Texas High School Football Update

The high school pages are now updated at AdjustedStats.com, including the EWP Ratings, Power Ratings, matchup analyzer, and team and district pages. As always, many thanks to Jerry at PigskinPrep.com for his fine work collecting scores data across the state.

Class 5A

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Division I

Southlake Carroll appears to be peaking at the right time and took home the Region I championship 31-14 over Arlington Martin. Carroll will now face Region II champ Dallas Skyline, who barely survived The Woodlands 35-31 with two fourth quarter touchdowns for that region's title. The probability forecast says that this semifinal winner will be the heavy favorite in the state title game a week later.

Fort Bend Hightower won the Region III title 35-14 over defending state champ Pearland in an impressive showing. The other half of their state semifinal will be against Region IV champ San Antonio Madison, who eliminated Harlingen by a 42-27 final score.

Division II

La Porte was unable to follow up on their huge upset from the week before and fell 34-6 to Port Arthur Memorial in the Region III title game. Memorial will now face Region IV champion Cibolo Steele in the state semifinal after Steele had a surprisingly easy 35-10 win over San Antonio Reagan.

The other semifinal matches Region I champ Mansfield Timberview, 29-25 winners over Abilene Cooper against Region II winner Spring DeKaney.

This Division II bracket is considerably more wide open than Division I with all four remaining teams having a decent chance at the title.

Class 4A

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Division I

Lake Travis won a close battle over Cedar Park for the second time this year to take the Region IV championship, this one by a final of 14-9. The Cavaliers now advance to take on Pearland Dawson in the state semifinal after Dawson edged Angleton 27-23 in the Region III final.

In the other half of the bracket, Tyler easily defeated Sherman 45-21 and will now face Waco Midway, 54-34 winners over Wichita Falls Rider, in the state semis.

Division II

Aledo crushed Stephenville 33-0 despite Johnathan Gray's ejection for two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties to take the Region I title easily. Gray's ejection was, eh, questionable. Oh well. They will now take on Corsicana in a potentially high-scoring semifinal matchup after Corsicana handled Kilgore 42-21 for the Region II title.

Manvel and Calallen will meet in the other semifinal after Manvel was able to defeat La Marque 38-35 for the Region III championship and Calallen had a surprisingly easy time in a 45-15 win over Kerrville Tivy for the Region IV title.

Class 3A

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Division I

Tyler Chapel Hill and Alvarado will meet in the highly anticipated championship game that was predicted from the outset after Chapel Hill survived West Columbia 21-16 Alvarado breezed past a tough Henderson squad 34-13 in the semfinals.

Division II

Heavy favorite Gilmer was upset this week by new favorite Argyle, who are heavy favorites over Monahans in one semifinal. In the other, Coldspring-Oakhurst will take on a Wimberley squad that vanquished the hated Devine Warhorses in the Region IV final. The championship game should be a good matchup here as Argyle's status as overall favorite is mainly due to their more winnable semifinal.

Class 2A

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Division I

Three weeks, three overall favorites down in 2A Division I. This time it was Crockett falling to an upstart Tatum group that advanced to meet Hempstead in one semifinal. Melissa and Muleshoe will face each other in the other semifinal and both games should be competitive.

Division II

Unlike Division I, the two main favorites here are still going strong as Refugio and Corsicana Mildred both won handily again this week. Refugio's opponent in their semifinal is a peaking Lexington squad while Mildred will battle Cisco for the other championship game berth.

Class A

Probability Forecast Table

Division I

Mason cruised past Shiner and now take on Garrison in one semifinal while Mart and Stamford meet in the other.

Division II

Tenaha is now a 1-to-2 favorite to win this bracket after Windthorst was upset by Munday. Tenaha is a huge favorite over Burton in one semifinal while Munday should defeat Wellington in the other.

TAPPS

Division I Champion: Fort Worth Nolan Catholic
Division II Champion: Midland Christian
Division III Champion: Bullard Brook Hill
Division IV Champion: Hallettsville Sacred Heart

Congratulations to the TAPPS champions as all the favorites took home the titles.

Six-Man

Updated Probability Forecast Table

Borden County had a close call but was able to defeat Turkey Valley 61-56 in one semifinal after surviving their brutal region. They now take on Throckmorton for the state title as considerable favorites.

In Division II, Richland Springs is favored over Motley County but not by as much as previously thought after Motley County scored a surprisingly easy blowout win 84-36 over Sterling City in their semifinal.

Congratulations to Abilene Christian on winning TAPPS 6-Man Division I and Fredericksburg Heritage Christian on winning TAPPS 6-Man Division II.

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