Adjusted Stats through 11/12/11

The color scheme on the Adjusted Stats page seems to have been selected by a bowhunter.

Your matchup predictor, which obviously does not take into account Foz being out and Brown, Bergeron and Ship being hobbled, predicts we win 31-27. Knowing our injuries and history against Snyder, I’d set the line at KSU minus 5 or so. Yet Vegas has us as a 9 1/2 point favorite.

What the heck am I missing? The good news is that whenever Vegas sets a line that makes me think easy money, it always seems to turn out that they are actually smarter than me.

If I recall correctly, we beat Snyder’s last good team at home with a slightly above average team.

Tower- you are correct, but we won that game by 4.

I could certainly see us winning this game in a hard fought battle, or even doing it by double digits, but Vegas is essentially saying that there is a 50% chance Texas wins by double digits. Yes, I get the whole purpose of a line is to get half on each side, but then that just means there is some smart money out there that is betting Texas heavy. Like I said, I just don’t get it.

Huck, sorry if I turned your weekly adjusted stats post into a gambling forum.

No issues here with a gambling discussion. But I’m just as lost as you on the line this week. Best I can offer without looking at it in-depth is that KSU is in a tough spot after a rough stretch and the assumption that we get Brown and Bergeron back and maybe Shipley.

That line makes me want to bet lots of money on K-State. I’ve never bet on a game in my life but it seems as if this would be a good time. K-State covers = $$. Texas wins = happiness.