Texas High School Football Update

The high school pages are now updated at AdjustedStats.com, including the EWP Ratings, Power Ratings, matchup analyzer, and team and district pages. As always, many thanks to Jerry at PigskinPrep.com for his fine work collecting scores data across the state.

The second round of the playoffs brings us several outstanding matchups, including two games in 5A Division I that pit overall Top 10 teams against each other.

5A Division I

Updated Probability Forecast Table

First, the Region I showdown between Allen and Euless Trinity. Last year Trinity won this second round matchup 37-35 and then went all the way to the state final before falling to Pearland. In 2008, Allen used a 34-21 win over Trinity on their way to the state championship. The analyzer calls for a 35-27 Allen win and pegs the Eagles as 7-1/2 point favorites this time around.

In Region II, DeSoto actually took over the #1 power rating in the state after their 54-10 destruction of A&M Consolidated in the first round. Dallas Skyline awaits on Saturday with the analyzer considering DeSoto around a 3-1/2 point favorite.

Not much has changed in Region III with the table still calling it about a 60% chance of a Cy-Fair versus Cy Falls regional final. In Region IV, San Antonio Madison's upset win over Converse Judson has increased Harlingen's regional title probability to over 63%.

5A Division II

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Region III sees Katy and Cy Woods meet in the second round in a game that, according to the ratings, matches the best two teams left in their half of the bracket. Katy is a 10 point favorite in what is considered their toughest test until a potential state title game. Your favorite Barking Carnival author (me, in case you're not sure) will be at this one on Friday night so obviously Cy Woods pulls the upset.

In Region I, Flower Mound Marcus is now over a 50% favorite to take the region with Abilene the main competition remaining. Longview remains a heavy favorite in Region II now at 1-to-2 while Region IV still projects to be a showdown between Cibolo Steele and San Antonio Reagan.

4A Division I

Updated Probability Forecast Table

The story here remains Lake Travis and how they'll handle the handful of competitive matchups between them and the title. Smithson Valley is this week's challenger while Cedar Park likely awaits two weeks later in the regional final.

Pearland Dawson remains the likely matchup in the state semifinal with Highland Park predicted to meet them in the state championship.

4A Division II

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Aledo faces one of their two main Region I rivals in the form of Mansfield Summit on Friday. Stephenville figures to meet them in the regional final. Wylie East was upset by Frisco so the state semifinal should be against either Corsicana or Frisco Centennial.

Manvel struggled more than predicted with El Campo, but remains the Region III favorite ahead of La Marque and Brenham. The Region IV champion still figures to be either Port Lavaca Calhoun or Kerrville Tivy, with Corpus Christi Calallen and Austin Vandegrift also in contention.

3A Division I

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Tyler Chapel Hill begins a tough back-to-back this week as they take on Waco La Vega before a probably regional final against Navasota. The tougher region explains why Alvarado remains the favorite to take the state title.

3A Division II

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Coldspring-Oakhurst struggled last week with Bridge City and so the updated table shows Gilmer as the new favorite to win the title. Wimberley is still the favorite in Region IV and third most likely to win state.

2A Division I

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Godley is still the favorite but with a blowout 49-3 win in the first round, New Boston is now nearly as likely to win it all. The computer predicts that one of those two will meet one of Crockett and Hempstead in the championship game.

2A Division II

Updated Probability Forecast Table

After a first round bye, Refugio remains the favorite in this bracket. There were no significant upsets in the first round, so Region IV's biggest challenge still figures to be in the regional final against Sonora or possibly East Bernard. Region III is still between Franklin, Rogers, and Lexington.

On the other side of the draw, Region I is still headed toward a third round showdown between Idalou and Cisco while Corsicana Mildred and DeKalb should meet for the Region II championship.

1A Division I

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Pre-playoffs favorite Mason is now looking up at Clarksville in the probability table with Region III favorite Garrison right behind. The computer still sees Albany as the Region I favorite with Sundown, Sunray, and Canadian being the most likely challengers.

1A Division II

Updated Probability Forecast Table

No real changes here after the first weekend and Tenaha is still a coin flip against the field with the anticipated state championship against Windthorst one week closer to reality.

TAPPS

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Division I Current Favorite: Fort Worth Nolan Catholic
Division II Current Favorite: Midland Christian
Division III Current Favorite: Bullard Brook Hill
Division IV Current Favorite: Muenster Sacred Heart

No favorites got upset. That's what I know about TAPPS.

Six-Man Spotlight

UIL 6-Man Div I Probability Forecast Table
UIL 6-Man Div II Probability Forecast Table
TAPPS 6-Man Probability Forecast Table
T-CAL 6-Man Probability Forecast Table
TCAF 6-Man Probability Forecast Table

And now the moment you've all been waiting for. Six-man has the most concentrated power center in all of Texas high school football as the top 5 power teams all reside in Division I Region II. And while Ira is not the #1 power team, they are on top of the EWP ratings, they're undefeated, and they dismissed Ackerly Sands last week 56-40. They take on Water Valley in one of the two Region II showdowns this week with #1 power team (despite two losses) Rankin taking on Borden County in a rematch of a Week 0 game in which Rankin prevailed 38-26.

In Division II, Richland Springs is a heavy favorite.

TAPPS 6-Man Division I is a competitive bracket now in the quarterfinals with Dallas Covenant, Abilene Christian, and Bulverde Bracken Christian the favorites. TAPPS Division II should be a race between the winner of this week's game between Brownwood Victory Life and Dickinson Pine Drive Baptist, Fredericksburg Heritage Christian, and Wichita Falls Notre Dame.

T-CAL is down to the semifinals with Waco Live Oak the Division I favorite and Marshall Christian Academy the Division II favorite.

TCAF has their championship games this weekend with Division I favorite Midland Trinity taking on Lucas Christian Academy while in Division II, favorite Azle Christian School will face Arlington High Point Academy.

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