Big 12 Games Preview – Bedlam and Baptists

Time for the weekly look at the upcoming Big 12 games based on ratings and adjusted stats to date. As always, keep in mind that personnel matchups, coaching decisions, injuries, etc. will not play into the numerical predictions and are all important information that will still need to be considered. It's a light slate this week with only three Big 12 games on conference championship weekend.

The stat regression model for 2011 through the games of 11/26/11 is 3.48*TPPA + 2.52*TRPC - 261.54*TVPP, which is used for the below analyses.

Also note that my power rating predicted scores below will differ from the analyzer because I'm using a standard 3 point homefield advantage while the analyzer uses the season results to date. Additionally, the official picks published later in the week may differ from the other games section because standard deviations aren't considered here.

Iowa St. (+11.5) @ Kansas St. - 11:30 FSN
Power Rating Predicted Score - Kansas St. 35, Iowa St. 21
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Kansas St. 27, Iowa St. 20
Matchup Analyzer Link

The yardage numbers actually favor the Cyclones, but the Wildcats remain favored even in the stat model due to turnover differential. However, Kansas State's luck on turnovers has begun to even out, so I look for Iowa St. to cover but Snyder Magic to pull out a victory in the end. Call it 34-27 for Kansas State.

Texas (+2.5) @ Baylor 2:30 ABC
Power Rating Predicted Score - Texas 35, Baylor 34
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Baylor 32, Texas 28
Matchup Analyzer Link

This would seem like a letdown spot for Texas, but my groundless optimism from last week continues unabated. Plus the extra couple of days coming off a Thursday victory should theoretically help the team refocus a little more easily. Robert Griffin III was banged up last week but should be good to go this week by all accounts (including the point spread), so don't look for a Longhorn advantage there. Texas' defense has developed into a premier unit at this point in the season, which it has to be in order to carry their teammates on the other side of the ball. Like I said, I'm an optimist. Texas wins outright 34-28.

Oklahoma (+3.5) @ Oklahoma St. 7:00 ABC
Power Rating Predicted Score - Oklahoma St. 40, Oklahoma 37
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Oklahoma St. 32, Oklahoma 25
Matchup Analyzer Link

The power ratings are essentially equal with homefield advantage accounting for the predicted margin. However, Oklahoma's offense hasn't been as efficient since Ryan Broyles went down with an injury. The Sooners run an obscene amount of plays (177 in the last two games) so you can't look at totals to determine the effect. They averaged 7.0 yards per play against a Baylor defense that yields 6.1 to an average offense and 5.7 against an Iowa State defense that allows 5.2 to an average offense. They are still a good unit, but that small difference may be enough to get the Cowboys over the hump in this one. Oklahoma State wins 44-37 and the only question left is whether or not it's enough to avoid an SEC rematch in the BCS championship game. A Clemson win over Virginia Tech in Charlotte would help the cause.

THE FOUR GAMES WHERE THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE CONSENSUS SPREAD BY THE LARGEST NUMBER OF POINTS

Small slate plus late season equals not many discrepancies.

Louisiana-Monroe (-8) @ Florida Atlantic
Power Rating Predicted Score - Louisiana-Monroe 32, Florida Atlantic 18
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Louisiana-Monroe 25, Florida Atlantic 13
Matchup Analyzer Link

I haven't watched either of these teams play. Good luck.

Troy (+17.5) @ Arkansas St.
Power Rating Predicted Score - Arkansas St. 37, Troy 16
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Arkansas St. 34, Troy 13
Matchup Analyzer Link

Arkansas State is playing for the coveted undefeated Sun Belt season against a Troy squad that is looking to get the season over with. Still, it's Sun Belt football so good luck.

Middle Tennessee St. (+5) @ North Texas
Power Rating Predicted Score - North Texas 34, Middle Tennessee St. 25
Stat Regression Predicted Score - North Texas 33, Middle Tennessee St. 25
Matchup Analyzer Link

Apparently my Sun Belt model is broken. Or maybe Vegas' is but I doubt it. Have I said good luck yet?

Fresno St. (+7.5) @ San Diego St.
Power Rating Predicted Score - San Diego St. 36, Fresno St. 25
Stat Regression Predicted Score - San Diego St. 40, Fresno St. 24
Matchup Analyzer Link

San Diego State paid off last week but teams appearing two weeks in a row in this list have a bad history on the second appearance (e.g., Georgia Tech and Michigan) so beware.

That's it for this week.

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