talented taller 4's, let alone 5's. If I were Barnes, I'd have given him a tape of Chuck Hayes as a Houston Rocket and made him watch it on a LOST Room 23-type loop.

Chapman is another puzzling Barnes recruiting case in which the skills that Clint came in with as a freshman have seemingly regressed or disappeared entirely by his senior year. He redshirted last year in the hopes that another season of development would turn him into at least a serviceable college player. He has some offensive post skills, but a best case year looks like Matt Hill's: just know where to be on the floor and don't mess up too badly. He's also the only guy on the team taller than 6'7", but couldn't get the starting gig at center. That's telling.

OUTLOOK

It's a crying shame that Texas didn't get one or two returnees back from last year, because this year's Big 12 is wide open. The conference as a whole looks ripe for a down year. Kansas draws the favorite tag by default, with only Thomas Robinson looking like an NBA player on their roster. Baylor, with Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller, is the most talented, but the Bears limited by the lack of a point guard and Scott Drew as a head coach. Kansas State could be feisty but doesn't have Jacob Pullen anymore, and Texas A&M still has Khris Middleton but little else. Oklahoma State is in the same boat as Texas, with one star freshman (LeBryan Nash), a hope, and a prayer.

The downside is that with just 10 teams, conference play is bumped up from 16 to 18 games with a true round robin. Nebraska and Colorado, traditionally two of the Big 12's weaker basketball programs, drop off the schedule. Texas now plays home-and-homes with the old Big 12 north schools, none of them pushovers.

The non-conference schedule isn't terribly difficult, with a game at Chapel Hill against North Carolina looking like the only surefire loss. The Horns also play at UCLA and at home against Temple. Their preseason tournament this year is the Legends Classic, with a final game against either a rebuilding North Carolina State or a Vanderbilt team without its star center, Festus Ezeli (injured knee).

The goal for Texas should be a 20 win season and an NCAA Tournament berth. I'm predicting losses to North Carolina and UCLA, as well as a couple more head scratchers. That would require 11 conference wins to make it to 20-11. At the very least, Texas is off to a nice start--they creamed Boston University today for their first win of the year.

Given the personnel, Barnes should embrace his talent instead of lamenting on the losses. That means embracing his inner Simple Jack and going full retard with an uptempo style of play. Barnes finally has a point guard that can lead, score, distribute, and push the ball. Further, his combo guard won't be too shabby at that either, giving Texas two above-average options in the backcourt. The 3 and 4 spots will be manned by inexperienced, perimeter-oriented players that would thrive in a "do, not think" offense as well. And if that's not reason enough, the height deficiency should be the last straw pushing Barnes towards a brave new offensive world.

On defense, on-ball, man-to-man pressure defense is Barnes' calling card, and I don't expect the philosophy to change here. Our height disadvantage will make rebounding and defending the paint a challenge, so as much as the Horns can force the opposition guards out of their comfort zones, the better. And if Chapman and Wangmene can focus their efforts on becoming elite rebounders, that would be a really welcome development.

Texas is young, but talented. Small, but fiery. And most importantly, full of potential. This will be one of the most challenging and demanding seasons yet, but stick with these guys. At the very least, they'll be fun to watch.

GENERAL CBB

If you were a fan of my general college basketball musings last year on March to March, check out some of the season preview posts I've been doing for A Sea of Blue (SBNation's Kentucky Wildcats blog). They're not half-bad, if I say so myself.

Pre-Season Elite 8 | Alternative All-Americans | All-Sleeper Final Four | Fabulous Freshmen to Watch | My Guys

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Comments

Nice work jc.

As hard as I try, I can’t get to 11 non-con wins. Hoping for 10-8 in the league, but it’ll be rocky getting there.

by Bob in Houston on Nov 13, 2011 10:09 PM CST reply actions

Nice post, JC.

This will be a fun group to watch. I don’t think we’ll see the full tilt up-tempo that some might expect after glancing at our roster — Barnes doesn’t have it in him.

If we can steal enough rebounds and JCB and Kabongo have the years they are both capable of, then we’ll be back in the tourney.

by awiggo from BON on Nov 13, 2011 10:11 PM CST reply actions

Watched the game against BU from the floor tonight.

My only worthwhile impression is that Jaylen Bond has the oddest head-size-to-torso ratio since the Goombas from the Super Mario Bros. movie.

by Garry Crowbar on Nov 13, 2011 10:13 PM CST reply actions

Ezeli will be out b/c of a suspension, not knee, if we hook up with Vandy in New Jersey.

by awiggo from BON on Nov 13, 2011 10:14 PM CST reply actions

was happy with the result tonight. clearly, can’t judge too much, given the competition. and there were certainly things that we didn’t do well.

that said, there were a lot of things to like tonight. Kabongo is long and fast. I think we’ll be able to lean on him a lot more than we did tonight. JB was nails. Lewis was as advertised — ditto on McClellan. Holmes was very fluid and looked skilled on the offensive end.

even when we weren’t executing on offense, it wasn’t disasterous like most Barnes teams. I know…the competition. however, it just seems that the offense comes intuitively to several of these guys.

I’m looking forward to seeing the peaks and valleys this year.

by txsa on Nov 13, 2011 10:48 PM CST reply actions

Hard to get excited for next season when both Kabongo and JCB will be gone. Hopefully we can make something out of this year.

by Joe Internet Fan on Nov 13, 2011 11:20 PM CST reply actions

Bob: We’ll do it by sweeping the Jayhawks. #Believe

awiggo: Thanks. I still Texas fans are sleeping on JCB. He’s more highly regarded nationally than he is in Austin. Given our irrational exuberance about our football team every year, I find that odd. You’d think he was Blake Gideon or something. You’re right on Ezeli: the suspension does trump the knee injury, although he is banged up. I’d rather have seen us play him to see how we match up against an All-Conference big.

Garry: As long as he’s using that head to box out, I’ll be happy.

txsa: it just seems that the offense comes intuitively to several of these guys. I like the sound of that.

Joe: Not a predestination that Kabongo and JCB will be gone. Brown is a junior; odds are better than not he comes back at this point. The Association just isn’t that enamored with undersized, athletically limited shooting guards. See: Dunn, Pullen, Gibbs for recent examples. Kabongo is a likely first round pick if he leaves, depending on how good of a freshman season he has, but could be a top 10 lottery pick if he stays. Think TJ Ford. There’s always a chance that the NBA mandates the new age limit, whereby he’s forced to stay.

by jc25 on Nov 14, 2011 8:04 AM CST reply actions

" is lightning quick, a fearless penetrator, and deft distributor."

Until I got to the third descriptor, I was thinking “that sounds exactly how my wife would describe me.” I’m nothing if not faithful.

As to the team, they’re going to be fun to watch for the fan with realistic or even pessimistic expectations much like this year’s football team. They can really only exceed what I expect.

by burntorangejuice on Nov 14, 2011 8:56 AM CST reply actions

Most impressive for me amongst the unknowns was Holmes. Pick and popped from J’Covan and played solid D in the interior. Didn’t realize he had such a nice stroke.

McClellan has some ups.

Seemed like most of the FR were content to just pass the ball on the perimeter, didn’t see anyone looking to attack (looking at you Kabongo) with penetration, except for J’Covan.

J’Covan has some new found explosiveness and with his Augustine’ish change of pace game is gonna put up some points….. until teams figure out how to get the ball out of hands. Was very impressed with his willingness to move the ball to his teammates while sitting at 28 points for most of the second half.

Wangmene and Chaps were Wangmene and Chaps. Nothing more, nothing less.

Ex players are in abundance: Ivey, Mihm, Atchley on the bench, Ford and TT amongst the crowd.
TT and his buddy had a good laugh when I had my seven year old do his Triston Thompson impression for them. Shoulders way back with chest out. Good sport that he his TT gave him a dose of the real thing.

Horrible “group”. I refuse to call it a crowd.

Wangmene and Chapman are known commodities

by lowdenswain on Nov 14, 2011 9:03 AM CST reply actions

jc: thanks for the deft analysis, complete with optimism as well as the details of the potential pitfalls.

After the game last night I thought that Chapmans redshirt years was good for him and that he can indeed be the “serviceable college player,” that you hope for as well.

The newcomers are athletic, and appear to be buying into the Barnes “defense will decide playing minutes,” mantra.

Kabongo is lightning quick, a fearless penetrator, and deft distributor. He’s the Horns’ best passing point guard since T.J. Ford, for serious.

For serious indeed. He did a great job of identifying the open man and getting him the ball efficiently.

I love JCB and he looks like he will embrace his upgraded status on the offense. He was comfortable on both ends of the court.

However — he will still do stuff that drives coaches nuts. His foul with Texas holding a 30-point lead late in the game was a brain dead move. The BU player has the lane and will score when J’Covan tries to pin his arms. It turns into a three point play, and if the game was still in doubt it is the kind of play refs will call as an intentional foul. Still he really helped get the freshmen into the flow of the game and will demand double teams most of the year, which will give some of our long range shooters open looks.

I refuse to try and make a prediction as to what the final record will be, but they sure should be fun to watch the entire season.

by srr50 on Nov 14, 2011 9:23 AM CST reply actions

nice write up jc….I need to get in gear, totally forgot about the game yesterday even with my tix sitting on the dresser. But I’m also still trying to figure out how we lost that zona game in the tourney last year….they had about a 3% of winning it the way they did….Rick might be cursed with some Canadian karma…

by ballrific on Nov 14, 2011 10:09 AM CST reply actions

lowdenswain,

Cory Joseph and Gary Johnson were also in attendance.

by Garry Crowbar on Nov 14, 2011 10:15 AM CST reply actions

It was fun watching the contrasts of BU’s zone and UT’s man. Texas did what you want to do against the zone: penetrate and shoot/make 3s. Chapman’s contribution was a nice surprise and I watched Holmes more and more as the games progressed. It was kind of funny listening to JB on the radio after the game, the voice of maturity and leadership. Who would of thunk.

by g'69 on Nov 14, 2011 10:18 AM CST reply actions

Is it just me or does Chapman look like he lost weight during the last two years since we last saw him?

by dick on Nov 14, 2011 10:43 AM CST reply actions

Good stuff.

The Big 12 does seem pretty wide open. Scott Drew’s problems with X’s and O’s only make his recruiting prowess more hilarious. A&M may not have any pro prospects besides Middleton, but they return a lot of solid upperclassmen role players. I’m more bullish on Kansas because I’ve always liked Tyshawn Taylor, but I can see why others aren’t.

To anyone worried about JCB going pro after this year … don’t be. He obviously might, but there’s not going to be anyone in the NBA encouraging him to do so. The last thing the NBA needs is a slow-footed 6’1 chucker with attitude problems. Look at the guys jc compared him too — LaceDarius Dunn, Jacob Pullen — they never even got a shot at the next level. Hell Ben Hansbrough didn’t.

by tjarks on Nov 14, 2011 10:57 AM CST reply actions

you wrote, “Chapman is another puzzling Barnes recruiting case in which the skills that Clint came in with as a freshman have seemingly regressed or disappeared entirely by his senior year.”

One thing Barnes can do, usually in a single season, is coach the talent out of player. it’s amazing the regression in players and teams over the course of a season

by alphahorn on Nov 14, 2011 11:26 AM CST reply actions

I thought Wangmene had a pretty decent turnaround he’s been working on. My main hope is that Chapman and Wangmene prove adept at getting up the floor with Kabongo and Brown and putting in 6-10 per game on transition layups that are afforded to them by virtue of their size.

Other than that, don’t turn it over, grab every rebound, and play help defense and maybe we end up with a pretty good team with offense coming from the guards.

by Ian Boyd on Nov 14, 2011 11:38 AM CST reply actions

I don’t know that Chapman is going to be the low post presence we need, but he seemed to be closer to the player we all want him to be last night than in years past.

also, on Holmes…you always hear about tweener 3/4 types shooting from outside. I had heard this on Holmes and was wondering whether he actually had the range. from the looks of his shot last night, he looks very comfortable shooting from outside.

for selfish reasons, I’d love for the NBA to institute a 2-year minimum.

by txsa on Nov 14, 2011 11:44 AM CST reply actions

alphahorn —

I think part of the problem w/how guys develop is how demanding Barnes is. It’s a great way to maximize NBA talent like Jordan Hamilton who would be confident if he shot 0-15 in a game, but guys like Chapman might need a lighter touch. Barnes doesn’t suffer fools lightly, and you can see almost see the confidence slipping out of Chapman over the last two years.

by tjarks on Nov 14, 2011 11:57 AM CST reply actions

jc, thanks for the writeup. I hope Trips is okay though?

by Bartoncreek on Nov 14, 2011 2:47 PM CST reply actions

Has anyone done a thorough thought piece on why our three early draftees from last season obviously weren’t briefed (not as well as studs on other teams, like Carolina) on the fact that the NBA season was a 50/50 shot at best, therefore leaving their prospect of actually getting paid for playing hoops as a marginal bet? Coach Barnes’ biggest shot in his own toe ever?

by UT Bondman on Nov 14, 2011 2:50 PM CST reply actions

If they didn’t know from reading the papers and watching ESPN what the risks were, they probably weren’t smart enough to stay in school. They had plenty of people around them—-it didn’t begin and end with Rick—-to advise them.

by Jake Lonergan on Nov 14, 2011 2:59 PM CST reply actions

Yes, but those other people likely DIDN’T benefit if they stayed, only if they left – Rick sometimes acts as if he’s running an NBA prep school as opposed to a honest-to-God, consistently good college basketball program – WTF!

by UT Bondman on Nov 14, 2011 3:06 PM CST reply actions

I can give you a basketball report in just one sentence.

They will start out strong and fall apart at the end of the season ending with a loss in the first weekend in the tourney.

Just archive that are reprint every November and you are covered.

by tom on Nov 14, 2011 3:11 PM CST reply actions

Bondman,

I agree with Jake in that it isn’t exactly a shock that the NBA negotiations have fallen apart and there is a very good chance the season will be missed and possibly some of 2012-13.

Each of these kids seem to have a myriad of people around them vying for a spot close to them be it family, AAU coaches, friends, and then the agents. A college education doesn’t do much for the entourage. Rick can counter, but in the end it is who they trust and depend to help them make these decisions.

by Davey O'Brien on Nov 14, 2011 3:32 PM CST reply actions

BOJ: I thought about making a funny but didn’t want one too many dick jokes in the post. Like Kabongo, I set you up well, though.

lowdenswain: I went to the UH opener on Saturday and don’t think I counted more than 1,500 people there. Danuel House and Chicken Knowles were in the crowd, and I opined that if were looking around the arena, I’d be having second thoughts about playing in this environment. Then I thought about our dismal Texas attendance and thought…never mind.

srr: Thanks, man. I’m honored to have nice words coming from you. I agree on the JCB point and the boneheaded play. Brain-dead combo guard seems to be a common Big 12 theme of late…Dunn, Pullen, Tyshawn Taylor, Willie Warren, etc. and so forth.

ballrific: Because the ref counted to four instead of five. That’s why.

tjarks: DraftExpress has J’Covan as the #44 best junior…so I guess there’s a snowball’s chance.

txsa: A two-year minimum would be good for college basketball as a whole, but terrible for the players. The main beneficiaries would be the blue bloods (UK, UNC, Duke, KU, UCLA…) who are getting these players anyway and now get them for an extra year to boot. If you’re a high school kid who now knows he has to stay two years instead of one, don’t you start thinking about schools that have the best collegiate basketball environment?

Barton: Given the state of our offense, I think Trips is in process of changing his moniker to “Student Body Right” and then weeping into his Texas snuggie. I’m sure he’ll be along at some point to opine on the round balls.

Bondman/Jake/Davey: I’m still not convinced that it was an entirely bad decision for Thompson and Joseph to leave. Even with a monster year, no way Thompson gets drafted #4 overall next year—he’s not going to grow any taller. I also doubt Joseph sniffs the first round as more and more evidence points to him not being a point guard. So both of them took advantage of a weak draft class and declared early. They’re not drawing an NBA salary, but they’re still getting shoe deals (I believe TT signed with Nike), sponsorships, appearance fees, agent salary advances, etc. The loss of PT hurts, but if they’re smart, they’re keeping up with their conditioning and practice, just away from the NBA owned facilities and staff. And it’s not like Texas was the only one…Duke lost Irving, Kentucky Knight, UConn Kemba, Kansas the Morri, UCLA Honeycutt…there’s guys that were just chasing the money and value optimization.

tom: #BELIEVE

by jc25 on Nov 14, 2011 4:29 PM CST reply actions

jc25, thanks for the Kabongian assist. I enjoyed it thoroughly.

by burntorangejuice on Nov 14, 2011 5:55 PM CST reply actions

I can tell y’all right now that Cory Joseph doesn’t regret his decision at all. Cory Joseph guaranteed himself over $4 million dollars! A 6’3 guard who is neither a true point, supremely athletic or a gifted scorer. What’s staying in school going to do for him but expose his flaws as a player? Shelvin Mack went in the second round last year, and I doubt Joseph would ever be as good a college player as Mack was at Butler. If he has to wait a while for his money, I’m sure he’ll manage.

by tjarks on Nov 15, 2011 1:48 AM CST reply actions