NBA On Christmas Day: Kevin Durant Is Officially On The Clock

by tjarks on Dec 22, 2011 5:26 PM CST in Texas Longhorns and Other Basketball

After a whirlwind free-agency process that saw the Dallas Mavericks lose Tyson Chandler and the LA Lakers lose Lamar Odom, Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder are the trendy pick to reach the NBA Finals.

The NBA's hype machine is already in full force, with everyone's favorite Longhorn scheduled to shoot a "Space Jam" type movie over the next year. But publicity brings expectations with it, and the knives are already being sharpened:

I always let LeBron know off top: they love you right now; they love you right now. But please believe me -- the first incident, the first time something happens -- they waiting man. They waiting. -- Allen Iverson, 2005

So far, Durant’s career trajectory has only been upwards: going from 20 wins as a rookie, to 23, 50 and now 55 wins last season. Most importantly, his Thunder teams have exceeded expectations in both their trips to the playoffs: battling the eventual-champion Lakers in a tough first-round series in 2010, making it to the Western Conference Finals in 2011.

It doesn’t matter how well Durant plays on the court or how well he conducts himself off it. If the Thunder don’t win a championship in the next three seasons, the same people who turned on LeBron will turn on Durant as well.

Durant, whose already made two All-NBA first teams before the age of 23, is far from a finished product. He can still improve his low-post game, his passing and his individual defense.

But if the Thunder are going to win the title, they're also going to need Serge Ibaka to hit perimeter jumpers, Kendrick Perkins to recover from the knee injury he suffered in the 2010 Finals and Russell Westbrook to learn to share the ball with James Harden.

Of course, no one wants to hear that. Perimeter superstars are like QB's: they get too much of the credit for victory and too much of the blame for defeat.

I can see the narrative already. Jason Whitlock and Bill Simmons have been pushing a silly "Avon/Stringer" story-line for Durant and Westbrook for over a year now.

** As an NBA writer, it's quite irritating that I can no longer reference "The Wire" without looking like a hack. It was a great show, but can we let it rest in peace without acting like it has all the answers to the world's questions in it? **

The Thunder are one of ten teams opening the NBA season on Christmas Day this year, with the head-liner being a rematch of last season's epic NBA Finals between Miami and Dallas:

Boston at New York, 11:00 AM, TNT:

The Carmelo trade is looking better by the day.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Boston's interior defense: Can Chris Wilcox, Brandon Bass and Jermaine O'Neal keep Tyson Chandler from dominating the offensive glass and Carmelo and Amare from putting them on a few posters? The Celtics season is going to depend on it.

2. New York's back-court: After amnestying Chauncey Billups to free up the cap space to sign Chandler, the Knicks will depend on a group of talented but untested youngsters (Toney Douglas, Landry Fields, Iman Shumpert and Bill Walker) and the decaying corpse of Mike Bibby to defend Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen and run Mike D'Antoni's offense.

** That is, until Baron Davis returns from his back injury. If he's healthy, which is a huge if, he could be a serious problem in the Big Apple. A top 10 talent. **

3. Boston's Big Three: Do KG, Paul Pierce and Allen have one more run left in them? Can they stay in front of players who were in middle school when they entered the NBA?

** Remember Avery Bradley? He could end up playing a huge role for them this season. He would have been a Top 10 pick if he had stayed an extra season. He had no reason to rush out of school; he wasn't someone like Cory Joseph who needed to take the money and run when he got a first-round promise **

Something To Tell A Family Member: Phil Jackson to the Knicks in 2013 makes a lot of sense for everyone.

Miami at Dallas, 1:30 PM, ABC:

Chris Bosh is 6'11 230 with a 7'3 wingspan and 30 inch vertical. Not that it matters.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Mavericks' centers: The cupboard isn't entirely bare in Dallas, as the Mavericks will need Brendan Haywood to earn the $55 million contract he got by playing with consistent effort on a nightly basis while staying mentally involved in the game. They've got three athletic 6'10+ players -- Ian Mahinmi, Brandan Wright and Sean Williams -- who could get minutes, and they might try to use Lamar Odom or Dirk as a small-ball 5.

2. The Miami front-court: There's no reason to not amnesty Mike Miller and sign Shane Battier if they weren't going to play in the fourth quarter, which means the Heat must be comfortable with Bosh and LeBron closing out games on the interior.

** Could there be a Dexter Pittman sighting? If they're seriously contemplating using a Joel Anthony/Eddy Curry platoon, what do they have to lose? **

3. Dallas' back-court rotation: There's been a lot of roster shuffling for the defending champions. Caron Butler, JJ Barea, DeShawn Stevenson, Peja Stojakovic and Corey Brewer are out; Vince Carter and Delonte West are in. Two young Mavericks -- Rodrigue Beaubois and Dominique Jones -- could get more minutes.

Something To Tell A Family Member: If Dallas amnesties Haywood and buys out Odom's team option, they have the cap room to get both Deron Williams and Dwight Howard next summer.

Chicago at LA Lakers, 4:00 PM, ESPN:

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Lakers' perimeter defense: The Derek Fisher/Steve Blake combo was exposed pretty badly by Jason Terry and Barea in last year's playoffs. Now they get to face off against the reigning MVP. LA might try to use Devin Ebanks, a second-year 6'9 forward out of West Virginia, on Derrick Rose.

2. Rip Hamilton: The former Detroit Piston was the Bulls' main off-season addition, and while he's an upgrade over Keith Bogans, it's hard to see him being enough to get them past Miami.

3. Pau Gasol vs. the Bulls front-line: The Lakers' Hall of Fame big man was the scapegoat last season after he was dominated by Dirk in the second round, and he's often been plagued by questions about his toughness in the low post in his time in LA. There isn't a better or tougher defensive trio at the 4/5 positions in the NBA than Joakim Noah, Omer Asik and Taj Gibson.

** Andrew Bynum, who may be LA's best player by the end of the season, is serving a five-game suspension for his cheap shot on Barea at the end of the Mavs/Lakers series. **

Something To Tell A Family Member: In their divorce proceedings, Vanessa Bryant accused Kobe of cheating on her 105 different times. He's going after all of Wilt's records!

Orlando at Oklahoma City, 7:00 PM, ESPN:

When healthy, Perkins has been Superman's Kryptonite.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Dwight Howard vs. Kendrick Perkins: The NBA's best center vastly improved his post game last season, and he should get a good test against Perkins, who handled him 1-on-1 in several Celtics/Magic series. He probably can't anymore, but the Thunder will be happy if he regains some of the lift in his legs.

2. The Thunder's young players: It's pretty scary when the four best players on a 55-win team all have significant room to improve their games.

3. Oklahoma City's offensive balance: The Thunder were plagued by an inability to space the floor or run offense through their big men in the 2011 WCF against Dallas. Now, with Westbrook, Harden and Ibaka on the verge of signing their first big contracts, will they be willing to sacrifice individual glory for team success?

Something To Tell A Family Member: The great "known unknown" for the NBA going forward is Dwight Howard's ultimate destination. On this, it all depends.

LA Clippers at Golden State, 9:30 PM, ESPN:

It's Lob City!

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Warriors rim defense: Golden State was apparently so unimpressed with Andris Biedrins they actually gave Kwame Brown $7 million this season. They had better hope former Baylor Bear Ekpe Udoh is ready to play or Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan will be the top 10 plays on Sportscenter Sunday night.

** It's not because Kwame is a quote-unquote good at basketball, it's because there aren't many athletic 6'10+ 250 pound human beings on the planet. Whatever guy the myth of Goliath is based on, I doubt he was bigger than Kwame Brown. That's why, all things being equal, a big man is always going to be worth more than a guard. **

2. The Clippers perimeter defense: With Chris Paul, who was playing on one knee most of last season, Chauncey Billups and Caron Butler all slated for big roles, LA is going to have their hands full against athletic slashers like Monta Ellis.

3. LA's bench: Because of the king's ransom they paid for Paul, which was a much better deal for New Orleans than the Lakers/Hornets package, they are going to have to depend on a lot of unproven youngsters -- Eric Bledsoe (whose out for six weeks after knee surgery) as well as Georgia rookies Travis Leslie and Trey Thompkins.

Something To Tell A Family Member: Grown men getting tea-bagged 10-12 feet in the air. Is that something you might be interested in?

Predictions:

** Written in pencil until the Howard sweepstakes are resolved. **

NBA Finals: Miami over Oklahoma City
MVP: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas
Defensive Player of the Year: Tyson Chandler, New York
Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland
Sixth Man: James Harden, Oklahoma City
Most Improved: Jrue Holiday, Philadelphia
Coach of the Year: Nate McMillan, Portland
Executive of the Year: David Stern, New Orleans

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Comments

When I pore over the Mavericks roster I notice that they are actually a really good looking team again. Losing Chandler is really rough, but Odom is a comparably good player if he doesn’t offer the same thing, and Vince Carter has always been productive, you just don’t want to rely on him in crunch time.

Really interested to see the Heat in their new offense and with Lebron’s new low-post game. I think my finals thoughts are identical to yours.

by Nickel Rover on Dec 22, 2011 5:50 PM CST reply actions

Love your Executive of the Year pick.

by TexanNick on Dec 22, 2011 8:37 PM CST reply actions

Nickel —

Yea, as a fan, I’m almost more excited to see how a front-court of Lamar Odom and Dirk is going to operate. A 6’10 point forward running a pick-and-roll with a 7’0 pure shooter is pretty absurd.

The question is going to be whether Dallas is better off going big with Odom at the 3 and possibly even using a zone to save his legs defensively or going small with a Dirk/Odom front-court. The good thing is there isn’t a better coach at playing match-ups than Rick Carlisle.

by tjarks on Dec 22, 2011 9:34 PM CST reply actions

without Chandler in the middle, Dallas goes back to being the all offense model that was never good enough to get over the hump. no repeat

by Noonan on Dec 23, 2011 1:55 AM CST reply actions

I think the Clippers actually have decent depth. Mo Williams, Randy Foye, and Ryan Gomes off the bench are pretty solid. Even Cook looks decent in the era of the stretch 4 when you surround him with all that talent (although I can totally see myself cringing when Jordan picks up his second foul with 5:41 left in the first quarter while hedging on a pick and roll against the Thunder in game 5 of the WCF leading to Cook playing extended minutes against Perkins/Ibaka). Basically, they just need some size off the bench. Maybe they could have used Kwame Brown har har.

by robin on Dec 23, 2011 1:57 AM CST reply actions

I love Dirk, but there’s no chance he nabs another MVP. I expect both he and the Mavs will hold back a bit until the playoffs roll around – lots of old legs out there.

by RD on Dec 23, 2011 3:25 AM CST reply actions

tjarks: A zone is probably a good call for them. Odom is a good rebounder, Marion is a good rebounder, Dirk has slipped there in his age but he isn’t horrendous, Kidd is a good rebounder.
The FIBA games seemed to demonstrate that NBA stars are eminently zonable. My own pick-up game is designed around the notion that no one whom I play with can pull up and hit a jumper or fire over a contest with anything near the consistency necessary to require a close stick.
That seems to be true for the most of the NBA as well.

Robin: I really like the new clippers as well. If Jordan and Griffin make some leaps they could be dominant. I think Chris Paul is one of the best 3 players in the game when healthy. Where do you have them getting stopped tjarks?

by Nickel Rover on Dec 23, 2011 7:32 AM CST reply actions

Great stuff, JT.

http://kevindurant35.com/2011/12/23/nike-zoom-kd-iv-christmas-cookie-cutter-colorway/

Nice…

by Drew Dunlevie on Dec 23, 2011 1:24 PM CST reply actions

The 2-7 spots in the West are pretty tightly packed; the Lakers, Clippers, Mavs, Spurs, Grizzlies and Blazers are all good teams. How the playoff bracket sets up, and the matchups between all six teams, will probably determine who comes out of that group.

For the Clippers, I’d worry about precisely the scenario Robin outlines, if Jordan gets in foul trouble in an important playoff game they have basically nothing behind him at the center position, and their four other starters — Paul, Billups, Butler and Griffin — need someone protecting the rim defensively.

by tjarks on Dec 23, 2011 1:26 PM CST reply actions

How has no one copyrighted Lob Angeles yet?

by Young Williams on Dec 23, 2011 2:06 PM CST reply actions

Great stuff, as always.

- Executive of the Year made me laugh.

- Because of the compressed schedule, several teams will sandbag during the year. It’s really about making the playoffs more than seed jostling. The greatest offenders will be the San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics, who will play just hard enough to avoid matching up against a 1 or 2 seed in the first round. False injury reports will abound. The gap in the West between seeds 2 and 6 will be tiny. So why wear out your guys?

- I liked the Wire a lot. But if it’s the Greatest Show Evarr, it can’t have entire seasons that were more or less throwaway. Which it did. Cue Wire sycophant attack!

- James Harden is the key to the Thunder taking the next step. Along with Scotty Brooks being fired. I singlehandedly managed to get OKC to get rid of Jeff Green (yes, I did this) and now all of my mental energies are on Scotty Brooks getting his papers. Scotty is the David Schwimmer character in Band of Brothers. Great for getting the platoon up to snuff in training phase, but you can’t take the guy into combat.

- A pissed off Eric Gordon averages 25+ ppg in New Orleans. No one notices except David Stern who rigs the All-Star voting.

- The Lakers struggle to go .500.

- Mark Jackson has decided that Golden State will adopt a “defensive mentality.” He hasn’t noticed that he doesn’t have a single defender on the roster and that he never played defense in his entire NBA career. So, good plan.

by Scipio Tex on Dec 23, 2011 3:07 PM CST reply actions

Scip —

Yea I absolutely love when people talk about “defensive mentality” when defense is primarily about being faster and longer than your opponent.

I think it was in ‘03 when the Mavs decided they were going to “concentrate on defense”; that’s not really going to matter until you bring in guys with defensive ability.

All you can reasonably ask Curry, Thompson and Lee to do is contest jumpers and send guys into the lane. That’s great if Tyson Chandler or Dwight Howard is your center; if it’s Kwame Brown … not so much.

by tjarks on Dec 23, 2011 3:17 PM CST reply actions

Great stuff. Completely agree with your Finals pick and loved the Exec dig.

The Mavs have some serious work to do integrating Odom. They look lost on offense and incapable on defense. Hard for me to believe that they let their best two defenders get away. Then again, maybe it’s all in the name of coasting through this year and then going hard after Howard and/or Williams.

I’m not a TV junkie, but sycophant or not, The Wire is the best show I’ve ever watched. I do not, however, buy into the Durant/Westbrook parallels. I’d say Harden is key for them, but I think we can count on him at this point. The key, as you point out, is Perkins getting closer to 100% and Ibaka giving them some offense.

by Hiphopopotamus on Dec 27, 2011 8:36 AM CST reply actions

I had the “pleasure” of attending the Mavs first two games at the AAC, and they just look way too old right now. They replaced the two youngest members of their rotation (Chandler, Barea) with two more 30+ guys (Odom, Carter); that’s not going to work, especially with Haywood “protecting the rim”. Dallas looked like they were in slow motion at times.

The Mavs are going to need big seasons from Delonte West, Rodrigue Beaubois and Sean “The Crab Man” Williams. Draw your own conclusions from that.

by tjarks on Dec 27, 2011 1:14 PM CST reply actions

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by худеем вместе с малышевой on Jan 31, 2012 12:58 PM CST reply actions