Texas High School Football Update

The high school pages are now updated at AdjustedStats.com, including the EWP Ratings, Power Ratings, matchup analyzer, and team and district pages. As always, many thanks to Jerry at PigskinPrep.com for his fine work collecting scores data across the state.

Class 5A

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Division I

Just one week after knocking Allen out of the playoffs, Euless Trinity was stifled by Arlington Martin and fell in a 19-7 upset. Martin now takes on Southlake Carroll, who survived Arlington Bowie 21-17, in the Region I championship game.

In Region II, state title favorite Dallas Skyline cruised past Klein Oak 42-24 and will now face The Woodlands for the Region II title.

Region III saw the end of a disappointing postseason for the Cy-Fair schools as Hightower eliminated Cy-Fair 21-14. Pearland advanced easily 35-14 over Houston Lamar and will be favored over Hightower this week.

In Region IV, San Antonio Madison fought off Laredo United 50-41 in one regional semifinal while Harlingen scored a wild 53-28 win over San Antonio Warren in the other. The Cardinals scored 5 return touchdowns against the Warriors on 4 interceptions (3 by one player) and an attempted onside kick.

Division II

Heading into last week, Katy was the second heaviest favorite in all of UIL to win their championship. That all changed thanks to a fantastic performance by the La Porte defense in a shocking 9-7 win over the Tigers. With that result, the Division II bracket is now wide open. La Porte's opponent in the Region III final will be Port Arthur Memorial, who won the battle of Memorials over the Houston version 24-14.

The winner of that game will face the Region IV champion to be determined between Cibolo Steele and San Antonio Reagan. This has been the predicted final since the playoffs began, and Steele advanced with a 28-0 shutout over Laredo Alexander while Reagan eased past McAllen Memorial 35-28 behind two 50+ yard touchdown receptions by Austin Hays.

In Region I, Abilene defeated Mansfield 25-22 after Mansfield went for the touchdown and a win in a goal-to-go situation late in the game. Abilene will meet Mansfield Timberview, 29-25 winners over Abilene Cooper, in the regional championship game.

And there was one upset to go as Longview fell 17-6 against Spring DeKaney in their Region II semifinal. DeKaney now takes on Westfield in an all-Spring regional title game after Westfield eliminated Rowlett 33-25. Westfield won the first meeting 38-31 but DeKaney is an 8-point favorite in the rematch.

Class 4A

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Division I

The heavily anticipated rematch between Lake Travis and Cedar Park in the Region IV final is now a reality. The Cedar Park defense has been in good form, posting shutouts in each of the last two playoff rounds. Still, the Cavaliers are a 13-point favorite this week and won the regular season meeting 24-21 after leading 24-7 in the fourth quarter.

Pearland Dawson and Angleton both escaped the upset bug this week and will meet in the Region III final for the right to face the Lake Travis/Cedar Park winner.

Highland Park had been the favorite to come out of the other half of the bracket, but Tyler pulled out a 42-39 win in their matchup. Tyler is now predicted to meet Waco Midway in the state semis after Midway took out previously undefeated Denton Ryan 19-7.

Division II

While still the favorite in this bracket, Aledo faces a stern test this week in the Region I final against Stephenville, where they hope to avenge a 48-47 Week Zero loss.

Corsicana dismissed Frisco Centennial 52-31 and are heavy favorites to defeat Kilgore for Region II.

Manvel and La Marque will meet as expected in a district rematch in the Region III final after Manvel rolled Dayton 49-10 while La Marque eliminated Beaumont Ozen 18-6 in a contest marred by a postgame brawl.

Region IV saw Port Lavaca Calhoun taken out 50-43 in a great game by Kerrville Tivy. Tivy now meets Calallen for the Region IV title.

Class 3A

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Division I

Tyler Chapel Hill ran past Navasota 56-46 and figures to face the winner of a great semifinal matchup between Alvarado and Henderson for the state championship.

Division II

Gilmer is now a heavy favorite to take the title after Coldspring-Oakhurst once again squeaked out a win. Wimberley assumes the mantle of the most popular team in Texas as the appropriately named Texans take on Devine in the Region IV final. The analyzer has pegged Wimberley as 15-1/2 point favorites to end our long national nightmare known as the Warhorse playoff run.

Class 2A

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Division I

For the second straight week, the 2A Division I overall favorite was knocked out. This time it was New Boston falling 45-26 at the hands of Melissa. This bracket is also wide open now but Crockett and Hempstead are co-favorites predicted to win their regions this week and meet in the semifinals.

Division II

The apparent collision course between Refugio and Corsicana Mildred was not disturbed this week and the two teams are still predicted to meet in two weeks for the state championship. Refugio's opponent in their regional final this week is Sonora while Lexington and Arp battle for Region III.

Cisco is favored in Region I over Holliday while Mildred shouldn't be bothered too much by Gunter for the Region II title, although last week proved no favorite is safe.

Class A

Probability Forecast Table

Division I

Mason defeated Ganado 7-0 in a defensive struggle and in so doing launched themselves into heavy favorite position in this bracket thanks in part to Clarksville being upset by Mart.

Garrison is favored to win Region III this weekend over Lovelady.

Division II

Still no real changes here with Tenaha still a coin flip against the field with the anticipated state championship against Windthorst one week closer to reality. Windthorst, though, faces a tough contest this week against Munday in the Region II final.

TAPPS

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Division I Final Favorite: Fort Worth Nolan Catholic
Division II Final Favorite: Midland Christian
Division III Final Favorite: Bullard Brook Hill
Division IV Final Favorite: Hallettsville Sacred Heart

No championship favorites lost in the TAPPS semis, so the favorites remain the same for the championship games played this weekend.

Six-Man

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Borden County survived the tough Division 1 Region II Final Four with a 49-32 vicotry over Ira and are now favorites to take home the title. There's no time to rest, though, as a tough Turkey Valley team hopes to take advantage of any possible letdown.

In Division II, Richland Springs remains a heavy favorite.

TAPPS 6-Man Division I will have an evenly matched championship game between Dallas Covenant and Abilene Christian.

TAPPS Division II sees Fredericksburg Heritage Christian favored over Granbury Happy Hill Academy after Happy Hill upset previous favorite Dickinson Pine Drive Baptist.

Congratulations to T-CAL Division I champions Waco Live Oak and Division II champions Stephenville Home School.

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