Big 12 Games Preview – 11/19/11

Time for the weekly look at the upcoming Big 12 games based on ratings and adjusted stats to date. As always, keep in mind that personnel matchups, coaching decisions, injuries, etc. will not play into the numerical predictions and are all important information that will still need to be considered.

The stat regression model for 2011 through the games of 11/12/11 is 3.24*TPPA + 2.82*TRPC - 257.28*TVPP, which is used for the below analyses.

Also note that my power rating predicted scores below will differ from the analyzer because I'm using a standard 3 point homefield advantage while the analyzer uses the season results to date. Additionally, the official picks published later in the week may differ from the Other Games of Interest section because standard deviations aren't considered here.

Oklahoma St. (-26.5) @ Iowa St. - Friday, 7:00 ESPN
Power Rating Predicted Score - Oklahoma St. 48, Iowa St. 19
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Oklahoma St. 33, Iowa St. 14
Matchup Analyzer Link

Man, I really need to get around to adding a pace component to the stat model. I won't be around to watch this game as I'll be at a high school playoff game, but I'm not exactly broken up about it. You might worry about a bad spot for the Cowboys in their last game before Oklahoma but the bye week in between makes that less likely. Oklahoma State 51, Iowa State 17.

Kansas (+30.5) @ Texas A&M 11:00 FX
Power Rating Predicted Score - Texas A&M 51, Kansas 20
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Texas A&M 44, Kansas 22
Matchup Analyzer Link

I'd like to think the Aggies might lose, but that isn't going to happen. Still, they're 2-8 against the spread this year beating it only against SMU and Baylor. The Jayhawks aren't a former SWC team, so A&M wins 45-17.

Texas Tech (+18) @ Missouri 2:30 ABC
Power Rating Predicted Score - Missouri 43, Texas Tech 22
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Missouri 46, Texas Tech 26
Matchup Analyzer Link

The Red Raider collapse continued last week with a 60-point loss at home to Oklahoma State. I don't think I'd pick Tech to cover a pick'em game against Estacado High School right now. Missouri 45-24.

Kansas St. (+9.5) @ Texas 7:00 FX
Power Rating Predicted Score - Texas 31, Kansas St. 28
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Texas 28, Kansas St. 21
Matchup Analyzer Link

There are a lot of questions this week on this line considering the Texas injury situation and performance last week in Columbia. As a card-carrying hopeless optimist, though, I am going to take Texas to win this one as long as they don't lose the turnover margin by more than one; Texas is predicted to outgain the Wildcats 5.73-4.26 on a per play basis. The staff should now have a full week to gameplan with a better idea of who's available on the offensive side, whether or not they release that information to the public. And as banged up as Klein has to be by now, I think Texas surprises this Saturday as reality finally catches up with the Wildcats. That's right, the first time I'm picking against our Masters from Manhattan is against Texas. Texas wins this one 31-21.

Oklahoma (-15.5) @ Baylor 7:00 ABC
Power Rating Predicted Score - Oklahoma 52, Baylor 30
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Oklahoma 36, Baylor 32
Matchup Analyzer Link

The Bears survived Kansas in overtime last week, but like you I couldn't see the game. What I did note is that they averaged 8.7 yards per play compared to the Jayhawks 4.4 but they turned it over 4 times. I'll be interested to see Oklahoma's offense without Broyles as they have other talented receivers but nobody in Broyles' productivity zip code (not many do). They should still have plenty to fend off Baylor, but I'll take the Bears to cover with a 45-31 final.

THE FOUR GAMES WHERE THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE CONSENSUS SPREAD BY THE LARGEST NUMBER OF POINTS

We are getting very late in the season and so there are not many more large discrepancies ahead of us.

Arizona (+10.5) @ Arizona St.
Power Rating Predicted Score - Arizona St. 42, Arizona 26
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Arizona St. 41, Arizona 25
Matchup Analyzer Link

Well that is some pleasant consistency between the two models. The Sun Devils lost in Pullman late Saturday night and the Wildcats have looked a bit better since Mike Stoops was relieved of his duties.

Nebraska (+3.5) @ Michigan
Power Rating Predicted Score - Michigan 30, Nebraska 21
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Michigan 32, Nebraska 25
Matchup Analyzer Link

Like I said, the discrepancies are getting very small. But I'm a creature of habit so this section of the weekly post remains.

Penn St. (+6.5) @ Ohio St.
Power Rating Predicted Score - Ohio St. 12, Penn St. 9
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Penn St. 17, Ohio St. 14
Matchup Analyzer Link

I don't think I need to detail the factors going into this game that aren't considered by the models. Amazing how confident they are in the under on a 39.5 total, though.

Marshall (-12.5) @ Memphis
Power Rating Predicted Score - Marshall 36, Memphis 15
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Marshall 33, Memphis 17
Matchup Analyzer Link

Memphis is terrible. Marshall is merely bad. I know nothing more than that about these teams.

That's it for this week.

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