Quick and dirty BCS update
USA Today poll apparently out per CNNSI.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/polls/coaches/
My projection on the 40 2nd place Alabama votes had them at points of 1397; actual appears to be 1399. My projection for 19 OSU 2nd place votes, 32 3rd place votes, and 8 4th place votes (trailing Stanford) had OSU at 1368 points. Actual appears to be 1367.
If this were identical in the Harris poll, and if OSU were to get its best case computer scenario, the final BCS tally would be #2 Bama 0.9390, #3 OSU 0.9378. Excruciatingly close. That tells you, if the Harris can go just a little more pro-OSU, OSU could pull it out. But OSU needs the computers to go there way. Either Massey or Wolfe goes Bama, and this is over.
Unfortunately, Bama is looking like they may just eek this out. But don't give up hope Poke fans. Maybe the Harris voters are feeling more of an rematch backlash affect.
Earlier in the morning....
Spent a good amount of time analyzing the human polls. The way this goes is all about what you believe the voters will do. And none of us know with any degree of precision how big of a delta there will be based on the OSU/OU result.
Going into the weekend, Bama was getting about 55 out of 59 second place votes. OSU was relegated to getting 3rd, 4th, and 5th place votes (with many below that level as well). Bear in mind while VT did lose (and they will be putting about 20-ish of 3rd place votes for the taking), Stanford still sits there as a wedge this week. I estimate they had about 16 3rd place votes as of last weekend.
So what do you believe?
Here's an easy scenario to think about if you want to have hope for the Pokes: when the polls come out today, Bama takes 75% of 2nd place votes (and gets 25% of 3rd place votes), and OSU gets 25% of 2nd place votes (with 75% of 3rd place votes…. and NO VOTES below 3rd). OSU also wins Wolfe and Massey, giving them their best case 0.04 computer lead. In this scenario, OSU edges out Bama.
Unfortunately, the easy scenario is not realistic in any shape or form. Ballots are messy, and several voters will put OSU lower than 3rd (unfortunately). And several voters will continue to keep Stanford at 3rd. To me, the key number is 40. If Bama gets 40 (out of 59) or more coaches to vote them #2, they will beat OSU even in the bullish OSU computer scenario. If Bama gets less, OSU has a prayer. When I say this, I’m assuming about 8 voters (out of 59) keep Stanford ahead of OSU, meaning that Stanford loses about half of their 3rd place votes last week by virtue of not playing and viewers watching the OU asskicking.
If you think OSU can get 20 or more 2nd place votes, you believe OSU will be ahead of Bama on 1/3 or more of the human ballots. When I put it in those terms, and stop getting scientific about it, that sounds possible.
This is all of course hinging on whether OSU gets Wolfe. Brad Edwards posted that he’s heard Wolfe is pro-Bama. The numbers are a lot harder for OSU if Wolfe goes Bama’s way. Frankly, it starts to get really hard.
For now, given the fact the voters tend to have a strong SEC bias, given the uncertainty of both computers going OSU’s way, and given my feel Stanford can stay ahead of OSU on at least half a dozen ballots, I’m thinking Bama pulls it out. But if there is any “rematch backlash” it could be really tight (my heart is pulling for OSU by the way, and I still have hope). Will update more as other polls/computers get released.
original message from earlier in the morning...
Gents,
I've been taking most of this season off but couldn't help myself reading the news this morning. Bama/OKSt could be interesting. I am working through the computers now, and am posting some thoughts below. Will update this post later this morning when I've dug into the human polls a little more. Clearly, the humans control this decision. And it's safe to say OKSt has a tailwind from the computers, just a question of how much (0.02 advantage or 0.04?).
1. Sagarin is already out, and has Bama #2 and OSU #3.
2. Colley Matrix is safely #2 for OSU, keeping Bama at #3.
3. Billinsley’s ratings keep a score static if a team doesn’t play (the case for Bama), and adds to their score if they win against a strong team. Seems highly likely OSU will jump to #2 here.
4. OSU already had a solid lead in Anderson Hester, and with a win over #6 OU, that poll is not in question.
The two tougher calls are Massey and Wolfe. Massey has a heavy schedule strength influence, and also gives more value to games played late in the season rather than those played early in the season. The first factor is probably slightly bullish for Bama, the second factor is definitely a positive for OkSt.
Wolfe is similar to Massey, connects all CFB teams and ranks based on probability of what losses they have based on their schedule versus actual losses. The Wolfe advantage for Bama was 8.887 to 8.582 coming in, but OSU going to 11-1 (obviously same record as Bama) by beating Wolfe's #10 team will obviously have an impact.
Bottom line: Bama came into this week with a 0.95 to 0.93 advantage over OSU in the computer scores of the BCS. I think OSU will outrank Bama in AH, RB, CM, while Bama has been confirmed to outrank in JS. I think it is unlikely Bama keeps #2 spot in both KM and PW. If Bama can hang on to one, then OSU will have a 0.95 to 0.93 advantage in the computers. If OSU jumps Bama in both KM and PW (possible), OSU will have a 0.96 to 0.92 advantage (twice the computer lead).
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Very interesting. I hope the humans have seen enough of the Bama-LSU game to know that we don’t want to see that again.
by puckhead on Dec 4, 2011 10:15 AM CST reply actions
When I had to make the walk of shame (is it still shameful for guys?) back to my house this morning without pants (yes, yes it is), I was ready to write the rest of the day off as shitty.
Thank You: you just brightened my outlook. Thought there was no chance the pundits East of the mississippi would hazard a glance at OSU before getting back on SEC cock wagon.
That there are actually people that want to see more of Alabama-LSU after the 9-6 torture is why we’re in a recession and why the big bang theory is popular……..I wrote that sarcastically, but now I’m not so sure.
by cardinaltex on Dec 4, 2011 10:19 AM CST reply actions
Wouldn’t strength of schedule benefit OSU? Bama has coasted on the SEC’s reputation without actually beating many strong teams.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 10:34 AM CST reply actions
Hopefully there will be sec backlash outside of the south.
by Mysterious Package on Dec 4, 2011 10:36 AM CST reply actions
Last night they posted during the game that if OSU had the computers than they would need 25% of human voters to put them 2nd and the majority of the 75% of remaining voters to have them no lower than 3rd.
Not sure how accurate that is.
by maninblack on Dec 4, 2011 10:41 AM CST reply actions
SEC thinks they can get 3 teams in the championship
by Mysterious Package on Dec 4, 2011 10:59 AM CST reply actions
F Shitty-Excrement-Cocksuckers
F Saban-Enjoys-Cocks
F Leslie-Satiates-Unicorns
That.Is.All.
by GoHornsGo on Dec 4, 2011 11:19 AM CST reply actions
Uh-oh, T-Bone has made it clear he’ll be royally pissed if OSU is bypassed for the title game:
“If we don’t get in the BCS [title game], if I have the power to do it, I’m going to have an investigation,” Oklahoma State mega-booster T. Boone Pickens said after Saturday night’s game. “After the way we handled OU tonight, I just can’t imagine LSU playing Alabama twice. It looks like an SEC-closed system if that happens.” (quote from Mandel’s SI column)
It’s one thing to have some piss-ant U.S. Senator from Utah calling for a BCS anti-trust investigation, quite another to have a billionaire oil-man squealing his head off.
This will be fun to watch. I’m betting OSU squeaks in.
by desert fox on Dec 4, 2011 11:22 AM CST reply actions
Nickel Rover,
Completely agree. Let’s take a look. Only 2 of their wins are against currently ranked (and sustained ranking) teams. That would be Arky and Penn State.
LSU however has kicked everyone’s ass so no argument there. I’d honestly say this LSU team is right up there (and better on defense) than our 2005 team was. That’s pretty damn good.
OSU however is pretty simple. Wins over Missouri, Texas, Baylor, KState, and Oklahoma. That is 5 top 25 BCS teams compared to Bama’s 2. The OSU loss ALSO came in double OT on the road vs Bama’s came at home in just one OT. I’d say it is pretty clear who should go but people seem to refuse to take the SEC’s dick out of their mouth long enough to breathe.
For those who think the SEC is the best conference always, maybe they should chew on this. This Big 12 has one more BCS ranked team than the SEC. The Big 12 teams that are ranked have a much less desirable record but are still ranked. What does that tell you? The computers (and somewhat the humans) recognize that the BIG 12 is better acroos the board and tunred into the so-called “meat grinder” that everyone called the SEC. The Big 12 teams are generally better across the board this year and anyone can lose/win at any time. That is NOT the case in the SEC. Only LSU, Bama, and Georgia hold that kind of power. I would put any of our middle of the road teams against the same in the SEC this year. To me, it is obvious that we are the better conference as a whole this year, even if not by much.
by STLaw on Dec 4, 2011 11:30 AM CST reply actions
Well, Bama had to sit out this week and not play since they didn’t make their own conference championship. So we don’t get to see if they could take out the other conference contender Georgia either. We can “assume” anything because we all assumed VT was going to get shellacked by Clemson too right? Or that Seattle was going to beat NO last year in the first round or that GB was going to hammer Pittsburgh. In football, anything can happen.
by kemit on Dec 4, 2011 11:34 AM CST reply actions
STLaw I totally agree, according to the Adjustedstats.com rankings, this LSU team is one of the top teams of all time, ranked about the 2005 Texas team.
by redfoot on Dec 4, 2011 11:35 AM CST reply actions
There is precedent for voters ejecting the likely No. 2 — LSU benefited over Georgia in ’07, IIRC. Georgia did not play in the SECCG.
Oklahoma State did what it had to do… pound the Sooners like LSU and Alabama pounded Arkansas. It’s going to make people think. And if Alabama does make it, I’ll have less interest in the game.
by Bob in Houston on Dec 4, 2011 11:35 AM CST reply actions
So Okie State is 32 behind Bama in the Coaches Poll.
What do they need in the Harris to jump Bama, or at least what’s the maximum they would need?
by redfoot on Dec 4, 2011 11:58 AM CST reply actions
The craziest thing about all this, IMO, is the amount of power one voter potentially has. What if some big-money booster shows up at a voter’s door and says, “I’ll give you $50,000 to put Okie St. 15th in the poll”.
Obviously, the above pollster would be outed and his life would be hell going forward; however, the basic premise of fairness does still remain. Do you think anyone in the Deep South is going to vote Bama lower than #2?
by Ty on Dec 4, 2011 12:10 PM CST reply actions
redfoot, Andy Staples supposedly has an e-mail confirming Wolfe went pro-Bama. If that’s true, OSU needs an outright #2 ranking (by 7pts) in Harris. Sounds pretty unlikely to me.
by SynTex on Dec 4, 2011 12:19 PM CST reply actions
Thanks Syn.
You got me hooked with your stuff on the Texas v. Cal debate for the Rose Bowl, been around ever since.
by redfoot on Dec 4, 2011 12:24 PM CST reply actions
If I were LSU I’d be pissed if I had to face Alabama again. Can you imagine if Bama squeaks past LSU and wins the national title?
If the rematch does happen, I hope Bama wins on some disputed call, and LSU clearly outplays Bama.
by Fritz on Dec 4, 2011 12:26 PM CST reply actions
The way the Pokes played last night, I would be at peace with Bama being left out.
But if it falls the other way, then you all need to wash the sand out of your vaginas and get on with it.
The BCS never promised to match the two teams liable to provide “entertainment.” It is a flawed formula, but one agreed upon before the beginning of the season. Everyone knew the rules (even if five of the six computers are black boxes.)
And amazingly enough, Ty here is making the allegation that some Alabama booster would bribe a pollster — as though the Tide had its own T. Boone Pickens or something.
Seriously, the system sucks. But if you are considering the merits of lobbying for OSU because of some unspoken rule about conference championships, OR because you think the game will be “less boring,” then you are simply not a fan of college football. You are a fan of touchdowns. You are a fan of flashy offense. But not a fan of college football.
I’ll probably be in baggage claim at Hobby tonight when all is revealed, off to pack now.
Root for OSU all you want, I expect you to. And root for them to be in if you really think they are better than Alabama this year. There’s even evidence that points to that.
But for the love of all that’s holy, stop whining like little bitches. I hang out here and read because you guys are passionate and smart about football. I hope I can write off this thread as an exception.
by Vulcan on Dec 4, 2011 12:47 PM CST reply actions
The best scenario for those who still want some sort of playoff system would be for LSU to kick Bama’s ass in a rematch. It would further besmirch an already fucked up system.
Of course, I’d love to see OSU in the game for the Big 12’s sake, but I believe LSU is going to win it either way.
by Jake Lonergan on Dec 4, 2011 12:49 PM CST reply actions
What would be supremely frustrating about OSU being left out is that we really don’t know what would happen if they played LSU. Maybe Les Miles’ crew would destroy them but it’s hard to be very confident when they don’t play each other or even the same teams.
It may turn out that Alabama gave LSU it’s greatest test, but we can’t know if they just play again.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 12:55 PM CST reply actions
Hey Vulcan – that sound is your vagina flapping in the Santa Anna’s. Get off your horse and shut your legs.
BC Denizens – carry on
by Vulcan's a Douche on Dec 4, 2011 12:57 PM CST reply actions
If Okie St. doesn’t get in, and all signs point to they have no real hope, then maybe an Alabama win in the championship game wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen. Would there finally be enough outrage over a “champion” that didn’t even win its conference to begin a serious look at a playoff?
Now that I think about it, no…no, it wouldn’t.
College football is the only major sport in the world that is basically a series of exhibition games resulting in some spirited rhetoric over which squad was truly the best in any given year.
Verne Lundquist wears a houndstooth banana hammock.
by Dark Matter on Dec 4, 2011 12:59 PM CST reply actions
Oh boy, an anonymous flame post. I am so impressed.
Go back and read what I wrote. Take it to heart if it applies to you. Ignore it if not.
But it probably got under your skin a little, because it made you pause to recognize that just maybe you weren’t the football fan you thought you were.
by Vulcan on Dec 4, 2011 1:00 PM CST reply actions
I don’t like rooting for chaos because I prefer to be entertained by the best football possible and I would rather that teams that work really hard don’t get screwed over by stupidity en route to a better system. It’s not likely that would change anything anyways.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 1:01 PM CST reply actions
I hate the coach’s poll. Our system is a joke.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 1:03 PM CST reply actions
^^
If a rematch happens, to the extent that I care (not much), I’ll be rooting for Bama to win a close game. That’s the result that best shows just how messed up the system is.
by tokamak on Dec 4, 2011 1:06 PM CST reply actions
I’m rooting for LSU to curbstomp the Tide in round 2 so that the stupidity will be evident.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 1:08 PM CST reply actions
Round Robin, while good for Big 12 fans, doesn’t seem to have helped us in the BCS equations which illustrates how stupid the process is.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 1:10 PM CST reply actions
Two things.
1. OSU had control of their own destiny, and forgot to bring it with them when they went to Ames. With that game won, this conversation doesn’t exist. Fuck OSU, they’ve done it to themselves.
2. The BCS is a farce. The entire major college football “system” is… but that’s okay, because it’s only Entertainment, and we’re being entertained. You ARE entertained, aren’t you? Unfortunately, farces are supposed to be funny, too. The BCS is like Jerry Lewis – acting supremely stupid is only funny up to a point, and the BCS is long past that point. Fuck the BCS, may it have the rematch and may the rematch fall flat, ending with an egregiously bad call by refs and/or replay refs.
Please, continue. Someone pass the chips, and I’d take another Big Chief Winter Wheat, ’kay?
by Tex Long on Dec 4, 2011 1:11 PM CST reply actions
Brad Edwards stirring pot on twitter saying “if Wolfe rumors are false….”
This Wolfe thing is a real wildcard. Best I can tell, Andy Staples (SI) claimed to have the Wolfe poll in his in-box claiming Bama #2. That kills OSU’s chances for all intents and purposes.
However, if Wolfe is not really confirmed yet, we still have a ballgame.
Something tells me the Wolfe rumor is not false, though. These computer guys need to be kept on a tighter leash.
by SynTex on Dec 4, 2011 1:18 PM CST reply actions
Losing at Ames in OT, while certainly avoidable, shouldn’t trip up national championships in and of itself. I know OSU fans are saying that their team was deflated by the news of the plane wreck, which I have trouble believing.
To me it’s irrelevant, if you play 12 solid-to-good teams it’s really hard to win them all. The expectation of perfection encourages every non-SEC team to schedule crap games and discourages Round-Robin scheduling which provides far more entertainment.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 1:19 PM CST reply actions
One thing:
Bama had control of their own destiny and forgot to bring it with them when they wet the bed at home vs LSU. With that game won, this conversation doesn’t exist. Fuck Bama, they’ve done it to themselves.
by Eskimohorn on Dec 4, 2011 1:24 PM CST reply actions
Bama had control of their own destiny and forgot to bring it with them when they wet the bed at home vs LSU. With that game won, this conversation doesn’t exist. Fuck Bama, they’ve done it to themselves.
Yeah? You think looking at a ‘Bama-LSU rematch is different than looking at an LSU-’Bama rematch? How’s that work?
by Tex Long on Dec 4, 2011 1:30 PM CST reply actions
If OSU misses out, then we do have this reality to deal with:
The lack of the championship game likely cost OSU necessary points in this process.
Funny, I remember hearing constantly that this would never occur and that the lack of that extra game would always be a plus. Beating K-State a second time would have put this thing over the top for sure.
Forget all the SEC/B12 stuff for a second. OSU does not match up with LSU at all, on either side of the ball. OSU whipped Oklahoma on the line of scrimmage last night, and that will reverse in the LSU game. The only advantage OSU will have is the 30 days of “best ever?” media that LSU will deal with, but this LSU team seems immune to that sort of nonsense.
Weeden will have to move in that game, and when he moves, that offense does not work. Simple as that.
by G.O.F. on Dec 4, 2011 1:41 PM CST reply actions
Like you said, not that it matters, but I think the plane crash must have had a bigger effect than people are giving it credit for. It seems like the perfect storm for a bunch of young guys that, I assume, took a plane up there and were going to ride one back. You know the whole “what if that was us” thing must have been on some of their minds. I’m sure worried parents were calling up there and talking to some players, with the realization that stuff like that can happen to anyone. Whether you’re close to the basketball team or not, that shit has to get inside your head. It’s got to be tough for every guy on the team to keep their focus up, especially for Iowa State, in the wake of news like that.
by txgeotech on Dec 4, 2011 1:43 PM CST reply actions
I can’t stand any team in the entire player-paying, cheating, academically-fraudulent SEC, but Pickens trying to throw his weight around makes me puke. For a guy who undoubtedly lied, cheated and stole his way to great fortune, he sure does cry and whine alot. Moreover, the ‘we were upset by the plane crash when we got beat by ISU’ excuse is really really weak. No one on the football team knows or cares who the women’s basketball coach and assistant coach are. Man up and admit you got beat by a mediocre team. Bama at least lost to the consensus No. 1. Quit bitching.
by RS on Dec 4, 2011 1:52 PM CST reply actions
For a guy who undoubtedly lied, cheated and stole his way to great fortune, he sure does cry and whine alot.
What makes you think he didn’t lie, cheat, steal and WHINE his way to great fortune? What makes you think he’s only whiing now, and not continuing to lie, cheat and steal, too?
by Tex Long on Dec 4, 2011 2:06 PM CST reply actions
Wow RS calling out a billionaire. How is that working out for you?
by Mysterious Package on Dec 4, 2011 2:09 PM CST reply actions
G.O.F.: OSU’s OL stymied the pass rush of OU and UT. LSU doesn’t have a better pass-rush than those teams.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 2:12 PM CST reply actions
Think this blog is for people to vent their opinions, weigh arguments and not be insulted for it. Don’t like it, shut your vagina. And because there isn’t a playoff, both sides are right. Currently, I’m one of the masses that hasn’t reached sports enlightenment Mr. Vulcan Guru.
by kemit on Dec 4, 2011 2:43 PM CST reply actions
OSU’s OL stymied the pass rush of OU and UT. LSU doesn’t have a better pass-rush than those teams.
I disagree Nickel — LSU has the deepest DL in the country – they will use as many as 10 in a game, they are built for the kind of team OSU is — not particularly huge, but they are all quick as cats — and their linebackers are also based on speed. Their DB’s are damn good cover guys and they would leave them on an island and turn that front 7 loose on Weeden.
This is the best defense I have seen in a long time. They made Oregon look pedestrian, and they would do the same to the Cowboys.
by srr50 on Dec 4, 2011 2:44 PM CST reply actions
Things have gone quiet.
I will say this… if Wolfe does indeed end up having Bama #2, there should be an inquiry into how Andy Staples got that info leaked to him.
by SynTex on Dec 4, 2011 3:06 PM CST reply actions
It’s not like a couple of coaches had aneurisms or something. One second they were healthy, going about their business on behalf of the OSU athletic department, and the next second they were dead on the job because of a plane failure. I don’t think it’s about the death of the coaches (I agree, I doubt they were that close to the football team), I think it’s about the mindfuck that can happen to young people when accidents like that occur at their school. And now they’re going to get fucked by the BCS because on the day that happened, they played like football wasn’t the most important thing in the world. Yeah, they should have showed up ready to play, but this isn’t the NFL and I think they deserve a pass.
by txgeotech on Dec 4, 2011 3:09 PM CST reply actions
Texas and OU have tons of pass-rushers and they threw them at Weeden. It’s hard to pressure them because their OL and scheme are designed to punish you if you over-do it. You can’t just play their receivers on islands and throw blitzers at their 4-wide formations.
It’s a better offense than what Oregon fields this year and they could give LSU some trouble. How well does bama play them in round 2 in New Orleans with Jefferson playing the whole game?
SynTex: what are we looking for in the Harris poll to see OSU make it?
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 3:12 PM CST reply actions
I’d like to see OSU-LSU myself, but I agree with those who think that the Fightin T Boonies are not it the same league with the Bayou Grass Eaters. There’s no way Weeden has any more success than Murray did yesterday, and the Cowboy D hasn’t been a world beater, although they did a fantastic job yesterday against Boomer. If the Pokes do make the NC game, the Tigers will batter Weeden so much that they could be brought up on elder abuse charges. How old is he, 60?
Bama-LSU are like two mirror images fighting each other to a bloody stalemate. The one big differences are that LSU has a far more athletic QB than the Tide and a better kicking game. All the Tigers need to do is focus on containing Richardson and put a little pressure on McCarron, and Bama will be lucky to score the 6 points they did in the first game.
by goodonyaa on Dec 4, 2011 3:19 PM CST reply actions
Looks like OSU’s only hope began with the computers and getting five of the six to provide them number two votes. From that advantage they could build a no rematch voter coalition. Strangely enough, the 25% number for human voters that was shown on television could work.
That’s right. If 15 of the 59 coaches and 29 of the 115 Harris voters decided to vote OSU number two then OSU could be facing LSU for the MNC.
But as syn stated, there are two big ifs. OSU needed five of six computers. And they needed third place votes from the Alabama voters. That is the sneaky way to corrupt the system. The coaches poll numbers indicate that OSU received 17 seconds, 35 thirds, and 7 fourths. Of course those numbers don’t exclude other combinations, but they do work and fit an Alabama split of 42 seconds and 17 thirds.
Looks like no candy and nuts for the ifs and buts of the Cowboy’s dreams.
What will T. Boone do now?
by goldenbohls on Dec 4, 2011 3:24 PM CST reply actions
Weeden is a far better passer than anyone LSU has seen this year. The OSU defense has been underrated all year. They don’t give up big plays and they are phenomenal ball-hawks. They jump routes, tip passes, and strip runners. Bill Young has the Cover-2 philosophy down to a science and the personnel they have for it isn’t bad at all.
This talk about LSU battering Weeden to a pulp…OU has Frank Alexander, Ronnel Lewis, Corey Nelson, and a ton of blitz packages. UT has Okafor, Jeffcoat, Acho and a million more blitzes. It’s not like OSU’s pass protection is untested.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 3:24 PM CST reply actions
NR -
We disagree. I think LSU’s is significantly better, if for no other reason than the fact they can do so much more on the back end to compensate for bringing extra guys from here/there/everywhere. Plus, as srr50 notes, they have ridiculous depth there.
And honestly, OU was awful last night. They just quit. It was fun to watch, but I take nothing from it as far as OSU’s ability to compete with a defense that gives you no one to pick on.
But the real problem will be OSU’s defense. They give up 4.34 a carry to a team that averages 5. Some writer said it on twitter earlier today – LSU should run it every down. No passes at all.
And honestly, I would love to see it. I’m sick of flag football. If Mack has nothing else right at this point, he gets it on that front. Most national champions start with a power running game and a defense that stops the run. Florida State/VaTech and USC/Texas were shoot-outs; the other 11 were won on the ground.
by G.O.F. on Dec 4, 2011 3:27 PM CST reply actions
I’m confident that whatever Bama needs from “the system” to play in the title game, it will get.
by Blueshorn on Dec 4, 2011 3:33 PM CST reply actions
G.O.F.
Texas had their safeties jump and attack underneath routes and left Diggs and Byndom on islands down the sideline. A lot. What more can you do on the back end than that? I understand that LSU has better defensive players than Texas but it’s not by that wide a margin.
LSU can try and run the ball on OSU every play, it’s hardly a guarantee. They play Cover-2 or Quarters, strip the ball and make you drive the length of the field while you are trying to keep up with their offense. I’m sure that’s what LSU would attempt but to say OSU has poor run defense isn’t quite accurate.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 3:42 PM CST reply actions
NR – It’s more accurate than saying they can stop LSU.
Does OSU have a chance? Absolutely. But K-State’s offense gave them fits, and K-State’s offense does not have nearly the same type of athletes at RB or WR. LSU can give them those looks plus a whole lot more.
The Texas safeties aren’t even close to LSU’s. It’s just not a comparison. That alone makes a huge difference. Add in the fact their flexibility/depth at corner for nickel packages or sliding Honey Badger around, and you have something completely different in the secondary than Texas. Texas has kids who will play in the NFL, but as a functioning unit, LSU’s secondary simply operates on a different level. I think the entire unit could translate to the NFL right now – they are that good physically and schematically, if not experience and physical maturity. Yes, they would get torched by the Brady’s of the world – but Weeden ain’t Brady. He’s not even Bradford.
I appreciate what you’re saying. I’m not saying your points have no merit.
by G.O.F. on Dec 4, 2011 4:07 PM CST reply actions
OSU vs. Bama w/winner playing LSU
….in a perfect world.
We’ll be in this conversation like back in the day soon as we find a QB.
….whenever that is.
by palmettohorn on Dec 4, 2011 4:15 PM CST reply actions
LSU made Oregon pedestrian. The Ducks average 515 yards per game and had 160 at the end of 3 quarters of the game with the Bengal Tigers — and the game was effectively over.
LSU overwhelms you with talented depth and as GOF points out Wheeden hasn’t seen anything like the DB’s he would see against LSU.
BTW I am fine if this match up happens and I don’t really care to see a rematch.
by srr50 on Dec 4, 2011 4:15 PM CST reply actions
G.O.F. do you mean to say that a future NFLer is better than Gideon? ;)
by redfoot on Dec 4, 2011 4:18 PM CST reply actions
palmetto – you must be playing a different game. I’m not even going to explain to you why your post is irrelevant.
by UT07 on Dec 4, 2011 4:20 PM CST reply actions
Not sure if Palmetto is joking, or not aware or what’s been going on?
by redfoot on Dec 4, 2011 4:22 PM CST reply actions
UT07,
I"m sure you’re right.
Didn’t mean it as curt as it seemed. Just frustrated at all the SEC worship and OSU not getting a fair a shake as Bama.
I hope i’m wrong and computers still work out to give OSU a shot.
Gracias.
by palmettohorn on Dec 4, 2011 4:25 PM CST reply actions
Well, good point about the LSU safeties. I don’t think they are much better at us underneath in nickel. Mathieu is a little better than Vaccaro, Claiborne is a little better than Byndom, I don’t know who their guy is who comes in in nickel and would be compared with Diggs.
Brandon Taylor is worlds better than Gideon, I bet Phillips is not too far behind their other safety.
We are better at linebacker than LSU, better at defensive end, and behind at tackle.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 4:25 PM CST reply actions
palmetto: The AP poll doesn’t factor into the BCS formula.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 4:28 PM CST reply actions
You suck at life. ‘Bama had their shot, at home, and they lost. To allow them a rematch is ridiculous. The only reason they’re ranked above OSU at the end of the season is because they were ranked above OSU at the beginning of the season. So basically, a preseason poll when no games had been played determines who our champion is. Fucking lunacy.
Idiots like you defend the abortion that is the CFB post season by saying “The regular season has more meaning than any other sport.” If ’Bama gets a rematch, then the entire regular season is a fucking farce and there is no point at all having a BCS.
by Echo Base on Dec 4, 2011 4:29 PM CST reply actions
’Whats the word on Mack and UT addressing all the talk about him leaving? Someone told me there would be a presser about it?
by bHero on Dec 4, 2011 4:32 PM CST reply actions
Nickel,
I do realize that.
Thing that set me off was the coaches poll.
Apologies for detracting from the thread.
I’ll hang up and listen.
by palmettohorn on Dec 4, 2011 4:32 PM CST reply actions
Would like to see where OSU’s 8 number 4 ranking votes come from. Wouldnt be shocked if it’s from the southeast region.
by Mysterious Package on Dec 4, 2011 4:37 PM CST reply actions
I’m really curious to see how closely we can track the coaching fraternities’ by the voting, also. Does Gundy have any friends in the poll? Les Miles?
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 4:39 PM CST reply actions
Stoopsie voted for OSU. Payback for Gundy’s vote in 2008.
by Blueshorn on Dec 4, 2011 5:05 PM CST reply actions
Even if OSU plays LSU, I think LSU wins no matter what. Yes, OSU is deadly on offense but no they haven’t faced a secondary as deep as LSU’s. OSU having to rely more on their run is a 50/50 whether it will work. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn’t. I think LSU would beat them but not by a ton like Oregon. Why? Well, LSU hasn’t faced some serious ball hawks like OSU has somehow managed to put out there this year. Holy cow, where in the heck are all the turnovers coming from? OSU could have a shot simply because of their great ability to create and get turnovers.
Bama just sucks at life. Stop their run (ie what LSU did) and they don’t do much. Not a single damn TD in that game. Bama is good on defense but very very one dimensional on offense against any good defense. Even with the abortion of a game our D played yesterday, I think even our defense holds Bama at 21 or less points. I’m sorry but Bama is only #2 because of a love fest and nothing more. They haven’t proven squat…actually they have gotten worse if you look at their wins post-LSU.
by STLaw on Dec 4, 2011 5:23 PM CST reply actions
Jerry Palm reporting a done deal – Bama in for the rematch of the century.
Get your no-doz.
by goldenbohls on Dec 4, 2011 5:24 PM CST reply actions
I would bet on LSU vs. anyone but I don’t buy that OSU would get blown away or doesn’t have a chance. I think bama could have a shot if they gave it to Richardson more, he had less than 30 touches last time.
This year’s LSU team is a phenomenal example of how an elite program can build contenders every season without needing the stars to align with QB play. They protect the ball on offense, get it to their playmakers, and can run when they need to. They score points on defense and special teams and every unit contributes to the goal of getting possession of the ball and putting it in the end zone.
It’s a lot like our 2009 bunch only with better ball security on offense. This is the model for what we should try and accomplish in 2012 and 2013.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 5:28 PM CST reply actions
OSU has FIVE wins over teams ranked in the current BCS top 25. Bama has TWO.
OSU had their one loss ON THE ROAD in 2OT, with the plane crash tragedy occurring that day as well. Bama had their one loss AT HOME.
Big 12 is actually a stronger conference top to bottom this year than the “mighty SEC” and had a better cumulative non-con record.
OSU won its conference title. Bama did NOT win its conference, or even its division!
When laid out like that I don’t know how ANYONE, except maybe your typically crooked politician/coach/SID from the deep south, could vote Bama #2 and allow them to play for the national title instead of oSu.
by Orange90 on Dec 4, 2011 5:29 PM CST reply actions
“Jerry Palm reporting a done deal – Bama in for the rematch of the century.
Get your no-doz.”
As I posted once before, when they said it was the game of the century, I didn’t realize they meant 19th century.
by Texoz on Dec 4, 2011 5:34 PM CST reply actions
orange90: People that have watched Alabama play and know the players on the team think that they pass the eye test better than OSU, whom they probably haven’t watched as much.
Then there’s the fact that bama almost took down LSU and LSU has a phenomenal record.
My quip with bama is that they had their chance at home, the Big 12 champion should get a shot. They are clearly a dominant team though and would bury us and most of our league with ease. OSU has a better resume but I think most people believe that bama would have done pretty well in the Big 12.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 5:39 PM CST reply actions
Bama and LSU have already played each other, LSU won. Give somebody else from another conference a chance to beat LSU.
NCAA div 1 football, especially the SEC, is grossly corrupt. SEC school Auburn bought themselves an MNC last year. Putting two SEC teams in the MNC game stinks. It is way past time for a bona fide playoff system with at least 8 participants and way past time for the NCAA to clean up college football.
by Kafka on Dec 4, 2011 5:40 PM CST reply actions
Fuck Terrance Newman and fuck Jason Garrett!
by Mysterious Package on Dec 4, 2011 6:19 PM CST reply actions
Seeing lots of tweets from Iowa sportswriters that it’s OU v. Iowa in the Insight. Guess that means UT v. Cal in the Holiday is very likely.
And how did OU fall to the Insight, you ask? Because apparently the Big 12 only got 1 team into the BCS (OSU). Despite projections that the Sugar would take K-State as an at-large, apparently they are taking Virginia Tech instead. Which puts K-State in the Cotton and Baylor in the Alamo.
Given that the Big 12 was the highest rated conference all year (per Sagarin and many others), it’s pretty crazy to think that the ACC is getting 2 teams in the BCS (Clemson and VTech) and the Big 12’s only getting 1.
by gilberto verde on Dec 4, 2011 6:33 PM CST reply actions
It is way past time for a bona fide playoff system with at least 8 participants and way past time for the NCAA to clean up college football.
The NCAA is scared to death that if they actually try to do something the BCS will break away.
It has been reported that Va. Tech will get the Sugar Bowl bid instead of Kansas State. So that means that the ACC will have two BCS teams. Amazing.
We can rant and rave about a playoff, but the BCS (and ESPN) aren’t ready for it. As long as the Bowl system produces two outcomes it will be hard to change. Those two outcomes are: A) produce bowl matchups that ESPN finds attractive and B) produce two teams who have a chance of selling tickets to the game.
Maybe the All-SEC Championship game will produce a grease fire of a problem for the powers-that-be, but I doubt it.
by srr50 on Dec 4, 2011 6:35 PM CST reply actions
Man. I would take several Big 12 teams to stomp either Virginia Tech or Clemson. Hope that’s not true.
On our end, I like us to whoop Cal if we play them. Iowa would be more difficult. All that really matters is the bowl practice and trying to get Ash back on track and our RB’s and Shipley healthy so we can have some momentum and confidence heading into spring ball.
How our young safeties and linebackers develop over bowl practices is really big too.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 6:35 PM CST reply actions
Saban’s wife in Austin looking at houses! Fact!
by starting to smell on Dec 4, 2011 6:42 PM CST reply actions
Of course she is, obviously on the eve of another national championship Saban is looking to move to Austin…you moron.
by Nickel Rover on Dec 4, 2011 6:45 PM CST reply actions
Was lukewarm at best on oSu in BCS title game till witnessing fear of Sooner demon exorcism. oSu has just as much a chance as pedestrian Bama and could beat Harvey Updyke’s adopted Alma Mater if’n they kept Weeden even semi-clean and and made Bama utilize the forward pass.
Oh well. Woulda’ been fun to see.
by palmettohorn on Dec 4, 2011 6:46 PM CST reply actions
(Q) "Whats the word on Mack and UT addressing all the talk about him leaving? Someone told me “here would be a presser about it?”
(A) Texas AD: Mack Brown staying put
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7316541/texas-athletic-director-deloss-dodds-says-mack-brown-remain-coach
by PoofyBevo on Dec 4, 2011 7:14 PM CST reply actions
Would it be as big a surprise to DeLoss to have Mack fired tomoroow as it was the Dollar Bill that next day?
by Tex Long on Dec 4, 2011 7:48 PM CST reply actions
Would it be as big a surprise to DeLoss to have Mack fired tomoroow as it was the Dollar Bill that next day?
Considering that we don’t run our program as clusterfuck of Administration, Athletics Department and Wealthy Alumni it would be an even bigger surprise.
by srr50 on Dec 4, 2011 7:52 PM CST reply actions
Now everyone can either spend quality time with family, schedule a non-bowl watching party, or go to bed early on January 9, 2012.
The ratings should be hilarious.
by Saul on Dec 4, 2011 8:22 PM CST reply actions
It hardly matters that it’s all SEC. I’m convinced that, on a neutral field, LSU will handle Alabama much more thoroughly than they did in Tuscaloosa. LSU is that good. They’d beat whomever.
OSU had their chance. FOCUS, regardless of circumstances.
by lurkerinthedark on Dec 4, 2011 9:05 PM CST reply actions
“This talk about LSU battering Weeden to a pulp…OU has Frank Alexander, Ronnel Lewis, Corey Nelson, and a ton of blitz packages. UT has Okafor, Jeffcoat, Acho and a million more blitzes. It’s not like OSU’s pass protection is untested.”
Frank Alexander was playing hurt, Travis Lewis’s foot got worse each week because he never let it heal, and Ronnell Lewis was watching the game from the sidelines. Don’t kid yourself, Nickel Rover. The OU front 7 that OSU got to face was a far cry from the unit UT had to face. OSU’s pass protection really is untested.
by NateHeupel on Dec 4, 2011 9:12 PM CST reply actions
It appears to me that in previous seasons, the strength of schedule argument was used by the SEC to get teams into the BCS MNC game (see 2 loss team that was included in, and then won, the MNC). This time around, the powers that be (ie ESPN) decided that no longer should the team with the tougher schedule (OSU) be given the benefit of the doubt and rewarded. Instead, they opted to reward the team with the better loss. It appears another instance of changing the unwritten rules to reward the SEC.
by Mizzou tiger on Dec 4, 2011 9:27 PM CST reply actions
@echo base.
Your reading comprehension skills are crap.
I said I had no problem either way it went, you had two teams with deserving arguments.
NONE of those arguments are to factor in emotional shit like “it’s not fair, they had their chance” or “that game is going to be boring” or “I’d rather watch someone else.”
There’s an eyeball test involved. One that tells you that MAYBE Florida wasn’t going to lose four consecutive games until Bama knocks Brantley out, for starters. One that tells you that statistically, not counting the garbage time, LSU and Bama have stood head and shoulders (and in LSU’s case, sternums) above everyone else.
I’m open to sound arguments. I’m open to suggestions. In a perfect world, there would be a four team playoff, with LSU vs Stanford and the Pokes vs Bama. And that’s exactly what Mike Slive proposed in 2008. Your buddy Dan Beebe shot it down.
As I said, I was at peace either way, because getting in the game has the side effect of EVERYONE rooting against Alabama for the rest of my life. Anything other than a three-TD victory for the Tide will be seen as at best a Split title or at worst, illegitimate.
Haters are going to hate. Hate the BCS.
by Vulcan on Dec 4, 2011 11:17 PM CST reply actions
Your buddy Dan Beebe shot it down.
I don’t know about Beebe… don’t really care. Jim Delany doesn’t want it. He has a lot more influence.
As usual, srr is centered. If you don’t like the BCS, don’t watch the games. FWIW, I am considering not watching the BCSCG. I’m willing to bet right now that they get a lower rating this time than they did last time.
by Bob in Houston on Dec 5, 2011 7:32 AM CST reply actions

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