Is Harsin Really An Improvement?

Healthy Berg, MBrown, Ship & Foz; or any three of them and we go 9-3, winning against KSU and Mizzou. Pretty hard to argue against that.

*Whittaker

With all of your charts, stats & graphs you’re asking the wrong question. The real question is: “Is Mack capable of turning this thing around?”

Lets stop focusing on the symptoms and address the disease.

Be sure to do this again next year and let’s see where we’re at.

Mark Twain said “Figures often beguile me”….me too.

So, viewing the Title of this blog, I was prepared to read a difficult, but elegant, statistical analysis of why we aren’t worth a shit still on offense and accept such in deference to Brick’s incisive and unintelligible (to me) lucubration no doubt composed between tasks at his job with the Swiss Patent Office.

Imagine my surprise when he actually offered a proof of what I, and I think most all of us here, felt when observing our offense this season….we were/are better than last year, much better as the season progressed in fact..and there were actually times I thought we just might win 9 games…alas, the moving finger wrote and moved on with key injuries to our core as Brick points out, and we were screwed…the recruiting/evaluation/development chickens hatched the last several years on the offense side of the Horns ranch came home to roost, just as they did last year…

Thanks Brick for validating what I THOUGHT I saw….I hope we get a chance to see the results of this beginning with Harsin and Applewhite really in charge…

got to say i want to drink the koolaid. I think the offense will be better with more experience next year, but it seems like your % changes would be within a normal variance

With a total change in philosophy thrown in to the mix, I think even a modest improvement is real improvement. We have seen the future, at least glimpses of it. Does anyone seriously doubt that next year’s Harsin offense will be considerably better than this year’s version?
I don’t need a fancy statistical analysis to tell me what I saw:
With even average quarterback play and better breaks on the injuries to running backs (particularly Fozzy) and Shipley, this team would have put up 9 wins before the bowl and had a chance at 10 wins. The offense should/would have been the perfect complement to the defense.
If the offense had not been derailed by injury (Gilbert included), the statistical result would have looked a lot better.
Timmy (Timmah!) probably wouldn’t win the Boston marathon, but if you just look at his time, it does not tell the whole story. Our running back corps was reduced to a corps of Timmahs, and unlike Timmy, they will get better, and Super Timmah is coming.

Nice work up, I enjoyed it. The only problem I see is that no statistical analysis or comparison is fair to Harsin in that GD got to play with the offense he chose. Harsin got to play with the offense he was given (a point which you made well)

Given that, and the rash of injuries at the most crucial spots, the fact that Harsin was able to:

1. Start a running game with a team that had not run the ball effectively in years;
2. Increase time of possession to give the defense a break (don’t think even our salty D would have been as good if the O did not keep them off the field as much as they did, might be a wash with the number of times they gave up the ball in our territory, however);
3. Generate any offense between two qb’s that had one combined throw in a college football game;
4. Generate an offense with a scheme that had leaned on the use of TE’s, with 7 guys on the roster who could neither catch nor block (the double down on doo-doo, although Irby and Grant had their moments in the passing game, below average in blocking all year, however)

A lot of people are down on what Harsin produced this year, but with injuries and the roster that was left him, I was pleased with what looks like the rough sketch of a potent offense at some time in the future when an even average qb takes the helm.

I salute your breakdown, it was impressive and have to applaud the work. I just happen to believe that you can’t really have a fair comparison until Harsin has a chance to get some of his guys in the system and we have a season where 55% of the offense is taken from us in a span of 3 games.

Great job and Hook ’Em.

All the above and two more wins. A 40% increase. At a third of the credit, allowing for D and special teams sharing, that is a 13. 33% increase.

5 – 7 is really abysmal.

Never let facts get in the way of a juicy storyline.

(Enjoyed the post. Good stuff.)

I mean this in the least trollish way possible: we were epically bad on offense last year. Even against some bad defenses in a relatively down Big XII. shudder.

So, to me, saying that we’re 13.5% better than last year is like saying you quit your job at the Lane Bryant call center and you lost 50 pounds. That’s great. But if that’s only 13.5% of your weight, guess what . . . . YOU’RE STILL FUCKING FAT.

Just me, but I’d like to see us be 13.5% better than a competent offense before I start chugging kool-aid and getting all excited in my pants. . . .

• * *

IMO, there’s really only one question: can Harsin install a conference championship caliber offense by next year and a BCSNC caliber offense by 2013?

Based on what we saw when our running backs were healthy, I think there’s no question that he’ll be able to install a mean rushing attack next year. The question is: can he find or develop a good enough QB?

I sure hope so.

I really liked what Harsin brought in terms of scheme, expecially in terms of the much improved running game. However, I was disappointed at times with his playcalling and seeming neglect of some of the tools has scheme makes available.

In some of the late season games where we were struggling to do anything I felt like he underutilized plays designed to hit the edges. With all the injuries one area we were still healthy was with speed guys like DJ and Goodwin. One the few occasions they got the ball they’d make good yardage but then we’d run between the tackles 7 or 8 straight times between shots at the edge. I know you can’t run everything outside, but if it’s the one thing working for you then at least make them have to stop it.

Another example was my belief that we should do a lot more rollouts and waggles, especially with Ash. If you’re QBs are physically capable of doing it I see big advantages in terms of moving away from the pass rush, buying time to read the defense and allow a reciever to come open, and simplifying the field and the number of reads a young QB has to make. With the marginal OL pass blocking and lack of running weapons the last few games it was incumbent on the QB to complete some passes the last 3 or 4 games. The very few times we did this the QBs showed an ability to make plays. I was really dumbfounded we didn’t do this more. I even had one of the moderators on here excusing Harsin’s underuse of this with some reasoning to the effect that it was like running a new offense with different blocking and so forth. That’s BS. We clearly had he plays in our offense because we ran them on rare occasions, and they were often successful so we had the ability to run them. It was simply a matter of the OC not using it.

Amusingly, now I read that the coaches has suddenly recognized the value of using rollouts and waggles as they prep for the bowl game and will use them more. It’s about time. A few more of those and more edge running plays might have gotten us past Mizzou and KSU.

Harsin has had some garbage points this year too. Nothing like GD putrid offense bit the OU game comes to mind. If we are going to knock GD, and we should, you have to compare apples to apples no? I don’t think it will make a big difference but perhaps it’s a more accurate look…

Some more stats.

Ash had a 104 passer rating this year.

(Gilbert had a 111 passer rating in 2010.)

Matt Barkley’s development went from 130-140-160 (freshman-soph-junior).

LSU and Bama have 150 passer rating QBs. (helps a lot when you have a dominating team and you can run the ball).

If you take out the Mizzou and K-State games, where we didn’t have our three best running backs, (if you want to see what Ash might look like next year with a healthy running game), Ash’s passer rating increases to 121.

Also, Ash’s first two 20+ pass games came against OU and Okie State, two top offenses with top 10 adjusted pass efficiency defenses. If you also take those games out (on the theory that playing in those circumstances as a true freshman is about as bad as it will ever get), Ash’s passer rating jumps to 173.

So, if you wanna project for a more seasoned Ash with a healthy stable of running backs, can Harsin develop him into a 150 passer rating QB in 2 years (especially if we land our current commits and top target at WR)?

I sure hope so.

And if so, I think Harsin can turn this thing around. . .

He definatly gets too cute. OU shoved the gimmicks and motions where the sun doesn’t shine. At some point just line up and play ball it’s not like the defense can’t catch on by the second time around if not initially. The 5% improvement does not seem like it’s enough from the worst offense I have ever seen in 2010. I will give him another year but we were expecting more out of the offense this year. You should never buy the injury excuse, its not unique to only Texas. It happens to everyone and should be noted that harsin left B B in said garbage time.

agree with NYB
Having Ash throwing 40 yard bombs time after time in a 40mph wind was a stupid game plan. I would like to have that Mizzou game back.

Now Lets see if Harsin can Match Greg Davis good years. Apples to Apples. Harsin should be able to do that provided his recruits are up to snuff. Thats really what this is all about, recruiting.

“Harsin achieved this improvement with the football equivalent of duct tape and paperclips.”

Good read… but it’s hard for me to compare last year to this due to the duct tape, paperclips & lack of playmakers!

Mysterious Package, I was going to make the same comment, but really there was only a single garbage TD against OU, the only blowout loss. You might count the last TD against UCLA and the last two against Tech as garbage time as well.

I’d like to see the 2011 offense compared to the 1998 offense — 1st year with somebody else’s players, though clearly the cupboard was not as bare, talent-wise, when GDGD arrived as when he left.

The injuries were a bad break. I would think the improvement would have been far more dramatic with at least one of Foz, Brown, or Bergeron available for Mizzou or healthy for K-state.

As an OC, Harsin is better than GD because at least Harsin is serious about running the ball while GD pretended to try to run the ball (while sabotaging it in his typical passive aggressive way). Having said that, being better than GD is an extremely low and inadequate standard for an OC. You can be a better OC than GD and still be an ineffective OC. Harsin has been a poor QB coach so far in 2011. Maybe the Texas QBs will improve a bunch in the bowl game.

The jury is still out on Harsin. Harsin is the QB coach and the QB situation was a complete fiasco in 2011. Ash should have been red shirted and Wood should have been used as the running package QB. Wood might not have done any better than Ash but it is unlikely that he would have done worse, Ash would have gotten the red shirt year that he desperately needed, and the horns would have had reasonable depth at QB rather than going with only 2 QBs 3/4 of the season. Encouraging Wood to leave was a big mistake.

Harsin’s biggest challenge as a QB coach was to fix or at least significantly improve Gilbert’s performance. He failed completely in this area and ended up running off Gilbert, too. Once both Gilbert and Wood were gone, the horns were in deep, deep trouble at QB. Replacing Gilbert with Case as the starter turned out to be a big mistake that led to Gilbert quitting. Any manager must train and retain his workers, especially his key workers. Harsin was extremely ineffective at both training and retaining Gilbert. Those are profound problems for any manager but are particularly serious at the critical QB position.

To cut down on picks by Gilbert, there should have been much more emphasis on running (including running Gilbert) and short targets while Gilbert was still QB (rather than the focus on passing and giving Gilbert so much freedom in “picking” long targets).

It is common to overestimate the importance/invariance of a particular offensive scheme and underestimate the importance of handling people and understanding matchups (and tailoring the offense to exploit specific matchups on a play by play basis). Harsin was good at exploiting weaknesses in the opposing defense but was not good at working around the weaknesses of his own offense.

Why was the short passing game so under developed? Given that the Texas OL was mediocre and had no chance of being adequate at run and pass blocking vs a good defense (eg: OU,) why not have a short passing offense that put much less stress on the OL when it was over matched? Watching Ash and Case stand in the pocket vs OU, surveying the OU defense for downfield opportunities while the OU D was pouring through the Texas OL like water through a sieve was extraordinarily frustrating. It also guaranteed the turnovers that turned the game into a humiliating disaster. Having an offense that could at least make two or three first downs without turning the ball over before punting would have made a huge difference vs OU.

The coaching transition occurred at the start of 2011. Why were the Texas TEs still so light (all but one of the eight TEs were 230 something) nine months later when the season started? It is not believable that none of these guys could put on a few pounds of extra muscle in nine months. This had an enormous impact on the TE blocking.

There is no doubt that when Harsin was teamed with Petersen, the results were outstanding. The question was how much was due to Petersen and how much was due to Harsin. That is still the question.

Looking towards the future, which of Jonathan Gray, Marcus Johnson, Cayleb Jones, Thomas Johnson, Overstreet, and Kendall Sanders be committed elsewhere if GDGD were still here? Then throw in DGB who has Texas in his final 2 apparently. It’s doubtful we would be getting a sniff without the allure of the Harsin offense.

“Ash should have been red shirted and Wood should have been used as the running package QB. Wood might not have done any better than Ash but it is unlikely that he would have done worse, Ash would have gotten the red shirt year that he desperately needed, and the horns would have had reasonable depth at QB rather than going with only 2 QBs 3/4 of the season. Encouraging Wood to leave was a big mistake.”

This is 100% truth. They should have recognized that Case’s physical limitations were so great that starting literally any other D1 quality athlete at the position would be an improvement. Coming out of fall camp it should have been clearly Gilbert – Wood – McCoy/Ash with the plan to RS Ash unless both Gilbert and Wood were lost for the year.

Obviously the QB position was a disaster this year. And there are things Kafka posits that make a lot of sense to me. But I would still argue that the biggest problem with everything in our pasing offense this year, lack of short throws included, was the inability of our WRs to get separation from corners, read defenses and settle into zone seams, and to get off the line cleanly. Our WRs were too physically weak (look at them all as a group) and lacked the explosiveness needed to help our QBs. I think the serious lack of both quality and depth at the WR spot contributed mightily to the struggles of EVERY single QB we rolled out there. It’s hard to undersell how bad our receiving corp has been for the past two seasons.

Zzzizzzy has a certain way of hitting the nail directly on the head.

Harsin did a little more, but I really don’t think he had less with which to do it. I think all told the personnel themselves were better in 2011 than in 2010. QB was a net-zero. RB was a huge net-positive over the course of the year, as even the poorer stock of 2010 had injuries that kept them from playing as much. Davis had an additional year of experience, but seemed to regress, while Kirk vs. Ship is an interesting discussion. TE was probably a push or at least a net-positive, since Irby was back. Of course the line was probably a decent positive. I really don’t see where there was a step down at any position, other than possibly WR.

TV, thanks for validating with stats what our eyes told us. Add in that Harsin did more with less, personnel-wise.

He manufactured points with clever play calls (thinking specifically of the Irby TD’s that kept us in the K-St. and A&M games as well as the Brown statue of liberty that kept us close to OSU). Also, Fozzy’s wildcat production before going down. Can’t see GD doing any of those things.

Biggest differences to me are these:

-Establishing a competent run game after not having one for years.
-Creative, going against tendency play calling.

This year was about laying a foundation on offense. We can’t help but get better with improved personnel at all positions and more time in this offense, even without a big talent at QB.

I am looking forward to the Holiday Bowl more than any Bowl game since the 2005 BCS Championship game. I hope to see an effective running game against a good run defense, and I hope to see David Ash take the reigns behind center. I also hope to see Diaz’s defense flying around and smacking some ball carriers. Traditionally, the Holiday Bowl ends up in a shootout, and we will need to manufacture some offense and may have to come from behind to win. This game will influence the 2012 season greatly. Decent to good QB play and we stick with what we’ve got going in to 2012, abysmal QB play leads to big changes at the position, imo.

Re: injuries. Most of the time, they can be ignored. However, when your top wideout (freshman) and your top three RBs (1 senior, 2 freshman) go out, it is of great significance. Most teams have young pups they can sub in when injuries occur, we did not have this luxury as the young pups were already out there.

Hook ’em!

“You, Barking Carnival reader, are a critical member of the Carl’s Jr. / Spencer Gifts / Lane Bryant customer service team. So here’s an executive executive summary…”

LMAO! Well done sir. I’m now having to use my last few kleenex to sop up the coffee I spewed onto my laptop…

The biggest stat of 2011 is beating Aggies on their field before a packed stadium on national tv in their last game in the Big 12 ending the 100 year tradition. Booo Yaaaah!!!

Mysterious -

Harsin has had some garbage points this year too. Nothing like GD putrid offense bit the OU game comes to mind. If we are going to knock GD, and we should, you have to compare apples to apples no? I don’t think it will make a big difference but perhaps it’s a more accurate look…

You raise a good point. I should have more clearly explained the methodology in my initial post. Bottom line, I don’t think taking out garbage time drives would make the comparison more even. Here’s why:

I should first explain the EV score-modeling method that I used. The first step is to collect data on all drives over the course of a season (or, in the case of the analysis I ran, over the course of the Big 12 season).

Next, certain drives that are meaningless (or likely meaningless) to measuring the offense are tossed out. These include any “drives” that are actually special teams returns-for-TD and half-ending / game-ending drives.

Third, the drives are organized by starting field position.

Fourth, the expected value of any given drive within a specified starting field position range is calculated by simply adding up the total points scored over all drives starting in that range, and then dividing by the number of drives in that range. Essentially, it’s just a calculation of the mean points scored over drives starting in the specified range.

The end result of that process is an EV profile, which is the set {EVi}, where the index i = 1, 2, 3, … k and represents the specified field position ranges.

To calculate an offense’s expected total scoring over the course of the season, you simply take the dot product of {EVi} and another set I call the drive number profile, {Ni}, where Ni is the number of drives within a field position range i. In other words, you do this:

ETS = (EV1 * N1) + (EV2 * N2) + … + (EVk * Nk)

So, given that methodology, why is it fair to remove the trash time drives from 2010’s calculation, but not 2011’s? A couple of reasons come to mind. The first is just a basic assumption of mine that points are easier to come by when the opponent has already clearly won the game. The reasons for this are numerous (playing subs instead of more talented starters, “prevent” style defense, minimal risk-taking, psychology, etc.).

Second, the 2010 scored an inordinate proportion of its points on trash drives. 40% of its points in losses came in the 4th quarter. Compare that to the 2011 team, which scored only 15% of its points in the 4th. (NOTE: that may indicate a different failure in Harsin’s offense, but that is beyond the scope of this discussion).

Finally, when I say I’m removing trash time drives from consideration, that doesn’t mean I just took those points off of the top and said “See, 2010 scored even less points!” What I did, in fact, was recalculate the EV profile considering only drives during which an eventual Texas loss was still in doubt (and thus, presumably, the opponent was still fielding its top defense). I simply didn’t consider any drive (whether Texas scored or not) after the game was effectively over. Remember that the EV profile provides a set of mean values. To get absolute scores, you have to multiple this profile by the drive number profile. So, the “minus trash time” analysis still assumes that the 2010 offense was given the same number of opportunities to score as in the original analysis. It’s just that, because the 2010 offense was so much more efficient at scoring in trash time than it was when the game was in doubt, the ultimate score prediction takes a big hit.

As a corrolary, I think (but haven’t confirmed) that removing trash time drives from the 2011 EV calculation would actually make Harsin look even better. Remember that the 2011 team scored very few points in the 4th quarter of its losses. Assuming that the team had approximately the same number of possessions in any given quarter, this implies that the 2011 team had a lower EV for drives in the 4th quarter than in other quarters. So, removing this data would only increase the overall EV profile and make Harsin’s offense appear more effective by comparison.

Let’s really be honest here: me slapping my dick on this year’s playbook to select from the menu of basic Harsin plays would’ve been better than another year of GDGD.

With Harsin, I’m looking forward to next year. Optimistic about the future and the economy. If GDGD was still around, I’d be wallowing in Aggie-esque self loathing and probably have some kind of cutting disorder.

Brickhorn-
1. Thanks for all of your hard work in coming up with these stats and this article explaining them. Excellent work.!
2. To all those who look back over this last year and say we should have done this or should have done that – hindsight is great but not the same as making the decisions in the present moment.
3. Harsin’s offense is designed to be a smash-mouth power running game with everyone blocking and when the opposing defense reacts then to hit them over the top with passes. Greg Davis offense was designed to spread the field with short and often sideways passing and then look for winning match-ups. That’s why their was no fullback in his system and no real concept of team blocking.
4. This year our offensive line had to learn how to block. They were previously not only poorly trained to do this but also in relatively poor condition and needed some attitude adjustments.
5. QB was a mess but when we have Harsin recruited and Harsin trained QBs then I think we will see a huge improvement in that position.

"You, Barking Carnival reader, are a critical member of the Carl’s Jr. / Spencer Gifts / Lane Bryant customer service team. So here’s an executive executive summary…"

That and the Alice in Chains reference were gold. As far as the statistics on Harsin vs Davis? Look, it is kind of like asking Daniel Boulud to display his chef skills with the crap he would find in a frat house refrigerator. C’mon man!

Everyone who is griping that Harsin didn’t do more… BE PATIENT. This whole offensive team was recruited to run spread and we didn’t. The QBs everyone is griping about are primarily the fault of GD. He destroyed Gilbert and Ash/McCoy were both his golden boys. Next year will be the first real class which Harsin has recruited and its BAD ASS.

That said, they will need probably two years to show what they can do. It might be too long for some of you, but I am not making a final decision until 2013.

alphahydro -

So, to me, saying that we’re 13.5% better than last year is like saying you quit your job at the Lane Bryant call center and you lost 50 pounds. That’s great. But if that’s only 13.5% of your weight, guess what . . . . YOU’RE STILL FUCKING FAT.

True, but remember that there’s more to football success than just scheme, game plan, and development. Talent is a huge part of the equation. Harsin had no control over the talent he inherited, which was either non-existent or extremely young.

So it’s not just about how well Harsin did as a matter of absolutes. The more relevant question is, “How well did he do, given the circumstances he could not control?” That his offense outperformed what we could have expected from a Greg Davis-coached offense in 2011 by somewhere between 13-60% on the scoreboard, despite inheriting a team with no experienced talent, no true tackles, and a headcase at quarterback and despite losing his four biggest playmakers for several games, is impressive.

Just looking at the very modest gains in YPP doesn’t tell the whole story. Look at what matters: scoring. And look at the context. When you do that, the job Harsin has done is pretty amazing.

Execellent Work, Brickhorn

If anyone thought Harsin was gonna waltz in to the Big XII and Jedi mind trick the rest of the conference into submission this year, they were wrong. UT was better on offense this year, when the major players were on the field. Not mind-blowing better, but enough so to indicate that, with any kind of adequate quarterback play, next year is promising.

Nothing has changed my mind about that. I think adding Jonathan Gray and a corps of good receivers will let Harsin diversify things, while still emphasizing the running game, something he’s done his whole career. I have to hope we don’t have the run of injuries to key players we did at the end of this season, and I have to believe that Searles will coach up the O-line even more. If those things happen, I look for Harsin’s offense next year to be a lot closer to what a lot of us thought it would be when he came aboard last year.

Harsin is a step up from GDGD…maybe a BIG step up.

burntorangehorn -

Harsin did a little more, but I really don’t think he had less with which to do it. I think all told the personnel themselves were better in 2011 than in 2010. QB was a net-zero.

Net zero? Maybe. But I tend to think that Gilbert had the right tools and could have been a decent D1 quarterback had he not had his football brain bashed in by Davis’s incompetence and lethargy in 2010.

And I think you’re forgetting the second most critical position: tackle. At RT, we started a natural guard. At LT, we started a guy so bad that he couldn’t hold off a true freshman. And then we started said true freshman. At left tackle, the most demanding position on the offensive line.

I think we lost a lot at WR. Chiles and Kirkendoll were solid. Ship was great, but (a) he’s a true freshman, and thus limited in what we could expect from him and (b) he was hurt for basically the second half of the season.

At running back, the 2011 team was definitely more talented. But, just like Shipley, the talent was young and then stuck in the training room for the latter part of the year.

When Case/Ash is your QB even 1% improvement is extraordinary. Neither Case nor Ash are D1 QBs. Haven’t seen this bad of QB play since the single wing days.

Great analysis, Brickhorn. Though I still agree with your initial assesment of Harsin in your text to Sailor

Disappointed in the development at quarterback and the continued rotation perhaps through the bowl game. Seems one of the three should have provided more stability with better coaching.

It was evident why Gilbert was the starter after fall camp. We will always ponder should he have been given another chance after BYU considering the weakness of Ash and McCoy.

The improved offense stats are the result of improved play in the offensive line. Their improved schemes and attitude were evident.

We should improve in 2012 due to the gains in our running game personnel alone.

2013 looks to be a year of high expectations, and rightfully so.

Good post.

Could’ve been far, far worse—our OC could’ve been Charlie Weis.

Great stuff. Stats are only part of the story here though.

Look at what we were rolling out there post Tech.

Give me one unit on offense that was even league average talent wise.

Maybe OL.

WRs without Shipley. Bad. Davis regressed.
QB train wreck. Starting a guy who should have never gotten a scholarship and a total rookie.
TE. Love Irby but child please.
RB. Top three out. Devastated.

Making chicken salad out of chicken shit has its limits.

Harsin had to be stunned at the subpar talent level at the University of By God Texas. He had a lot better at freakin Boise. We went all in on Gilbert who is apparently a nice kid but he cant play AT ALL. Davis didnt ruin him, he just cant play. Everybody whiffed on that one.

That all said, if we have our top three RBs healthy next year, two of whom get their first offseason in a real conditioning program, this team could look dramatically better. I think Ash has to be the guy next year and a lot more reps wont hurt him any. He can at least be serviceable.

Some of our scores were on gadget plays when NOTHING was working. We just stole those. We werent going to beat anybody with CJ being the main guy.

Overall what I see is sound, makes sense, and sets up some things. I am pretty happy given the circumstances.

Before I delve into all the glorious details in this glorious post, let me offer you this glorious quote from the coordinator’s corner transcript off mb-tf.com when asked about the QBs’ progress:

“They have done some really good things, and we have done some bad things.”

This speaks to Harsin’s character in my eyes. Notice when he’s discussing positives, it’s “they.” Giving credit to the QB’s. When he’s talking about the negatives, it’s “we.” He’s taking blame. He’s not taking all of the blame, which would be disingenuos, but he’s acknowledging that it’s his job to work out the kinks.

I just bring this up, because I have seen comments in other places about him throwing the players under the bus in post-game press conferences.

Fudge it all. Disingenuous.

Love the numbers. Here is my take from a more right brained perspective:

Harsin played nearly 500 freshmen this season. The difference between a 19 year old and a 22 year old is far more than 3 years. I believe he coached the hell out of this group, and indeed 3 of them were 3 of our best 4 players on offense.

Sometime in the Kansas/Texas Tech high school scrimmage fest, he discovered the lynchpin to this offense was Fozzy. His ability to pick up the guaranteed 8 yards out of the wildcat made us formidable on 3rd down and in the red-zone. It also took off considerable pressure on Ash, who was just beginning to connect the dots.

What was so clear to me in that Missouri game was that the whole game plan was about Fozzy. His injury was as big a one Texas has had in a season, and if there was any failing on Harsin, it may have been that he didn’t prepare for that. Though, I find it hard to lay blame, considering.

Losing Fozzy from a leadership perspective was just devastating. I dare say just removing that injury alone is the difference between 7-5 and 9-3.

I’m probably going to take a pounding for this……but I think Gilbert’s performance would have been a whole lot different this year if Brown and Bergeron would have started the game and the Horns would have ran the ball between the tackles from the first snap along with the mis direction plays (jet sweeps).

With Gilbert in the game, Texas tried to setup the run with the pass and it was a total disaster with Gilbert’s physical limitations (shoulder) and his inability to read defenses. I think Gilbert MIGHT have been salvagable with an established running game and not been so much of a turnover machine.

Harsin gets a generous but unspecified number of points simply because he’s not Greg Davis. At this early stage I just don’t need anything more.

On criticism I have of Harsin is not using Monroe more after Fozzy went down. Give him a shot in the wildcat role with Goodwin running the fly sweep off it. He’s not a 15 carry a game guy, but he could handle 5-10. He doesn’t have Fozzy’s power to break that first tackle at the line, but if the blocking is there he still has the speed to turn 10 into 20.

I should add that I really enjoyed the article, and I agree that it’s all about talent. (Look how many points GD was able to score in 05. . . )

Furthermore, the lack of offensive talent this year is NOT HARSIN’S FAULT.

Having said that, we are going to have plenty of offensive talent surrounding the QB during the next two years. Not a world beating OL, but good to very good. A wealth of talent at the skill positions, and those guys can usually perform as freshman and sophomores.

So, all that’s left is developing a QB.

IMO, it’s unfair to expect Harsin to groom a Heisman caliber QB in 2 years. But it’s not unreasonable (he makes a fair sum of money) to ask him to develop a competent QB out of Ash within 2 years. Not saying it’s a piece of cake, but if you’re paid to be the best, you should be able to get that done, especially with the surrounding talent.

That’s when I will start to judge Harsin.

If you want to judge him this season, you have to account for the talent he inherited.

But if you want to judge his performance this season by comparing it to last season, you have to account for the talent differentials there as well. would Harsin have done 13.5% (or 60%) better with last year’s players playing last year’s schedule? Maybe. With last year’s squad and position coaches, would Harsin be able to do to any team on the 2010 schedule what he did to Kansas and Tech? Doubt it. [I bet his stats this year don’t look as good over the first six quarters of 2011, when our offensive personnel most closely resembled last year’s (granted that we were installing a new offensive scheme) . . . or during the games where we were without Shipley, Brown, Bergeron, and Senior Fozzy.]

Bottom line: could Harsin turn last year’s squad into a championship caliber offense? I don’t see it.

But that doesn’t say much about what he can do with a bunch of talented players surrounding an efficient QB. And that’s the question that’s most important to me.

Based on everything I’ve seen (especially thanks to LonghornScott), I expect that Harsin will do really well under those circumstances. So I just hope he can get it done at QB.

Consider also that YPP for this year may have been distorted somewhat by the number of major sack losses by our inexperienced quarterbacks. Both had some major losses by not getting rid of the ball. I don’t believe Gilbert had those type of losses in 2010.

This nails it. You can’t take away a carpenter’s hammers, nails, saws, and… arms… and expect him to build much.

Mack Brown wants to repetitously blame it all on a lack of takeaways.

It is humorous that he failed to make such a claim over the past few years as our takeaways have fallen consistently since the recent of high of 31 in 2006. 2011’s 21 exceed those of 2010, ’08 and ’07.

Although his play calling against the Okie Duo & Misery were suspect, Harsin is definitely an improvement over GD GD. As for the Okie games, I think he thought he had more weapons at his disposal than he really did, going for more trick plays or plays that a more experienced & competent offense could run. The KU & Tech games were so far in the opposite direction that I wonder whether Mack exerted his influence there. Against Misery, the coaches got caught w/ their pants down, unfortunately partly due to their own making by running MB & Bergeron into injuries.

I think the more relevant question to ask is whether the other new assistant offensive coaches are an improvement? Searels is an improvement, although I’m not as high on him as many here are. Yes, I understand some guys may be playing out of position. And Cochran was a pleasant surprise. However, Walters seems to be the only bad ass among the group.

I don’t think Wyatt is an improvement. He may be able to recruit, but the receiving corps, outside of Shipley, remains awful.

When did five star recruits start being called duct tape and paper clips. I am remaining positive but I still feel like by the end of the year our offense should have been clicking better than it was. I will admit that injuries played a part in the lack of improvement but I still feel like we are lacking something. I watch high scoring teams like Oregon and the ball is out in 2 seconds regardless if it is a pass or run. They also spend less time between plays which gives the defense less time to set up and it also tires them out due to the pace. I have counted seconds when our offense plays and it usually takes 4-5 seconds to get the ball out. With the depth advantage we hold on most teams we should be running a very fast paced offense and wear the opponents defense out.

I know people keep talking about the talent drop off but some body needs to explain how Baylor has resurected their program with a bunch of two and three star players. I think the answer is simple, coaching. Manny Diaz took the players he inherited and turned them in to a very solid defense who consistantly improved throughout the season (excluding the Baylor game). Now it is time for Harsin and Applwhite to do the deal. No more excuses.

bullzak ~ "We went all in on Gilbert who is apparently a nice kid but he cant play AT ALL. "

Pretty much what they said about Buckner as he was leaving. He was just 61 yards short of being (4-8) Arizona’s #2 most productive WR! Imagine what he might have accomplished had he started more than 1 game for Arizona. Our #1WR had a whoppin’ 3 yards more than Buckner’s total.

RECEIVING GP-GS No. Yds Avg TD Long Avg/G
-————————————————————————-
Buckner, D. 12-1 42 606 14.4 2 54 50.5

Brick – I think the the thing causing grumbling over the garbage time TDs is that you stated that we scored 210 points this season, but if you exclude the garbage TDs, 2010 only scores 130 points. You didn’t rerun the numbers for 2011 though since you still use the 210 total points.

However, since we were only scored 1 TD all season against OU when we were out of the game, the numgers don’t really change much.

Davis’s “Regression” – He did catch 2 less passes. However, he he had 100+ more yards, and his ypc went from 10.2 to 13.5. Also, we only had 326 pass attempts this year as compared to 441 this year. That means he acounted for 13.8% of the completions this year, as opposed to just 10.7% last year, which lead the team. Ship Sr was great and is missed, but it wasn’t a good thing that he caught more than 1/3 of McCoy’s passes in 09. That just meant we were limited. Spreading the ball around is a good thing.

I love when people jump on the “regression” bandwagon when a true sophomore (in a new system, I might add) doesn’t double their true freshman output. He needs to improve his focus/hands and his strength, but saying he regressed is incorrect.

I’m in an agreeable mood. I agreee we were marginably better. I agree the gameplanning was questionable in a few games. I agree that the qb handling was a disaster. I agree that we may be asking the wrong question about the wrong coach.

Harsin is still an unknown at this point. The one thing that has improved is our running game. Is that Harsin’s work or Searles? He is definitely an upgrade over GD, but how much? 5%? That doesn’t seem like much, but maybe it is. I’m optimistic, but at this point, our only hope for significant improvement as a whole is for Ash to make significant improvement as an individual.

Throwing a true freshman QB or Case out there next year is not an answer unless the question is: How can we keep playing mediocre to bad offense? I can’t recall a team that was so reliant on needing one player to improve and that player not really showing too much to hang your hat on in the first place. Weird situation. We need to all hope for the best for Ash in this bowl game. A good showing for Ash will be huge for his confidence going into the offseason.

Harsin is still growing as a coach. Davis was pretty well plateaued out years ago. To me that is the big difference.

Alphahydro -

You referenced my take on the 13.33% and if you read a little farther down you would have seen that I said “5 – 7 is really abysmal” which was the point I was making.

Kinda like a dead cat bounce if it wasn’t for the new talent being brought in.

Also, the most telling story from the season may be seeing the players buying in to the S&C and the coaching staff. I know this thread is directed at Harsin, but S&C is a vital part for every position coach and coordinator.

Last year’s team quit.

This first year with Bennie was the first step.

Brick – I think the the thing causing grumbling over the garbage time TDs is that you stated that we scored 210 points this season, but if you exclude the garbage TDs, 2010 only scores 130 points. You didn’t rerun the numbers for 2011 though since you still use the 210 total points.

Right. Because, what you’d have to do to get a fair comparison in that case is to actually project how many points the 2011 offense would have scored if you (a) excluded the trash time drives from the EV profile calculation, but (b) retained the trash time drives in the drive number profile. In other words, those possessions still count as a drive opportunity that the 2011 offense, it’s just that the actual performance during those drives is no longer accounted for in determining the EV profile. My guess is that, if you did that, the total expected score number would actually be higher than 210, because you’d be projecting the EV of meaningful time drives (which, in 2011, had a higher EV) onto drives that were, in fact, garbage time drives.

Harsin would look slightly better under that analysis. The way I did it is probably generous to Davis.

The alternative is to exclude garbage time drives from the drive number profile as well, in which case the 2011 offense would be credited with 203 points, and the projection of the 2010 offense onto the 2011 drive profile would result in something less than 130 points.

Nice, write up, Brick. And agree with the poster who said Harsin is still maturing as a coach. While he was an OC at BSU, seems like Petersen still maintained a fair amount of control over the offense.

Next year will be very interesting. All the coaches will have had a solid year around each other and a better sense of where the problems are. The offense returns nearly everyone with more experience under their belt.

I feel like any time you change offensive systems in college it ends up taking at least 2 years to iron out the wrinkles and get the proper personnel in place to accomplish what you want.

Competition at every position and the best player playing will tell us a lot next year. Plus getting rid of a lot of dead wood players with bad attitudes is a big plus.

Brick, this is an A+ breakdown – great stuff, man.

The work Harsin has done in providing us with a real, honest-to-God run game in less than a full year on the job is phenomenal given our futility in that regard since VY left. The failings of the offense, especially in the run game, were the work of the whole offensive staff but the key is that Davis ALLOWED IT TO HAPPEN. He didn’t DEMAND that his players get stronger and better conditioned. He didn’t DEMAND that his OL learn better technique. He stood by and allowed lazy recruiting, evaluation and development across the entire offense.

We’ve made a jump from literally the bottom 10% of OCs in terms of run game scheme and design to the top 5%, but to me the biggest thing Harsin brings is a demand for excellence that was utterly lacking after his predecessor retired on the job. He’s obviously aided by the addition of an energetic young staff and his counterpart on defense bringing a similar intensity and drive, but his role in that culture change has been vital.

My quibbles with him have been echoed above – mainly, not trying something else against Mizzou (our entire game plan was shot to shit but Lord, that was a lot of deep balls in the wind) and the seeming de-emphasis on our edge/constraint run game later in the season, but I also don’t forget how well things were humming before we got absolutely FUBARed by injury. On the QB front, I don’t know that Case is develop-able and Ash had received SO few snaps in the summer and during the season as QB with full responsibility for the offense that his progress was going to be massively hindered no matter what. My hope is that we’re able to pick a designated starter for next year and give him all the reps needed for development.

On a side note, I have yearned for ‘points per drive’-type data for YEARS. We should have an offseason statistical confab with Huck.

The fact that we have too dig deep into the details too decide if he was an upgrade should tell you it was pretty even. I’m not even sure comparing to Davis’s worst year by far is even fair to Davis.

I like the direction the offense is going and I think the lack qb play really set Harsin back more than anything. I think we will get a lot better in the next few years.

Where we really missed Davis in my opinion was his coaching of the QB position, every QB we had under Davis showed measurable improvement while in the program, and until last year they did seem to be very well prepared even if the play calling during the game left a lot to be desired.

nobis60 – Thanks, man. I’m glad you enjoyed it. Also, points-per-possession stats are available on Huck’s Adjusted Stats site. Interestingly, Texas finished 84th nationally on this measure in 2010 and 46th nationally in 2011. That echoes the EV profile.

HP -

The fact that we have too dig deep into the details too decide if he was an upgrade should tell you it was pretty even. I’m not even sure comparing to Davis’s worst year by far is even fair to Davis.

Well, I might argue that the stat I started with, yards-per-play, is actually the more detailed statistic. The fact is that it’s deceiving. Harsin’s offense was much better at its single most important job (scoring points) than was Davis’s.

And, comparing Harsin 2011 to Davis 2010 is the only reasonably fair comparison one can possibly make. Once you go any further back, the personnel differences overwhelm the analysis. At least between the 2010 and 2011 squads, there was a significant roster overlap.

There is a popular Internet axiom that all of our problems were based entirely off of injuries and that we would be BCS worthy had they not happened. I think running up the score against a helpless Kansas and Tech defense gave everyone a false sense of security with regards to offensive improvement. More realistically our lack of QB play was going to eventually catch up to us against respectable defense.

In a results business Harsin/Applewhite did not deliver. That is the bottom line. Our offense was horrible – again.

Newy, we lost our 4 best offensive players for all or most of our last several games. You cant wish that away especially when 3 of them played one position. We had fumes at RB.

There arent many teams that would survive that. Without them, I think we are easily 9-3 which would have been a monumental improvement over 2010.

HP: By quarterback progression under GD do you mean the total destruction of a 5 star rated QB in Gilbert in 2010? Or Vince’s progression in 04,05 when they finally decided to let Vince be Vince? One thing GD did do was establish the zone read to take advantage of Vince’s skill set. Not sure GD has such a clear cut advantage in the QB development area.

Can’t say about some of the games, but we absolutely would have beaten KSU with a healthy Brown, Bergeron, Shipley, and Fozzie. We would have won if it wasn’t for the horrible punt fumble call without all those guys. And we have a fighter’s chance of beating Missouri. 9-3 and 7-5 would be considered much different in most people’s eyes

Colt McCoy got better by working out and getting stronger and deciding to run more when plays break down. Good job Greg!

Look no further than the 2009 offense to see an offense in mid-collapse even with some NFL caliber talent.

Part of the reason we had injuries were directly related to bad coaching decisions. Joe B hurt his hamstring on carry number 30 when we had a 5 TD lead.

Harsin lives withe results of this offense good or bad. And this year it was bad.

Newy25, I agree that leaving Bergeron in with a lead was a coaching decision that in some way lead to an injury.

However, is it unreasonable to think that a college freshmen is able to carry 30 rushing attempts in one game and not get injured?

Running Joe B on the 30th carry was not a bad coaching decision. He was a freshman RB taking up starting time, and needed all the game experience that he could get. Being a dominant RB calls for taking 25-30 or more carries; it happens in plenty of games every Saturday. Coaches can’t play scared when everyone is inexperienced with the system and almost all young. Players can get hurt every time the ball is snapped. If it were on his 50th carry, that would be different. Blame turf, fate, conditioning, whatever, but not the reasonable decision to let a young player ride it out and see what he can do.

In the end, whether we agree or disagree, or agree to disagree, the point remains that the injury sucked. You just can’t game plan for your top four offensive playmakers all being out at the same time. Especially when three of those four are freshmen. What can you do, go play the aspiring and talented young upstart when the star goes down? Not an option, sadly.

I really can’t believe that some people are seriously questioning whether Harsin was an improvement or not.

Nor can I believe that some people are suggesting that the incredible rash of injuries to the RBs and Shipley should be overlooked. I am all for bottom-line accountability, but c’mon.

Brick,

You are now one of my favorite posters. I have a particular weakness for logic and well-benchmarked analysis. Thanks for the writeup.

I think we could use your talents on the UT Recruiting Player Analysis Team. What do ya say?

Yes it was a bad coaching decision. The risk/reward was not in balance. Going for carry number 30 while up by five scores while your only other feature back is already hurt was a terrible coaching move and we paid dearly for it. If we went up by six TD’s did we get an extra prize in that game?

That being said of course Harsin will ultimately prove to be an upgrade over Davis even if he was not in year one. But being better than Greg F Davis is not the bar we should be trying to shoot for.

It’d be helpful if we had a frame of reference for what a good and great offense looks like. i.e. what do 2005 and 2008/9 look like under the same criteria.

Newy-
I completely agree with your statement about overusing Bergeron. it was a bad decision and we paid a heavy price or it. I only partially agree with your premise about using the Greg Davis Bar. The question is – “Are we headed in the right direction?” Not – "Are we there yet? Many on this site seem to be like kids in the back seat. If we aren’t there it doesn’t matter if we are headed there. I disagree. You have to drive before you get there.

If a college RB can’t hold up after 30 carries in 1 game, then he isn’t going to be durable enough to carry 15 a game over a season anyway.

Wasn’t the greatest decision. Wasn’t the worst either.

volibolero -

Thanks for the kind words. Not sure what kind of help you could use, but drop me a line at brickhorn@yahoo.com

nobis60 -

I ran a quick calculation to see how well Huck’s raw points-per-possession (PPPs) stat predicts expected scoring in the Big 12. The result is odd. Just multiplying the 2010 offense’s raw PPPs (1.766) by the number of meaningful drives the 2011 offense had during Big 12 play (114) predicts 201 points. That’s 20 points more than the EV profile model predicts. Because PPPs should include in its denominator drives that I do not, I would have expected PPPs to predict a lower points total. This could be a result of two factors:

(1) PPPs is calculated over the entire season, not just Big 12 play. The team likely scored a lot more efficiently in its non-conference schedule.

(2) PPPs probably includes non-offensive scores. My EV profile model is designed to focus as closely as possible on just the offense’s performance (although it’s not perfect).

The salient question I have is whether Harsin’s repeated stubbornness for the vertical passing game is a reflection of the ability of the current playmakers out there OR a failure to execute the short passing game (and therefore setup more favorable down and distance scenarios)?

Harsin’s game management has been questionable and I certainly feel like he either refused to accept the limitations of his players, or does not necessarily have the QB development skills that his reputation seems to command. The fact that the timing routes and middle-of-the-field passing game were sparingly used is a concern. This should be low hanging fruit … which would open up the downfield game that he appears so enamored with.

Despite those failures, he has timed trick plays well and manufactured points in what would have likely resulted in offensive ineptitude taking the more traditional route. It’s a mixed bag. I feel like he relies too heavily on misdirection, and often abandons plays due to execution errors or fear of tendencies.

Timing is everything in life. Imagine if Harsin (or any other OC — I’m not saying it’s anything particular to Harsin) had been hired a year earlier, and statistical comparisons went against 9 straight 10 win seasons and all the gaudy offensive stats from that period.

I’m not all that persuaded by modestly favorable comparisons to the 2010 Texas Longhorns offense, but nonetheless, I’m glad it worked out that way. It’s good that Harsin and the other new coaches get a couple of years of relative shelter from criticism stemming from the disastrous 2010 season, and they have some time to install a system and to develop and recruit players within it, rather than coming under heavy fire right away.

California -

The timing point is a good one. But bear in mind that the changeover in personnel between 2009 and 2010 was staggering. After losing Colt, Shipley the Elder, 80% of the offensive line, and Tre Newton and gaining no players capable of filling their shows, comparing the offenses between those two seasons would not have been useful.

No one thinks GD should have performed at 2009’s level in 2010, given the personnel on hand. The criticism of GD in 2010 stems from his failure to recruit and/or develop talent. His abject failure to maximize talent was clearly on display for the first time in 2010 because it was the first time he didn’t have any talent to work with.

Between 2010 and 2011, the offense lost fewer critical parts (although it did lose some) and gained some young talent. Simply put, the talent / experience level is more comparable betweem 2010 and 2011 than it was between 2009 and 2010.

Good job, Brick Horn. You got the fodder down to the calves.

I was happy when GD was shown the door but I think the most important component for offensive success is to have playmakers, thats the main reason GD got canned and why the offense this year succeded (when healthy) and looked awful when it wasnt healthy and last but not least you need a consistant QB which at the present time we dont have.

Lonesome: I was actually referring to the 13.5% figure from the main blog entry. Wasn’t responding to your post at all. Sorry for the confusion.

YPP (and aYPP) is a good stat, but I think it has to be used in conjunction with turnover percentage to truly judge an offense. It’s easier to rack up a high YPP with a gunslinger-type mentality. Based on memory (though I’ve tried unsuccessfully to purge some of Gilbert’s throws) I would imagine this is yet another data point in Harsin’s favor.

Brick horn, great analysis. Love your work.

That said, a lot of the comments are pretty interesting. I find the conversations about Ash particularly fascinating, because it’s a carbon copy of the conversations we were having last year about Gilbert. One meme in particular: “GG could have been serviceable if he hadn’t gotten his confidence shattered by GDGD. Give him a full offseason of starter’s reps, and he’ll be…”

It’s not that I think there’s NO validity to taking that position, it’s just that I know what’s going to happen if Ash comes out next year and has a couple of bad games the way Gilbert did this year. We’ll start howling for change, the same as we did this year. Maybe he blows us all away, but what if he struggles? If we’re down about 10 points to a BYU like team, and can’t get our running game going, and receivers are dropping balls, and Ash throws a pick or two, what happens then?

I guess what I’m asking is, at this point, what signs of progress have you seen from Ash that make you think he’s redeemable, as opposed to the ruin that was GG?

TexanNick -

I guess what I’m asking is, at this point, what signs of progress have you seen from Ash that make you think he’s redeemable, as opposed to the ruin that was GG?

I wish I could answer that question, but I’m the wrong guy to ask. LonghornScott has more to offer in the X’s and O’s / player evaluation department. I just crunch numbers and look for big picture trends.

That said, I’m hopeful that Harsin can build an offense suited to Ash’s skills and intended to minimize the potential for turnovers. The kid was a true freshman last season. If he is annointed as the starter – which is a BIG “if” – then I’d like to see how he does after a full slate of Spring and Fall practices in an offense customized to him (rather than as a contingency plan in an offense designed for the Head Coach’s lost cause).

The biggest differences between GG and Ash are the age and the coach. Ash’s CMP%, YPA, TD/A, INT/A are verys similar to GG’s, but Ash’s numbers were generated in year 1. GG’s were generated in year 2 and didn’t improve in year 3.

QBs need time to develope. GG was given time, although probably not handled very well. Even though you wouldn’t know it by reading the comments section here, there actually are NOT that many QBs who come in their true freshman year and can lead a team. Ash should get his time now, and hopefully it works out better for him than it did GG.

Your analysis confirmed for me the “eye test” that Harsin’s offense was significantly better than Davis’. I totally agree that UT would have been a 9-3 team were it not for the devastating injuries. In addition to the above analysis, UT’s offense took better care of the ball generally with 26 TO’s vs 30 in 2010. Take out the OU and Baylor games as aberrations, and UT turned the ball over only 15 times. Ash and McCoy had their bad moments, but GG was a turnover machine. Plus, does anyone really think we would have beaten BYU or even UCLA, ISU or TT with GDGD at the helm?

Having Brown and Joe B out for the Missou game may have been the best thing possible with that crap, 1970’s playing surface. Imagine if they had gone down with bad injuries as well as Fozzy. Mizzou is a joke and good riddance.

GDGD was a sock puppet for Mack. His non-Mack track record is less than 50%, at Tulane, Arky, and Jawjuh. Harsin seems to have implemented – or tried to – what Mack asked for. I think Mack has been mostly hands-off, but has reverted to his old ways on the sideline. Were I HarsinWhite, I believe I would ask Manny to detail a couple of BigBodies to bracket Mack during our offense’s field time, and make sure the players know that Major is who they listen to. Harsin may need to resort to coming downstairs and handing Mack the headset and telling him “Man, you wanna drive the bus, drive it… I’ll take a seat.”

Numbers are great and all, but I am much more of a big picture guy and there is no way you can accurately measure the true impact Harsin did have and will have in number because there is no way to quantify in numbers were he started.

Consider that when Harsin came to Austin he was not able to select one player he would be using to build his offense. Not one player had been recruited to UT because they had the skills he and the offensive staff felt would excel in their scheme. Granted, some skills and abilities are transferable, but not all and different schemes place a bigger preference on different keys. It is one reason why I truly believe we won’t know what this offense is supposed to look like until 2013 at the earliest.

He was given one spring to identify some of the parts he had to work with, determine how they could fit into the offense he and the staff would begin implementing, and then teach the basics of how they wanted the positions in the offense to be played and integrating the offense. Eight months were spent bringing along Garrett Gilbert only to see a worst case scenario and GG be effectively gone 6 quarters into the season. That left Harsin with two quarterbacks with very little game experience and who weren’t recruited for his system. More importantly, instead of spending those 8 prior months bringing on of these two along the lion share of that time and energy was spent on Gilbert (based upon what we know I would say that was the right decision at the time.) and because Texas was now in the season there was little time in the week to spend on teaching the fundamentals of the position at a college level let alone his system when the Horns were having to implement a game plan each and every week.

What was brilliant to me was that Harsin tried to re-shape this offense with the pieces he had at his disposal not one, but three times and twice it was done during the season. After Gilbert was lost we saw a fundamental change where there was an emphasis placed on the running game and away from depending upon the quarterback position. I truly believe we saw what he wanted this offense to become in the Oklahoma State game and that is far and away the Horns best offensive game of the season.

Unfortunately, over the next few weeks we saw the offense stripped of two wide receivers (Harris and Shipley) and the Horns top three running backs. The offensive line improved, but the growth could not happen fast enough to control games on their own, Davis does not have the dominant physical skills or attributes to be the sole all field threat in the passing game, and neither of the quarterbacks has the skill set, ability, nor experience to take the offense solely on their soldiers as we saw with Colt in 2008-09.

Not only did we see distinct ideas of what Harsin wanted to do with this offense, but the team went into games with specific plans of attack. There were no ISU 2010’s. It is fair to say that some of those plans were heavy on the smoke and mirrors, but it remains to be seen whether that is out of preference or necessity. If it is the second that should resolve itself as the talent improves and it should be noted that while the Big XII is not a great overall defensive conference the overall athletic ability of the athletes he was seeing and having to prepare on a weekly basis were better than he saw at Boise. In short, better talent each week in schemes he wasn’t familiar without his choice of weapons.

As far as play calling, I do agree at times he got a bit cute, but again we will need to wait to see if that is a byproduct of lack of talent at key positionsor a need for his play calling to evolve to match the schemes in the Big XII. I would have to think having a few players he knows he can count on with clear some of that up in 2012 and beyond.

Finally, in comparing talent I don’t completely agree in comparing talent from 2010 with 2011 in a one to one basis because many of those players aren’t asked to either function nor are utilized on an individual basis.

Example, Texas could have had Justin Blaylock or Dan Neil in 2010 and does anyone really believe the overall quality of play in the offensive line would have been that much better based upon talent, teaching, scheme, and play calling?

Offensive line – the line play in 2011 was definitely better in 2011 than 2010. I again think we say the zenith against OSU and the issues at the end of the year did not bother me nearly as much because the young linemen just are not physically ready to dominate defenses without a quality back or legitimate passing game. To Harsin’s credit, we saw him try to utilize this strength over the last 2/3 of the season.

Receivers – 2010 had 5 functional college receivers in Kirkendoll, Davis, Goodwin, Chiles, and Williams. None were great, but there was some talent, speed, and a couple of guys who were dependable. In 2011 the Horns started with Shipley, Davis, and Goodwin. Look at Mike Davis’ numbers against OU and OSU and notice that when Jaxon was effective and the Horns could run a little he produced in the offense. When Jaxon was lost and there was not a second dependable receiving threat or running game Mike disappeared. He does need to grow in some areas, but this is not a guy who has #1 receiver size or speed. He is however a guy who can be a damn good #2 or #3 and I think we see that in 2012. Goodwin is still a track guy who is struggling to use his speed in patterns. Nod to 2010 all the way.

Tight end – 2010 had Greg Smith which was fine because after the loss of Irby Davis had shifted away from using the tight end in the passing game. Odd when you consider Texas had a run of three great college TE’s in Scaife, Thomas, and JMF as well as the fact the TE’s were the prominent receiving threats in the Horns 2004 passing game (anyone remember the leading WR that year?) . TE has been a staple for the offenses Harsin has run and the lack of a viable TE hurt his ability to diffuse the loss of Jaxon, the three backs, or address the growing pains of having young quarterbacks. To be blunt, there is no TE currently on the Texas roster who has the overall skill set or ability that Harsin wants/needs from that position. Might be harsh, but Irby and Grant struggled blocking, Luke is an OT with an 80’s number, Matthews and Jones don’t offer much in the passing game and struggle blocking, Terrell seems to have no interest lining up next to an OT, and if McFarland was able to sniff being ready he would have played this year. Mack played a true frosh at left OT so does anyone really think he would hesitate to play at true frosh at TE if the kid could have helped this team in 2011? The lack of TE’s in 2011 really hampered Harsin and the lack of emphasis in recruiting in THIS class is a mystery to me.

Running back – nod goes to 2011 based upon higher YPC without a viable passing threat. That and a healthy Mal, Joe, and Foz 2011 trumps CJ at HB, Foz 2010, and GG. Injuries did cost Davis Tre in 2010, but Harsin was stripped of his top three backs and he did find a away to get the ball in DJ’s hands 47 times on basically 47 different variations on the fly sweep.

Bottom line is a the end of the year Harsin had less talent at RB, QB, and WR with better performing offensive line.

I do believe Harsin is going to do good things at Texas, believe there will be improvement next year, but am concerned at QB next year as well as believe we truly won’t get an idea what the offense will look like until 2013.

Tex Long:

I agree. At mid-season Mack said, “…I’m just a spectator.”

Too bad that’s not entirely true. For example, in the Baylor game, HarsinWhite wanted to bench McCoy after his 3rd interception, but was overruled by Mack. Bad decision. McCoy was responsible for 5 of our 6 turnovers.

Mack has a long history of sticking with things that don’t work. Need I mention G. Davis and McWhorter — 5 years too long. But, I don’t want to get started on that. My message to Mack would be, “Stay out of the way and let your OCs and the DC do their jobs, dammit!”

Davey – great post.. couldn’t have said it better