Texas High School Football Update

The high school pages are now updated at AdjustedStats.com, including the EWP Ratings, Power Ratings, matchup analyzer, and team and district pages. As always, many thanks to Jerry at PigskinPrep.com for his fine work collecting scores data across the state.

5A Division I

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Euless Trinity eliminated Allen for the second consecutive year by a 28-21 final. The Allen QB was stopped at the one yard line on fourth-and-goal in a game that may end up being the best in the playoffs this year. Elsewhere in Region I, Southlake Carroll blew out Cedar Hill 40-7 in what may have been their most impressive performance of the year. The result impressed the computer and so Trinity's chances of winning the region didn't go up as much as we would have thought before the weekend.

In Region II, Dallas Skyline won their showdown with DeSoto 41-31 and in so doing jumped all the way to #4 in the EWP ratings as well as the power rating. With what now rates as the #1 defense in the state, the Raiders have become the favorite to take home the Division I title helped in part by an easier road to the semifinals than the Region I teams.

Region III saw Cy Falls upset by Houston Lamar while Cy-Fair survived Katy Cinco Ranch 21-14. Cy-Fair is now the regional favorite, but defending champions Pearland could stand in the way.

In Region IV, San Antonio Madison will face Laredo United in one regional semifinal while Harlingen, still the regional favorite despite nearly being shocked by Del Rio, will take on San Antonio Warren in the other.

5A Division II

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Katy defeated Cy Woods 44-30 in their game on Friday night and the Tigers are now a clear favorite to take home the championship.

Their opponent in the state semifinal should be either Cibolo Steele or San Antonio Reagan as neither have fallen to an upset in Region IV this far.

In Region I, Flower Mound Marcus was taken out 27-21 by Mansfield Timberview and the region is now wide open between Timberview, Mansfield, and Abilene.

Longview remains a heavy favorite in Region II still at 1-to-2 although they have a competitive matchup with Spring DeKaney this week.

4A Division I

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Lake Travis dismissed Smithson Valley 42-21 and looks forward now to a probable rematch against Cedar Park in two weeks in the regional final.

Pearland Dawson remains the likely matchup in the state semifinal although Angleton will be a tough out.

Highland Park is still the favorite to come out of the other half of the bracket, but four strong teams in Tyler, Rockwall-Heath, Waco Midway, and Denton Ryan should challenge them.

4A Division II

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Aledo easily took care of business against Mansfield Summit 59-23 in what was supposed to be a competitive matchup. They are now one week away from a chance at a rematch against Stephenville in the regional final, where they hope to avenge a 48-47 Week Zero loss.

Corsicana and Frisco Centennial meet this weekend in a game that figures to decide Region II.

Manvel handled Houston Yates as expected and projects to meet La Marque in a district rematch in the Region III final after Brenham was shocked last weeken by Beaumont Ozen. Manvel won the first meeting 29-14.

Region IV features four teams with a realistic chance remaining, but the winner of this week's game between Port Lavaca Calhoun and Kerrville Tivy will be favored in the final next week.

3A Division I

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Tyler Chapel Hill won 27-20 over a tough Waco La Vega squad and now has a regional final against Navasota. Alvarado and Henderson are favored to win Regions I and II, respectively, this weekend.

3A Division II

Updated Probability Forecast Table

After Coldspring-Oakhurst struggled for the second straight week, Gilmer is now a clear favorite to win the title. Wimberley is still the favorite in Region IV and third most likely to win state and they should meet the most hated team in the state, Devine, in the regional final.

2A Division I

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Muleshoe upset previous favorite Godley 43-27 this week, so the role of overall favorite has now shifted to New Boston. Crockett is predicted to win Region III while Hempstead is the Region IV favorite.

2A Division II

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Refugio has lost the favorite position to Corsicana Mildred. Refugio's biggest Region IV challenge should still be in the regional final against Sonora or East Bernard although Poth has an outside chance of an upset this week. Region III should be won by Franklin or Arp.

Region I should be decided this week in a third round showdown between Idalou and Cisco while Region IV is open for Mildred after Lone Oak upset DeKalb.

1A Division I

Probability Forecast Table

This bracket is the most wide open in the state as five teams remain with over a 10% chance to win it all. Pre-tournament favorite Mason remain in that position but have a competitive matchup with Ganado this week. Clarksville, Garrison, and Albany round out the five favorites.

1A Division II

Probability Forecast Table

Still no real changes here with Tenaha still a coin flip against the field with the anticipated state championship against Windthorst one week closer to reality.

TAPPS

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Division I Current Favorite: Fort Worth Nolan Catholic
Division II Current Favorite: Midland Christian
Division III Current Favorite: Bullard Brook Hill
Division IV Current Favorite: Hallettsville Sacred Heart

Muenster Sacred Heart was the only TAPPS favorite to go down this week with The Woodlands Christian doing the honors.

Six-Man

The first week of the Division 1 Region II Final Four saw two great battles as Ira and Borden County advanced over Water Valley and Rankin, respectively.

In Division II, Richland Springs remains a heavy favorite.

TAPPS 6-Man Division I still sees Dallas Covenant as the favorite, but the winner between Abilene Christian, and Bulverde Bracken Christian will actually be favored in the final.

TAPPS Division II should be a final battle between Dickinson Pine Drive Baptist and Fredericksburg Heritage Christian.

T-CAL has their championship games this weekend and Waco Live Oak is heavily favored in Division I while Stephenville Home School is a slight Division II favorite.

TCAF decided their champions last weekend. Congratulations to Division I champion Lucas Christian Academy and Division II champion Azle Christian School.