Holiday Bowl Preview: California Offense

by Scipio Tex on Dec 20, 2011 5:07 PM CST in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

DANG! What's up with all these books?

Read this 1868 write-up in the New York Times detailing a not-so-epic, mostly very sad, Texas bull-California grizzly contest decried as a "burlesque of civilization" (after several breathless paragraphs detailing the action, mind you). It is equal parts compelling, fascinating, cruel, and lamentable and features 2,000 California hoopleheads - early adopters of reality television - watching the spectacle at the outrageous price of $1.

It turns out large animals don't just attack each other for no reason and you have to beat them and pull on them with ropes to do so. Then they mostly bellow and lay on their sides panting and begging for water. Much like our offense after Fozzy went down.

I had a chance to dig down a bit on Cal's offense and I think the match-ups are favorable for the Longhorn defense. Assuming Manny Diaz doesn't lose his mind and Zach Maynard doesn't suddenly channel Aaron Rodgers. Cal's offense finished in roughly the top third of college football, but did so against more than its share of bad defenses. However, over their last four games, Cal saw their efficiency and efficacy increase as it moved the burden of playmaking from Zach Maynard to their running game, stopped forcing their defense to defend short fields, and played a SEC version of Pac 12 football more favorable to their personnel mix.

Cal's best football was over their last four games (went 3-1, with 3 point loss to Stanford) and over this time Maynard averaged 23.8 attempts per game vs. 34.8 attempts per game in his previous eight. Similarly, he had one interception in those four games vs. ten in his previous eight. I will now solemnly intone cliches like game management and not beating yourself, but in this case, they're actually true.

Jeff Tedford has learned that less is more when it comes to the Cal passing game. It will be difficult for that formula to hold against Texas since I don't expect them to run all over us, unless he's just counting on our offense imploding like a super nova while his offense takes advantage of whatever we hand them. Which isn't a bad bet.

Offense

Jeff Tedford's offensive load on the QB is famous and QB Zach Maynard didn't handle it all that well in losses to USC, Oregon, and UCLA (those three games accounted for 7 of his 11 interceptions, less than 6.5 YPA in each). Tedford wants his QB to have the answers to every question and instead of focusing on "let's do these five things well" he wants his guy to know the one perfect audible/read combo for every situation. This goes against the grain of college football's recent spread movement where reads are simplified and uncluttered minds housed in athletic bodies making plays are favored over cerebral dissections, but Tedford is married to his outlier status.

Run the number of defensive looks a QB can see multiplied by the number of Cal's sets and you start to get into large numbers. The downside is athlete overload, the upside is the ability to put together a one play, 70 yard scoring drive when the stars align appropriately and you call the perfect play. Avoiding the latter is how we win the game.

Zach Maynard transferred from Buffalo (started all year for them in 2009) and has had an up and down year in 2011. He's skinny, mobile (he can scoot, but isn't much featured in the Cal running game) and can make most of the throws. At his worst, he's the inconsistent impediment to the full realization of Cal's passing game (decent OL, great WR duo). At his best, as against Stanford, he's an efficient operator who can hurt defenses downfield in play action when the Cal running game is garnering respect. He's not terribly accurate (57% completion), but in his defense, Cal features a downfield passing game and three yard gimme completions aren't hardwired into what they do.

We've seen at least a half dozen QBs better than Maynard this year and he will fold if you hit him consistently. He's also better than anyone we have. YOU HAVE TO BE CRUEL TO BE KIND.

Isi Sofele put together a great statistical year (232-1266-9 Tds, 5.5 ypc) and he's basically a less versatile, Tongan Hodges Mitchell. He runs surprisingly well between the tackles given his diminutive stature and does a nice job of making sharp interior cuts to green space, but he doesn't break many tackles and tends to feast off of well-blocked runs and good play calls (Cal's two back shotgun set features wrap around draws, counters, traps that particularly exploit his niftiness) more than spectacular innate playmaking. Cal has a long history of elite RBs and though Sofele is productive, don't confuse him with Marshawn Lynch or Jahvid Best. He's backed up capably by CJ Anderson who sees extensive work as the goal line back (8 rushing touchdowns).

Note: Surprisingly, Sofele is not a receiving threat and not much involved in the Cal passing game, which has historically used their RBs cleverly to shut down blitzes. Acho and Robinson may have free reign to bring the pain.

WR/TE

The best players on the Cal offense. The three top WRs are all 6-3 and possess ball skills. All-American Keenan Allen had a huge year and he's a long strider (6-3, 205) who will go and get the ball (89-1261-6 TDs) with an array of crafty routes and strong hands that pluck the ball from tight spots. He's not a crazy combine athlete - just a badass, general baller. Easily Cal's best player and he'll draw Carrington Byndom's attentions with plenty of late arriving help over the top from our coach on the field. He has knack for coming up big against Cal's biggest opponents and he's a legit NFL dude.

Marvin Jones is similarly built (6-3, 200, 55-762 yards) and he has been a consistent fixture in Cal's starting line-up for several years. I expect his size to give Quandre Diggs some trouble, but he has seen a decline in his production over the last half of the season. He's a reliable veteran who won't be phased.

Cal passed for 2806 yards this season and Allen and Jones accounted for 2023 of them. When two guys account for 72% of your passing offense, it's pretty clear where you'd like the ball to go and I suspect Manny Diaz will discern this over four weeks of film study.

Big TE Anthony Miller (6-4, 260) and big body WR Michael Calvin (6-3, 215) will be asked to make some key third down catches if Cal wants to move the chains.

I think they're a solid group, possibly even underrated by Cal fans themselves since I'm not blown away by Golden Bear talent at RB and QB. There are no Alex Macks to be found, but some solid dudes nonetheless. Opponents garnered 22 sacks over the course of the year and Tedford will ask his QB to take a deep drop and count four Mississippi from time to time to free one of their receivers downfield. That has to be punished with hits, pressures, and sacks. They're mostly human sized (6-4, 299 on average) and they get after it pretty well in the running game with energy and movement. They're all juniors and seniors so fire zone blitzes aren't exactly foreign to them. RG Justin Cheadle and 1st Team All Pac 12 LT Mitchell Schwartz (6-6 320) are their best two OL in my very limited viewing. Their squatty center strikes me as exploitable if Dorsey/Randall want to bring it.

Overall

I think our D acquits itself well, but the offense has to do something or it won't really matter. That preview, coming soon.

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Comments

Seems like this game will be roughly comparable to Mizzou. Cal’s offense sounds decent and capable of moving the ball and scoring their share, but the outcome of the game will depend on the Longhorn offense holding up their end of the bargain. With a full month to get healthy and game plan, I’m trusting in a no-excuses Harsin offense to prove that QB development is not a myth and to show the rushing game is running on all cylinders again (minus Fozzy).

by PoofyBevo on Dec 20, 2011 5:58 PM CST reply actions

Thanks for the write-up and Happy Holidays, Scip. The Allen/Byndom match-up should be a treat to watch. The BON review gave Maynard a bit more credit as a running threat in their zone read with Sofele. Thoughts?

by hopefulhorn on Dec 20, 2011 6:06 PM CST reply actions

Poofy -

Good comparison.

I’m not sure what QB development can happen in a month, honestly. I’m hanging my hat on our running game.

hopeful -

It’s a theoretical threat. He has run on that play maybe 20 times all year. I’d like nothing more than to put some free hits on Maynard. He’s willowy.

by Scipio Tex on Dec 20, 2011 6:42 PM CST reply actions

Cal has a long history of elite RBs

Ahh, remember when that was true of Texas? 2012 can’t get here soon enough. Fuck the Mayans and their lazy calendar making.

by burntorangejuice on Dec 20, 2011 7:24 PM CST reply actions

I think a heck of alot can happen to the Qb play in a month, Including Harsin using Ash as he should be used. For some reason i think that kid will be good. Maybe the new WR’s coming in next season will light a fire under Davis.

by 55f100tx on Dec 20, 2011 7:33 PM CST reply actions

Pretty spot on Scipio….if Cal can establish moderate running game with Isi and CJ(better pass catcher and bigger RB) then we will see the passing game open up-a big if obviously..

We all know the D scheme of both teams will be to simply stop the run and force both qbs to either win or lose the game…….btw…

FCHorn of Shaggy(formerly gobears92 of HFs)
FCBear on BearInsider

by gobears92 on Dec 20, 2011 8:35 PM CST reply actions

As far as the best chronicling of a bear and bull fight, Lonesome Dove wins hands down. We should probably study that for guidance.

I don’t think I’ve ever been this uninterested in a Texas bowl game. Oh sure, I’ll watch as I’m an addict and that’s what I do, but the last 2 years have worn me out. The last time I felt even close to this was the ASU Alamo Bowl and the next 2 years were pretty good so that might be a good sign.

by stuckinmn on Dec 20, 2011 8:42 PM CST reply actions

Journalism … you gots it!

…in the right measure
…it’s a very good sign

I’ll stop there, although I am fond of your posts (no homo).

-dasmithjones

by Your "Friend" in the State Capital on Dec 20, 2011 11:21 PM CST reply actions

Bear-Bull: Paint Your Wagon.

by Dave on Dec 21, 2011 12:01 AM CST reply actions

Paint your wagon and come along
Paint your wagon and sing a song
Or some shit like that

by UT wildcatter on Dec 21, 2011 2:44 AM CST reply actions

I have this terrible, horrible feeling that the great aligner of defenses will fail us one last time on his way out the door.

Those WR give me the hives.

by Bateshorn on Dec 21, 2011 6:36 AM CST reply actions

This game, for our offense, is all about David Ash and the Texas coaches being able to put him in a position to manage the game. Sticking with the running game, grinding out yards and eating up clock, flipping the field, punting, are all keys to a Texas win.

I predict the ‘Great Aligner’ will have a game-saving pick in this one…the stars have to align for that kid at some point.

by uthookem on Dec 21, 2011 7:31 AM CST reply actions

I’ve said it before on this site but I truly believe that this is Ash’s big tryout game. He’ll have had a month to prepare. If he plays like ass then he’s done. I understand that he got thrown into the fire much sooner than planned; however, if he can’t move the offense with healthy RBs and a full month to prepare then bring in Brewer.

by Ty on Dec 21, 2011 8:12 AM CST reply actions

Ty-

He will be done with what? We like, don’t have anyone else other than Case and another true freshman.

Allen is going to be a problem for Affirmative Action in our secondary. That is a given but I agree we can win this game with even moderate success on offense. Run the ball 60 times in this game and pray for a 9-6 SEC style victory and limp away to Spring practice.

by Newy25 on Dec 21, 2011 8:55 AM CST reply actions

You must have been really disinterested if you remember playing ASU in the Alamo Bowl.

From reading BON and the Cal blog it seems like we may have an advantage in kick and punt returns so hopefully we can get a score or at least short field that way. Also, Cal has had some kicks blocked this year so another possible strength for us to use to manufacture points and field position.

by Horncasting on Dec 21, 2011 9:21 AM CST reply actions

“You must have been really disinterested if you remember playing ASU in the Alamo Bowl. "

Exactly. That or I’m a dumbass and confuse Hawkeyes and Sun Devils. I should have remembered the correct bowl as my memory of Sally’s kid reaching for the fumble clearly shows him standing on natural leafy southern California grass, not the Alamodome turf.

by stuckinmn on Dec 21, 2011 9:58 AM CST reply actions

Thanks for the preview.

I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that the “traditional” media hasn’t discussed the connections between Tedford and Texas’ offensive scheme…since it is basically his. I have followed Tedford since his time as OC at Fresno State and OC at Oregon.

Tedford was the OC at Oregon from ‘98-’01. During that time his WR coach was Chris Petersen. After the ’01 season, Tedford left for Cal and Petersen for Boise. Harsin later took over for Petersen as OC at Boise. Having followed this over the years you can see that the offense Texas runs right now is very similar to what Fresno and Oregon ran under Tedford. It is one of the reasons I wanted Harsin to come to Texas because of the success and dynamics of the offense. What Kellen Moore has run at Boise the last four years looks almost exactly like Oregon under Harrington and Smith and Cal under Rogers and Boller.

In the last few years, Tedford has morphed his offensive a little, incorporating the spread for a running QB a couple of years ago (Harsin this year). At a minimum, he will have a good idea of what we want to do on offense.

by Boscogeorge on Dec 21, 2011 9:58 AM CST reply actions

Bottom line: our D should be able to hold Cal under 25, if the O amd ST don’t hand over the ball too often.

Can we score enough to cover that? Very much possible, but not if our O hasn’t improved since the last game. Certes, if our injured trio is in fact healed, that is a strong possibility, particularly if our QB is used as a run threat attacking the edges and passing accurately when that option looks best. Much, I believe, will depend on whether Mack can confine himself to clapping and eschew micro-management. Remains to be seen.

by Tex Long on Dec 21, 2011 10:13 AM CST reply actions

And by “the ball” I mean field position. Can’t be over-emphasized that running teams need to control field position, imo.

by Tex Long on Dec 21, 2011 10:15 AM CST reply actions

Bears vs bulls… ha ha. Maybe they could up the payout for this bowl if they could land a Wall Street bank sponsor instead of Bridgepoint Education.

by PoofyBevo on Dec 21, 2011 10:23 AM CST reply actions

very fair assessment. Cal has success when the run is used to dictate the pass. put the game on Maynard’s shoulders and Cal fans will get nervous. Same could be said of Texas in many ways. I don’t think Cal has much sucess running, which means our offense could be stunted mightily and a Maynardfest could give Texas the win.

of course, I think Cal’s defense can hold the Texas running game in check as well. Where does that leave us? Cripple fight.

by WestCoaster on Dec 21, 2011 10:58 AM CST reply actions

I realize we don’t have anyone behind him (Ash). My point is that he has got to show some progress in this game. The “he’s still young” excuse is about to be a season old. I’m not saying he has to go all VY out in California but he has got to at least be serviceable. If he’s not, we’ve really got to move on to Brewer or the Wishbone or something. (Kidding about the Wishbone.)

I wonder if the coaches have tempered the junior college QB search due to him looking good since the end of the season?

by Ty on Dec 21, 2011 2:08 PM CST reply actions

Is Ash starting? I thought the word was, ‘both will play’ — which I assumed would mean Case starts. Did I miss something?

I think Ash gives us the best chance to win provided, of course, that he is used correctly… I’m in full agreement with 55fordf150 and uthookem’s positions in that regard (as communicated above and through other posts)

by Cult McCoy on Dec 21, 2011 11:01 PM CST reply actions

Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I’m really just not worried about a run-based team against our defense unless it has some elite talent on the OL.
We handled UCLA and Missouri while totally burying the KSU attack. I have real difficulty seeing Cal get to 20 points without a lot of help from our offense.
If we can finally get back to the running game we had developed for Kansas and Tech this should be a pretty easy win. We were probably the 3rd best team in conference at that time.

by Nickel Rover on Dec 22, 2011 7:53 AM CST reply actions

nickel, I’d love to see the running game get back to what we had developed for Kansas and Tech if for no other reason than it would be great to have a big send-off for Fozzy…

Sans Fozzy, we’re not the same, but hopefully enough better than we have been lately that we can keep from shaming our defense.

by The Bobs on Dec 22, 2011 10:46 AM CST reply actions

Well, at least you didn’t compare our offense to a pack of clowns riding vespas.

So, that’s something, right?

by SoCal Oski on Dec 22, 2011 4:23 PM CST reply actions

http://www.wildanimalfightclub.com/lion-fight-tiger-vs-gorilla-attacks/bid/13078/Bull-vs-Bear
okay, can I go to the bookmaker with the confidence I gained from this information?

by Boogieman Peeps on Dec 22, 2011 5:39 PM CST reply actions

I think that’s a pretty fair summation. The only tweak I would make is that I think you underestimate Isi. And to be fair, I think Cal fans have underestimated him up until the last few games. In order to get to those impressive statistics, he’s had to put together a pretty good season. He doesn’t have Best’s speed, but he sure gets to the corners in a hurry. He might not break tackles, but he has great lateral movement and is hard to get your hands on.

by James415 on Dec 22, 2011 7:13 PM CST reply actions

Also, I spent a few days down in Austin last year and had a great time. Any town that takes its breakfast tacos that seriously is ok in my book.

by James415 on Dec 22, 2011 7:14 PM CST reply actions

Nice piece of work…you summed us up. My only comment would be that Sofele was a totally different player in the last 3 games, so your assessment of him may have underplayed his talents just a bit. Look forward to see you all in San Diego and sharing a few Shiners..Go Bears!

by TKE Prytanis 79 on Dec 23, 2011 8:02 AM CST reply actions

…and hey SoCalOski, I ride a Vespa..what’s your point dude?

by TKE Prytanis 79 on Dec 23, 2011 8:04 AM CST reply actions

I don’t have much confidence that Cal can effectively and consistently move the ball on the Texas D. But I think our defense matches up very well with the Texas offense as well. Stalemate IMO.

Scip,
When will the Cal Defense Preview be posted? Always enjoy reading your analysis.

by WestCoaster on Dec 23, 2011 1:39 PM CST reply actions

Generally every defense matches up fairly well with our offense. Unless our backs are healthy and you have small personnel that can’t play the run honestly, then we can make people look bad.

by Nickel Rover on Dec 23, 2011 1:57 PM CST reply actions