jones Top Ten - Week Eleven - 2011

The Pac-12 does not have a single win over a decent out-of-conference team. Not one. Two of their teams in your Top 5?

Oregon has lost every game it has played against an out-of-conference foe with a good d-line for the past three years: Auburn, LSU, Ohio State, and Boise State twice. They’re Georgia Tech with better athletes. Scary with a mismatch, dangerous with only a week’s prep, and relatively docile against size and speed in the defense with any extra prep time.

I’ll believe it until they prove me wrong.

I think you are right about the devil and Mike Gundy.

Game Day at Cougar High next Saturday, who woulda thunk it?

G.O.F. —

Good points all…but you are also describing the SEC. LSU has a blocker win against Oregon, which I obviously honor. Other than that? LSU over WVU and ‘Bama over an overranked Penn State. That’s it. Yet I have two SEC teams in the top two. If that’s your metric, then the Big 12 is by far the nation’s best conference (a point I agree with, actually).

But it’s irrelevant. The question is can Oklahoma State beat Oregon? Can Arkansas? Can Clemson? Can OU? I think the answer is no. The match-up I would like to see is Wisconsin, actually (Rose Bowl?). But given what Oregon did to Stanford that might not work out so well for the Badgers.

These are the only teams I can rank. I can’t invent BIG State U with NFL Caliber D-line and rank them ahead of Oregon. The two teams that fit that description are already ranked ahead of Oregon.

I would much rather watch an Oregon/LSU rematch than watch LSU play Alabama again. Oddly enough, I am sort of pulling for Okie State (God, what have I become???)

(Oh, and let’s not compare Oregon’s horrific performances against BSU with the current team. Chip Kelly didn’t coach one of them and was in over his head in the LeGarrette Blount fiasco. He’s got a much better machine going now).

Thanks for the well considered comments.

Enjoyable stuff, jones.

I’d just move OU ahead of Hog and Cardinal. That’s it.

Fair enough. I’d move Oregon behind Oklahoma, both ahead of Arkansas, and back Stanford to 10, or perhaps drop them for Georgia or Kansas State – but that’s just me. I get where you’re coming from.

I know this stuff usually works itself out with a couple more season-ending surprises. That being said, what say you about the chances of OU sneaking in to the MNC game?

It appears as if the perfect storm could occur in that OU gets brownie points by potentially beating the #2 team in the BCS (Okie St.) while Bama and Oregon play crap games that nobody cares about.

The computers love OU – especially if they beat Okie St. The voters may want to vote against a Bama/LSU rematch. Hell, they may vote against an LSU/Oregon rematch as well. I can sort of see a split there with some voters going for OU to avoid a rematch. This, coupled with the computers could put OU over the top.

Ty: That’s insightful stuff about voters and rematches. The thought occurred to me after 9-6. I think voters DO want to avoid remaches. Much the same thing happened with Michigan after 42-39 (to Ohio State) a few years back. Right after the game, there was talk of a rematch. but Michigan, which was No. 2 the week after its loss, eventually slipped to 3 or 4.

The human polls sometimes seem overly robotic — don’t lose, you keep moving up. Lose, doesn’t matter to whom or how, and you’re cooked. Especially if it happens late in the season. Sometimes, though, the human element shows through. It does on potential rematches. (And when Mack Brown campaigns against the Cal Golden Bears on national TV.)

Jones: Great stuff on Oregon, and the TCU write-up. I’ve had Oregon pegged ahead of Stanford for six weeks. And I’ve had OU pegged ahead of OSU for 15 weeks! Sure, you gotta rank the Cowboys higher at this point. Could somebody ’splain to me what has happened to Texas Tech?

UO looks like a 4 × 100 relay team in pads and watching them against Stanford just re-enforced to me as you noted that the level of athletes LSU has on defense is scary.

Watching TCU it struck me how TCU has almost been setting up for the Boise game all season. They normally hit the short to intermediate routes in the passing game. Four of Pachall’s touchdown passes came off a double move where the set-up move was a common route they run and the Boise secondary jumped it.

Almost a reversal of the start of the year how Baylor attacked the overly aggressive TCU corners.

Will finishes his first season in the SEC 3-5 with a game against Furman and FSU left. Would beating Furman qualify the Gators for a bowl slot or would they have to beat FSU in the season finale in Gainsville?

Oregon vs. Alabama: Who wins?

As phenomenal as the Bama defense is, it’s designed more for Pro-style offenses. When we spread them out and made their safeties cover in space they could not handle Shipley and he almost single-handedly beat them. I wonder how Lester, Barron, and their LB’s would handle having to play in space against the Ducks.

LSU and Auburn beat them by having DT’s who could blow things up before they got out of hand. Not sure if Bama has that. I like a defense like our own a little better. We’re more used to dealing with it and are designed to get penetration at the DL rather than funneling and controlling their skill players.

Personally, I think Shipley was vastly underrated as a receiver in college. His movement in and out of breaks was unreal. Oregon has no one like him, and Thomas simply does not hit windows with much precision. In other words, I think our success against Alabama had far more to do with the unique talents of Shipley than something systemic in the spread versus Saban’s defensive philosophy. Alabama owned Florida’s spread that year.

Personally, I think Alabama would do to Oregon what LSU did – wear them down and get separation in the 3rd quarter. LSU did nothing fancy at all in that game, and they were short Jefferson, who is starting for them now. An underrated component of LSU’s and Alabama’s defenses, especially against an attack like Oregon’s, has to be their athletic depth on defense. Oregon’s O is not going to leave those teams gassed.

Kelly said it after the LSU game – “they have guys we don’t see too often,” or something to that effect.

If you check the Oregon boards, a contingent of their own fans do not want to LSU or Bama in a bowl game. They’re afraid one more loss will leave them with the same perception issues Ohio State had in the aftermath of their back to back MNC losses. They want Wisconsin, to which I would respond, be careful what you wish for.

You would think a Big 10 or 12 education would allow for some creative thinking on league names.

The turnover margin in the Oregon-LSU game was also huge. If I remember correctly, LSU won by exactly the number of points scored off of turnovers. Personally, I’d be interested to see a rematch where Oregon holds onto the ball better.

If nothing else, I just don’t want OU anywhere near the MNC, but the football gods always seem to smile on them just enough for them to get their asses kicked on a big stage…

Does anyone else feel like LSU has some how managed to mask heavy steroid use by their defensive players over the past 5 years. How do the always have NFL sized defenders at every meaningful positon on D?? It’s not normal.

UT-Rav,

Any more than say Wisconsin with their offensive lines?

Is it possible? Yes, but what impresses more about their defense is not their size, but the speed and athletic ability. Their defensive backs really aren’t that big, they have one linebacker over 240, one defensive end over 270, and two defensive tackles over 300 (one of which is Brockers who is 6’6").

In all honesty their defense looks like the defenses in the South have done so for at least the last decade.

RE: LSU and steroids. Maybe, but the fact is that tremendous muscle growth is possible for young men who are eating and working out all the time. It’s not like Tyrone Mathieu is 220 pounds and as quick as he is. He’s like 185 but just has a physical and aggressive mindset. I don’t think their level of athleticism on defense is far out of proportion from what you would expect from a major university with access to every Lousiana kid plus pipelines from East Texas. When we recruit well we have NFL-sized defenders at every position.

Alabama vs. the spread: It wasn’t just that Shipley is an exceptional freak that made him hard for them to cover. They are deep defensively and Saban has tons of personnel packages but that still doesn’t allow them to have perfect anti-spread and anti-prostyle personnel on defense. Their big stars aren’t anti-spread guys.

As far as getting worn out by the pace, who knows? They don’t have to defend 100 plays on a regular basis. Auburn has given them some trouble defensively the last 2 seasons using a quicker pace. The trick is having the ball enough to run a hurry-up at them by stopping their ground game and avoiding turnovers.

I agree with the observations. The hurry-up limits their situation subs and keeps them in a base defense more, which they attack out of far less than they do situational packages.

I’m just not as high on Oregon and Stanford as you are. We both agree LSU and Alabama would beat Oregon, since you have Alabama ranked higher. Thanks for taking the time.